Where are the Home sellers?
The Herald has trumpeted the fact that there is a listing shortage and Landlords.co.nz have also picked up on this in their latest blog. This has been the prevalent situation in my market in North Wellington since late Jan as continued interest rate drops and softer prices have coerced young buyers into the market.
In the article released yesterday Alistair Helm was quoted as saying,”The reduced inventory will start to favour sellers, and could result in upward pressure on prices in coming months”.
Any buyer who is actively looking in Johnsonville, Churton Park, Broadmeadows, and Newlands for a home will already be aware of the lack of stock and competition for new listings from very motivated buyers.
Prices have already started to firm as buyers have competed with each other over the few well presented, sunny, fairly priced homes. There has been a clean out of stock at most price levels.
As I mentioned in my blog post a couple of weeks ago, most companies in my area of focus are short on stock and are scratching for listings. Potential home sellers are not usually active in the market until they make the decision to list their home and, therefore, take their cues from the media which seems to have been overly harsh on the property market and is in my view, very Auckland focused (or Auckcentric as I call it – yes you may use my word!), the scenario in Wellington seems to differ from the Auckland experience.
Wellington appears to be a more conservative market than many other larger centres, and the North Wellington market including Tawa is more conservative than central Wellington and the remaining suburbs. Looking at the stats for the last 30 years a picture similar to a staircase emerges with steady climbs interspersed with plateaus as the market consolidates. We are in one of those consolidation phases currently as the market takes a breather from a furious upward climb over the last 5 yrs or so. If the market follows the historical pattern, there will be a price plateau for a couple of years (we are 18 months into this currently) followed by a lift in turnover and a move into the early growth phase of the market. Looking at the stats for North Wellington, it appears that we may already in the early growth phase. The number of homes selling is up, and the average time to sell peaked before Christmas and is moving downward.
Next step?
Upward movement in prices…..
May 02 2009 08:10 am | General Real Estate and Home Sellers and North Wgtn House Market Trends
Harry Simon on 03 May 2009 at 11:44 pm #
David
What you say sort of makes sense but aren’t you covern’ for the typical winter slow down in listings. If I read the media right its going to be a real drought this winter. I say “why not drum up some business” here?
David Garratt on 04 May 2009 at 8:17 am #
yes, there is usually a slow down of listings in winter but this year that slowdown of listings to the market has begun in summer!
Historically there is a “speed up” of listings coming to the market in spring and summer. This hasn’t taken place at the usual pace leaving us with a listing shortfall currently that will only get worse as we move in to the depths of winter. Buyers, however, are still buying!
If I can drum up some business here, why not! It is why we write real estate blogs in the first place right!
Sharon James, AREINZ Business Broker on 06 May 2009 at 9:23 am #
David, well done on being April’s Blogger of the month, keep up with the interesting articles. Regards, Sharon