Archive for the 'New Zealand Real Estate Market' Category
I can sell you this 600 m2 beauty, just outside Tucson, Arizona. came on market new, 2008 at US $6,500,000. Now US $ 1,790,000. Tuscon is a place I really like. The bank own it, and another I can sell, similar grandeur & size, same story, never lived in either.
Makes you realize how much of the worlds property drama we have missed out on.
February 21 2013 | Global Markets and New Zealand Real Estate Market and Notable Property For Sale | No Comments »
For a long time US statistics for buyers have emphasized ”property taxes” & the solvency of local authorities in comparisons of various sorts.
Till recently I thought this somewhat unnecessary for New Zealand whereI felt all authorities run the same more or less, and the rates not hugely different, and imagined buyers thought the same.
But look now; would you like to buy real estate in Kaipara with $19,000 of debt for every citizen? And Dunedin looks to have major issues…. including a $220 million stadium that I believe has not generated a cent of income in its first half year! Neither Elton John nor the World Cup Rugby paid to use it.
I think buyers will consider these things when moving now.
So authorities that have been profligate may drive a nail into that areas future prospects. A sobering thought.
March 09 2012 | New Zealand Real Estate Market and Zoning | 1 Comment »
I have only met one Christchurch party paid out on their destroyed house, who have bought in Wellington. They intend going back to Christchurch in 2 years. It seems almost no one has been paid out on insurance. Any agents anywhere seen evidence of Christchurch influence? If these homeowners have not bought elsewhere, & can not yet re build….what are they doing? Australia? Renting elsewhere? Any ideas?
November 24 2011 | And What About The Wellington Market? and Earthquakes. aka The Big One and New Zealand Real Estate Market and Uncategorized | No Comments »
The IMF think a capital gains tax on real estate would suit us here in NZ just fine!
So: do they know we have a capital gains tax already, on shares as well as property?
Do they propose it be on Commerscial property or just residential?
Why did those countries with capital gains taxes have just the same surge in values as NZ did?
Since it costs more to build new than buy existing, in most NZ markets, that must mean build costs have doubled in the period house prices have doubled! HMMMM could that be a culprit? & who’s fault was that? Not the “greedy real eastate owner!”
A tax would drive prices down. That would totally kill “new builds”, leading to aging housing stock, housing shortages, increased crowding, increased rents….all the building trade going to Australia…..hmmmm.
If the tax was on “realized gains”, the market would freeze up a lot. In Italy houses have lain idle for literally hundreds of years because the owners cant afford to pay taxes due on sale.
If it is on “unrealized gains”. Whew! where do retired couples get that money each year? Where does anyone get it?
So year one, “Unrealized Gains” scenario: Prices fall 20% (see my earlier blog) wiping $36b. Investors lose $24b, & claim $12b in tax losses! Hmmm.
In future after that, when the market rises, (which is always good times) Govt coffers will overflow at a time it dosnt need it, so will spend it like Labour just did for 9 years. When times are bad, investors will get refunds, putting pressure on already empty Govt coffers.
BUT THEN… there will be an equalizing private effect. Investors will have Mr or Ms Taxpersons hand in their pocket during booms, but handing some back in bad times. Countercyclical for investors.
Of course that is a bit like saying they take 3 pints of blood, but give one back.
Where are they at?
May 01 2011 | Media Beats Up Real Estate and New Zealand Real Estate Market | No Comments »
Biking around Martinborough. 20 acres going in between Craggy Range and Big Sky. Moral for Real Estate? there is always someone who doen’t care what the market & paper says. They do what they want when they want. That is your market.
grapes going in still
December 02 2010 | New Zealand Real Estate Market and wine/ Wineries | No Comments »
Real Life story. Apreciation the same. I appraised apartment at $470k, conservatively. They paid $265k, 6 years ago. Took owners yesterday to Northland ( we call it inner suburban, 10 min to CBD) house to see if they would buy it ( They want a family) . The owners of that house paid $250k 6 years ago, spent $20k on kitchen & decks. That has new valuation @ @465k. When apartment owners turned up, it turned out they had looked at it but chose the apartment, 6 years ago!
So relative to each other, the same value increase.
So those that say apartments around Wellington do not get the capital gain houses do are proven wrong in this real life example.
November 11 2010 | About Wellington Apartments and And What About The Wellington Market? and New Zealand Real Estate Market | No Comments »
Why are prices strong? A number of reasons:
A population that is growing & moving.
Dwellings are having, on average less ocupants. Do you know the average in 1900 was about 7 people per dwelling? Average!
Growth in migration.
Build costs, all up, are phenominal! Consents, land, decorating, landscaping, funding. In Wellington the build cost, true, seldom is under $3000 a square metre by the time you walk in the front door! Without land!
Now, add to that the nanny state. I tell people you need rocks in your head or be very very good to make money in NZ developing land & building residential homes en mass. The intrusive & arbitrary power of the state is a real uncertainty to costs & completion dates….ie to if you will make or lose money. Its a lottery.
Here is very good comment from Tony Alexander, BNZ economist. I recomend his weekly newsletter. Subscribe here
http://www.bnz.co.nz/Business_Solutions/1,1184,2-22-842,00.html
I Quote:
While we do not expect the pace of growth in sales earlier this year to reappear in the near future prospects
remain good – as we have long indicated – for average house prices to keep rising for the next 1-2 years.
There is the lowest level of addition to the existing housing stock in four decades and an upturn in
construction while underway will be constrained by a shortage first of funding for developers and then late
next year by a new shortage of contractors.
You may have noticed during the week that one of the other forecasting groups has adopted quite bullish
commentary on the housing market. So this now is where things start to get quite interesting. Regular
readers will know that over 18 months ago we were warning that although house prices would fall they would
decline maybe “only” 10% – 15% because of supporting factors such as rapidly falling construction, an
under-supply of housing, and the eventual impacts on debt-loving Kiwis of falling interest rates and
improving net migration flows. We suggested that if people wanted to make a “canny” purchase in the
housing market they should do so before the middle of this year.
Prices on average have now risen 9% since January and as we pointed out here last week the price gains
are occurring in the three main urban centres and not the regions this cycle. That aside, one of the other
things we pointed out last year is that probably in the second half of this year the debate about affordable
housing would reignite. That has not happened in public forums yet as far as we can see, but it won’t be far
away now that there appears to be general awareness of the property shortage moving out of just a dearth
of listings into a physical shortage of properties.
One might recall how when we were writing positively about the housing market in Winter the doom-sayers
were forecasting prices would decline anew because Spring would bring a flood of listings. That has not
happened, but one suspects the improving house price sentiment/discussion will bring forward a few more
sellers looking to alter their long term property exposure to something better aligned with their underlying
cash flows and risk tolerance.
But back on affordable housing. This is an extremely important issue with regard to social inclusion and
cohesiveness. One of the things we generally appear to value as New Zealanders is the ability to own our
own home and not to live in the tiny accommodation so prevalent overseas. When house prices were
skyrocketing 2-3 years ago and worries about this threat to our culture were high the Commerce Select
Committee held an investigation into the home affordability issue and produced a set of relatively lacklustre
recommendations which as far as we can tell have had no impact.”
Yes folks, unless something big changes, houses in the places there are jobs will continue to be in demand.
And unlike other form of investments…you can live in them too!
November 22 2009 | New Zealand Real Estate Market | No Comments »
Predictions of up 10% in next 10 months..
Average price in Wellington $400 000….10% is $40k, 10 months, $4k a month, up $1000 a week.
What prat keeps saying property is not a gopod place to put money?
Thanks here to “Scoop”
Nov. 13 (BusinessWire) – New Zealand house prices hit a 10-year high for the month of October amid a decline in the volume of sales as fewer properties are put on the market.
The national median house price rose to $355,000 last month, from $350,000 in September, according to the Real Estate Institute, with the median value increasing in seven of the 12 districts surveyed. The volume of sales declined 5.8% to 6,091 from a month earlier as the shortage of properties continued to keep Spring listings low and helped bump up prices.
Related Stories on Scoop
Auckland houses prices reach 22-month high 04/11/2009
NZ home building permits climb for third month 30/10/2009
NZ house prices extend gains in September: REINZ 14/10/2009
NZ apartment permits fall, total consents climb 29/09/2009
NZ house prices edge higher in August: REINZ 14/09/2009
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“The rises aren’t, in most cases, dramatic, but slow and steady over the past few months as confidence returns to the market,” said president Peter McDonald, in a statement. “I believe the market will firm even further with the better economic news we’re hearing more and more frequently.”
November 12 2009 | And What About The Wellington Market? and Landlords/Investment and New Zealand Real Estate Market | No Comments »
OK, I dont know why I never thought of this obvious relationship!
Here is the graph that got me excited.
thanks again to tony Alexander at BNZ…a good thing to subscribe to ( see below for link)
Note, Ive annotated graph, its not the easiest correlation to spot quickly.
September 26 2009 | And What About The Wellington Market? and Landlords/Investment and New Zealand Real Estate Market | No Comments »
Heres an excerpt fron the latest great BNZ report, produced by the charming Tony Alexander. Tony is a fun & generous speaker I have heard on occasion over the years. Worth subscribing at http://www.bnz.co.nz
It includes a really useful graph I have never seen before. It looks really useful, once you extrapolate it!
“ Housing Market Rising As Expected
The highlight of the week as far as housing activity goes was the monthly REINZ report released on Monday. It showed that in rough seasonally adjusted terms sales of dwellings fell by about 5% in August butat 5,878 were ahead a still strong 39% from a year ago. One can easily put the small easing in sales activitydown to the frequently reported shortages of listings – and because listings are in short supply it is no surprise that the average number of days taken to sell a dwelling fell even further in August.
50000
This measure now sits at 34 days from 37 in July and 55 a year earlier. This puts the speed of sales back
practically at the 33 of August 2007 and the August result is 3.7 days faster than average for the month. In July the days to sell measure was 2.8 days below average while June was above average by 0.9 days.
And so, with sales constrained by a vendor shortage, it is no surprise that prices continue to go up. The stratified measure put together by the Reserve Bank shows that on average prices in August were up 1.2% after rising 1.0% in July. Prices have now on average recovered 5.9% from their low point back in January
and sit 2.6% up from levels a year ago and only 6.2% down from the peak reached in November 2007.
Page 7
So where are prices going from here? Simply look at the graph below and the answer is as obvious now as it has been for all but the most biased for some time.”
Tony has here the most cool graph! You have GOT to go look!(Colin)
It shows whats going to happen to house prices!
If you are like me it will take thought to figure what that plunging “price movement” line means…but when you do! Golly Gosh!….. Buy now…in fact you should have bought in January! Go to http://www.bnz.co.nz/binaries/w170909.pdf , page 7, to see!
September 23 2009 | And What About The Wellington Market? and Landlords/Investment and New Zealand Real Estate Market | No Comments »
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