The quarterly analysis of the property market covering the first 3 months of 2012 clearly show that sales have really taken off, but as yet listings are slow to respond.
The chart below paints a very clear picture of this situation. The quarterly sales growth represented by the red bars shows that year-on-year sales growth has been in positive territory and growing at an accelerated rate for 4 consecutive quarters.
It all began a year ago, when in the second quarter of 2011 the sales year-on-year grew by 7%. The next quarter this grew to 18% and then in the final quarter of 2011 the sales of property really accelerated to 22% year-0n-year growth.
The start of 2012 has seen this growth accelerate again with a 29% growth. This growth represents 3,969 more properties sold in the first 3 months of 2012 than compared to the same time last year – an extra 44 properties a day being sold.
This rise in sales is not being matched as yet by a rise in new listings, as represented by the blue bars in the chart. In the first 3 months of 2012 there has been an increase, but only a 10% increase, but that is not approaching the consistent rise in property sales that has been seen over the past year.
This clearly demonstrates the lag that occurs between sales activity as a measure of demand in the property market and the resultant supply side reaction – usually a 6 months lag.
Around the country, across the 19 regions tracked by REINZ and Realestate.co.nz the picture in the majority of regions is consistent – listings lagging the rise in sales.
The region which standouts for a contrarian trend though is the Coromandel – weaker sales and declining listings.