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Property Report – December 2013

Posted on: January 8th, 2014 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe December 2013 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of December. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – December 2013 is published below and is available for download (2.4mb) and distribution.

Summary of the market – December 2013

2014 starts with lowest number of new listings in 7 years, but an ease in asking prices

CoverPage_Report_Dec13

December traditionally is the quietest month of the year for listing of new properties for sale, however last month we saw a significantly lower number of new listings, and recorded the lowest number of new listings coming to the market in 7 years.

The number of new listings coming to the market in December fell to a new record low, with just 8010 listings coming onto the market, down 6% on the same time last year. This decrease in new listings was particularly apparent in Auckland, Wellington, Otago, Taranaki, and Hawkes Bay where the number of new listings also fell to record low levels.

Asking prices of new listings also eased significantly in December, to $451,448 (down 5.7% from November, but still up 7% year on year). This fall is the biggest we have recorded in the last 7 years. In the main centres, Auckland, and Wellington asking witnessed a fall in December to $656,702 (Auckland), and $445,351 (Wellington). However asking prices in Canterbury rose to a record high of $443,750.

Asking Price

SA_AskingPrice_Dec13

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings fell significantly in December, down 5.7% to $451,448 (from November), but still remained up 6.8% on December 2013.

As can be seen from the chart (right), the fall for the month does not significantly affect the trend line, which continues to show a steady rise over the past 3 years.

New Listings

TotalNewListings_Dec13

The level of new listings coming onto the market in December fell to a record low 8,010 listings from 13,311 in November. This represents a fall of 40%, and is also down 6% when compared to December last year.

For the calendar year of 2013 a total 131,474 new listings came onto the market, as compared to 132,243 in 2012 – a fall of 0.4%. By comparison the prior years stats were 2007: 177,529; 2008: 163,488; 2009: 135,416; 2010: 138,789; 2011 124,748.

So as compared to the peak of the market in 2007 listings are down 26%.

Inventory

InventorySA_MMA_Dec13

The level of unsold homes on the market at the end of December (38,804) remained well down as compared to December last year (42,513), a drop of 9%.

The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales was slightly higher than last month, with 26.3 weeks of stock now available.

The market remains firmly a seller’s market; with 16 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels that are well below long term averages.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Regional map of asking price NZ Property Report Dec_2013

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers fell by 5.6% in December to an asking price of $451,448.

Record high asking prices were seen in 2 regions in New Zealand; Canterbury, where the average asking price reached a new high of $443,750 (up 14% on December 2012); and Taranaki, where asking prices reached $344,910 (up 22% on December 2012).

In the other main centers, both Auckland and Wellington reported a fall in average asking prices, Auckland fell just 0.4% to $656,702, and Wellington fell 2.7% to $445,351.

In total 10 regions saw asking price increases, with 2 regions reporting asking price increases greater than 5%. Northland reported the largest increase, up 6.5% from November to $422,779, followed by Taranaki, which rose by 5.1% to $344,910.

Of the 8 regions witnessing asking price falls there were 6 that reported a falls greater than 5%, the most significant falls were recorded in Coromandel, Waikato, Marlborough, and Gisborne. Coromandel fell by 13% to $383,684, Waikato fell 10% to $349.928, Gisborne fell 10% to 273,750, and Marlborough fell 10% to 378,485.

Regional Summary – Listings

Regional map of new listings NZ Property Report Dec_2013

New listings fell across most of the country in December to record low levels, with 13 of the 19 regions seeing a decrease in listings on a year-on-year basis.

Of the 13 regions that reported lower new listings than December last year the most significant drop in listings was seen in Taranaki, falling 30.6%, and Northland, which fell by 26.2%

Record low numbers of new listings were seen in Taranaki, Hawkes Bay, Otago, Auckland, and Wellington.

There were 6 regions reporting year on year increases with Gisborne reporting the biggest increase of listings (up 41.9%).

In the main centers, Auckland, and Wellington saw a fall in new listings to record low levels. Auckland reported 1,897 new listings, down 8% from December 2012, and Wellington reported 467 new listings, down 14% from last year. Canterbury, saw a 3% rise in listings, with 987 new listings coming on the market.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Regional map of inventory NZ Property Report Dec_2013

The inventory of unsold homes on the market recovered slightly in December to 26 weeks of equivalent sales.

Market sentiment continues remains firmly in favour of sellers in 16 regions, with the greatest strain continuing to be felt in the 8 regions that are marked in darker blue. This includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

Three regions (West Coast, Taranaki, and Southland) showed an increase in inventory of homes on the market, taking them above their respective long-term average.

For Media Enquiries, please contact:

Paul McKenzie, National Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures. The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 97% of all offices. With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

Seasonally adjustment The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

Background to Realestate.co.nz Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%). The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 580,000 unique browsers, with over 130,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ. In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 30% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 185,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 3,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 10,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 25,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 3,500 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Realestate.co.nz is the official online property listing website of the New Zealand real estate industry, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. The full NZ Property Report for December 2013 can be downloaded here (2.1mb pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for January 2013 will be published on this website on 1st February 2013 at 11am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

If you have any comments or enquiries about the NZ Property Market or about marketing your property online, please contact me via EmailGoogle, or Twitter

 

Article Discussion

  1. Given the lack of stock reported above it is not surprising that our recent listings have been swamped with enquiry.

    Our Pt Chevalier and Grey Lynn offices have signed up contracts on $10,774,000 worth of homes from the 18th of December to the 17th of January, with many setting street, area and category records and our first weekend of open homes on 11th/12th January saw over 100 people through our properties.

    All of the above activity was generated without the use of print media or auctions and in fact it looks like $By Negotiation is the best way to go given that it appears that only around 35% of auctions sold under the hammer in the last couple of months of 2013.

    Many real estate offices and salespeople prefer to virtually shut down over the holiday period, but we always find it is extremely busy, with buyers on transfer, Kiwis returning/new migrants arriving from overseas and many desperate to get “in zone” for local schools before the first term commences.

    This would be the busiest holiday period and most buoyant start to any year that we have witnessed since 2007 and it looks like there will be a strong lift in prices over the first quarter of 2014 in the central Auckland area.

    If we could secure another 20 or 30 bungalows, villas or ex states in the Ponsonby to Pt Chevalier area right now we could most likely sell them all in the next three weeks!

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