The August 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of July. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.
A full print version of the NZ Property Report – August 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.7MB) and distribution.
Summary of the market – August 2012
The property market finished winter strongly and is showing all the signs of gearing up for a strong Spring season. The market is still firmly parked as a sellers market, with inventory levels across the country remaining low. Good levels of new listings have started to come onto the market, with a 10% increase on July, bring to the market over 10,300 new listings.
The next 3 months usually represents the peak season for house sales, and the current indication is that we will continue to see good levels of activity in the market in the lead up to the end of the year.
The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity. The confidence amongst sellers bringing their properties onto the market stabilized in August, with the truncated mean asking price rising slightly to $430,443 when compared to the last 3 months. This slight rise in asking price was noticeable in 12 of the 19 regions, with Auckland pushing a new high of $585,482.
The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in August rose slightly. The August figure of $430,443 was up just 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July. It represents a 1.7% year-on-year growth in the asking price as compared to August last year.
The trend as seen in the chart opposite continues to show strength in seller expectation on the back of low listings and strong demand in the main centers.
The level of new listings coming onto the market in August increase from June with 10,365 listings in the month – up from the 9,411 in June. This represents a 6.7% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis.
On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 130,878 new listings have come onto the market since September 2011 as compared to 124,544 in the prior 12 month period, this represents a rise of just 5.1%.
The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of August (44,291) was down slightly as compared to July (44,729) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales barely changed last month to 30.9 weeks last month. Auckland showed a new record low number of unsold houses in August with levels falling to 9858, or just 18 equivalent weeks of sales (Auckland long term average = 32 weeks)
Regional Summary – Asking price expectations
The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose slightly in August by 0.3% to $430,443.
Across the 19 regions of the country asking prices showed a significant range of variances. The star of the months was Auckland, reporting a 1.8% increase and hit a new record seasonally adjusted average asking price of $585,482. The asking price in the other main centres of Wellington & Canterbury witnessed a fall last in August, with Canterbury showing the lowest asking price since January this year (down 4.8% to $374,732).
In total 12 regions reported asking price increases with Northland the largest riser up 8.4% to $388,790. Of the 7 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there were 3 reporting falls greater than 5% with the biggest falls seen in Taranaki (down 6.7% to $280,560) and the Central North Island (down 6.1% to $325,982).
Regional Summary – Listings
Overall listings volume was steady on a national basis, however across the regions there were more regions showing increases than falls.
There were 16 regions reporting year-on-year rises with Central North Island, Gisborne, Taranaki, Wairarapa, and Otago reporting increases of over 20%, with Wairarapa seeing the largest increase of listings (up 40.1%).
Just 3 regions reported new listings lower than August last year with Bay of Plenty being the region to report the highest fall off of 15.4% when compared to August 2011.
Canterbury saw new listings fall again compared to August last year and remains under pressure to meet buyer demand.
Regional Summary – Inventory
Two regions (Taranaki and Southland) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition three other regions (Central North Island, Nelson, and Otago) sit close to their respective long term averages indicating a more balanced market.
These 5 regions aside, the remaining 14 regions all remain seller’s markets with the greatest strain being felt in the 3 regions which are marked in dark blue which includes the main centres of Auckland and Canterbury which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.
Lifestyle property listings remained low in August. A total of 737 listings came onto the market, down slightly by 3% year-on-year but up 4.7% as compared to July. The truncated mean asking price for these listings fell by just 0.8% as compared to the recent 3 month average to $638,698 and also fell 0.4% below the June level of $641,444.
Manawatu / Wanganui was the only region to record a record high for lifestyle listings of $533,671 (up 34.6% on August 2011). On average 67 new lifestyle listings a month are listed in the Manawatu / Wanganui region.
Listings for apartments in August were up 16.3% when compared to July, with 529 being brought to the market, on a year-on-year basis listings were down 15.9%. The truncated mean asking price of new listings slipped again to $349,192 in August from $356,762 in July, representing a decrease of 5.6% on the recent 3 month average.
The Auckland apartment market followed the national trend with 385 new listings coming onto the market, up 19.2% on July 2012 and down 16.7% when compared to August last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland fell to $334,150 from $344,479 in July representing a 9.2% fall on the prior 3 months.
The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.
The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.
With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.
With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.
The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.
Background to Realestate.co.nz
Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).
The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:
Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 450,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.
nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.
Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.
Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.
The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.
The full NZ Property Report for August 2012 can be downloaded here (1.7MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.
Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for September 2012 will be published on this website on Monday 1st October 2012 at 10am.
By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz