All across Auckland, in many price ranges, the number of properties being sold by auction is significantly increasing. I often get comments from people wishing there were more asking prices so that we could all know what the owner wants. It is not about what the owner wants it is about what buyers would pay for a property.
The reason for more auctions is simply that owners are often getting better selling prices for their properties. We would all like to buy things cheaper than they are worth – that is human nature. We would, if we had no competition, love to buy our next house cheaper than it is worth. But by creating competition amongst buyers it is possible to establish the price they would really pay rather than what buyers would like to get away with.
Good Real Estate agents are focused on getting the best price for their selling clients as it is the seller they are working for – not the buyer. Buyers when they come to sell often remember that they had to pay a fair price and go looking for a good agent to represent them so they too can sell well.
Here is a recent case study that is very typical. The owners were looking to sell as they were going overseas. We appraised the value of their three bedroom unit with internal garage at $320,000. The 2011 council valuation is $280,000. While some buyers dropped out of the bidding between $290,000 and $320,000 the remaining two bidders took the eventual selling price to $356,000. That is $36,000 more than the logic of our appraisal said it was worth and $76,000 above the council valuation!
Auctions are not just for those top of the market properties, they also work well in all price ranges and the results are often very good for sellers with many premium prices achieved.
Currently my personal success rate at auction is 93% sold within 60 days of being on the market. The great majority of those sold under the hammer on the day.
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value I would be honoured to help you – just give me a call or send me an email.
October 30 2012 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
Our Managing Director, Peter Thompson, made the following comments about the market to the end of August: “We are certainly in a period of high activity and have been selling around 1,000 homes per month for the last three months and at month end we had only 3,777 properties on our books. That’s the lowest number of properties at month’s end in the past 10 years. In August the average price was $592,395, less than $1,000 higher than the average price in July, and in the last three months the average price has increased by less than 2%.”
Tony Alexander of BNZ, provides a great summary of the Real Estate market in his 20th July weekly overview: “Lack of supply kept house prices rising as predicted from 2005-07 in spite of sharp interest rate increases, limited price falls to only 11% on average during the global financial crisis, and has seen prices now rise about their late-2007 record levels.
During the period from 2008 to the end of the last year the majority of young buyers, and one suggests investors, had the view that house prices would probably fall and that it would be a good idea to hold off buying. But now those fears of house price falls have completely gone out the window as four years of delayed buyers have rushed into the market to be followed by the more cash rich investors. This frenzy of catch-up buying explains the articles in the NZ Herald in Auckland regarding aggressive bidding at auctions and people describing the easy tax free money they have made from purchasing a year ago and selling now.
Those stories of wealth gains carry a lot of traction and will be bringing even more buyers into the market. This is where cycles come from. Sentiment changes cause people to catch up on delayed buying, or bring forward planned buying so this causes a surge in prices and activity. We are very much into the early stages of a particularly strong cyclical upturn occasioned by the delayed purchasing noted above, bring-forward buying and the investor element.”
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value I would be honoured to help you – just give me a call or send me an email.
September 27 2012 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
Peter Thompson, our Managing Director, recently made these comments:
“High residential property sales in Auckland during July have reduced the number of homes for sale. At the end of July Barfoot and Thompson across Auckland and Northland had the lowest level of listings in seven years, at only 3,975 it is the lowest number since late 2005.
The low number of properties for sale is being caused by high turnover, not by the low number of people listing properties for sale. In July we listed 1,295 properties, 23% more than in the same month last year. However, demand in July was exceptionally strong and we sold 28% more homes than July last year.
The number of homes on our books at month’s end has now fallen each month for five months. It has created a market in which people are prepared to act decisively. Prices are increasing, but they are not spiralling up. What is out of the ordinary is the number of properties being sold for this time of year and the speed at which they are being sold.”
In Central Papatoetoe we also are selling properties quickly and at prices that almost weekly surprise us. Properties taken to auction have often been selling above predicted levels and a number have sold over $600,000, while good quality units have sold for over $300,000.
This is a great time to be selling as the number of buyers in the market are driving this upward price change. As I have previously mentioned in this newsletter we still have many buyers and little to show them, so when a desirable property is available there is a lot of interest from genuine people.
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value. I would be honoured to help you – just give me a call or send me an email.
August 27 2012 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
Often, recently, my colleagues and I have been discussing the lack of property on the market for good quality buyers. By this, we mean people who are ready to buy now – finance arranged – and who know what they want and are happy for us to search for a home for them. The reason they are still looking is that either what we have for sale does not meet their expectations of value for money or does not grab them emotionally to want to pay a little extra for it, if the price is only just out of reach.
Some of my buyers have been looking for months and the list just keeps growing – there are currently over sixty groups or individuals who would buy now if the right property came up. Even though I become quite close to buyers my duty is to the sellers, as they are the ones I am being asked to act for, so it is not surprising that often we get great results from competing buyers at auctions or listings with a realistic asking price, very quickly.
A case in point is a house listed last Monday with a price on it; we had an offer on it by Wednesday and an agreement was reached on Friday from a buyer who one of my colleagues had been dealing with for some time. Another house that was listed for auction had eight bidders on auction day and sold well above our and the sellers expectations.
Even though the shortage of listings for sale is a real problem in Central Papatoetoe, it is common throughout Auckland and in many other parts of New Zealand, so it’s not surprising that the media have many spectacular examples to tell us about, particularly in Central Auckland.
So if you have been thinking of selling this certainly is a great market for sellers.
It all makes for interesting times.
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value. I would be honoured to help you – just give me a call or send me an email.
August 24 2012 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
Barfoot & Thompson had a very busy December with sales numbers reaching 714, the highest level for five years, and were more than a third higher than for December 2011.
Although it was an excellent sales month, overall the Auckland market remains restrained. House prices are increasing modestly at an average of 2.5% higher than for the 2010 year. Buyer interest is high, but they remain realistic about the price they are prepared to pay.
The average number of new listings each month for 2011 was 1220 – the lowest average number for more than a decade. We finished December with only 4583 properties on our books, the lowest number for 4.5 years.
Auckland’s population is growing and new house construction remains low, leading to a city facing a major shortage of accommodation. As the national economy improves and people become more confident in their personal financial situation, they are likely to act on their housing plans, and this is likely to lead to the market becoming more active.
For Central Papatoetoe we see plentiful buyers and the number of houses on the market at low levels which has led to multiple offers on desirable and/or well presented properties.
So, is it a good time to sell? Most of my recent clients would say – “most definitely” as we have achieved some great recent results. We haven’t seen as many first home buyers for a long time and historically they have always helped to stimulate every part of the market.
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value. I would be honoured to help you – just give me a call or send me an email.
January 25 2012 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
As promised here it is; a comparison of sales between 1st March 2011 and 18th June 2011 to both new and old council valuations. The reason for the chosen dates is that this is the immediate period before the 1st July 2011 valuation date. The company doing the valuation for the council had this information.
|
Property
|
Sell Price
|
Date
|
Old CV
|
New CV
|
Difference
|
|
$
|
%
|
| 1/52 Birdwood Ave |
$338,500
|
4/6/11
|
$275
|
$320
|
$45,000+
|
16+
|
| 3/54 Birdwood ave |
$402,000
|
13/6/11
|
$380
|
$370
|
$10,000-
|
2.7-
|
| 9/61 Birdwood Ave |
$277,500
|
2/4/11
|
$275
|
$265
|
$10,000-
|
3.7-
|
| 2/33 Central Ave |
$283,800
|
21/3/11
|
$290
|
$280
|
$10,000-
|
3.5-
|
| 2/19 Glen Ave |
$446,000
|
26/3/11
|
$425
|
$410
|
$15,000-
|
3.5-
|
| 35 Glen Ave |
$480,000
|
24/5/11
|
$500
|
$475
|
$25,000-
|
5-
|
| 2/63 Great South Rd |
$344,350
|
8/3/11
|
$365
|
$335
|
$30,000-
|
8.3-
|
| 2/65 Hoteo Ave |
$315,000
|
1/5/11
|
$310
|
$300
|
$10,000-
|
3.2-
|
| 45 Kautami Ave |
$379,500
|
11/6/11
|
$370
|
$340
|
$30,000-
|
8.1-
|
| 1/21 Konini Ave |
$260,000
|
20/5/11
|
$260
|
$250
|
$10,000-
|
3.8-
|
| 1 Lochinver Road |
$420,000
|
21/5/11
|
$385
|
$385
|
0
|
0
|
| 13a Margan Ave |
$445,500
|
18/6/11
|
$495
|
$470
|
$25,000
|
5-
|
| 36 Matuhi Grove |
$430,000
|
3/3/11
|
$460
|
$430
|
$30,000
|
6.5-
|
| 11a Motatau Road |
$565,000
|
16/6/11
|
$570
|
$520
|
$50,000-
|
9-
|
| 21 Omana Road |
$445,000
|
11/3/11
|
$475
|
$455
|
$20,000
|
4.2-
|
| 23 Omana Road |
$570,000
|
19/4/11
|
$690
|
$640
|
$50,000-
|
7.3-
|
| 1/10 Paton Ave |
$275,000
|
20/5/11
|
$305
|
$295
|
$10,000-
|
3.3-
|
| 3/44 Rangitoto Road |
$295,000
|
9/6/11
|
$235
|
$235
|
0
|
0
|
| 23B Watson Pl |
$368,000
|
18/4/11
|
$360
|
$350
|
$10,000-
|
2.7-
|
| 3/32 Wentworth Ave |
$278,000
|
6/5/11
|
$270
|
$260
|
$10,000-
|
3.7-
|
- The above data was supplied by Terralink and Auckland City Council. While great care has been taken in checking these details no responsibility is accepted for any errors or omissions.
Excluding 1/52 Birdwood Ave (the only property with an increased CV due to a consented renovation), new C.V’s on average are 4.8% below old C.V’s. The Manukau Courier on November 3 reported Papatoetoe new CV’s 4.45% below old C.V’s
Sales average 1.9% below old CV’s. Sales average 3% above new CV’s.
I will leave the interpretation of the above to you except to comment that your selling price could be around 3% above your new C.V, but I am aware of many large ‘overs’ and ‘unders’ that still exist with some properties in Central Papatoetoe so do so with caution.
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value. I would be honoured to help you – just give me a call or send me an email.
Merry Christmas
November 28 2011 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
Go the All Blacks! The local housing market is calm, stable and consistent. Let’s hope the All Black can be too!
BNZ’s Tony Alexander reports on the 7th of October: “The average sales price (in Auckland) jumped to $547,000 in September from $531,000 in August and the gain from a year ago amounted to 4.6% but on average over the September quarter, prices were up only 0.8% from the June quarter, so one would struggle to run to much of an argument that prices are rising much.”
Central Papatoetoe sees a market in a relatively calm state with prices and volume of sales fairly static. The number of properties on the market is at very low level. Potential buyers still exceed the stock available and my own buyer list is very long. Banks continue to ease their lending criteria and pre approvals continue to rise, so there are plenty of good well qualified buyers available should you be thinking of selling.
My next newsletter will provide you with a comparison of new council valuations to recent Central Papatoetoe sales and to the old C.V’s. I have done this several times over the years and the inconsistency never fails to amaze me. I can only hope that this time some of the large ‘overs’ or ‘unders’ disappear!
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value, I would be honoured to help you. Just give me a call or an email.
October 19 2011 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
It may physically be still mid-winter but for Real Estate sales, spring has definitely arrived after a long hard winter of low volumes and static prices that reach back to late 2007 – almost 4 years!
Prices in Central Papatoetoe are now on average above the peak in late 2007. The number of available listings is currently very low, as you will notice if you drive around the Central School Zone area and consequently good well presented properties are selling fast – often in days not weeks.
Of particular note is the continuing trend of younger professional people looking to buy in Papatoetoe, which I mentioned in my last newsletter. As the suburbs closer to town have become less affordable; where the average price now is $608,379 (for the 12 months to June 2011) compared to our average price of approximately $400,000 in Central Papatoetoe. We provide great buying especially for family properties in the $400,000 – $600,000 range.
My own buyer list is now very long with those who were not successful at my recent promotions and auctions. These are people who can buy now, finance approved and ready to go, for the right property that represent good value to them. This is still not a market for overpricing as buyers generally can compare what has sold within their ideal suburbs and also because information from the internet is now so easily available.
Whilst mortgage interest rates are likely to rise soon, buyers are still likely to be able to meet banks easing lending criteria. (There was a time not so long ago where you needed to almost be a saint to qualify!) Brokers and bank Mobile Managers have said that their numbers of pre-approvals is definitely rising. So as I mentioned in my last newsletter it is a good time to sell!
As always, whether you, family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value. I would be honoured to help you – just give me a call or send me an email.
August 05 2011 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
My last newsletter referred to the shortage of good properties to sell and that situation still remains. The list of quality buyers with pre-approvals continues to increase and there is a growing trend of younger professional people looking and buying in Central Papatoetoe as the suburbs closer to town become less affordable.
We have just sold 1 Lochinver Road at auction and had interest from a number of these young professionals, one of these couples being the purchaser. In this case, good competition saw the property sell above the anticipated level.
As you will see from the list of sales since 1/2/11 on the enclosed flyer, these has been a good cross section of price ranges sold. So as always for this time of year the question you might ask is “Is this a good time to sell?” The answer is a definite “Yes”! Those properties on the market over the next few months will have the pool of buyers more to themselves, compared to spring when more properties will be listed and buyers will then have more choice.
Here is an extract from BNZ’s Tony Alexander’s Housing Market Update from early May that gives a broader view of the Auckland market that you might find helpful.
Auckland Turnover Improving Marginally
“This week Barfoot and Thompson released their Auckland real estate activity numbers and they show a sector recovering. In April they sold 723 dwellings which was a 7.7% gain from April 2010 and slight seasonally adjusted drop from March. In fact for the three months to April roughly seasonally adjusted turnover was up 5%. So there is a mild improvement in activity underway. In terms of listings, at the end of the month Barfoot and Thompson had 5,580 in total which was a decline of 8.2% from a year ago. New listings during the month totalled 1,033 which was a fall of 21.3% from last year. There is no flood of property coming onto the market. The ratio of sales to listings is trending upwards.”
As always, whether you, your family or friends are looking to sell, buy or would like an update of your property’s current value I would be honoured to help you. Just give me a call or send an email.
May 30 2011 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
Here is Tony Alexander’s latest update – and it’s a fantastic no BS account of what’s really happening!
BNZ Weekly Overview 7 April 2011 To see the full update click here
HOUSING MARKET UPDATE
Turnover is improving, construction falling, and prices essentially flat on average but veering toward the upside.
And So It Starts
If you have been a regular reader of the Weekly Overview you will know that our view on the housing market has been different from practically all other analysts for a number of years now – and we have been if not always right at least considerably less wrong. In particular we predicted only a 10% – 15% fall in average house prices as a result of the global recession and not the silly 40% falls some pretenders were forecasting. In the event house prices fell on average by 11% and now sit just over 5% away from the peaks reached in late-2007.
Our analysis has been based around the identification not of an oversupply of property as was and is the problem in many other countries, but an undersupply. Recently, in the WO of February 3, we discussed a recent report from the Department of Building and Housing which we utilised to estimate a 28,000 shortage of dwellings early this year. We have since lifted that estimate to 39,000 courtesy of the Christchurch earthquake and the simple passage of time bringing monthly consent issuance at less than half that needed to meet population growth.
Our view for the past couple of years has been that at some point probably this year we will see increasing pressure on rents as a result of this shortage. This pressure we opined would be greatest in Auckland because the housing cycle of the 2000s involved the strongest buying and excess construction happening in the regions and not in our biggest city. They had their boom in the 1990s. Our pick is that this cycle will once again belong to Auckland.
We have picked that the tightening of the rental market will translate into greater awareness of the shortage and discussion of a lack of property will become common.
And we have picked that from late this year house prices will be rising again because of the very simple interaction between this worsening shortage of property and not just economic growth but a potentially rapidly tightening labour market, especially over 2012.
And so how do we find ourselves now? First the awareness of a housing shortage is so great that the Minister of Finance has decided to duplicate the work already done by the Commerce Select Committee over 2007-08 and hold another enquiry into NZ housing costs, this time to be run by the newly formed Productivity Commission. We give our honest assessment of how productive this exercise will be at http://tonyalexander.co.nz/?page_id=43
Second, although we feel it is still early days for this as yet, there is growing evidence of accelerating growth in rents. This is one element strongly evident in the monthly Barfoot and Thompson report released yesterday. They note that in their sphere of activity – about one-third of the Auckland residential property market – average rents for newly tenanted properties in March came in at $434 a week from $402 in February. This is a large 8.2% rise from a year ago and the greatest one month increase on record.
There is a tendency for this measure to fluctuate $10 and sometimes $20 on a non-sustained basis so we see a very high probability that in April the average rent will decrease. But a fall equal to March’s rise seems unlikely given the strengthening anecdotal feedback regarding tenants bidding rents up to secure properties.
The average dwelling sale price for Barfoot and Thompson in Auckland over March was a record $581,000. If one excludes a high number of sales over $2mn this falls to $560,000 which is a rise of 2.8% from a year ago and probably a better measure of price gain than the 6.6% if one uses the $581,000 number.
We feel one can speak in terms of average house prices now rising again in Auckland and while we feel the bulk of this year will still be bumpy we anticipate a period of price rises stretching over a number of years which at this stage it is impossible to forecast.
We have another theory that as buyers come out of the woodwork there will be potentially a number of waves of sellers who will appear. First will be those who actually have their properties on the market. Next there will be 1 -2 waves of those who might have tried to sell 2-3 years ago but gave up and haven’t been too worried because interest rates have been so low. Included in this second group or groups will be the small investors who through losing the ability to claim depreciation and offset cash flow losses against other income will want to quit the market. It is because of this wave theory (as it were) we think the Auckland housing market will not simply go on a straight line upward.
With regard to turnover B & T sold 1,070 dwellings in March which was a 15% rise from a year ago and strong seasonally adjusted gain for the month near 20% and for the past three months near 10%. Turnover is rising.
April 08 2011 | Uncategorized | No Comments »
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Robert Davies