Archive for May 21st, 2009

The Kiwi love affair with housing – a perspective

In Business Day & the Dom Post on Thursday morning, David Hargreaves puts forward a couple of interesting observations regarding the Kiwi psyche in an article headed “Everythings on the House”.

Hargreaves noted that “house prices have been knocked backward by around 10 percent from their peak.” and…

“But this has been a much more resilient response than in many countries.”

He also states his belief by saying…..”I never thought house prices would fall as much as historical studies of economic relativity (ratio of income to price of house etc, etc) suggested they needed to fall by.”

Much of this is in stark contrast to the “30-35%” figure we have been continually reminded off by certain quarters.

In attempting to explain even further why, David puts forward the following argument…..

Do you know why not?

Because Kiwis were never going to let it happen. The house as the number one (if not the only) means of investment is so ingrained in this country that you get the impression some people might have been more prepared to Bungy jump nude from the Auckland Skytower during rush hour than to take a loss on their house. Now, obviously some people were ultimately forced to take losses, but there’s been a battle to keep prices up that goes somewhere beyond normal economic ebb and flow. The price of houses has become more discussed, arguably, than it was in the gloating “how much is yours worth” days of 2005-06.

Where this leads us I believe is to a situation in which housing will be even more of a national obsession than it was before. It will be the number 1,2,3 and 4 investment option. And that’s bad.

In perspective we know that Real Estate watching is Kiwi’s second most popular spectator sport so they are interesting comments.

Now the reporter ends this comment above by saying “that’s bad.” And he goes on further in this article to mentioned the dreaded 3 word combination , Capital Gains Tax.

Too that I say bad on him, (bad as the item above) instead of adding his support to that arena, how about looking into the indebtedness of ALL Kiwis, and perhaps look to abolish tax on interest earned in a bank account (that you have, in most cases, already paid tax on to earn!) or at the least have a tax free $20-30K limit or similar threshold (100% non taxable limit) after which tax is then calculated on the rest.

Across the board.

It’s just that I really haven’t seen many things lately that give me the appearance of encouraging money in the bank. In fact far from it, and even touched on in the above mentioned article is the total disappointment from those whom are reliant on interest from their savings to provide a steady income.

Food for thought?

SOURCE INFO – STUFF.CO.NZ – “Everythings on the House” – By David Hargreaves – The Independent

May 21 2009 | Buyers and Nelson and New Zealand and Sellers | No Comments »

NZ Immigration shows upturn in April 09

To the tune of 500 more permanent arrivals per week than departures in April.

Not a big number you might say in US or English terms, but remember our little part of the world accounts for something like 0.064% of the planets population, so in light of the current climate, even a number like this is notable.

I have contended for a while now the two real dynamics over the next few quarters will be the ongoing immigration & unemployment situation.

Statistics NZ report today that on

A seasonally adjusted basis, PLT arrivals exceeded PLT departures by 2,200 in April 2009, up from 1,700 in March 2009 and 1,600 in February 2009. These figures are all well above the average of 400 recorded for the 25-month period from January 2007–2009.

And as a result they state there was an annual net gain of 9,200 in the April 2009 year, up from 4,700 in the April 2008 year.

Contrary to what was earlier anticipated, they report that there wasn’t much variation to numbers of returning NZ citizens. By mentioning no perceptible difference on this front it is still a bit of an unknown.

Why do I say unknown, simply because of the fact that NZ has such an incredibly high percentage of its citizens in an ex-pat capacity offshore at any one given moment in time.

Should, in light of global fiscal eventualities, or other local or world event,  a percentage of them consider to want to move back home, then a different outcome than that which normal economic forecasting would more than likely result.

So I will be anxiously awaiting further Immigration updates from Stats NZ as the year progress.

May 21 2009 | New Zealand | No Comments »