The new Statistics New Zealand amended population forecasts to 2043 are very interesting, especially within our region:
Manawatu District +22.1%
Palmerston North +20.6%
Horowhenua + 1.0%
Whanganui – 2.3%
Rangitikei – 6.9%
Tararua – 12.0%
Ruapehu - 27.9%
Manawatu is now ahead of New Plymouth, Palmerston North, Nelson, Kapiti, Tasman, Marlborough, Upper Hutt, Porirua, Lower Hutt, Hastings, Napier, Taupo, Rotorua to name only a few.
The median residential house sale price for Feilding is $305,000 when calculated over 3 months, which is down slightly from the 2 previous months. January usually has the lowest number of sales in Feilding because of the holiday season. There were 29 sales in January 2017, which was very strong for a January. January 2016 had 19, and January 2015 had 18 sales. Whanganui’s median has risen considerably to $192,500.
Median house prices calculated over 3 months were:
Feilding 305,000 Palmerston North 335,000
New Zealand 511,500 Eastern Suburbs Ak 1,600,000
Levin 243,500 Rangitikei 173,250
Pahiatua 161,000 Whanganui 192,500
Our economic confidence is higher than the average for New Zealand. In fact our wider region was 2nd only to Bay of Plenty in a recent Westpac McDermott Miller survey for the December Quarter of 2016. The top 5 are as follows:
– Bay of Plenty 50%
– Taranaki/Manawatu/Whanganui 44%
– Gisborne/Hawke’s Bay 41.7%
– Waikato 41%
– Southland 40%
The dairy recovery would be playing an important part in this confidence.
So many markets, including the real estate market, run on, or are based on, confidence. This economic and business confidence, also identified in a recent CEDA survey, is one of the underlying foundation stones of the current strong housing market. After many years in the economic doldrums, it is good to be out performing the metropolitan cities of New Zealand.
The Massey Affordability Index takes into account house prices, wage levels and the cost of borrowing. The Manawatu/Whanganui saw a 6% decline in affordability for the December Quarter, but only a 2.5% decline for the year.
As a percentage of the New Zealand average level of affordability, Manawatu/Whanganui is very affordable at 56%, with only Southland more affordable at 48%. Auckland at 156% and Central Otago Lakes at 145% are the least affordable regions in NZ.
Our regional neighbours are as follows: Taranaki 66%, Wellington/Wairarapa 87%, Hawkes Bay 70% and Waikato/Bay of Plenty 97%.
Our region’s house prices have lifted 18% in the last 12 months, but borrowing costs dropped through the year, but that trend might be reversing now.
All in all, our patch is affordable and represents a good investment.
The REINZ median residential house sale price for Feilding in December 2016 was $312,000 when calculated over 3 months. It was $264,000 in December 2015, so has risen 18%. Volume remained strong with 37 sales. December median house prices calculated over 3 months were:
Feilding 312,000 Palmerston North 339,500
New Zealand 515,750 Eastern Suburbs Ak 1,651,000
Levin 234,000 Rangitikei 173,250
Pahiatua 162,000 Whanganui 175,000
Happy New Year Readers
Predictions are not easy – who predicted Brexit, a Trump victory or even a change of Prime Minister? We are affected by what happens overseas.
I am optimistic regarding 2017 in terms of our local Manawatu and Rangitikei residential, lifestyle and commercial real estate markets. The earthquake prone building issue is however affecting many of our older commercial properties.
I expect to see:
- A continued steady increase in values. Our prices are low compared with most other NZ regions. In June 2011 Feilding’s residential median sale price was $250,000, and that for NZ was $355,000; a difference of $105,000. For many years prior the difference was about $100,000 as a rough guide. The latest statistics for November 2016 show Feilding’s median at $308,500, and that for NZ at $515,000; a difference of $206,500!
- Continued demand locally and from Aucklanders and Wellingtonians coming our way for lifestyle and affordability reasons.
- More demand from Kiwis returning home from abroard, and from foreigners, especially from the United Kingdom.
- More out of town Investors in our market because our returns are better that in most of NZ where higher values exist.
We have so many advantages living in our part of the world. Enjoy those advantages and have a great 2017. Let me know if I can assist with any property matters.
I wish all readers a very Merry Christmas, a good break hopefully, and a very Happy New Year.
The local residential real estate market is strong, with increased values.
The population is growing, and Manawatu District is leading the region in growth.
Unemployment is below the regional and national averages.
Residential building consents have increased dramatically.
The dairy pay out forecast has substantially increased.
There is strong growth in new car and commercial vehicle registrations.
Compared to most of NZ, Feilding and the Manawatu District is very affordable.
The REINZ median residential house sale price for Feilding is $308,500 when calculated over 3 months, and $318,250 for the month of November alone. This is the 4th individual month out of 5 at or over $300,000, which is consistent enough to say that we have broken that barrier. Compare this to a median of around $260,000 in the middle of last year. Eastern Suburbs in Auckland has increased $460,000 since August, and November saw an increase in the number of sales there!
November median house prices calculated over 3 months were:
Palmerston North 335,250
New Zealand 515,000
Eastern Suburbs Ak 1,634,000
Of the last 110 sales in Feilding in the last 3 months by Licensed Real Estate Agents, 7 were sections with sale prices between $90,000 and $219,000.
Units and Houses started at $112,000 for an ex rental flat, and the top price was $599,000 for a new home at Mount Taylor.
$100,000 – $199,000 7 Sales
$200,000 – $299,000 40 Sales
$300,000 – $399,000 29 Sales
$400,000 – $499,000 18 Sales
$500,000 – $599,000 9 Sales