Immigration – could 2009 surprise?
One of the last of 2008’s WBC’s weekly commentaries makes some predictions about migration for 2009.
And as the chart shows when we are at such a low figure it doesn’t ordinarily stay that way for long, and usually pounces one way or the other quite a bit. Very possibly other economic and related fundamental’s come into play in affecting this.
“We expect November 2008 to be the low-point for annual net migration. For the past 18 months migration figures have been dominated by a large outflow of NZers to Australia. Inflows from other countries to NZ barely exceeded the outflow to Australia, keeping the overall net migration figure low but positive.”
“…and one of the dream employment fields for many younger Kiwi’s, mining jobs in Australia, may be impacted…..”
- We forecast net migration of 15,000 in 2009, much stronger than 2008. The pull-factor from Australia’s mining regions is waning as world commodity prices fall. And we fully expect an influx of Kiwis to return home from countries that have been hit harder by the credit crunch, such as UK.
They also go on to say…
“…… as we head into 2009 a housing shortage could develop. Building consents indicate that very few houses will be built over the next six months. But New Zealand might experience an increase in net migration as the economic slowdown in Australia reduces the flow of Kiwis across the Tasman and the parlous economic situation in the UK sends Kiwis there scurrying home (which is what happened during the last global slowdown).”
In ANZ’s year end commentaries they say….
“Net Migration – October. For the second month in a row, net migration was effectively flat. A net 10 people permanently migrated to New Zealand in October, and this fully offsets a net 10 people who permanently left the country in September – the first monthly net fall in migration since July 2005. On an annual basis, net migration sits at 4,329 and although positive, is far from a level that will be overly supportive for the local housing market.”
NAB’s December 08 view is longer term…[more of the economy, NAB doesn't appear to have stuck its neck out on immigration figures, maybe relying on relaying its parent ANZ's info]
“The economy is reflating, both via aggressive loosening in financial conditions such as interest rates and the currency, but also – and critically – through a much stronger focus on productivity growth across the business sector. A stronger global economy is a critical part of any recovery, with the holy grail of economics for the economy to be built around earning as opposed to spending our way to growth. This is looking like a late 2010 story. The Rugby World Cup is also around the corner, and a weaker global scene looks set to turn New Zealanders back home (or at least keep a few from departing!). When combined with a degree of pent up demand – which is typical when the economy wraps itself in cotton wool in response to global developments – we fully expect 2011 to be a boomer of a year with 4 percent growth.”
But balance that by saying ………..
“All the bad news can become overpowering but we need to be mindful of the trend. Stepping beyond the business cycle, we need to appreciate the strong medium-term story for the economy. The massive wealth shift occurring around the globe that is seeing Asia grow in importance, can only be good news for NZ. While commodity prices are going through a corrective phase at present, we remain long-term commodity bulls. Asia looks set to remain a key engine for global growth over the next decade and given NZ’s close proximity (and an exporter of products that Asia is increasingly demanding) we stand to benefit. Throw in water’s ever increasing importance, a natural resource base, and there is huge potential for NZ to leverage; just not in our usual borrow and spend sense.”
And as for the BNZ, they had this to say…[BNZ Strategist 18-12-08]
We’re still of the view that the global economic shakedown could fuel an influx of new arrivals (and fewer departees) over the coming period.
I’ve highlighted with a chart in a previous post the dramatic effect a short term increase in migration has on the Nelson / Tasman region, so it will be a trend to watch with interest in 2009.
December 30 2008 08:47 am | Nelson and The Market
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