The September 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of September. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.
A full print version of the NZ Property Report – September 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.5MB) and distribution.
Summary of the market – September 2012
The property market has now fully entered its traditional spring period, an active time in the market with new listings appearing as the weather improves. After finishing winter strongly, the market is indicating that we will continue to see good levels of activity in the market in the lead up to the end of the year.
The start of spring has seen steady levels of new listings coming onto the market, falling in-line with the levels of listings seen in September last year (with a 7.6% increase on August, bringing the market over 11,500 new listings).
Inventory levels across the country remain low, and the market remains a firm sellers market across 15 of NZ’s 19 regions, and overall stocks of unsold houses fell slightly to 30.5 weeks of inventory (long term average = 40 weeks). Auckland is the most affected by low inventory levels, with stocks of unsold houses falling to a new low of 17.4 weeks of inventory, well below the long-term average of 32 weeks.
The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity. The confidence amongst sellers bringing their properties onto the market stabilised in September, with the truncated mean asking price steadying at $429,312.
Asking Price
The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in September fell slightly. The September figure of $429,312 was down just 0.3% year-on-year on a seasonally adjusted basis as compared to September last year.
The trend as seen in the chart opposite continues to show strength in seller expectation on the back of low listings and strong demand in the main centers.
New Listings
The level of new listings coming onto the market in September increased from August with 11,514 listings in the month – up from the 10,365 in August (7.6% increase). Seasonal trends of new spring listings remains true, showing a small 0.3% increase in listings when compared to September last year.
On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 130,915 new listings have come onto the market since October 2011 as compared to 125,102 in the prior 12 month period, this represents a rise of just 4.7%.
Inventory
The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of September (44,063) remained stable, when compared to August (44,291) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales fell slightly last month to 30.5 weeks last month. Auckland showed another new record low number of unsold houses in September with levels falling to 9,567 or just 17.5 equivalent weeks of sales (Auckland long term average = 32 weeks)
Regional Summary – Asking price expectations
The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers fell slightly in September by 0.3% to $429,312.
In the main centres, both Wellington and Canterbury saw increases in September, with Wellington increasing 3% to $447,388. The asking price in Auckland witnessed a slight fall in September (down 1.8% to $574,798).
In total 10 regions reported asking price increases, and 4 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in the Coromandel, Central North Island, Taranaki, West Coast and Nelson regions, with Nelson showing the largest increases, up 10% to $455,705. Of the 9 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was just 1 reporting a fall greater than 5% with Manawatu / Wanganui seeing a fall of 7.4%.
Regional Summary – Listings
Overall listings volume was steady on a national basis, however across the regions there were slightly more regions showing increases than falls.
There were 11 regions reporting year-on-year rises with Southland reporting an increase of 26.6%, and Marlborough seeing the largest increase of listings (up 38.5%).
8 regions reported lower new listings than September last year with Central Otago / Lakes being the region to report the highest fall off of 35.2% when compared to September 2011.
Canterbury continues to see new listings fall again compared last year and remains under pressure to meet buyer demand.
Regional Summary – Inventory
Market sentiment continues to favour sellers nationally with inventory of unsold houses on the market remaining well below long term average based on equivalent rate of sale.
Two regions (Taranaki and West Coast) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition three other regions (Central North Island, Southland, and Otago) sit close to their respective long term averages indicating a more balanced market.
These 5 regions aside, the remaining 14 regions all remain seller’s markets with the greatest strain being felt in the 4 regions which are marked in dark blue which includes the main metro areas of Auckland, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.
Lifestyle
Lifestyle property listings had a boost across the country in September, rising by 29% when compared to August. A total of 951 listings came onto the market, showing an increase of 8.3% when compared to September last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was up by 1.8% as compared to the recent 3-month average to $649,343. When measured against September last year the asking price is up 8.3%
Apartments
Listings for apartments in September were down 9.8% when compared to August, with 477 being brought to the market (on a year-on-year basis listings were down 3%). The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings rose to $399,489 in September from $349,192 in August, representing an increase of 10.2% on the recent 3-month average.
The Auckland apartment market followed the national trend with 264 new listings coming onto the market, down 11.7% when compared to September last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose to $366,057 (September) from $334,130 (August) representing a 5.5% increase on the prior 3 months.
For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537
Notes:
Truncated mean
The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.
The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.
Methodology
With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.
With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.
Seasonally adjustment
The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.
Background to Realestate.co.nz
Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).
The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:
Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 450,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.
nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.
Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.
Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.
The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.
The full NZ Property Report for September 2012 can be downloaded here (1.5MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.
Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for October 2012 will be published on this website on Thursday 1st November 2012 at 1pm.
By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz
September listing levels in Pt Chevalier, Westmere and Grey Lynn were very low and as a result sales volume will be well down when the data is released by REINZ.
October has also started out with low inventory and prices can only continue to increase in the central Auckland suburbs due to strong buyer demand and fixed mortgage interest rates now being offered under 5%.
[...] did indeed increase with the change in seasons. The NZ Property Report from realestate.co.nz shows a whopping 7.6% increase on August (boom!), though this is up on last [...]
The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity. Not sure if anything should be done until it hurts too much, but with super low mortgage rates still available it’s a great time for first timers to get on the ladder. The confidence amongst sellers bringing their properties onto the market stabilized in September 2012.
Real Estate Trends goes with the season. The asking price also declines as the demand goes down. This report is very detailed and reflects the actual trend in the market.