NZ Property Report – September 2009

The anticipated seasonal lift in new listings coming onto the market as measured by the website occurred in September at a level ahead of expectations. The year on year growth of 6% represents the first month since April 2008 when inventory coming onto the market has been ahead of the prior year – such has been the subdued state of the market. Accompanying this increase of new listings has been a rise in the asking price expectations – up 6% on the month of August and up 5% on the prior 3 month average. This spike now takes the asking price expectation back to within 2% of the peak of the market in late 2007. A large component in this rise in listings can be attributable to 3 main north island centers – Auckland, Northland and Bay of Plenty – these accounted for 55% of the overall increase of 2,030 in new listings in the month. Coincidentally they were also areas showing strong rises in asking price expectation. This data supports the view that the property marketing is most active in the major metropolitan areas whereas the provincial parts of the country are yet to witness this pick up.

Asking Price

The vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in September took a significant leap. The truncated mean price for the 12,674 listings added in the month was $419,851. This represents a 5.2% increase in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Jun/Jul/Aug). The asking price of new listings in September last year was $398,659.

New Listings

The number of new listings coming onto the market rose significantly to 12,674, from the August total of 10,644. Despite the uplift in listings during September the level of new listings over the past 12 months shows a 21% fall with 134,873 new listings in the recent 12 months as compared to 172,711 in the prior 12 months spanning 2007/8.

Inventory

With new listings coming onto the market slightly exceeding sales the inventory level role nationally for the fourth straight month; sitting now at 33.7 weeks stock of unsold properties. The level of inventory though is down 40% from the peak of the market back in February of this year when the level reached 57 weeks.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Increases in the asking price expectation of vendors were prevalent across almost all centers of the country, with the exception of Gisborne and Nelson. The biggest single rise was seen in Northland which also showed the largest rise in new listings. The most significant trend seen in the measure of asking price movements as compared to a 3 month average is that most of the activity is seen in these main centers. Auckland witnessed 5.9%, Canterbury 5.5%, Wellington 4.4%, Bay of Plenty 4.3%, Otago (Dunedin) 7.4%, Northland (Whangarei) 20.6% and Central North Island (Taupo) 6.3%

Regional Summary of listings

Only one of the 19 regions of the country showed a significant decline in listings when comparing year on year. Gisborne added just 80 new listings representing a 14% decline from September last year. Most significant increase in new listings was seen in Northland where listings almost doubled in a month from 422 in August to 823 in September. It should be remembered that new listing levels of this order were more the norm in 2007 and heading into 2008.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Whilst the level of new listings increased inventory across most regions, a number still show below long term average levels of inventory. Wellington continues to see a tight market with 16 weeks of inventory down 41% on the levels of a year ago. At the other extreme, areas such as the West Coast and Gisborne both showed increasing inventory as compared to long term averages tipping them more into a buyer’s market territory. For the vast majority of the 19 regions the perspective is of a balanced market where the recent rise in new listings should match well to any upturn in demand as a function of seasonal lift and the emerging wave of economic optimism

Lifestyle

Lifestyle property saw a significant lift in the month of September with 1,157 new listings being added to the website, an increase of 271 from August. The total is the highest since October of last year and represents an 18% increase on the same month last year. A significant portion (nearly a third) of this increase was seen in new listings in the Northland region. An equally large increase was seen in the year on year increases in the Bay of Plenty up 63% and the Central North Island up 53%. Auckland whilst not showing a high year on year increase did see an incremental 67 listings as compared to August. The asking price expectation of these listings was up 8% on August at $599,073 and 6% up on the 3 month moving average.

Apartments

The apartment market showed comparable levels of new listings to August with 603 added in the month. This represented a gain of just 1% over August, but a 12% increase over the same month last year. Auckland as ever represents the largest concentration of apartment listings – 349 new listing in September, down slightly from August but up 14% on the same month last year. The asking price of apartments nationally in September increased by 8% from the prior 3 month period average to a level of $418,376. In Auckland the asking price was $368,319 which represents a 5% increase on the prior 3 month average and a 10% increase on the August figure. The full report can be downloaded here (1.1MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for October 2009 will be published on this blog on Sunday 1st November at 10am.