The Herald has trumpeted the fact that there is a listing shortage and Landlords.co.nz have also picked up on this in their latest blog. This has been the prevalent situation in my market in North Wellington since late Jan as continued interest rate drops and softer prices have coerced young buyers into the market.
In the article released yesterday Alistair Helm was quoted as saying,”The reduced inventory will start to favour sellers, and could result in upward pressure on prices in coming months”.
Any buyer who is actively looking in Johnsonville, Churton Park, Broadmeadows, and Newlands for a home will already be aware of the lack of stock and competition for new listings from very motivated buyers.
Prices have already started to firm as buyers have competed with each other over the few well presented, sunny, fairly priced homes. There has been a clean out of stock at most price levels.
As I mentioned in my blog post a couple of weeks ago, most companies in my area of focus are short on stock and are scratching for listings. Potential home sellers are not usually active in the market until they make the decision to list their home and, therefore, take their cues from the media which seems to have been overly harsh on the property market and is in my view, very Auckland focused (or Auckcentric as I call it – yes you may use my word!), the scenario in Wellington seems to differ from the Auckland experience.
Wellington appears to be a more conservative market than many other larger centres, and the North Wellington market including Tawa is more conservative than central Wellington and the remaining suburbs. Looking at the stats for the last 30 years a picture similar to a staircase emerges with steady climbs interspersed with plateaus as the market consolidates. We are in one of those consolidation phases currently as the market takes a breather from a furious upward climb over the last 5 yrs or so. If the market follows the historical pattern, there will be a price plateau for a couple of years (we are 18 months into this currently) followed by a lift in turnover and a move into the early growth phase of the market. Looking at the stats for North Wellington, it appears that we may already in the early growth phase. The number of homes selling is up, and the average time to sell peaked before Christmas and is moving downward.
Upward movement in prices…..