The Unconditional Blog

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Economic outlook for 2011 with a focus on the property market

Posted on: December 17th, 2010 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Money Matters

Stockmarket screenI was delighted recently to have the chance to sit down and chat with Shamubeel Eaqub. Shamubeel is the Principal Economist with the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research and as such is a respected economist and often quoted and interviewed personality.

I was keen to have the opportunity for Shamubeel to bring some insight into the broad economic outlook for the next 12 months with naturally a focus to the property market.

As someone who has by his own admission been a serious pessimist over the economy over the past 3 years, Shamubeel reveals in the interview a sense that we are beginning to see the early signs of a brighter future – by no means a buoyant one, but an outlook that holds stronger economic growth than we have seen lately.

The interview is extensive and at just over 30 minutes (we cover a lot of detail) we split the video in two parts.

Part 1

Part 2

Article Discussion

  1. One of the better summaries of the impact of the recession on the NZ property market and a good insight into what the future may hold.

    Tony Alexander of BNZ has his year end report at http://www.bnz.co.nz/personal-banking/be-money-smart/economic-commentary-and-insight/weekly-overview

    “For those looking for certainty we say forget it. These are the most volatile and uncertain times many people in business will have ever seen and we see no reason at all for believing that 2011 will be any less up and down or uncertain than this year, last year, 2008, and even 2007 when we were wondering when tightening NZ monetary policy would finally achieve its goal of stopping rampant housing and retailing markets.”

  2. J.C. says:

    I would have thought that any discussion on property in NZ should focus primarily on the issue of credit availability and debt, so I’m somewhat disappointed with the interview. The interviewee drifted around the issue by suggesting that “fundamentals will catch up”, but a year of improved savings rates isn’t going to improve NZ’s private fiscal position in a hurry. Therefore, any debate should perhaps be focused on the banking sector and how it plans to bankroll the debt train going forward. Fundamentally, that is your key driver of housing activity. Perhaps we should be more focused on what is happening with banking reform in Australia.

  3. Alistair Helm says:

    Thanks to both Ross and J.C. for those comments.

    This was the first long-form video we have done for Unconditional and I think it is important to get feedback to guide us. I would confess that I do not see myself as a serious journalist or interviewee. The objective was to provide an opportunity for an economist of the credibility of Shamubeel to add his thoughts.

    I think your points J.C. are valid in the context of opening up areas of discussion outside of those discussed in the interview – will try and get Shamubeel to respond here.

  4. Tony says:

    Just for the sake of clarification Alistair, you would be the InterviewER so perhaps JC’s comment was aimed at Shamubeel rather than yourself.

  5. Alistair Helm says:

    Tony

    Very good point – was I being too sensitive!! – or was I too hasty in making that assumption. Either way useful feedback for future interviews. Thanks.

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