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NZ Property Report – October 2012

The October 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of October. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – October 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.5MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – October 2012

The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity as compared to the past few years. The confidence amongst sellers bringing their properties onto the market has pushed up the (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price to a new high of $445,529 – the highest level since the collection of data began in 2007. This rise in asking price was noticeable right across the country, with Auckland reaching a new record high of $611,864, and Canterbury reaching a new high of $414,070.

November saw a good rise in new listings (up 12% on October 2011), and this rise has lead to some balancing of the property market in both Wellington and a number of provincial regions.

While inventory levels across the country balanced in October, the market remains a firm sellers market across 12 of NZ’s 19 regions. Overall stocks of unsold houses rose slightly to 33 weeks of inventory (long term average = 40 weeks). Both Auckland and Canterbury remain firmly sellers markets, with overall inventory levels continuing to remain well below long-term averages.

The next data for November will be interesting to review as to the final flush of new listings coming onto the market in Spring – November is traditionally one of the biggest listings months of the year. Last year that total was just over 13,000 – that at a time when inventory was considerably higher than today.

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings rose 4% (from September) to an all time high of $445,529 in October. This new record asking price level was up from the prior peak of $435,887 reached in May this year.

The trend as seen in the chart opposite continues to show strength in seller expectation and strong demand in the main centers.

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in October continued to increase, with 12,688 listings in the month – up from 11,514 in September (14% increase). October also saw big increases on last year, with an increase of 12% in listings.

On a 12 month moving total basis the number of new listings that have come onto the market in the last year totals 132,291, as compared to 124,503 in the prior 12 month period, this represents a rise of 6.3%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of October (43,921) remained stable, when compared to September (44,063) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales rose last month to 33.1 weeks last month. This rise was witnessed across 17 of the 19 regions. But overall inventory levels still fell well below the long-term average of 39 weeks.

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose 3.8% in October to a new peak of $445,529. This exceeds the prior peak of $435,887 reached in May this year.

Following the new record high for the national asking price figure, both Auckland and Canterbury also posted record highs in October. This is the first time that the seasonally adjusted mean asking price has topped the $600,000 mark in Auckland ($611,864), and the $400,000 mark in Canterbury ($414,070).

In total 15 regions reported asking price increases, and 7 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in the Central Otago/Lakes, Canterbury, Gisborne, Manawatu/Wanganui, Southland, and Auckland regions, with Central Otago/Lakes showing the largest increases, up 18% to $621,200 (the highest seen since November 2007). Of the 4 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was just 1 reporting a fall greater than 5% with West Coast seeing a fall of 6.5%.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Overall new listings increased on a national basis, as seen in the adjacent chart however across the regions there were slightly more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 16 regions reporting year-on-year rises, with significant increases (over 20%) seen in 10 regions. The largest increases were in Taranaki (68%), Wairarapa (40%), Hawkes Bay (34%) and Gisborne (31%)

Only 3 regions reported lower new listings than October last year with Northland being the region to report the highest fall off of 17.4% when compared to October 2011.

 

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

The inventory of unsold homes on the market eased in October, rising 9% from September to 33 weeks of stock, and shows the market re-balancing.

This re-balancing is however not occurring in the two major markets of Canterbury and Auckland where the inventory continues to remain low.

Five regions (Taranaki and West Coast) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition four other regions (Central North Island, Southland, and Otago) sit close to their respective long term averages indicating a more balanced market.

Market sentiment continues to favour sellers in the remaining 10 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 3 regions which are marked in dark blue, which includes the main metro areas of Auckland, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

 

Lifestyle

New lifestyle property listings had another boost across the country in October, rising a further 18% when compared to September. A total of 1,121 listings came onto the market, showing an increase of 12% when compared to October last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was up by 7% as compared to the recent 3-month average to a record high asking price of $689,375 (up 13% when compared to October 2011). This record high was reflected across 4 regions in New Zealand (Northland, West Coast, Canterbury, and Central North Island).

 

Apartments

New listings for apartments in October were up 1.5% when compared to September, with 484 being brought to the market (on a year-on-year basis listings were up 9%). The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings fell slightly to $398,121 in October from $399,489 in September, but was still up 8% on the recent 3-month average.

The Auckland apartment market followed the national trend with 300 new listings coming onto the market, up 7.1% when compared to October last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose again to $382,303 (October) from $366,057 (September) representing a 9.8% increase on the prior 3 months.

 

For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 450,000 unique browsers, with over 115,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 25% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 117,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for October 2012 can be downloaded here (1.5MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for November 2012 will be published on this website on Monday 3rd December 2012 at 9am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

Article Discussion

  1. I am new to the term of Estate Property Report and don’t know much about it…But when I came across this blog I came to know that the price of land in NZ is touching the sky!!

  2. […] October NZ Property Report represents the midpoint of the ‘spring surge’. This is not some Afghani military plan but […]

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