How the general election impacts the property market

Election Property Market

The hoardings are up (with a few to still to be updated), the door knockers are out in force, and our newsfeeds are flooded with stories detailing the latest resignations and policy announcements – election season is well and truly underway.

Policies and personalities aside, we’re often asked by clients how an upcoming election is likely to affect the property market, particularly sellers who ask whether it’s better to hold off until it’s over or simply to push on through with getting their property on to the market. The conventional wisdom is that markets do not respond well to uncertainty, and given recent developments, the election’s outcome is anything but certain. On the other hand, I’m yet to meet a buyer who has said that they’re going to forego a purchasing opportunity simply because they do not know the makeup of the next government.

While it’s easy for us to rely on anecdotal evidence and the vibe of the market, thankfully we have access to a considerable body of data from REINZ dating back to 1992. Back in 2014, real estate commentator Alistair Helm at Properazzi came up with a seasonable comparison. It uses the three preceding months leading up to each general election date and calculates the representation those months were of the total sales for that year. He then compares that % representation as a single figure against the normal for the same 3 months of the year based on a larger set of preceding data going back to 1992, as follows:

Election Year Sales Graph

Helm comments:

You could say that on average general elections depress property sales as 5 of the 8 elections caused property sales to decline as compared to normal. However there is no real consistency. The completely and significant opposing variance in the results for 1993 and 1996 are too significant to ignore.

Our friends at Bayleys have also analysed the data dating back to 2000:

Our analysis indicates that the majority of those choosing the ‘wait and see’ approach around election dates are property investors, as it is this section which is more likely to be impacted by changes in government policy.

The decision by owner occupiers looking to enter the market or move home tends to be driven by changes in personal circumstances, such as marriage, divorce, having a family, changing jobs, retiring etc. Once these circumstances are in play, the decision to purchase a new home is unlikely to be delayed solely because they coincide with the date of an election.

While there are signs that the Christchurch property market is cooling, this cannot be solely attributed to the election. The post-quake residential construction boom has boosted supply, while LVR restrictions are dampening demand, resulting in fairly modest price growth. The great thing is that a steady market empowers buyers and sellers to make informed decisions with confidence.

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About Peter Griffioen

Peter Griffioen - or simply Griff to those who know him - has an established reputation as a high-producing Harcourts Canterbury salesperson. With a focused approach to customer service you can rest assured that you are in good hands, whether it be a relaxed chat about the state of the market or an in-depth discussion regarding your next property transaction. The key advantage of engaging Team Griff’s services is their local knowledge and experience. Currently in this post-seismic era, it is vital to have true professionals working on your behalf, ensuring that you are guided through the process professionally and with a caring approach. The advent of the ‘as is, where is’ market means specialised expertise are required and Team Griff has taken it on themselves to both understand and explain the pros and cons of this now accepted sale/purchase option. For over 26 years the Griff brand has become synonymous with achieving results. Griff now prides himself with his five member team and takes much satisfaction from empowering them to both achieve and reach their own goals. A team with a proven track record placed with the highest ranking Harcourts Million Dollar Club members, exceeding the $275m level. Such accomplishments highlight the team’s exceptional marketing and negotiating skills. Team Griff are recognised as industry leaders for their online presence and regular blog posts of current and relevant real estate information. E-marketing and readily available property specific detailed info means Team Griff’s clients have the edge when it comes to selling their homes, not forgetting purchasers who benefit first hand. A simple Google search says it all – the Griff brand ranking with the most frequent. Griff’s life focus extends beyond business, with quality time and fun being high priorities, while mountain biking, boating and fishing provide that vital time out. His Christian faith is his anchor for daily living, and his community is important to him. For a team approach to optimize the result for your next property transaction, be sure to talk to this award winning team - synonymous with hard work and results! Griff and his trusted team welcome your enquiry today.

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