Wow – What is happening in the Regions?
January sale numbers in Hamilton have trended down for the last two years.
This comes after a lift in sales in the January 2011 though to January 2012 of 100 sales (88 – 188) – but since then we see 183 last year (January) and now January 2014 – 156.
So where is this boom in real estate we all keep hearing about? Even in Hamilton we have less than forthright commentators trying to talk the market up with broad sweeping comments like “buyer enquiry is unbelievable”, when in fact the numbers speak to a far more subdued market.
In the greater city sales we see Auckland up 121 (7%) and Christchurch up 40 (12%) – all other Centres are down between -7% through -27%.
The so called boom Centres Auckland and Christchurch are sucking infrastructure and people out of the regions (why work as a carpenter in Dunedin for $30/hr when you can go to Christchurch and earn $70/hr?). This is obviously going to exasperate the skill shortage in the regions – then of course they don’t need to buy or rent a house in the regions and the knock on effect continues.
LVR – restrictions have had a marked effect on all markets. It has dampened the Auckland and Christchurch market but rained cats and dogs on the regions. The regions – never had a housing bubble only our two big brothers did. The application of the LVR nationally instead of just in major growth areas (Auckland and Christchurch) was a clear mistake. This needs adjustment and just like the reserval for new home package, the restriction needs to come off the regions.
That’s my take, what is yours? Feedback appreciated.