The November 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of November. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.
A full print version of the NZ Property Report – November 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.
Summary of the market – November 2012
Inventory hits 5 year low and adds growing pressure to the property market
The message coming from the property market is that buyers are out and about and are keen to get into the market. This eagerness to buy is matched by the availability of attractive mortgage packages, but is not being met with sufficient supply of new property listings, which is continuing to drive the current sellers market.
Inventory levels across the country remain low and the market remains a firms sellers market across 15 of NZ’s 19 regions. Overall stocks of unsold homes fell to a 5 year low of 28.7 weeks of inventory (long term average = 39 weeks). Auckland was again the most affected by low inventory levels, with stocks of unsold homes falling to a new low of 15.5 weeks of inventory, well below the long term average of 31 weeks.
The REINZ Residential Market Statistics reports strong property sales with 6,640 properties sold in October, up 33% on a year ago, and yet listing flow is not matching with just a 1.5% year on year growth. This is why the inventory supply of the property on the market (as measured by rate of sale) has fallen 29% in the past year.
This confidence on the part of sellers is certainly supported by the rate of sale of property which is being shared by real estate agents in their daily contact with the public, and can also be seen in traffic to Realestate.co.nz which has seen an increase this year of 40%, with over 1,400,000 monthly visitor sessions across all sites (Google Analytics).
The trend (as seen in the chart opposite) very clearly shows an accelerating growth in asking price over the recent 12 months (as compared to 2010/11) and shows continued strength in seller expectations.
The level of new listings coming onto the market in November continued to increase, with 13,571 listings in the month – up from 12,688 in October (7% increase). However listings were only slightly up by 1.5% on November last year.
On a 12 month moving total basis the number of new listings that have come onto the market in the last year totals 132,493, as compared to 124,940 in the prior 12-month period, this represents a rise of 6%.
The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of November (45,228) was up, when compared to October (43,410). The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales fell to a 5 year low last month to 28.7 weeks last month. This fall was witnessed across 15 of the 19 regions.
With the rising rate of property sales, the inventory on the market has seen a significant drop over the last 12 months pushing it well below the long-term average of 39 weeks of equivalent sales.
Regional Summary – Asking price expectations
In the main centers, Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch all reported a fall in the asking price in November. Auckland fell 2.5% to $596,759, Wellington fell 4.2% to $431,259 and Canterbury fell 2% to $405,913.
In total 10 regions reported asking price increases, and 5 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in the Central North Island, Northland, Manawatu/Wanganui and Southland with Central North Island showing the largest increases, up 6.9% to $369,390. Of the 9 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was 3 that reported a falls of greater than 5% with Gisborne falling by 14.4% to $250,866, Hawkes Bay falling by 10.3% to $321,454 and Wairarapa falling 7.3% to $254,194
Regional Summary – Listings
There were 11 regions reporting year-on-year rises, with significant increases (over 20%) seen in just 2 regions, the largest increases were in Gisborne (25%), and Otago (20%).
7 regions reported lower new listings than November last year with the Central North Island being the region to report the highest fall off of 35.8% when compared to November 2011, Followed by Northland who saw a fall of 21%
Regional Summary – Inventory
Four regions (Southland, West Coast, Coromandel, and Wairarapa) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition one other region (Manawatu / Wanganui) sits close to it’s respective long term average.
Market sentiment now favours sellers in 14 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 8 regions which are marked in dark blue, which includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.
New lifestyle property listings fell across the country in November, dropping 4.9% when compared to October. A total of 1,066 listings came onto the market, showing a fall of 5.9% when compared to November last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was down by 1.5% as compared to the recent 3-month average to an asking price of $654,519 (up 13.9% when compared to October 2011). New record high asking prices were seen in 2 regions in New Zealand (Waikato – $675,581, and Central Otago/Lakes – $1,596,071).
New listings for apartments in November down 9.5% on a year on year basis, with 484 being brought to the market. The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings fell 1% to $394,282 in November from $398,121 in October, but was still up 6.4% on a year on year basis.
The Auckland apartment market had 304 new listings coming onto the market, down 13.1% when compared to November last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose again to $386,818 (November) from $382,303 (October) representing a 2.2% increase on the prior 3 months.
For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537
The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.
The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.
With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.
With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.
The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.
Background to Realestate.co.nz
Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).
The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:
Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 475,000 unique browsers, with over 115,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.
In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 25% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 122,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.
nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.
Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.
Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.
The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.
The full NZ Property Report for November 2012 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.
Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for December 2012 will be published on this website on Wednesday 2nd January 2013 at 11am.
By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz