The July 2013 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of July. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.
A full print version of the NZ Property Report – July 2013 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.
Summary of the market – July 2013
National asking price reaches a new record high
The winter months have not reduced demand for homes in New Zealand, and because of this seller confidence has pushed up the (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price to a new high of $465,191. The rise in asking price was noticeable across more than half of New Zealand, with 13 regions reporting a rise in asking price.
Record high asking prices were also seen in Auckland, Canterbury, and West Coast regions; The new high of $639,685 in Auckland represents a 1.3% increase on it’s previous high, also in May. While in Canterbury and West Coast’s new highs were set at $422,043 and $318,816 respectively.
Across the country the level of inventory of property on the market eased in July to 26.7 weeks, but remains low when measured against the historical average. The next 3 months heading out of winter and into spring will see a seasonal lift in activity of both listings and sales. The key issue will be to what extent the rise in new listings can ease the pressure that the major centers are seeing.
The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings rose 8.4% (from July 2012) and reached a new record high of $465,191. This new record asking price was up from the prior peak of $454,795 reached in May 2013.
The trend as seen in the chart opposite, continues to show strength in seller price expectation, on the back of low listings, and strong demand in the main centres
New listings in July recovered from the lows reported in June, with 9,857 new listings coming to the market. Up 9% when compared to June, and up 5% on last year.
On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 131,343 new listings have come onto the market since August 2012 as compared to 130,878 in the prior 12 month period, a rise of just 0.4%.
The number of new listings helped to ease inventory pressure (as measured in weeks of equivalent sales), which sits at 26.7 weeks, up 7% on last month’s record low. However, this still represents a 14% dip year on year and is well below the long term average of 38 weeks.
The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of July (36,231) was down 4%, when compared to June (37,615).
The market remains firmly a seller’s market; with 14 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels that are well below long term averages.
Regional Summary – Asking price expectations
The national asking price expectation among sellers rose by 3.3% in July, to a new national record high asking price of $465,191. (seasonally adjusted truncated mean). This was more than $10,000 higher than the previous record of $454,795 set in May this year.
In the main centres, both Auckland and Canterbury posted record highs of $639,685, and $422,043 respectively in July. In total 13 regions reported asking price increases, with 5 regions reporting a rise of greater than 5% from June. The most significant rise was seen in the Marlborough, up 8.2% to $267,350. Of the 6 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was just 1 that reported a fall greater than 5%, Coromandel showed the largest fall, down 6.4% to $406,446.
Regional Summary – Listings
There were 14 of the 19 regions that reported a increase of new listings on the prior year, with 1 region reporting a rise of over 20%.
The most significant rise in listings was seen in Central North Island, which rose by 77.4%, a level not seen in Central North Island since November 2011.
Of the 5 regions that reported lower new listings than July last year Gisborne was the region to report the highest fall -28% when compared to July 2012, followed by Manawatu / Wanganui which saw an fall of 18.7%.
In the main centers (Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch) the pressure eased slightly, with all three regions reporting close of 5% increases on July 2012
Regional Summary – Inventory
Central Otago / Lakes hit record low inventory levels in July; falling to 55 weeks, 41% below its long term average
Market sentiment remains in favour of sellers in 15 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 8 regions that are marked in darker blue. This continues to include the main metro areas of Auckland, and Canterbury, although there was some easing, they continue to remain under pressure from low listings.
Four regions (Southland, West Coast, Wairarapa, and Manawatu / Wanganui) showed an increase in inventory of homes on the market, taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition 1 other region (Taranaki) sits close to its long term average.
New lifestyle property listings fell across the country in July. A total of just 620 listings came onto the market, showing a fall of 9% when compared to June, and a fall of 12% when compared to July last year. Canterbury saw record low numbers of new lifestyle listings for a 2nd month, with just 58 coming to the market. The national truncated mean asking price of $698,868 set a new record high asking price, up by 3.6% as compared to the recent 3-month average (and up 9% when compared to July 2012). Record high asking prices were also reported in Auckland, Nelson, Otago, and Central Otago / Lakes regions.
New listings for apartments in July were up 16.7% on a year on year basis, and up 18% from June, with 531 being brought to the market. The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings rose 3.2% to $386,393 in July from $374,374 in June, and was up 8.3% on a year on year basis.
The Auckland apartment market had 373 new listings, up 16% when compared to July last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose to $388,891, up from $354,882 in June. When compared to the recent 3-month average, this represents an increase of 6.8%.
For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537
Truncated mean The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures. The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.
Methodology With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 97% of all offices. With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.
Seasonally adjustment The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.
Background to Realestate.co.nz Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%). The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:
Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 500,000 unique browsers, with over 120,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ. In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 30% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 165,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.
nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 3,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 10,000 lifestyle properties.
Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 25,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.
Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 3,500 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.
The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. The full NZ Property Report for July 2013 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for August 2013 will be published on this website on 1st September 2013 at 10am.
By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz