House Sales April 2018
Okay steady compared to April 2017 with just 3 less sales this April – but what is interesting is that the median value has increased some $24,000 or so.
Sales numbers at the what really is the lower end of the scale are really a reflection of the lack of property for sale. Demand is still high for great houses but supply is low and slow coming to the market. In short if we had more we could sell more!
House Sales March 2018
House Sales February 2018
A gentle recovery in house sales numbers is underway in the Hamilton Market – this due to more first home buyers being in the market, slightly easier finance terms and the odd investor.
House Sales January 2018
The downward spiral of falling house sales numbers we saw stabilize in December seems set to continue – this based on January sales being up on those of 2017. That increase being 21.
That was a 15% increase year on end. Very positive for 2018.
House Sales For December 2017
Do Decembers result show a stabilization in the house sale number – decreases we saw in 2017.
Yes!!!!! Okay one sale down on December 16 (268/267), but I think we will call that ‘parr’. Also we saw Auckland City Centre and surrounds up in sales for the month as well.
Going into 2018 we see banks back at 90% lending and some excellent rates available.
So Jacinda is excited about her news – hope she has’nt forgotten that we are 5 months into her reign now and we have 10,000 extra houses to build this year. None yet so that leaves 7 months for 10k extra.
Rentals are in short supply. Yes your costs associated with owning a rental are up and going up more once Labour, NZ First and the Greens tell us there plans. But rents are up and set to go higher as supply tightens. Remember when most others are out of the market that is the time to be in – buy now is my advise.
So if you appreciate this blog call LJHooker now for great real estate service.
House Sales for November 2017
What do you think of the November house sale numbers. Well at 262 probably not a lot of excitement. The result is 23% down on last November and that November was 15% down on the peak November sales result seen in 2015.
Now in December as we write this, sales are still happening and its the middle of the month – shortly we are heading into the Christmas New Year slow down – then out of the blocks in January.
So Whats Ahead in 2018? Well let’s see, interest rates are still very low and set to remain at the current levels for sometime, jobs are plentiful if you want one and have any sort of work ethic, and house prices have stabilized if not come down in some area’s – the sun is sunshine and we all feel good about the future under a big spending Labour Government – as all that spending rolls out it can only be good for the real estate market.
So my advise would be buy now buy wisely. Merry Christmas to you all Greig
House Sale For October 2017
Yeah for an election gone – gone to a market far away.
The market excitement that was forthcoming after the last election in 2014 was what? Well if you look at the graph below and rising values you can see that it was catch up for the years 2007 – 2013 where we saw no growth at all in the Hamilton or Waikato markets – in fact values dropped 4 – 8 % in real terms.
Now we have had a short period of sales and value catch up from ’14 – ’16. By late 2016 the market had peaked and was starting the trend down. Not in a bad way but certainly stabilizing and coming off the peaks. This trend has continued in 2017 which also had a wet cold winter then the fight between Jacinda and Bill. Now that is out of the way we will see in 2018 a rush to get the promises and associated spending out there. Remember Jacinda is going to build 10,000 extra houses this year and with 2 months already gone we have not yet seen 1.
Okay in fairness it is going to take some time to gear up for this and then find the money – so in 2018 we should see some real action in housing across all area’s.
My prediction is – a medium to strong real estate market for next year followed by strong to outstanding market for 2019.
What does your crystal ball say?
House Sales For September 2017
Extremely flat market at the moment – which is usual for election time. At 254 sales we are looking at sale numbers lower than those achieved in the very early 1990’s – look back at the graph directly below and you can see just how flat. Add to the fact that Hamilton now has 10,000 more houses that it did in that period and you get a could idea of just how slow the market is.
House Sales For August 2017
The real estate market slumbers under uncertain election times.
We have now seen 12 months of data post the real estate markets peek in 2016 – this correction was always going to happen it always does – but in this instance we saw artificial constraints being placed on the market by the RBNZ. This caused the correction cycle to double dip and in major markets in the north and now well spread to the south we see sales volumes down some 30%. AN OVER CORRECTION!!!
Now we have the mother of all elections on our hands and the uncertainly created has stalled action on all sorts of fronts.
So what of 2018 – well so long as we get a stable government of any flavor we will see catch up in 2018 – lots of money being thrown at housing with politicians trying to live up to all those promises.
House Sales For July 2017
If you follow this blog you will recall that 13 months ago I was forecasting a market on the verge of slowdown. The Hamilton value recovery following 9 years of post GFC, had happened in 2015 – 16.
During the GFC Hamilton values eased 4 – 8% and stayed that way for the entire period for the average house. On average over a 30 year period Hamilton values increase 8 – 10% per year – so 9 years of stagnant value increases during the GFC was bound to be caught up at some stage – and it was in 15/16.
Let me give you some first hand evidence of Hamilton value increases which on average are 10% per year. I started real estate in 1989 (not yet a full 30 years) and in that time I was based in Melville/Glenview very much a first home area. The average house value was $90,000 – today it is $400,000 – well over 3 times the 1989 value.
So What is my Point? You know back then the cry was first home buyers cannot get into the market place values are to high – this is not sustainable! Remember interest rates where 13 – 17% then as well. Just like today except interest rates are 5% – cheap.
Artificial Market Dampeners – so 13 months ago the market was peaking and with the 2017 election year looming always a quiet year for real estate. But the media and social commentators were in full force decrying the cost of housing and lack of housing supply. The Reserve Bank and the Government for a long period held fast believing the market would peak and stabilize naturally, but then as the cry grew to a ear pinching wail, gave way and introduced artificial market dampeners – namely the 60% threshold for investors and 20% for first home buyers – all this when the market had already peaked.
Now we have the situation where the market has slumped 30% (sale numbers) and media calls are being made to remove the constraints placed on the banks by the RBNZ.
House Sales For June 2017
Not to exciting when you look at the result being 22% down on last year which in itself was 13 or 14% down on May 2015.
Yes in early winter we all feel the cold and hunker down and yes we don’t feel much better until we are over the shortest day and then some – but it only takes a semi – spring day some sunshine and then we get that warm active feel. Lets face it the country is in great shape every which way you look – tax cuts, record tourism, Hamilton projected to be NZ’s second largest city in 25 years time, farmers with their heads up and – The American Cup so what more could we want!
So with all that is happening in the Tron now is a great time for a first homer, traderupper or downer or just you to be doing business in the property market in our city and region.
To get into it, call one of your Hamilton L J Hooker sales people they will guide you along this exciting path.
House Sales For May 2017
Last month of Autumn before the long winter then heading towards Septembers Nation election.
Okay 15% down on sales from last year but last year was the best May since pre-GFC days, namely 2003 – 2006.
House Sales For April 2017
House Sales For March 2017
Not bad at 335 sales but well down at -19% based on last years result. The trend now of a slow 2017 market is well settled – as we move to the winter and the election expect more of the same.
House Sales For February 2017
Has Hamilton caught Auckland’s cold? Probably – sale number are down with 263 this month.
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics Comparisons for January 2017
Okay at 141 house sales, but we are looking at the worst January result for 6 years. Yes January is always slow but only for 3 years in the heart of the GFC did we see worse results.
In the good old days that market would come away after Anniversary weekend towards the end of January – now that Waitangi Day is Mondayised it means that in 4 years out of seven Waitangi weekend will mean another long weekend – this does slow the market and cost the country millions as well as meaning a slow start to the real estate year
So What is Happening? Well the real estate so called boom of late 2014 through 2015 and 2016 is over – at least in the meantime as we settle into the election year of 2017. Post the election? – well that’s the 64 million dollar question is it not? – but all you can be certain of is that we will get one of two outcomes!
- A Labour-led combination of them, the Greens, Winston and maybe another outsider promising to building an extra 100,000 Sates Houses in the next 10 years – that being over and above the 11,000 odd that market produces at the moment and that will create a real estate boom like this country has never seen.
- Or our old friends National with steady as she goes – but no doubt also having had to make more promises along the election trail about how they are going to get more real estate supply into the market place. The result being another real estate upturn as the market moves away from the slow 2017 breather.
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics for December 2016
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics Comparisons for November 2016
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics Comparisons for October 2016
Hamilton September 2016 House Sales Crash – Down 33% in Sales Numbers
But lets put this into perspective!
Yes September 2015 was Hamilton’s best real estate month forever
Yes September 2015 was the best month since Hamilton’s real estate recovery began in December 2014
Yes 303 sales in September 2016 is still a respectable number
So Why has this happened? A combination of reasons sit behind the dramatic 33% downturn. The number is a reflection of available property to sell – this being far lower than last year, the settling in of banking restrictions and in particular the 40% investor equity requirements. Two things took investors by surprise following the RBNZ announcing this in late July (due to start 1 October). 1 – banks imposed the restriction immediately on a voluntary basis and 2 – that it applied to the investors whole portfolio not just the next purchase.
On the positive side – interest rates are at historic lows and are set to go lower. Good value is still to be had in Hamilton and extreme value still to be had in Waikato Towns.
All in all balance has now come to the market and further RBNZ or government imposed restrictions should not be necessary.
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics Comparisons for August 2016
The Hamilton real estate market continues to settle to sustainable levels. August saw sales down 12% from August 2016 (12%). This has not been caused by the 40 LVR restrictions for NZ investor – the effect of this we are yet to see flow through in a meaningful way. Remember this is last months data and these days data can change like the wind.
Looking into September thus far solid real estate is still being done. Listing numbers are up as you would expect going into spring and confidence is high – with the NZ economy have just received a huge tick being the No3 ranked economy for growth and all round performance in the OECD.
So go out and buy great real estate for the long term. Lets not speculate lets be productive and help drive NZ Inc.
Hamilton July House Sales Contiue to Settle from 2015 Peak
July continued the trend we have seen in 2016 in that sales numbers are down around 10% overall. Yes values are up but don’t forget the Waikato and Hamilton markets had no growth in the 7 years of the GFC being 2007 until December 2014. On average house prices in the area have increased in value by 10% per annum – so catch up had a long way to go when finally arrived.
Hamilton House Sales continue to Ease in June 2016
This being May’s comment below and now the trend continues with a 12% reduction is Hamilton House sales in June 2016. At this point the commentators out there crying for some dramatic market intervention need to pull there heads in and concentrate on bring more land into the supply chain so reasonable priced sections can come into the market place – thus more houses can be built.
“Mr Wheeler lets not panic about house sales – self levelling is stabilising the market place. With 354 sales in Hamilton in May you could certainly not claim the market is anywhere near out of control. Look back to the early 1990’s when we had sales of 329, 357, 308 and 334 – this with 8000 fewer houses in Hamilton.”
House Sale in May 2016 ease to Sustainable levels
Mr Wheeler lets not panic about house sales – self levelling is stabilising the market place. With 354 sales in Hamilton in May you could certainly not claim the market is anywhere near out of control. Look back to the early 1990’s when we had sales of 329, 357, 308 and 334 – this with 8000 fewer houses in Hamilton.
What about the debt to income claim being out of control. Is it really so out of so called control.
In the 1990’s borrowers faced interest rates of 9 – 13% if they were very lucky, in the last sales upsurge in the 2000’s, rates were 7.9 – 9.9% again if you were lucky with many rates higher. Then borrowers were borrowing 4 – 5 times income to buy a house. Today with rates at levels of 3.95 – 5% some bank customers are borrowing we are told 7 – 10 times income. Is this really any different to yesterday or are the borrowers just able to service more because of low interest rates – well yes of course.
But! – I here you say what if rates increase markedly? The borrower can no longer pay the interest – well that’s as it has always been, in every market era.
However! – with world inflation beaten into negative territory in some cases the chances of increased interest rates anytime soon are a pipe dream – in fact you are likely to see even lower interest rates soon.
So Mr Reserve Bank Governor – don’t be panicked by the pressing media and populist economic commentators – worry about getting more houses into the market place both for new owners, new renters and social housing. Supply (more housings goodness sake) will fix the problem, economic tinkering will only see more people on the streets, more overcrowding
Stunning Median House Value Increase of 31%
So lets not talk of sales numbers so much as they continue to be strong in the Tron – but more about the value growth behind those sales. As the tables below shows based on the median Hamilton values have increased $107,000 in the last 12 months.
This value increase is a reflection of demand and the fact that Hamilton is in catch up mode. This following the 9 years of stagnant growth during the GFC.
It is also a reflection of the value in the existing or second hand house market. When you are paying $350K for the cheapest section in town then building a new home say 220 m2 at the rate of $2000 per square metres then your package quickly adds up to $800,000. This make quality older homes in leafier inner city suburbs look real value.
Don’t expect this to change any time soon with expressways to the north opening up in Rangiriri, under way in Huntly/Taupiri not to mention Horsham downs to Tamahere.
Exciting times for the Tron – City of the future
26% increase in March 2016 House Sales
March house sales are right up there with the sales of 1994, 1996 & 2005 as the chart below shows.
Although it is reflective when you note that over 20 years ago Hamilton sales in the mid 1990’s were higher in number than our latest peak in March 2016. Add this to the fact that the city now has 8 thousand more homes and you get a balanced reflection of our times.
The media and commentators are at the moment fixated on house sales, the demand, the prices being achieved and the shortage of homes. This is nothing new as our previous sale records show – in fact when you take into account the extra dwellings in the city at the moment and sales on a low par with those of the mid 1990’s & 2000’s you get a more balanced view – that being that the boom of the moment actually has some way to go yet before parity is achieved with those earlier periods.
Hamilton & February Housing Sales Stable
The month of February saw a slight easing of home sales in Hamilton. Just 4 less than February 2015.
This is not a reflection of buyer interest but more a factor of less housing stock for sale. A survey of a Hamilton Real Estate sales group recently showed that 39% of all sales people in the agency did not have a listing – which is reflective of the stock levels.
Demand continues to be high for limited stock.
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics Comparisons for January 2016
The Year of the LISTING
2015 was the year of the sale as the uplifted in the Hamilton market sold through its long held stock. This from came from investors waiting to sell out when the market improved and other sellers doing the same.
This based on the fact that the improved Hamilton market only showed its evidence in December 2014 with improved sale – this post Hamilton buyer interest getting into gear after the September 2014 elections.
This year will see stock levels remain low – today 551 properties are for sale in Hamilton (ex sections), and of those 50% would be under contract.
L J Hooker George Boyes is promoting set or deadline sales – let us show you how you can have all the market competing for your property not just the 30% who might be able to buy unconditionally at an auction. Set sales are achieving for sellers thousands of dollars in premium.
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics for December 2015
Sustainable and Renewable – as we complete the calendar year of sales in Hamilton, we see that the market peak of September with 457 sales through to Decembers 338 sales (graph 3 x below) thus easing into a strong sustainable market.
LJHooker George Boyes market share has tripled during this time and for us December sales were the same as those achieved in September even through the market eased. So that result is very rewarding.
LJHooker George Boyes is not caught up in the Cartel price fixing charges laid by the Commerce Commission in December against all but two Hamilton Agencies. This will play out during the year and hopeful break up the ‘Cartel’ thus allowing more competition into the market place – and as a result a better deal for the consumer.
HAMILTON HOUSE SALES NOVEMBER 2015
November is a peak month in the real estate calendar for sales activity. This November Hamilton has achieved a very pleasing level of sales at 400 for the month. This is however down from the 457 in September.
The market has steadied and that is a good move. A strong but stable market in the Tron is 320 – 400 sales per month. At 400 the market is at the very top of that range but you would expected that for a November.
Here at LJHOOKER George Boyes we are listing for the new year currently. I am working through so that many of the companies staff can have a well deserved break. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A REAL ESTATE SERVICE AND WANT TO DO BUSINESS CALL ME NOW FOR A REAL DEAL ON YOUR COMMISSION RATE.
MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A GREAT NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL!
GREIG METCALFE 021 995071 email@example.com
Hamilton House Sales October 2015
Cooling of a strong Market
The third graph below shows the cooling of the Hamilton Market place in October against previous months. The house sales result of 370 sales by all REINZ agencies is the lowest in the last 5 months.
The result at 370 is still very respectable but does show the first signs of the market having stepped back from the peak of 457 sales last month.
So Mr Reserve Bank governor and others – you know who you are – relax a little as certainly Auckland is cooling and now Hamilton is also showing signs of a slowing, all be it a soft landing hopefully.
Hamilton Residential Sales Statistics Comparisons for September 2015
Early Spring Sales continue to Mount
Hamilton the City of the future has been well and truly found by investors, owner occupiers and Auckland escapeessssssssss.
With express-way sections being completed to Cambridge and infill sections starting at the back of Huntly we can only look forward to more of the same.
Hamilton – Value has been discovered
Some sales people and agents are talking the Hamilton Market up and even talking of a boom.
The best August on record for real estate sales was August 2005 at 424 sales and yes with this months result of 407 sales you might at a casual view think we are almost back to that level and as such must be booming. But what has they forgotten? – just 10 years – during which time an average of 800 consent were issued per annum. So that tells us Hamilton is 8000 home richer than 2005.
At present Hamilton has around 55,000 homes of various types. So while 407 is a good result it is nothing like the 424 sales of 2005 – to equal that record we would need to get to 500 sales per month.
Real Estate Sales Report for Hamilton New Zealand in July 2015
We need no better illustration of the life in the Hamilton House sale market than we see in the graph directly below. Two hundred more house sales in July 2015 over 2014. Yes Hamilton had a very quiet market last year waiting for the election to come and go and Auckland and NZ to discover the value in the TRON. Well wait no more – 401 sales is the best result on record.
L J Hooker Hamilton has a sales team of 16 staff all experts in there different areas of the city. We are achieving stunning results for vendors. Our Hamilton office supports the property sales with New Zealand’s Top Property Management Team – winner of L J Hooker Harveys Property Manager of the Year (Natasha Metcalfe-Black).
So if you are thinking of selling ring our award winning Team Now
Detailed Real Estate Sales Report for Hamilton New Zealand in June 2015
June 2015 Statistics:
Hamilton Real Estate Sales
Best June for 10 Years
At 385 House Sales for all Hamilton Sales offices, we see the best June sales numbers for 10 years.
Now, you might wonder why sales are buoyant when Hamilton sits in the middle of Rural Heartland New Zealand and dairy farmers are struggling?
Could it be:
- Hamilton sits in the middle of the Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty golden triangle?
- Land Transport lines are bringing Auckland and Hamilton into commuting range?
- Large Tertiary centre?
- Huge medical Centre – with Southern Hemispheres largest hospital?
- Afforable housing – compared to Auckland?
Hamilton house prices have sat firm with little growth in value for 8 years now. Auckland has been booming for 4 years now.
The only question was when would Auckland wake up to Hamilton’s potential? The answer to that arrived post last years election. We saw improvement in November and real growth in December sales numbers – 97 up on 2014.
Since then, month on month sales have improved. Until now not reaching the peak of 2004 – 2007. But this month we have seen at 385 sales a peak well ahead of past highs.
CRYSTAL BALL COUNTRY.
Hamilton growth and property market recovery is only 7 months old, with so much pent up value in its market and Auckland breathing down Hamilton’s neck – it surely must be onwards and upwards.
May 2015 Statistics:
A Bit About Hamilton
Hamilton is New Zealand’s largest inland city, situated on the banks of the Waikato River, (the country’s longest river), the city encompasses a land area of about 110 km and it is New Zealand’s fourth most-populous city. Hamilton has a welcoming spirit, rich history and contrasting splendours that await many a visitor.
The earliest recorded settlers in the Hamilton area were Maori from the Tainui waka. The Tainui people called an area on the west bank of the Waikato River Kirikiriroa (long stretch of gravel), which is the Maori name for Hamilton today. The area was later renamed Hamilton after Captain John Charles Fane Hamilton, who was killed at the battle of Gate Pa in Tauranga in 1864.
The Hamilton area has a history of 700-800 years of Maori occupation and settlement, highlighted by pa sites, traditional gardens and agricultural features along the Waikato River. The main hapu of Hamilton/Kirikiriroa and the surrounding area are Ngati Wairere, Ngati Haua and Ngati Mahanga.
In 1863, the New Zealand Settlement Act enabled land to be taken from Maori by the Crown. This resulted in 1.2 million hectares of land being confiscated in the Waikato region, and part of this land provided the basis for European settlement in Hamilton.
Formal European settlement was established on 24 August 1864, when Captain William Steele came off the gunboat Rangiriri and established the first redoubt near what is now known as Memorial Park.
A military outpost was set up in Hamilton East, which was originally destined to be the main street of Hamilton. Evidence of planning for the centre of the village can be seen in the ‘village square’ concept of Steele Park and the planting of ‘English’ trees along Grey Street.
The road from Auckland reached Hamilton in 1867 and the railway in December 1877. That same month, the towns of Hamilton West and Hamilton East merged under a single borough council. The first traffic bridge between Hamilton West and Hamilton East, known as the Union Bridge, opened in 1879. It was replaced by the Victoria Bridge in 1910.
The first railway bridge, the Claudelands Bridge, was opened in 1884. It was converted to a road traffic bridge in 1965. Hamilton reached 1,000 people in 1900, and the town of Frankton merged with the Hamilton Borough in 1917. Between 1912 and 1936, Hamilton expanded with new land in Claudelands (1912), Maeroa (1925), and Richmond – modern day Waikato Hospital and northern Melville (1936). Hamilton was proclaimed a city in 1945.
The Borough of Hamilton was established in 1877 with a population of 1,245 and an area of 752 hectares. In December 1945, Hamilton became a city with 20,000 citizens and now has a population over 140,000. On 10 March 2013 a statue was erected in honour of Captain John Charles Fane Hamilton, the man whom the city is named after.
Initially an agricultural service centre, Hamilton now has a growing and diverse economy, from magnificent parks and gardens to a thriving cultural precinct, the city offers a vibrant combination of fine dining and nightlife options as well as an electric mix of leisure, lifestyle and activity choices. There are many parks, gardens, historic houses, museums and other places of interest in and around Hamilton, popular attractions include Hamilton Gardens, Waikato Stadium, Seddon Park, Founders Theatre and the Hamilton Lake Domain. George Boyes & Company Limited (trading as LJ Hooker Real Estate) is Hamilton’s oldest Real Estate Company, established in 1906.
Being in the hub of central North Island, there is easy access to other iconic attractions such as Hobbiton, Waitomo Caves, Raglan’s surf coast and the historic Te Aroha Mineral Pools and much more.
April 2015 Statistics:
March 2015 Statistics :
Confidence Returns to the Tron
Hamilton has in 2015 seen a recovery in house sales. This is reinforced by Hamilton’s February Sales Figures, of 306 sales. This being the highest February result since 2007 and the GFC (Global Financial Crisis). Sales of 306 is also 109 sales or 55% up on the February 2014 result of 197 sales.
In October, November and December of last year, I referred firstly to the ‘Fish are Nibbling’ and then as we closed the year with strong December Sales I described the result as the ‘Fish are Biting’.
So; get in now! – Buy and Commute, Buy and Invest, Buy and Enjoy. BUT buy now while you can!
February 2015 Statistics:
January 2015 Statistics:
Let’s Go Fishing
In our October blog I referred to the ‘Fish Nibbling’ – the Auckland Market moving closer and a lot of enquiry. Well; I can now say fish have moved in shore and are now biting.
301 Sales of houses in December and lots of section sales. I would not call it a frenzy, but certainly the value in Hamilton has been discovered – and why not!!
Hamilton is New Zealand’s city of the future. Lots of industry and jobs, lots of spaces to enjoy and great Real Estate to buy at reasonable prices.
2015 is set to be an exciting year with inflation dropping below 1%, Interest Rates down, petrol prices down, employment opportunities and lots of confidence.
So; get your buying hat on and get going before it is too late!
December 2014 Statistics:
November 2014 Statistics:
Like the Fish are Nibbling!!!
Ever been fishing? You know the big one is there but all you are getting at the moment are little nibbles – well, this is the Hamilton Residential Property Sales Market at the moment!
Fish are nibbling but the tide is moving our way and the birds are circling.
What of October? Traditionally one of our peak sale months. Rather disappointingly we are down 8 sales on October 2013 and in October 1994 (20 years ago) there were 296 sales – sobering.
Good news though, LJ Hooker – George Boyes, Northern Offices and teams in Ngaruawahia, Huntly, Te Kauwhata and Pokeno are as busy as bees. Sales are ‘way’ up with activity spreading from Auckland, this has definitely been the case Huntly North for three months or so and this month it reached Ngaruawahia with 13 sales instead of the normal 4 – 5.
So is Hamilton next ? Okay, we will have to wait until the New Year (February-ish) before we see the results, but my pick is very strong capital growth as the Hamilton Market catches up with some of the gains made by its Auckland cousin.
Post Election Hamilton House Sales Continue to Slump?…
Goodbye to Winny and full stop – so sad Hone! – Nice to get a stable Government where we can quickly get on with business.
All the Election drama of the September Sales month leaves little to say – lets just leave September alone, the tri-yearly Election plays havoc with the normal sales politics of this month – So, no comment on the normal influences pertaining to the month just the facts.
September 1992 – 256 Hamilton Sales
September 2013 – 253 Hamilton Sales
September 2014 – 226 House Sales
The Real Hamilton Real Estate News (August 2014)
Do you believe all you are told?
Does Kim Dotcom go to the toilet in the woods and does Winston Peters like people from Asia?
Then don’t believe the Hamilton Real Estate news as per paid agency advertisements, designed to mislead the market – ‘Increased Buyer Demand’ – Balony!
2013 – 261 August Sales
2014 – 196 August Sales
A decrease of 65 or so 25% in 12 months!
This is on par with 1992 when 195 houses sold.
Median Sale value is down from July, dropping to $346,500 from $350,000.
So, if you want the real oil on house sales and not a real estate news beat up, follow this blogg – only here will you get the good, the bad and the truth.
On a Brighter Note
Raglan is booming with lots of sales and our Ngaruawahia team is coming away with sales starting to build albeit from very low levels.
The North Waikato is away with lots of sales and a very happy team in our Huntly office. Nice that our decision to open in Huntly is paying off – we have a very strong belief in the future of this area, being on Auckland’s doorstep.
Lastly – Commercial, strong leasing and sales volumes – Lots of new businesses wanting to establish in ‘The Tron’ – many from Auckland looking for stable workforces and lower costs of doing business.
We have two farms sold so far in the last month and the ‘Farm Selling’ season has not yet started.
So, plenty to be positive about still, but will somebody please set the fire going under Hamilton house sales!
Where have all the buyers gone?
The Real Hamilton Real Estate News….
Next time you hear self interested Real Estate commentators talking the Hamilton Market up – remember that they have 6-8 Real Estate offices full on hungry Salespeople all looking to believe in New Zealand’s great Real Estate boom.
The truth is, it was and is a myth.
Sure, as we now see, the market had a false lift in 2013, but the Reserve Bank quickly turned that recovering market off by increasing interest rates and applying loan to value ratios (LVR) on mortgages
Yes, everybody has a job rebuilding Christchurch and Auckland is buoyed by immigration and returning Kiwi’s – but in the regions, recession is quickly setting in and any recovery is long gone.
Why do I talk this way?!
July’s result of 201 house sales compared with 252 (2013), 207 (2012) and 204 (2011), this a 4 year low.
How about this for a wake up call – in the early to mid 1990’s, sales were 241 (1992), 246 (1993), 299 (1994), 294 (1995). Now, 20 years later with some 10,000 more homes in the city, we can only manage sale levels less than those of 20 years ago.
Is there a bright side?
Spring is on our doorstep, the elections will be over in time for us to do some business pre-Christmas, unless Kim Dotcom becomes Prime Minister and if that happens we will all have a merry old time.
Where has the missing Month Gone – Gone to the LVR far far away!!!!!!!!
What is LVR – the 20% deposit imposed by the reserve bank before a loan can be gained.
Take time to look at this first sales graph below – it tracks sale number back to June 1992, you will see that in the 4 years 1992 through 1995, 984 houses sold and in the last 4 years 920 sales – this across all agencies. That is 240 less sales over that period which equals a missing month of sales.
Now you tell me how many more homes exist in Hamilton today? Well a quick survey here puts it around 35 – 40 % more residential properties in Hamilton today – is a picture forming in your mind right about now? I would think so.
All this talk of a real estate boom is just that, talk – certainly in the regions but even in Auckland and Christchurch the talk does not match numbers.
So who would be interested in talking up the NZ economy and blaming house sales for rising interest rates. Well who needs positive affirmation about the economy right now – would it be a Government about to go to the voters – interesting question!!
What of the future – more of the same for the balance of 2014 with gradual improvement forecast for 2015
Hamilton and the rest of NZ continues to struggle under the weight of LVR restrictions on the back of the GFC contraction world wide – lets not forget this whole mess was created by big banks and big bankers.
I must continue to highlight that the Regions have never had a real estate boom – only Auckland and Christchurch had a so called boom in sales and that is well gone with sales now down in all sectors for May.
Be sure to see the last graph in the set below to see what all the major centres are doing but with Auckland down 9% (213 sales)for February, 10% (324 sales) for March and now 15% (415 sales) in May – clearly any real commentator with no outside barrow to push can see that the heat is gone from the market.
House Sales Subside
Hamilton House sales continue to contract in the post LVR world.
At the moment, there is a lot of hype out there about how well the New Zealand economy is doing. Well, apart from dairy farmers (drought aside) and banks (huge bank profits registered) the only sectors doing okay are Auckland and Christchurch. The regions continue to suffer.
This month’s huge drop in house sales for Hamilton highlights the fragile market place.
This month’s (April 2014) sales results in the entire Hamilton house sales market place was 204 against 250 for 2013 – returning to sales levels close to the depressing post global financial crisis years.
The market could now under perform until post the elections set for September 2014.
Check out this link for the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand….. https://www.reinz.co.nz/reinz/index.cfm?1CB561D5-18FE-7E88-42FB-507342EF7F81&obj_uuid=CEDC8B41-15BA-494F-81FF-70757FDE27B5
NEW ZEALAND LARGE CITIES
No Housing Boom in New Zealand Real Estate Market
The edge continues to come off the Nations (New Zealand) so called housing boom.
In Hamilton New Zealand our housing market has performance last 20 years
March 1994 – 419 Houses sold in Hamilton
March 2014 – 255 Houses sold in Hamilton
‘Hey, we have 35% more houses than we did 20 years ago’, I hear you ‘shout’. Yes, that’s right!!. So, don’t tell me or shout from the roof tops about a booming market.
In the last 7 years we have averaged 233 sales per year, in the 7 years prior we averaged 343 sales per annum – No boom exists, it never did exist and it did not need Reserve Bank interference to stop the so called boom.
Hamilton Real Estate Market Takes a Knock
In fact, the New Zealand Residential Sale Market is slowing according to sales volumes released today by REINZ.
After the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) years of 2008-2011, where we saw a slump in the Hamilton and indeed the New Zealand Residential Sale market place, a well deserved minor recovery occurred in the year 2011-2012.
For example this saw sales numbers in Hamilton increase from 2011 (162) in February through to February 2012 (246).
Yeah – we are on the way to a more stable market place – or so we thought said Greig Metcalfe of LJ Hooker, George Boyes & Co Ltd. This stabilized through to 2013 (245 Hamilton sales) and with all the hype you would have thought this February 2014 would be set for expansion.
Now February 2014 has slumped sales volume wise in Hamilton to 193 sales – that is a massive 53 sales or 21% volume drop.
Interesting – most of New Zealand seems to be following the same trend, Auckland down 9%, Dunedin 16%, Wellington 13% and of course Hamilton 21%. The only major Region to have increase in sales is Christchurch (28 sales) plus 5% and Tauranga (11 sales) plus 5%.
So what of value – the median sales value in Hamilton in the last 12 months measured in February has increased from $334,000 to $375,000 – that’s a $41,000 increase .
What can we draw from this?
Sales are down and value is up – unusual. Days to sell are extending (up to 46 days to sell on average). This from 30 days in December.
LVR (Loan-to-Value Ratio) – hurts the Regions. No boom existed in Real Estate last year in the Regions – the Reserve Bank’s application of 20% deposits to the Regions was and is a clear mistake – when only Auckland and Christchurch were getting excited.
This recovery we are in is very patchy and evidence to support this is emerging every day.
Wow – What is happening in the Regions?
January sale numbers in Hamilton have trended down for the last two years.
This comes after a lift in sales in the January 2011 though to January 2012 of 100 sales (88 – 188) – but since then we see 183 last year (January) and now January 2014 – 156.
So where is this boom in real estate we all keep hearing about? Even in Hamilton we have less than forthright commentators trying to talk the market up with broad sweeping comments like “buyer enquiry is unbelievable”, when in fact the numbers speak to a far more subdued market.
In the greater city sales we see Auckland up 121 (7%) and Christchurch up 40 (12%) – all other Centres are down between -7% through -27%.
The so called boom Centres Auckland and Christchurch are sucking infrastructure and people out of the regions (why work as a carpenter in Dunedin for $30/hr when you can go to Christchurch and earn $70/hr?). This is obviously going to exasperate the skill shortage in the regions – then of course they don’t need to buy or rent a house in the regions and the knock on effect continues.
LVR – restrictions have had a marked effect on all markets. It has dampened the Auckland and Christchurch market but rained cats and dogs on the regions. The regions – never had a housing bubble only our two big brothers did. The application of the LVR nationally instead of just in major growth areas (Auckland and Christchurch) was a clear mistake. This needs adjustment and just like the reserval for new home package, the restriction needs to come off the regions.
That’s my take, what is yours? Feedback appreciated.
Although December, ordinarily, does not perform as a high selling month. Hamilton, Christchurch and Tauranga are all showing an upward trend. With a few exceptions this has been the drift since 2010. A slow recovery but still appears to be happening.
Both monthly sales and selling times are reasonably static with other months of recent times.
Selling prices are showing a consistent rise.
The breakdown for sales and median prices in suburbs are equitable with previous months of 2013
NEW ZEALAND LARGER CITIES
COMMENT: With the exception of Christchurch and Hamilton, major cities in New Zealand, by and large, have shown negative activity for the month of November 2013.
COMMENT: Following the comments made in my last month’s blog, it would appear, The Hamilton Residential sales are still climbing, albeit slowly. The continued climb, could, if it follows previous trends, continue on an upward path
HAMILTON FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2013
COMMENT: Best sales month since last November and time taken to sell houses comparable.
Median sales prices holding their own.
COMMENTS: The number of houses sold; reflects the “boom, bust and boom” scenario that the housing market goes through every 5 years or so.
The other item of interest to me is, in reference to Median Sale price and Government Valuation; the gap which forms during high sale and low sale periods.
HAMILTON SUBURBAN BREAKDOWNS
COMMENT: These two charts indicate the most popular suburbs being bought in and also the elevation of the cost of properties in some suburbs.
NEW ZEALAND LARGER CITIES
Comments: Only Dunedin achieved an increase in sales in October. All other major cities suffered a decrease ranging from -26% to -1%. Maybe Graeme Wheeler policies are having an affect.
Comments: I thought it was interesting to note how the ‘booms’ and ‘busts’ in the housing sales market have followed a reasonably consistent pattern since 1995. A high in 1995 dropping in 2000, five years later, to a low. Three years later a high again in 2003. 7 years later 2010, another low and then another trend upwards followed by a drop in October this year . Maybe we shouldn’t take too much notice of this. With any luck it’s just a hiccup and the upward trend will come back in November and continue on, healthily, in the right direction.
HAMILTON FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER 2013
Comments: Although there was a steady rise in sales from February through to May the market seems to have settled over the last few months. October 2013 about 2% down compared with October 2012.
Median sale prices have increased over the last 12 months showing an increase of nearly 7% in October 2013 over October 2012.
Comment: There has been extensive drop in the number of houses sold in Hamilton from October 2003 to October 2013. in fact 85 %. The lower number sold the longer it has taken to sell them, in most cases.
The Median Sale price in October 2013 around 50% greater than October 2003.
HAMILTON SUBURBAN BREAKDOWNS
Comment: The number of sales in each suburb are consistent in that the top 4 keep holding their place. Likewise with median prices.