Archive for July, 2011

Flog the Donkey

We are in need of a new approach, a better and more innovative way to improve our lives and to forge a much improved future; is the proposed Capital Gains Tax the magic bullet?

There is no end to the invention, craft and guile demonstrated by those of a social reform mind-set; the earnings and savings of others is ever so easy to spend. Half truths and emotive catchphrases serve to muddy and dilute rational debate when actually debate is what is required.

I am no fan of a capital gains tax per se, but was one to be introduced as an integral component of a total tax reform package and the numbers stacked up I am open to persuasion. I am open to the deferment of retirement and the pension; any and all options are free to be cast upon the table. I am uneasy with loose generalisation and emotive branding( i.e applying the word ‘rich’ to describe any aspirational family, any one expecting to enjoy the fruits of their labour and sacrifice,) it genuinely bothers me particularly when in an attempt to marginalise or demonise sections of our community, or in an attempt to avoid detailed scrutiny.

Is a household ‘rich’ if it generates $75,000, or $100,000, or $150,000? What is the definition of rich? There are families whose sole household income is the benefit in one form or another with an income in excess of $100,000. Are they rich, the new marque of success a model to promote in our quest for advancement? They’re a big part of our society.
Of itself, CGT will achieve little other than a little more capital distribution; it is no incentive to perform or stimulus to the economy and is not a wealth generator. Already the signs are that the mooted tax will be riddled with exemption and anomaly; an utter gift to the accountants and lawyers in our society. One of the supposed gains from the tax is the argument that investors will be driven to place their funds in the fiscal Wild West that is the share market. I suspect that it will be easier to herd cats. Neither will the Tax reduce the price of houses or somehow make them more available; homes in the UK and Australia cost more than in NZ and are often more scarce. It is more likely that little will change beyond the increase in weekly rental charges.

The government is not borrowing money as a result of private investors buying real estate; private investors take out their own loans through the Banks. Government borrows to pay for otherwise unaffordable options such as student loans, welfare, working for families etc. . Worth noting that NZ is relatively lightly indebted , consider the following public indebtedness of Governments as a proportion of their GDP- NZ 24.7% , Aus. 22%, Can 82%, USA 69%, UK 73%, France 81%, Germany 75%, Jpn 195% and Sth Africa 31%, Greece 125% and Italy at 117%. Makes you think doesn’t it. (Source the Economist). I think the %ages have altered a little since the article was published but the relativities are probably much the same, a small increase in the GDP of New Zealand would affect the ratio.
The fundamental reason that investors do not invest in the share/bond/ futures markets is essentially lack of trust and knowledge. The tax won’t change either and I am sure recent corporate history will hinder rather than help. Unfortunately we are a financially unsophisticated people, as a result prefer to invest where control and understanding are available – security too.

Inflation over the years has caused anomaly, inflation can be described as the diminishing capacity of money to do its job. A Coca-Cola in ’73 cost approx. 21c, today $2.00. Close to a 10x multiple in $ terms for the same product even given the advantage of new production technologies, it simply takes more money to do the same job, more labour.
In the late 80’s the cost/m2 to build a home was about $7-850, now it costs $1750-2000 and rising. A home purchased 10 years ago in Golflands for $305,000 recently resold for $625,000, just the same except it is 10 years older, the people who bought it could find no better home for the money. It’s not that the vendors made a profit in real terms; they were not able to go buy another similar home for $305,000 and resume their standard of living, simply that as a result of inflation it now takes $2.00 to do the same job that $1.00 could do 10 years ago. An investor would need to receive $2.00 for every $ invested simply to retain the purchasing power of the investment. If the tax applied to the difference between purchase and sale prices the government would basically be taxing inflation. Doesn’t seem right.

Our Tax base is deficient as a result of policies that have resulted in approx. 50% of our work force effectively paying no tax on their incomes after all entitlements are claimed, 40% of the workforce paying 30% of the tax take and a mere 10% of the workforce contributing 70% of the revenue. How do we afford such generosity, such liberal entitlements? There is an absence of justice and equity in those numbers. (Sourced mainly from radio comment so not necessarily 100% accurate, likely to be fairly indicative.)

It is a truism that says ‘what gets rewarded gets done’. We reward irresponsible couples(?) for giving birth to children they cannot support educate or provide for, people for willingly elect to remain uneducated and unskilled, those who elect to eat themselves to obesity and diabetes and we are surprised when such a large section of society take up the option. We do not willingly reward prudence, hard work and sacrifice; acknowledgement seems to be reluctant and grudging, it’s a poor attitude. Focus on the development of self reliance and personal responsibility would probably generate a better outcome, we will sooner or later be compelled to address our imbalances either as a result of internal or, God forbid, external forces.
Greece is in trouble today, heading for a serious financial reckoning with the EU. Simply put the country cannot generate sufficient income to pay for incredibly generous ‘entitlements’ their citizens have come to believe are rights, especially given that tax avoidance is a national sport. Too few people paying too little tax to keep too many who expect too much.

The only difference between Greece and New Zealand is Time.

July 19 2011 | Uncategorized | 3 Comments »

A change in the season.

Probably the best Summer I can remember has definitely come to a close. Whilst it was here it was it was glorious, a simple delight, wrapping all and sundry in the warmth; a significant elevator of the national mood and a reason we managed to keep on trucking.  But it’s over, consigned well and truly to the past, and with every passing gloomy, wet and cold day that passes we seem to become more preoccupied with equally gloomy news and comment. Hands are being sat on in all quarters, procrastination and deferment the games of the day; it seems the national confidence in any sort of positive future is dropping by the minute – certainly if you are in the Real Estate world. If Auckland is doing it hard and leading the recovery (NZ Herald), how hard it must be living life in the country per se. 

Hold on a second; prices continue to hold, rise even in many suburbs, days to sell are not high for sellers there to do the business. We are starting to see evidence of property sold at the 2006-07 peaks reselling and showing increase; we equally see a number of poorly priced and poorly presented property languish. Possibility still presents for constructive change and for that we are luckier than most.

In any country, at any time and market condition, there is always an optimum way to conduct business with a view to maximise returns to stakeholders. The best outcome available is simply that, the best possible result. Excepting fairy tales the best result is never the product of an accident, a super effective spell or the wave of a potent wand. In our world the best of results is always the product of a careful, proven strategy, effectively conducted with frequent review and management. Such a process is open and measurable and results generated easily accepted for what they are; in such cases good decisions can be made and easily absorbed. We can always strive and plan for the best possible result.

The world as we find it at the moment with all the uncertainties, bad news and multitudinous fears is likely to be our environment for a while yet and, unless we are to pass time in a form of limbo, now is a great time to make plans for our changing futures and do the intrepid Kiwi thing of making the best of it. If our house is too big, it will be more so next year or year after, too small now then even more so in time; there is nothing lost in making our changes in the present. We need things to look forward to as much as we need air, change is healthy. Attitude determines whether change is positive or negative, attitude determines the manner in which we react and it is our reactions that create our future.

Today is a good day to be brave and to decide to move to create bigger and better futures. Moving towards the change is scary but the change is coming the variables are the degree to which we take control of the process and the way we choose to react.

The current real estate market is actually very good in Eastern Beaches bar the fact that the volume of sales are low; when volumes do increase the prices will follow. A great time to start your investment portfolio, move to your new bigger or smaller home, plan for a caravan on a holiday site, move to achieving our higher ideas for our lives.

It has always taken courage to dream, we have always been a brave lot.

July 04 2011 | Uncategorized | No Comments »