Daily Archives: April 11, 2009

UK site tests new Potential Housing Price Predictor?

In NZ we have interest.co.nz’s affordability series, we also have the various weekly analysis’ from most major bank economists, Statistics NZ periodic releases, industry REINZ data series, QV’s monthly updates, realestate.co.nz’s new monthly update series, plus umpteen other media reports dissecting these and adding their own flavours each week on the state of the property market, and lately, that of what would appear to be the game of guessing fixed or floating rate mortgages.

However most of them, if not all, and on a scientific basis there’s obviously no other way, use past data sometimes up to a month or two old, to support their stances to assist NZ buyers & sellers plan for the future.

Where there is really tremendous value though, is in current data, as in 1-30 days old, or even real-time.  (Location based GPS technology will show that up, but that’s for another post)

In time I’m sure we’ll see systems taking more advantage of that, and I guess the Internet will play a major role in that.

With a breath of fresh air (although not locally in NZ I admit) its nice to see someone stick there head up and say, based on all this data, this is what we are actually predicting the price to be.

By focusing on the esoteric sounding Kalman Filter, and other mathematical expressions, estimation formulas, projections & trajectorys, UK site HousePrices are currently developing something you’ll just love, their experimental Housing Price Predictor. (as its a UK chart above prices are in English Pounds)

In there you’ll find this interesting statement;

Also included is the house price trajectory implied by the currrent buy & sell prices from financial spreadbetting data (Cantor Spreadfair, house price spreadbetting) and residential property derivatives trading (Tradition, Future HPI).

Horses, Rugby, outcome of a boxing match, I can understand, but betting on housing, I think it’s just as well we don’t have that here yet?

Its not stretching the realms of possibility too far to say that many Kiwis already do that anyway, but on a personal basis.

Well, yes in these uncertain times, exposure to wild market fluctuations could easily decimate any companies balance sheet, let alone a betting organisations balance sheet, and so it would seem that Cantor have closed down online spreadbetting, meaning HousePrices.co.uk now have to rely on data from Tradition Property Derivatives.

I’m sure banks and finance companies already do this predicting of house prices internally, is it time for a similar predictor here in NZ? Sure would generate some clicks I would think.

GRAPHIC SOURCE – houseprices.uk.net