Comments on: Mortgagee data provides valuable insight into economic situation http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/ What's really going on in realestate Thu, 18 Mar 2010 05:02:04 +1300 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Steve Netwiter http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-2731 Steve Netwiter Tue, 24 Nov 2009 01:38:48 +0000 http://www.unconditional.co.nz/blog/?p=4597#comment-2731 Hi Alistair, Thanks for the clarification. Even 4% is more than I'd thought. Not based on any analysis, just that I hadn't realised it was so high. Steve Hi Alistair,
Thanks for the clarification.
Even 4% is more than I’d thought. Not based on any analysis, just that I hadn’t realised it was so high.
Steve

]]> By: Alistair Helm http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-2726 Alistair Helm Mon, 23 Nov 2009 19:03:05 +0000 http://www.unconditional.co.nz/blog/?p=4597#comment-2726 J.C. It will certainly be interesting to keep a track on this data in the coming months and years to see as you say the true fall out. In the past it tends to be the case that once the recovery has set in the focus (of main media, which in the past was the only medium) switched to other metrics. J.C.

It will certainly be interesting to keep a track on this data in the coming months and years to see as you say the true fall out. In the past it tends to be the case that once the recovery has set in the focus (of main media, which in the past was the only medium) switched to other metrics.

]]> By: J.C. http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-2732 J.C. Mon, 23 Nov 2009 00:19:16 +0000 http://www.unconditional.co.nz/blog/?p=4597#comment-2732 " A high clearance rate of mortgagee properties is a good sign." I would agree with this statement and this would be the case in an efficient market. Whenever I look at trackers, I try to focus on events then make a hypothesis based on what I see from the trend. For me the onset of the GFC is particularly meaningful and the increasing no. of "distressed sales" is consistent with the sickness of the wider economic environment. Given the scale of recent events, it will be interesting to see the graph in 5-10 years time. ” A high clearance rate of mortgagee properties is a good sign.” I would agree with this statement and this would be the case in an efficient market. Whenever I look at trackers, I try to focus on events then make a hypothesis based on what I see from the trend. For me the onset of the GFC is particularly meaningful and the increasing no. of “distressed sales” is consistent with the sickness of the wider economic environment. Given the scale of recent events, it will be interesting to see the graph in 5-10 years time.

]]> By: Alistair Helm http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-2730 Alistair Helm Sun, 22 Nov 2009 19:30:11 +0000 http://www.unconditional.co.nz/blog/?p=4597#comment-2730 Keith Unfortunately I do not have access to this data - we get the top line data from Terralink. Within the data is the detail which could provide such information, however in relative terms the absolute numbers are still relatively low so in any one month you may get massive variances. Keith

Unfortunately I do not have access to this data – we get the top line data from Terralink. Within the data is the detail which could provide such information, however in relative terms the absolute numbers are still relatively low so in any one month you may get massive variances.

]]> By: Keith http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-2729 Keith Sun, 22 Nov 2009 18:32:38 +0000 http://www.unconditional.co.nz/blog/?p=4597#comment-2729 Some good data Alistair. It would be interesting to see data on failed development mortgagee sales. Have we seen the last of them, or are there more to come ? Another factor in the delay between financial decline and Mortgagee sales is the time it takes for a property to get to Mortgagee sale status, probably around a year or so by my guess, from losing your job to the point the bank takes over. Some good data Alistair.
It would be interesting to see data on failed development mortgagee sales. Have we seen the last of them, or are there more to come ?

Another factor in the delay between financial decline and Mortgagee sales is the time it takes for a property to get to Mortgagee sale status, probably around a year or so by my guess, from losing your job to the point the bank takes over.

]]> By: Alistair Helm http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-2728 Alistair Helm Sun, 22 Nov 2009 17:18:09 +0000 http://www.unconditional.co.nz/blog/?p=4597#comment-2728 Steve, The first chart is in someways over simplistic, and for that I do apologise. The fact is that it is a useful indicator of the ratio of mortgagee sales to total sales. The reality is that within the total mortgagee sales reported by Terralink are transactions that are not truly residential sales - for example there are commercial property sales, development projects and some businesses. The denominator in this chart is the REINZ monthly sales data. Having said all of that for complete transparency the fact is these factors would have been consistent through out the reporting period so the scale of the increase would be just as marked, it just might be that instead of 5% of all sales being mortgagee it may be 4%. Steve,

The first chart is in someways over simplistic, and for that I do apologise. The fact is that it is a useful indicator of the ratio of mortgagee sales to total sales. The reality is that within the total mortgagee sales reported by Terralink are transactions that are not truly residential sales – for example there are commercial property sales, development projects and some businesses. The denominator in this chart is the REINZ monthly sales data.

Having said all of that for complete transparency the fact is these factors would have been consistent through out the reporting period so the scale of the increase would be just as marked, it just might be that instead of 5% of all sales being mortgagee it may be 4%.

]]> By: Steve Netwiter http://unconditional.co.nz/blog/mortgagee-data-provides-valuable-insight-into-economic-situation/comment-page-1/#comment-2727 Steve Netwiter Sun, 22 Nov 2009 09:33:31 +0000 http://www.unconditional.co.nz/blog/?p=4597#comment-2727 Thanks Alistair :) I had no idea mortgagee sales were up to 5% of all sales! Great data as always :) Thanks Alistair :)

I had no idea mortgagee sales were up to 5% of all sales!
Great data as always :)

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