QLD’s Amazing Surge in Listings

There’s been a bit of talk about the Australian market recently, and after spotting something in the weekend.

Australian Property Portals do not make it easy to find out the number of properties for sale in a particular state, QLD in this case.

The best that one of the main Australian portals will inform me, is that they have found over 200+ homes that fit my search criteria of the whole state.

However Domain Property does return an actual figure, that surprise, surprise, does indeed show a similar figure to that quoted in the article.

By comparison, here in Nelson we have moved from around 310 properties in the market mid Aug to 327 properties on the market today in mid September. Not quite the same increase in magnitude I’d suggest.

Why the Australia bit……well even though at first it might not seem the case, there is a certain relevance to certain coastal areas of NZ. Its my belief that these coastal /seaside locations are generally brought by buyers locally for pretty much the same type of reasons/conditions/features/benefits that they are in Queensland, Australia.

What I should say, is other than local & organic growth.

So here I’m talking more about out-of towners, ex-pats, immigrants, locals returning to retire after decades away from the region, etc, and the buffer effect they can have on a region over and above its usual local/regional market.

Those looking for a sea-change, looking for retirement in a warmer climate, more sunny days, retiring to somewhere they have been coming with the family for the last 10 years each Xmas, etc. And lets not forget the Baby Boomers.

The above chart certainly indicates that First Home Buyers (FHBs) in Australia aren’t holding back, when compared in a historical sense.

And in related Australian news, tell me if these two statements sound familiar or even similar?

Despite the predicted pickup, the 162,850 housing starts in 2010/11 was still well shy of the estimated 190,000 new dwellings the HIA (Australia) says is needed to satisfy underlying demand.

~ compare to ~

In the year to July the number of dwelling consents stood at 13,954 which is the lowest since the 1960s and 38% down from a year earlier. On average NZ needs about 23,000 new dwellings to be built to accommodate average population growth.

which I propose paints a very similar picture to our situation here in NZ.


Well see if this chart doesn’t suggest some similarities over the past couple of years between our two countries.

Hate to harp on, but as I have said before it’s about immigration & unemployment, or put another way supply and demand……the good professor has a neat 3 part series here about home prices, where you will note he dwells on that supply & demand issue a bit.

Quite frankly its pretty plain to see above that consents are in no way keeping up with sales, to an extent we haven’t seen in years.

One of the major concerns many have is the general time lag between a consent being approved and the dwelling being completed, commonly accepted as a 12-18 month time frame.

As an example small WA projects like “Gorgon” will definitely accelerate that skills shortage.

And as the copy above states many more skilled workers will be required across the ditch, just for this one project. And as the Courier Mail in QLD reported recently

“We expect to run into a situation of skill shortages. A number of significant mining ventures that were put on hold are coming back on line.”

If that is the case this time, and Australia does hit its straps in 2010/11 as many are suggesting, then we could well see a tradesman shift to “greener pastures” (aka more money) at a time when we will need it most here in NZ. Its predicted both countries are going to experience a skills shortage.

It’ll come at a time when we will have two fevers going locally, 1) Rugby World Cup and 2) if it gets to the screens in time, the first of the Hobbit movies. I’ve always contended that in amongst all the other so called “housing boom” factors last time around, that the LOTR’s effect was very understated. It certainly wasn’t by Tourism NZ with the 100% message running on the back of the Rings. Many immigrants loved the scenery they saw, and I believe they will equally love the scenery that will surely flow with the two Hobbit movies.

So whatever is happening in Queensland I think both Dr Bollard and Mr English are hoping we don’t catch too much of it over here.

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0 thoughts on “QLD’s Amazing Surge in Listings

  1. avatarReynaldo Orlas

    When you use the phrase “labor shortage” or “skills shortage” you’re speaking in a sentence fragment. What you actually mean to say is: “There is a labor shortage at the salary level I’m willing to pay.” That statement is the correct phrase; the complete sentence and the intellectually honest statement.

    Employers speak about shortages as though they represent some absolute, readily identifiable lack of desirable services. Price is rarely accorded its proper importance in their discussion.

    If you start raising wages and improving working conditions, and continue doing so, you’ll solve your shortage and will have people lining up around the block to work for you even if you need to have huge piles of steaming manure hand-scooped on a blazing summer afternoon.

    Re: Shortage caused by employees retiring out of the workforce: With the majority of retirement accounts down about 50% or more, most people entering retirement age are working well into their sunset years. So, you won’t be getting a worker shortage anytime soon due to retirees exiting the workforce.

    Okay, fine. Some specialized jobs require training and/or certification, again, the solution is higher wages and improved benefits. People will self-fund their re-education so that they can enter the industry in a work-ready state. The attractive wages, working conditions and career prospects of technology during the 1980’s and 1990’s was a prime example of people’s willingness to self-fund their own career re-education.

    There is never enough of any good or service to satisfy all wants or desires. A buyer, or employer, must give up something to get something. They must pay the market price and forego whatever else he could have for the same price. The forces of supply and demand determine these prices — and the price of a skilled workman is no exception. The buyer can take it or leave it. However, those who choose to leave it (because of lack of funds or personal preference) must not cry shortage. The good is available at the market price. All goods and services are scarce, but scarcity and shortages are by no means synonymous. Scarcity is a regrettable and unavoidable fact.

    Shortages are purely a function of price. The only way in which a shortage has existed, or ever will exist, is in cases where the “going price” has been held below the market-clearing price.