Archive for February, 2009
Here’s a independent weather site based in Nelson, with plenty of extra weather data for the technical types out there, and they have another webcam, at the bottom of the main weather page, viewing the region too. (UPDATE – above sites webcam appears to be non-operational as at Oct 09)
Curious what Radio Stations serve our region?
As national Networking is quite a common theme, unfortunately not all of these stations broadcast with a 100% local content. In many cases you may have to select “Nelson” from a REGION drop down box to get to local info / content. Some broadcast live and some don’t.
February 28 2009 | Nelson | No Comments »
Its the topic on everyone’s lips this week, at the petrol station, at the coffee shop, at the local council, at New World Supermarket, etc.
We have heard Tony Alexander, the BNZ’s chief economist chip in with the following advice…. “buyers should be seeking a mortgage interest rate of 5.5% fixed for five years.”
However almost in the same breath he makes the following comment…
“but as I wait for this rate, I’ll become increasingly prepared to accept something just below 6% just in case the world suddenly looks like a brighter place”
I remember being told back in October last year if you can get a fixed rate in the low 6’s go for it, don’t hesitate. So I’m watching with baited breath to see what the outcome for 3 – 4 – 5 year fixed rates will be after RBNZ’s March 12th OCR annoucement. And only then will some Kiwi’s find out if they missed the boat while it was in port.
Someone commented this week that we are near the bottom on these fixed rates, so time will tell if they’re right. However I can tell you there are plenty of signs that buyers are now actively taking advantage of these lower interest rates. (check out this weeks Summit Weekly Comment here)
The NZ Herald reported Wednesday, (as Alistair has commented on along with some informative graphs, over at Unconditional Blog) that Robert Mellor, managing director of BIS Shrapnel, reportedly said “prices in the Auckland housing market will bottom out by May this year, and should return to growth by 2010.”
In Australia BIS Shrapnels Dr Gelber has been much bolder regarding his own home market ….“Meanwhile, we’ve seen the bottom of the residential cycle, the next stage is an upswing, probably next year, building momentum into what will become a boom.”
And in continuing info that could rebound on Kiwi’s that have crossed the ditch…Dr Gelber states….
BIS Shrapnel notes Australia would normally see a quick rebound as lower interest rates pump income into the mortgage belt, confidence recovers, undersupplied housing markets rebound and households start to spend again, particularly with the government cash injections.
“But this time, weak exports, the fall in commodity prices and the shock to demand have hit the financial viability of projects,” he says “Meanwhile, the continuing credit squeeze and constraints on equity funding mean there is little finance available for new projects. And that has slaughtered business investment.”
The company notes property development has already been hit. Minerals investment will also fall sharply – BIS Shrapnel’s current forecast is for a fall of 50 per cent, with the possibility it could be worse.
I feel some of those items ring a bell here too.
However, even with the aid of historical data / trends, and computer modeling, forecasting is still a prediction business after all.
Many Kiwi’s who went searching for big money mining jobs may not find the grass over in OZ greener this year. I’ve previously posted on this general theme here & here.
The NZ Herald also quoted Property author and advocate Kieran Trass as saying;
“Auckland flats are the first category of property this decade to emerge as cashflow-positive – paying you to own them – because of interest rates and property prices.”
In the same article Strategic Risk Analysis economist Rodney Dickens, of Whangarei, chipped in with “the market was eroding the benefits of renting a house, and it now made more sense to buy.”
Although on the supply side the numbers are not stacking up positively for buyers looking for new builds, especially so locally.
Statistics NZ report…
Residential buildings contributed 48 percent to the total value of all buildings in January 2009, while non-residential buildings contributed 52 percent. This is the first month since June 1998 that residential buildings have contributed less than non-residential buildings.
And just to place consents into perspective, they say “The seasonally adjusted number of new dwellings authorised, excluding apartments, fell 8.2 percent in January 2009. This series has been falling in recent months and is now at its lowest level since the series began 17 years ago.” …… and …….”812 new dwellings, including apartments, were authorised, the lowest recorded since this series began in April 1965.”
Its interesting to note on the above chart the incredibly low consent rate for Nelson in Jan 2009, with Tasman not exactly setting the world on fire either.
Certainly with the stricter lending policies from the banks, coupled with stronger adherence to tighter LVR levels, there is the possibility that extra pressure may come to bear on existing housing, particularly in the Nelson region, less so in the Tasman district.
I cast my mind back to the end of the 80’s when I was paying 19% interest, and the concern that it was a stretch for a one income family then. Fast forward to the 2000’s and it’s almost a given that any younger couple moving into a newer home are banking on dual incomes to pay off the mortgage. Back in the 80’s it was possible for the other partner to find employment or even for the one income earner there was the possibility of a secondary job.
I do not think that type of opportunity will present itself this time around. Frankly its quite obvious that a 6% rate over 5 years is still a pretty decent base from which to conduct long range budgets on.
Undoubtedly all of this hinges on employment, and our own NZ Realtors partner in Auckland, Barfoot & Thompson, said through director Peter Thompson, when speaking to the NZ Herald, the following advice…….
* Be cautious about borrowing – don’t get a loan for any more than 85 per cent of a property’s worth
* Fix a mortgage for the longest-term possible, up to five years if you can.
* Don’t over-commit – buy in an affordable suburb then move to your “wish suburb” a few years later.
Speaking with a lender earlier in the week, it was indicated that the other brokers from his company all had each, on average, over 30 pre-approval certificated buyers running around in the region, and based on that, definitely also have intent.
In summing up, the best words I read this week came from that BNZ man again, Tony Alexander when he said..
“As long as I figured on keeping my job I would be out there actively looking for a property at the moment,”
SOURCE – NZ HEARLD / Statistics NZ
February 27 2009 | Buyers and Mortgages Finance Money and Nelson | No Comments »
Want a good priced short break?
Accor.co.nz manage the new multi-million dollar recently opened Grand Mercure Nelson Monaco Resort / Apartments complex near the coastline just down the road from our office. Photo right, shows the resort with the award winning “Orangerie Restaurant” in front right overlooking a pond.
They, Accor, have just announced a 1,000,000 room three day sale over many countries and NZ happens to be one of them, and the prices are good.
If you were looking to visit Nelson over the period from 1 April to 31 July 09, then head on over to their site and get booking, I guess there’s only a limited supply but the rates are super saving style.
Perfect House Hunting Trip Excuse right here?
If you were looking to visit on a house hunting expedition arriving on a Friday night, and leaving on a Sunday night after the Open Homes (we can still do home buying paperwork by fax / email don’t forget) then the example illustrated here demonstrates the type of deal that can be had.
Start your research now, and give yourself a restful break in Nelson. Flights won’t be a problem as we are the 4th busiest airport in New Zealand.
In fact if you keep an eye out on Air New Zealand’s GrabaSeat site you might even be able to combine your break with a score on a low airfare. (looks like Auckland to Nelson was $49 at 9am today – but probably all gone by now?)
But…if you were quick – $49 each way x 4 + $158 for 2 nights in the resort = $354.00 for a short break (excluding food) for 2 people, pretty good overall value I’d say …the resort even have a courtesy coach for airport transfers.
Their web site says this sale is only on for three days.
February 25 2009 | Nelson | No Comments »
ASB steps up to the plate.
Charles Pink, the CEO of ASB, in launching the new $1bn loan fund, has stated “The focus of the lending pool is to assist businesses to take advantage of opportunities to create new jobs, or to prevent a business having to cut jobs”
He went on further…
“If a business is prepared to invest in its future, and create or protect employment, then ASB is saying it is prepared to back them with an attractive lending rate.”
If a loan applicant can demonstrate their loan will benefit, by creating employment, or prevent people from losing their jobs, then the applicant is encouraged to apply for one of these special loans.
ASB has said the special $1 billion loan fund for qualifying New Zealand businesses, is there to allow borrowing at rates that are below market percentages. The projected opening rate for the loan is 5% per annum, a figure that ASB says is 0.95% below their current 2 year fixed housing rate.
At the same time, in related news, New Zealanders will also be given the opportunity to share in this job creation initiative by depositing funds with ASB in a special Job Creation Term Deposit. The interest rate on the loans and the term deposit will be reviewed weekly, but will always be the same. The rate will be fixed at the time of approval and will apply for a 2 year term.
And theres always some conditions….[brief conditions here...see link below for full details]
To be eligible for the loans, borrowers will need to meet ASB’s normal business lending criteria plus demonstrate the employment benefits of their proposal.
Loans made from the $1B pool will be available only to existing businesses for new lending. Both current ASB business customers and new customers can apply. The loans are for a minimum of $100,000 and a maximum of $10 million and will need to be fully drawn down within 60 days of being approved. Applications to refinance existing borrowings will not qualify for a Job Creation Loan.
FULL RELEASE & DETAILS HERE….
February 24 2009 | Nelson | No Comments »
New Zealand’s official Taxation Collector, Inland Revenue, has released a press statement warning apartment investors, in regards to the selling of their leased apartments.
Thinking of selling your leased apartment?
Avoid an unexpected GST bill by making sure you’re aware of all the tax issues before you make a decision about the future of your investment apartment.
Find out more about GST on rental apartments including what it means for an apartment to be zero-rated for GST, and tax issues to consider if you want to sell a zero-rated apartment or change its use.
Mr Philp the departments Assurance Manager said in the press release ‘People who bought an apartment with a managed lease should talk to a tax advisor before making a decision about selling it or changing its use” and he went on to say “many people paid no GST when they bought an apartment, but may be faced with a large GST bill when they want to sell the apartment.”
Again direct from Inland Revenue….
GST on rental apartments
Many people have bought apartments where the purchase included a lease to a management company, often with a guaranteed rental arrangement.
In many cases these apartments were sold as “going concerns” with the GST charged at 0%, or “zero-rated”.
There are conditions attached to this type of apartment. You need to know what they are or you might get an unexpected GST bill when you sell your apartment.
Further info here, and you can download an information booklet here
February 23 2009 | Nelson | No Comments »
Eight days ago the Sunday Star Times headlined their paper with a feature article banner …..
Mortgagee Sale Rise “Frightening”
As of this morning Nelson / Tasman, realestate.co.nz shows 891 listings in our region. After typing mortgagee into the search box, the graphic shows the result.
So that’s 2 out of 891, but wait one of those is actually not, it’s just an agent using poetic license. So its just 1 out of 891 listings currently for sale.
A quick check over at trademe shows 974 listings, which after doing the same search, I discover 1 mortgagee sale, and that is for a section, not a house.
And I don’t know about you, but for me this is not a frightening figure. So let’s take those two real mortgagee sales, and we see that it represents 0.2% of the total listings.
For a good brief and some associated comments check out this post here.
And just to put it into some perspective, Radio New Zealand made the following comment a week ago…..
The region with the highest listings was Auckland. The regions with the least were: Hawke’s Bay, Marlborough, Taranaki and the West Coast.
So what are the numbers; {data from www.realestate.co.nz as at 23-02-09}
Hawke’s Bay 3 out of 1651 listings
Marlborough 4 out of 869 listings
Taranaki 1 out of 865 listings
West Coast 2 out of 798 listings
Nelson 1 out of 891 listings
To be sure, listening to radio, reading the papers and articles on the net, and watching TV sometimes, the general trend being reported is of a forecast for things like unemployment to get worse than currently.
However, newspapers do owe some responsibility & associated credibility to their buying public, and in my eyes, our Nelson numbers plus the ones above don’t shout at me “frightening.” And using a figure of a 231% increase is the sort of stuff that in my personal opinion is not really painting a perspective of the story in provincial NZ. And thats relevant to me, after all thats where I live.
February 23 2009 | Nelson | No Comments »
Solar is gaining traction worldwide and with the amount and intensity that beams down on our region for an average of just under 7 hours a day, this initiative just makes sense.
In case you weren’t aware, Nelson is still the current holder of the NZ national record for sunshine, in one month @ 336 hrs, and the highest amount in one year @ 2711 hours.
As an example if you’re standing still in one spot, like these folk, then today, you’d last only a bit over 10 minutes before you would start to see the effects of sunburn.
And certainly our farmers couldn’t live without it.
The following press release comes via Scoop….
Developers of Nelson Solar City have announced the next stage of their project with the launch of a pilot scheme involving 25 homes and businesses.
Energyshift, which is leading the development, says the pilot scheme is the next step in testing the Solar City concept, which aims to see solar water heating installed on 1000 Nelson homes and businesses.
The scheme will use smart software to monitor and improve the performance of solar hot water systems, as well as provide financing options to make solar water heating more accessible, says Energyshift’s Andrew Booth.
The Nelson Mail reports here and TV3 has an item here too.
Full Article here
February 21 2009 | Nelson | No Comments »
According to my email inbox, the latest National Bank “Regional Trends” report shows that as an aggregate, all South Island regions recorded an upside to their economic activity in the last three months by a factor of 0.9%. This compares favourably with our cousins up North, across Cook Strait, who only managed to show an overall 0.3% decrease.
As an example, Nelson/Marlborough rose 1.7% while Wellington recorded an opposing 1.5% negative growth. On the face of it, not incredible figures per se, but taken in the context that it was only a quarter, telling figures still the same.
National Bank reported…….
“Nelson-Marlborough recorded the largest rise in the number of residential building permits issued in the December quarter, up 17 percent from September and contrasting a 9 percent decline nationally. The number of consents issued for commercial construction work increased 5.8 percent, outstripping a 1.1 percent drop nationally. Employment in the region grew 2.9 percent, to hit a new record high. Consumer confidence was the joint second highest across the regions – representing the region’s highest relative ranking since March 2000.”
Reading that again, you’ll forgive me if I can’t find too many negatives locally.
Then again, could a 500% increase in commercial consents, and a corresponding 300% increase in residential consents be just a fluke?
And considering that I have written upo sales of nearly $800,000 worth of property in the last 5 days, I can certainly vouch for the fact that an upturn in confidence locally is evident. How long will it last, well ASB increasing fixed rates again, while at the same time Kiwibank reduce their variable rate yet again, and notably to a historically low figure [for Kiwibank at least] of under 6%, well it’s anyone’s guess.
February 20 2009 | General and Nelson | No Comments »
I believe many folk are asking questions of returns, especially money that’s sitting in a bank account, the question I hear a lot asking, is, in a term I saw somewhere on the web and I’ll copy it here….
Cash in the bank or Cash in a Property.
Data up to last night still shows quite a bit of red, however this isn’t ably assisted by the data showing that 2/3rds exactly of Nelson sales so far are in the below $300,000 category. At this rate we will be heading for another Headline in the papers.
After a few quite months, quite quiet historically, and that’s mirrored in building consents too, it’s debatable whether we are seeing the first signs of seasoned investors dipping their feet back in the water, or first home buyers out there also competing with those investors. Current interest rates undoubtedly have something to do with it too.
And its also interesting to note that sixty percent of Nelson home sales so far this month, in the under $300,000 category, are from 2 bedroom units. townhouses & homes.
February 19 2009 | Nelson | No Comments »
We all know New Zealand is full of stunning scenery, and I think that exposure to that is partly one of the reasons why I believe many Kiwi’s are visual people, or at the least, wear it on their collar with pride. [you'll find many Kiwi's occupying positions in advertising companies overseas]
I don’t know of too many Kiwis, when given the choice, would decide to live in a concrete jungle forever.
Yes they might go to the UK or USA chasing the career ladder or dollars, but for many and I would suggest most, there comes a time when home calls, and the NZ scenery plays its part in that.
In the last post, you read what Richardson & Wrench are doing in Mosman, Sydney in regards to attracting buyers by offering a persuasive visual experience, combined with proven exclusive Internet based campaigns
A friend in QLD has just emailed me a link that shows that a couple of agents over there have discovered HD video for Real Estate. [I'm not aware of anyone yet in NZ, but if you know, I'd love to be directed to somewhere I can see their work]
There’s no doubt this is the future, and yet another reason why faster internet is required in NZ for everyone, if you look at one of these clips here you’ll see what I mean.
On a side note, it is intriguing to see that although the photographer is an Open2view franchise owner, it would appear that he’s jumped on the bandwagon a bit early for Open2view, as they don’t seem to have the current capability of hosting these videos at this stage, and therefore an outside host is presently being utilized. Undoubtedly watching HD Video would heavily influence a sites traffic statistics considerably, many multiples of bandwidth volume above just watching static photos.
Obviously, from the expense of something like a Sony Z1 or equivalent, maybe extra lens or lights, software to post produce, the ability to do so, etc there surely is some expense & talent involved, but in the short to medium term this is the way to go to ensure a property stands out. Even downloading one of these videos from Vimeo turned out to be 20mb, but at 1280 x 720 resolution it looks fabulous on a large monitor. And would surely look brillant on a 42″ plasma. Run off a Notebook with HDMI output something like this would make a fabulous background / backdrop at an Open Home on the vendors large plasma / or LCD [obviously with their approval, and an HDMI input on the TV]
Interesting to note that although Allan [according to profile data] has only joined Vimeo in January 2009, out of the 4 videos [in Flash ] he has there, Harcourts have one just uploaded in the last 24 hours and Ray White obviously commissioned him to put together an auction one and a ReMax agent has also one of the others to feature a listing of his [& a bit of self-promotion].
I note that although Open2View NZ Virtual tours utilize Quicktime VR, it must only be a matter of time before we see more NZ based photographer /videographer’s offering HD services at mainstream prices? [logically, conditional upon amount of production]
February 17 2009 | Sellers and photography | No Comments »
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