Have We Been ‘Dogged’?

Have We Been ‘Dogged’?

Are The Public Rogues?

Scenario – Lovely freehold property in a West Coast beach town. Lots of less popular leasehold property also in this town.

Hard working salesperson who travels to this quiet town (there’s no in town sales agency – it’s too small), a distance of 100kms or so. The Salesperson works all week in Hamilton, then sells in our town on the weekends.

He lists a nice freehold property, then puts up a sign, puts a flyer advertising the property in his display board in the main street of our quiet township, puts it on the internet. Fast forward 1 – 3 weeks and after showing the property to a prospect, talks to the neighbour – they have seen the sign board and seen him showing the property – he tells them all about the property.

Dog Hand

Our hard working Salesperson carries on and does a great job, shows a dozen people through over the next 2-3 months, but our Vendor wants $350,000 plus, and gets an offer at $308,000, which the Salesperson feels he could get up into the $330,000’s, but the determined Vendor signs back at $350,000 plus, our Buyer walks.  More time goes by and our Salesperson gets told the Vendor wants to withdraw and now keep the property – no problem.

Fast forward a few weeks and what do we see – works happening at the property – what might you think?

Yes, I know and yes you are right.

Sold to the neighbour.

Sad Dog

Why – neighbour wanted to get away from their leasehold title and loving the little township wanted a Freehold property.

How did this happen? Neighbour saw the For Sale sign and spoke with the Salesperson, the sign effected notice to the neighbour of property for sale. Then went around the back door and purchased direct from the Vendor. You know the kicker though – is that the sale is at $315,000 and remember the Salesperson had an offer months before which could have been done at $330,000ish. Let’s say $330,000 – commission would have been $15,000 and a sale of the empty house much earlier, giving the Vendor his $315,000.

Now the Vendor – an older gentleman with health deteriorating, has a great rapport with our Salesperson, but the withdrawal finally comes from his smarter son who by this time is looking after dads affairs.

So, the son lies to the Salesperson when he just wants to withdraw the property, when he knows he has sold to the neighbour. Dad, who has been honest and true all his life now has to live his last years knowing he has ‘dogged’ the Salesperson.

Dog no Bone

All this just to get the same money the Salesperson could have had for them months earlier.

What are your thoughts??….

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Residential House Sales – Hamilton July 2014


Where have all the buyers gone?

The Real Hamilton Real Estate News….

Next time you hear self interested Real Estate commentators talking the Hamilton Market up – remember that they have 6-8 Real Estate offices full on hungry Salespeople all looking to believe in New Zealand’s great Real Estate boom.

The truth is, it was and is a myth.

Sure, as we now see, the market had a false lift in 2013, but the Reserve Bank quickly turned that recovering market off by increasing interest rates and applying loan to value ratios (LVR) on mortgages

Yes, everybody has a job rebuilding Christchurch and Auckland is buoyed by immigration and returning Kiwi’s   – but in the regions, recession is quickly setting in and any recovery is long gone.

Why do I talk this way?!

July’s result of 201 house sales compared with 252 (2013), 207 (2012) and 204 (2011), this a 4 year low.

How about this for a wake up call – in the early to mid 1990’s, sales were 241 (1992), 246 (1993), 299 (1994), 294 (1995). Now, 20 years later with some 10,000 more homes in the city, we can only manage sale levels less than those of 20 years ago.

Is there a bright side?

Spring is on our doorstep, the elections will be over in time for us to do some business pre-Christmas, unless Kim Dotcom becomes Prime Minister and if that happens we will all have a merry old time.

July 1992-2014 SalesJuly 2014 Rise and Fall of House Sales 2004 - 2013July 2014 House Price Movement 2009 - 2014

July 2014 Sales and days to sell

July 2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 Months

July2014 Suburban Break down of Median Sale Prices

July 2014 Major City Sales Summary

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Residential Sales Statistics for Hamilton for June 2014

Where has the missing Month Gone – Gone to the LVR far far away!!!!!!!!

What is LVR – the 20% deposit imposed by the reserve bank before a loan can be gained.

Take time to look at this first sales graph below – it tracks sale number back to June 1992, you will see that in the 4 years 1992 through 1995,  984 houses sold and in the last 4 years 920 sales – this across all agencies. That is 240 less sales over that period which equals a missing month of sales.

Now you tell me how many more homes exist in Hamilton today?  Well a quick survey here puts it around 35 – 40 % more residential properties in Hamilton today – is a picture forming in your mind right about now? I would think so.

All this talk of a real estate boom is just that, talk – certainly in the regions but even in Auckland and Christchurch the talk does not match numbers.

So who would be interested in talking up the NZ economy and blaming house sales for rising interest rates.  Well who needs positive affirmation about the economy right now – would it be a Government about to go to the voters  – interesting question!!

What of the future – more of the same for the balance of 2014 with gradual improvement forecast for 2015

June 1992-2014 Sales

June 2014 Rise and Fall of House Sales 2004 - 2013June 2014 House Price Movement 2009 - 2014

June 2014 Sales and days to sell

June  2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 Months

June 2014 Suburban Break down of Sales

June 2014 Suburban Break down of Median Sale Prices

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Residential Statistics for Hamilton and Other Large Cities in New Zealand for May 2014

Hamilton and the rest of NZ continues to struggle under the weight of LVR restrictions on the back of the GFC contraction world wide – lets not forget this whole mess was created by big banks and big bankers.

I must continue to highlight that the Regions have never had a real estate boom – only Auckland and Christchurch had a so called boom in sales and that is well gone with sales now down in all sectors for May.

Be sure to see the last graph in the set below to see what all the major centres are doing but with Auckland down 9% (213 sales)for February, 10% (324 sales) for March and now 15% (415 sales) in May – clearly any real commentator with no outside barrow to push can see that the heat is gone from the market.

 

May 1992-2014 Sales

May 2014 Rise and Fall of House Sales 2004 - 2013

May 2014 House Price Movement 2009 - 2014 1

May 2014 Sales and days to sell

May 2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 Months

May 2014 Suburban Break down of Sales

May 2014 Suburban Break down of Median Sale Prices

Comparisons All Cities Surveyed May 2004

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Residential Statistics for Hamilton and Other Large Cities – April 2014

House Sales Subside

Hamilton House sales continue to contract in the post LVR world.

At the moment, there is a lot of hype out there about how well the New Zealand economy is doing.  Well, apart from dairy farmers (drought aside) and banks (huge bank profits registered) the only sectors doing okay are Auckland and Christchurch.  The regions continue to suffer.

This month’s huge drop in house sales for Hamilton highlights the fragile market place.

This month’s (April 2014) sales results in the entire Hamilton house sales market place was 204 against 250 for 2013  –  returning to sales levels close to the depressing post global financial crisis years.

The market could now under perform until post the elections set for September 2014.

Check out this link for the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand….. https://www.reinz.co.nz/reinz/index.cfm?1CB561D5-18FE-7E88-42FB-507342EF7F81&obj_uuid=CEDC8B41-15BA-494F-81FF-70757FDE27B5

April 1992-2014 Sales

 

April 2014 Rise and Fall of House Sales 2004 - 2013

April 2014 House Price Movement 2009 - 2014 1

April 2014 Sales and days to sell

April 2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 Months

April 2014 Suburban Break down of Sales

April2014 Suburban Break down of Median Sale Prices

NEW ZEALAND LARGE CITIES 

 April 2014 Major City Sales Summary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Residential Statistics for Hamilton for March 2014

No Housing Boom in New Zealand Real Estate Market

The edge continues to come off the Nations (New Zealand) so called housing boom.

In Hamilton New Zealand our housing market has performance last 20 years

March 1994  –  419 Houses sold in Hamilton

March 2014  –  255 Houses sold in Hamilton

‘Hey, we have 35% more houses than we did 20 years ago’, I hear you ‘shout’.  Yes, that’s right!!.  So, don’t tell me or shout from the roof tops about a booming market.

In the last 7 years we have averaged 233 sales per year, in the 7 years prior we averaged 343 sales per annum  –  No boom exists, it never did exist and it did not need Reserve Bank interference to stop the so called boom.

 

March 1992-2014 Sales

 

March 2014 Rise and Fall of House Sales 2004 - 2013March 2014 House Price Movement 2009 - 2014

March 2014 Sales and days to sell

March 2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 Months

March 2014 Suburban Break down of Sales

March 2014 Suburban Break down of Median Sale Prices

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Residential Statistics for Hamilton and other New Zealand Cities for February 2014

Hamilton Real Estate Market Takes a Knock

In fact, the New Zealand Residential Sale Market is slowing according to sales volumes released today by REINZ.

After the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) years of 2008-2011, where we saw a slump in the Hamilton and indeed the New Zealand Residential Sale market place, a well deserved minor recovery occurred in the year 2011-2012.

For example this saw sales numbers in Hamilton increase from 2011 (162) in February through to February 2012 (246).

Yeah  –  we are on the way to a more stable market place  –  or so we thought said Greig Metcalfe of LJ Hooker, George Boyes & Co Ltd.  This stabilized through to 2013 (245 Hamilton sales) and with all the hype you would have thought this February 2014 would be set for expansion.

Now February 2014 has slumped sales volume wise in Hamilton to 193 sales  –  that is a massive 53 sales or 21% volume drop.

Interesting  –  most of New Zealand seems to be following the same trend, Auckland down 9%, Dunedin 16%, Wellington 13% and of course Hamilton 21%.  The only major Region to have increase in sales is Christchurch (28 sales) plus 5% and Tauranga (11 sales) plus 5%.

So what of value  –  the median sales value in Hamilton in the last 12 months measured in February has increased from $334,000 to $375,000  –  that’s a $41,000 increase .

What can we draw from this?

Sales are down and value is up – unusual.  Days to sell are extending (up to 46 days to sell on average).  This from 30 days in December.

LVR (Loan-to-Value Ratio)  –  hurts the Regions.  No boom existed in Real Estate last year in the Regions  –  the Reserve Bank’s application of 20% deposits to the Regions was and is a clear mistake  –  when only Auckland and Christchurch were getting excited.

This recovery we are in is very patchy and evidence to support this is emerging every day.

February 2014 Rise and Fall of House Sales 1992 - 2013

February 2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 Months

February 2014 Sales and days to sell

 February 2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 MonthsFebruary Median Sale Prices Compared  with CV's Monthly over last 13 Months

February 2014 Suburban Break down of Sales

February 20143 Suburban Break down of Median Sale Prices

February 2014 Major City Sales Summary

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Residential Statistics for Hamilton and other New Zealand Cities for January 2014

Wow  –  What is happening in the Regions?

January sale numbers in Hamilton have trended down for the last two years.

This comes after a lift in sales in the January 2011 though to January 2012 of 100 sales (88 – 188)  –  but since then we see 183 last year (January) and now January 2014  – 156.

So where is this boom in real estate we all keep hearing about?  Even in Hamilton we have less than forthright commentators trying to talk the market up with broad sweeping comments like “buyer enquiry is unbelievable”, when in fact the numbers speak to a far more subdued market.

In the greater city sales we see Auckland up 121 (7%) and Christchurch up 40 (12%)  –  all other Centres are down between  -7% through -27%.

The so called boom Centres Auckland and Christchurch are sucking infrastructure and people out of the regions (why work as a carpenter in Dunedin for $30/hr when you can go to Christchurch and earn $70/hr?).  This is obviously going to exasperate the skill shortage in the regions  –  then of course they don’t need to buy or rent a house in the regions and the knock on effect continues.

LVR  –  restrictions have had a marked effect on all markets.  It has dampened the Auckland and Christchurch market but rained cats and dogs on the regions.  The regions  –  never had a housing bubble only our two big brothers did.  The application of the LVR nationally instead of just in major growth areas (Auckland and Christchurch) was a clear mistake.  This needs adjustment and just like the reserval for new home package, the restriction needs to come off the regions.

That’s my take, what is yours?   Feedback appreciated.

 

January 2014 Rise and Fall of House Prices 1992 - 2013

January 2014 Median Sale Prices Monthly over last 13 MonthsJanuary 2014 Sales and days to sell

January 2014 Median Sales Prices 2004 to 2014

January 2004 Median Sales Compared with Median CV's 2004 to 2014

January 20143 Suburban Break down of Median Sale Prices

January 2014 Suburban Break down of Sales

January 2014 Major City Sales Summary

 

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Hamilton and NZ Larger City Housing Statistics for October 2013

NEW ZEALAND LARGER CITIES

Comments:  Only Dunedin achieved an  increase in sales in October. All other major cities suffered a decrease ranging from -26%  to -1%. Maybe  Graeme Wheeler policies are having an affect.

All Major Cities October 2013

HAMILTON

Comments: I thought it was interesting to note how the ‘booms’ and ‘busts’ in the housing sales market have followed a reasonably consistent pattern since 1995. A high in 1995 dropping in 2000, five years later, to a low. Three years later a high again in 2003.  7 years later  2010, another low and then another trend upwards  followed by a drop in October this year . Maybe we shouldn’t take too much notice of this. With any luck it’s just a hiccup and the upward trend will come back in November and continue on, healthily, in the right direction.

Rise and fall of sales from 1995 to 2013 October 2013

 HAMILTON FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2013

Comments:  Although there was a steady rise in sales from February through to May the market seems to have settled over the  last few months. October 2013 about 2% down compared with October 2012.

Median sale prices  have increased over the last 12 months showing an increase of nearly 7% in October 2013 over October 2012.

#Sold and Days to Sell October 2013

Median Sale Prices Each Month Over Last Year October 2013

Comment: There has been extensive drop in the number of houses sold in Hamilton from October 2003 to October 2013.  in fact 85 %. The lower number sold the longer it has taken to sell them, in most cases.

The Median Sale price in October 2013 around 50% greater than October 2003.

Sold and Days to sell October 2003 - 2013

Median Sale Prices 2003 - 2013 October

 HAMILTON SUBURBAN BREAKDOWNS

Comment: The number of sales in each suburb are  consistent in that the top  4 keep holding their place. Likewise with median prices.

Suburban Sales October 2013

Suburban Median Prices October 2013

 

 

 

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Surveying the Rise and Fall in House Sales in Hamilton From September 1995 to September 2013

Comment:

Demonstrating the ‘Boom and Bust Cycle’

Rise and fall of sales from 1995 to 2013 September 2013

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