Daily Archives: September 21, 2009

QLD’s Amazing Surge in Listings

There’s been a bit of talk about the Australian market recently, and after spotting something in the weekend.

Australian Property Portals do not make it easy to find out the number of properties for sale in a particular state, QLD in this case.

The best that one of the main Australian portals will inform me, is that they have found over 200+ homes that fit my search criteria of the whole state.

However Domain Property does return an actual figure, that surprise, surprise, does indeed show a similar figure to that quoted in the article.

By comparison, here in Nelson we have moved from around 310 properties in the market mid Aug to 327 properties on the market today in mid September. Not quite the same increase in magnitude I’d suggest.

Why the Australia bit……well even though at first it might not seem the case, there is a certain relevance to certain coastal areas of NZ. Its my belief that these coastal /seaside locations are generally brought by buyers locally for pretty much the same type of reasons/conditions/features/benefits that they are in Queensland, Australia.

What I should say, is other than local & organic growth.

So here I’m talking more about out-of towners, ex-pats, immigrants, locals returning to retire after decades away from the region, etc, and the buffer effect they can have on a region over and above its usual local/regional market.

Those looking for a sea-change, looking for retirement in a warmer climate, more sunny days, retiring to somewhere they have been coming with the family for the last 10 years each Xmas, etc. And lets not forget the Baby Boomers.

The above chart certainly indicates that First Home Buyers (FHBs) in Australia aren’t holding back, when compared in a historical sense.

And in related Australian news, tell me if these two statements sound familiar or even similar?

Despite the predicted pickup, the 162,850 housing starts in 2010/11 was still well shy of the estimated 190,000 new dwellings the HIA (Australia) says is needed to satisfy underlying demand.

~ compare to ~

In the year to July the number of dwelling consents stood at 13,954 which is the lowest since the 1960s and 38% down from a year earlier. On average NZ needs about 23,000 new dwellings to be built to accommodate average population growth.

which I propose paints a very similar picture to our situation here in NZ.

Why?

Well see if this chart doesn’t suggest some similarities over the past couple of years between our two countries.

Hate to harp on, but as I have said before it’s about immigration & unemployment, or put another way supply and demand……the good professor has a neat 3 part series here about home prices, where you will note he dwells on that supply & demand issue a bit.

Quite frankly its pretty plain to see above that consents are in no way keeping up with sales, to an extent we haven’t seen in years.

One of the major concerns many have is the general time lag between a consent being approved and the dwelling being completed, commonly accepted as a 12-18 month time frame.

As an example small WA projects like “Gorgon” will definitely accelerate that skills shortage.

And as the copy above states many more skilled workers will be required across the ditch, just for this one project. And as the Courier Mail in QLD reported recently

“We expect to run into a situation of skill shortages. A number of significant mining ventures that were put on hold are coming back on line.”

If that is the case this time, and Australia does hit its straps in 2010/11 as many are suggesting, then we could well see a tradesman shift to “greener pastures” (aka more money) at a time when we will need it most here in NZ. Its predicted both countries are going to experience a skills shortage.

It’ll come at a time when we will have two fevers going locally, 1) Rugby World Cup and 2) if it gets to the screens in time, the first of the Hobbit movies. I’ve always contended that in amongst all the other so called “housing boom” factors last time around, that the LOTR’s effect was very understated. It certainly wasn’t by Tourism NZ with the 100% message running on the back of the Rings. Many immigrants loved the scenery they saw, and I believe they will equally love the scenery that will surely flow with the two Hobbit movies.

So whatever is happening in Queensland I think both Dr Bollard and Mr English are hoping we don’t catch too much of it over here.

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