I am a firm believer that a picture or chart is far better at explaining trends and activity than any spreadsheet of data. It was this thinking that lead me to put together this unusual pictorial representation of the NZ property market shown below:
The chart tracks annualised residential property sales along the horizontal axis matched to median house prices on the vertical axis. The data points represents the track of monthly intersection of these two metrics to produce this interesting snake!
The chart very clearly shows the distinct difference between the NZ residential market during the 1990’s as compared to this decade – the volatility of sales volumes and median prices is so significant to see. Equally the scale of volume decline between 2007 and 2009 represents more than twice the movement than anytime prior to 2002.
Of equal note is the current head of the “snake” as it heads upwards indicating recent price strengthening as volume sales gradually pull back from the lows at the start of this year, however they currently represent a sales level still on a 12 month moving average basis below the start of the data in 1993 and the lowest point of the fall in the first few years of this decade.
By way of a comparison the same chart of median price to volume sales for the US is seen here below. I am grateful to the research division of the National Association of Realtors in the US who presented this data and in so doing prompted me to create just such a chart for the NZ market.
What a great way of looking at the market. Thanks Alistair.
Hi Alistair, please send me your email address,I have an interesting chart for you.