The Property Market Pulse report provides a set of factsheets for each of the 19 regions of the country consolidating the latest data from key sources in the real restate market. From the Real Estate Institute (REINZ) comes the latest sales numbers for September as well as the median sales price for key regions and the stratified sales price for key centers. From the Realestate.co.nz comprehensive database of listings comes the key measure of inventory of unsold properties on the market.
The number of property sales is a key measure of buyer activity. The Real Estate Institute release this data on a monthly basis from the sales made by all licensed agents in the prior month making this data the most timely and comprehensive. Actual monthly sales data is effected by seasonal factors, for this reason seasonally adjusted data is presented which clearly shows one month to the next if the sales are going up or down.
Sales in September totaled 4,323. On a seasonally adjusted basis as presented in the chart above the sales were up just 0.6% on August. As compared to September 2009 this month’s sales represent a fall of 33%. The level of sales in the calendar year to date reflect closely the sales levels of 2008 rather than 2009. In the first 9 months of 2008 sales totaled 43,131; in 2009 they totaled 52,394 and in this current year the total is 42,630.
As is highlighted in the regional reports the impact of the Canterbury earthquake significantly impacted not just that region but the national numbers. The Canterbury sales impact probably amounted to around a 5% decline on a national basis as the region itself suffered a close to 40% decline.
The selling price of properties measures that critical balance between what a buyer is prepared to pay and what a seller is prepared to accept. The Real Estate Institute data of prior month sales produces a median price. This raw number is then re-calculated through a model developed in partnership with the Reserve Bank of NZ to create a Stratified Price, which ensures that volume changes in key price segments do not skew the figures.
The stratified price fell in September at $359,555 reflects a marginal change on August when the price level was $360,675. The level of sales price using this accurate stratified method has been without any great volatility for the majority of this year after recovering from the market lows of 2009. At this current level it represents a 5.6% fall from the peak of the market back in November 2007.
Stock of Property
The number of properties on the month is provided from Realestate.co.nz data and measures the level of seller activity in the market. The data represents the total number of new listings coming onto the market each month and is compiled at the start of each month for the prior month and is published in the NZ Property Report. The measure of properties on the market is represented by the number of weeks of equivalent sales, and judged on a comparative basis with prior months more accurately reflects the state of the market.
The level of inventory of properties on the market measured in equivalent weeks of sale picked up slightly in September. It now stands at 47 weeks as compared to 46 weeks in August and compares to 32 weeks in September last year. The long term average is around 38 weeks which would indicate that the market is still very much in favour of buyers rather than sellers.
These statistics are the aggregation of all the statistics from across the country. As is well know by those in the industry, real estate is a local business and in an attempt to provide greater insight into the local market the same set of key data – sales, selling price and inventory has been calculated for each of the 19 regions of the country. Check out the factsheet for your local region to see what is happening in your neck of the woods.
Central North Island
Bay of Plenty
Manawatu / Wanganui