The Unconditional Blog

The impartial voice of the industry

 

Archive for the ‘Real Estate Industry’ Category

1

NZ Property Report – September 2013

Posted on: October 1st, 2013 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report, Real Estate Industry, Regional News

blue pen and small houseThe September 2013 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of September. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – September 2013 is published below and is available for download (950kb) and distribution.

Summary of the market – September 2013

National average asking price hits new record high of $466,526

CoverPage_Report_Sep13

Seller confidence has pushed up the (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price to a new high of $466,526. The rise in asking price was noticeable across more than half of New Zealand, with 14 regions reporting a rise in asking price.

Record high asking prices were also seen in Waikato and Coromandel regions; the new high of $384,595 in Waikato represents a 3.9% increase on August. While Coromandel’s new high was 1.4% up to $505,867 from the prior high of $498,660 set last month.

The first month of spring saw a steady number of new listings come on the market, with 11,000 new listings in September, this was up 2.7% from August, however was slightly down on September 2012.

Asking Price

SA_AskingPrice_Sep13

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for new listings hit a new record high of $466,526 last month, a rise of 8.7% from September 2012, and up 0.7% from August.

The trend as seen in the chart opposite, continues to show strength in seller price expectation, on the back of low listings, and strong demand in the main centres

New Listings

TotalNewListings_Sep13The level of new listings coming onto the market in September rose to 11,000 from 10,715 in August. This represents a rise of 2.7%, and is down, 1.4% when compared to September last year

On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 131,189 new listings have come onto the market since October 2012 as compared to 130,915 in the prior 12 month period, a rise of just 0.2%.

 

Inventory

InventorySA_MMA_Sep13The level of unsold homes on the market at the end of September (36,178) remained well down as compared to September last year (41,726), a drop of 13%.

The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales remained close to the record low seen last month, 24.2 weeks of stock available.

The market remains firmly a seller’s market; with 16 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels that are well below long term averages.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Regional map of asking price NZ Property Report Sep_2013The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose by 0.7% in September to a new record high asking price of $466,526.

Record high asking prices were also seen in Waikato, where the average asking price reached $384,595 (up 8.5% on September 2012), and the Coromandel, where the asking price reached $505,867 (up 15.9% on September 2012).

In the main centres, Auckland fell in September to $644,968, from the record high reported last month. The asking price in both Wellington and Canterbury rose in September to $446,503, and $418,032 respectively.

In total 14 regions reported asking price increases, with Marlbourgh the largest increase, up 18.6% to $435,773. Of the 5 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was just one that reported a fall greater than 5%, Wairarapa fell by 5.5% to $255,747.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Regional map of new listings NZ Property Report Sep_2013Spring listings began flowing onto the market last month, with 11,000 new homes coming on the market.

There were 9 regions reporting year on year increases with Northland reporting the biggest increase of listings (up 41.2%), followed by West Coast, where a 38.6% increase was recorded.

Of the 10 regions that reported lower new listings than September last year Gisborne was the region to report the highest fall -25% when compared to September 2012, followed by Marlbourgh, which saw a fall of 22%.

In the main centers, Auckland had a similar number of new listing as September 2012. Both Wellington, and Christchurch saw a fall in listings; with Canterbury reporting a 2.5% year on year fall, and Wellington reporting a 11.8% fall on September 2012.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Regional map of inventory NZ Property Report Sep_2013The inventory of unsold homes on the market remained low in September at 24 weeks of equivalent sales.

Market sentiment remains firmly in favour of sellers in 16 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 12 regions that are marked in darker blue. This includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

Two regions (Southland, and West Coast) showed an increase in inventory of homes on the market, taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition 1 other region (Gisborne) sits close to its long-term average.

 

Lifestyle

LifestyleListings_Sep13New lifestyle property listings had a boost across the country in September. A total of 847 listings came onto the market, showing a jump of 13% when compared to August, but a fall of 11% when compared to September last year. The national truncated mean asking price for these listings was up 5.7% to a record high of $706,799 (and up 8.8% when compared to September 2012). Record high asking prices were reported in Auckland, Waikato, and Canterbury.

Apartments

ApartmentListing_Sep13New listings for apartments in September were up 2.1% on a year on year basis, and down 10.6% from August, with 487 being brought to the market. The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings rose 1% to $407,989 in September from $404,392 in August, and was up 2% on a year on year basis.

The Auckland apartment market had 384 new listings, down 0.3% when compared to August last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose 1.6% to $390,850, from $384,816 in August. When compared to the recent 3-month average, this represents an increase of 2.1%.

For Media Enquiries, please contact:

Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Or Phillip Dunn, Acting CEO, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 807 640

Notes:

Truncated mean The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures. The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 97% of all offices. With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

Seasonally adjustment The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

Background to Realestate.co.nz Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%). The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 550,000 unique browsers, with over 120,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ. In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 30% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 170,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 3,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 10,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 25,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 3,500 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. The full NZ Property Report for September 2013 can be downloaded here (950kb pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for October 2013 will be published on this website on 1st November 2013 at 10am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

If you have any comments or enquiries about the NZ Property Market or about marketing your property online, please contact me via EmailGoogle, or Twitter

 

1

NZ Property Report – June 2013

The June 2013 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of June. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – June 2013 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – June 2013

Inventory of unsold houses drops to 6 year low

The inventory of unsold properties in New Zealand has fallen to the lowest point in six years, reporting just 24.9 weeks nationwide. The record shortage was driven by low inventory in all major regions, with Canterbury, Waikato and Central Otago all witnessing new all-time lows. Wellington also fell to just 15.4 weeks, the lowest since November 2009, while Auckland recovered slightly from last month’s record low to 12.3 weeks, but still sits 58% below its long term average of 29 weeks.

The number of new listings coming to the market in June was down 5% on the same time last year to the lowest June listings in 7 years. The figure of 9,082 follows strong listing numbers in April and May.

Asking prices eased slightly in June, to $450,178 (down just 1% from the record high figure seen in May). In the main centres, both Wellington and Canterbury asking prices rose 1% to $451,622 (Wellington), and 410,723 (Canterbury). The asking price in Auckland witnessed a slight fall in June (down 1.3% to $623,471). All three regions sit close to their respective asking price peaks.

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings fell slightly in June to $450,178, down 1% on the record set in May. This represented a year on year increase of 5.7%.

The trend as seen in the chart opposite, continues to show strength in seller price expectation, on the back of low listings, and strong demand in the main centres

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in June fell back to 9,082 from 11,045 in May. This represents a fall of 18%, and was the lowest number of June listings for 7 years, demonstrating that the sellers are still apprehensive of listing their properties despite the record low inventory.

On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 130,547 new listings have come to the market since July 2012, as compared to 130,188 in the prior 12 month period, a rise of just 0.3%. This compares to REINZ reported sales, which are up 16% on a 12 month comparable basis.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of June (37,615) was down 5%, when compared to May (39,698). Inventory, as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales fell in June to a record low of 24.9 weeks, remaining well below the long-term average of 38 weeks.

The market remains firmly a seller’s market; with 14 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels that are well below long term averages. Canterbury, Waikato, and Central Lakes continue to witness the highest extent of this, reaching record low inventory in June.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national asking price expectation among sellers fell by just 1% in June, from the record high set in May, to an asking price of $450,178. (seasonally adjusted truncated mean).

In the main centres, both Wellington and Canterbury asking prices rose 1% to $451,622 (Wellington), and 410,723 (Canterbury). The asking price in Auckland witnessed a slight fall in September (down 1.3% to $623,471). All three regions sit close to their respective asking price peaks.

In total 10 regions reported asking price increases, and just 1 region saw a rise of greater than 5%. The most significant rise was seen in the Wairarapa, up 5.1% to $267,350. Of the 9 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there were 5 that reported a fall greater than 5%. The most significant falls were seen in Gisborne, Taranaki, Nelson, Manawatu / Wanganui and Central Otago / Lakes regions, with Central Otago / Lakes showing the largest fall, down 13% to $614,071.

Regional Summary – Listings

The picture for new listings across the country continues to show that there is a reluctance to bring new properties to the market. There were 14 of the 19 regions that reported new listings down on the prior year, with just 1 of these reporting a fall of over 20%.

The most significant drop in listings was seen in West Coast, which fell by 26.5%.

Of the 5 regions that reported higher new listings than June last year, Nelson was the region to report the highest increase, up 15.4% when compared to June 2012, followed by Northland which saw an increase of 7.6%.

Auckland listings were down 6.8% in June to 3,162 new listings. The lack of new listings coming to the market puts further pressure on the Auckland market, resulting in a record low available inventory of just 6976 homes (29% down from June 2012)

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

The inventory of unsold homes on the market tightened to a all time low of 25 weeks of equivilent sales in June.

Canterbury, Waikato, and Central Otago / Lakes hit record low inventory levels in June; with Canterbury falling to 13.9 weeks, 53% below its long term average; Waikato falling to 29.6 weeks, 35% below its long term average; and Central Otago falling to 61 weeks, 36% below its long term average

Market sentiment continues to favour sellers in 15 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 11 regions that are marked in darker blue. This includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Canterbury, and Wellington, which all remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

Just one region (Southland) showed an increase in inventory of homes on the market taking it above their respective long-term average. In addition 3 regions (Central North Island, Marlborough, and Taranaki) sit close to their long term averages.

Lifestyle

New lifestyle property listings fell across the country in June. A total of just 683 listings came onto the market, showing a fall of 29% when compared to May, and a fall of 15.4% when compared to June last year. Canterbury saw record low numbers of new lifestyle listings with just 62 coming to the market. The national truncated mean asking price of $645,204 for these listings, was down by 2.6% as compared to the recent 3-month average (but up 1.8% when compared to June 2012).

Apartments

New listings for apartments in June were down 1.3% on a year on year basis, and down 19.5% from May, with 450 being brought to the market. The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings fell 2.5% to $374,374 in June from $383,953 in May, and was down 1.9% on a year on year basis.

The Auckland apartment market had 316 new listings, up 9% when compared to June last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland fell to $354,882, down  from $348,476 in May. When compared to the recent 3-month average, this represents a fall of 3.2%.

For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures. The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 97% of all offices. With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

Seasonally adjustment The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

Background to Realestate.co.nz Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%). The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 500,000 unique browsers, with over 120,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ. In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 30% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 160,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 3,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 10,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 25,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 3,500 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. The full NZ Property Report for June 2013 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for July 2013 will be published on this website on 1st August 2013 at 10am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

If you have any comments or enquiries about the NZ Property Market or about marketing your property online, please contact me via EmailGoogle, or Twitter

1

NZ Property Report – January 2013

The January 2013 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of January. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – January 2013 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – January 2013

Property market remains tight over summer as buyer interest surges to record heights

The first month of the year is traditionally a quiet period, with significantly less business days, and therefore listings coming onto the market tend to be subdued. This trend continued in 2013, with the New Year starting with both low levels of inventory of properties for sale, and a sluggish flow of new listings. Website traffic in January was a different story though, with over 1.5 million visits to Realestate.co.nz, hitting a new record (source – Google Analytics). It will be interesting to see how this increase in traffic translates into the REINZ sales data for January (released in the second week of February) and into both sales and new listings in February.

Asking prices rebounded in January, with the national (seasonally adjusted) mean reaching $440,507, just shy of the record asking prices seen in November last year of $446,277. This asking price increase was mainly driven by the Auckland market, which reached $607,226 (over $600,000 for a second time in history).

While some stabilisation was seen in January, inventory levels across the country remain low and the market remains a firm seller’s market across 13 of New Zealand’s 19 regions.

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in January rose by 4% to $440,507. It represents a 5% year-on-year growth in the asking price as compared to January last year. The highest year-on-year growth was seen in Auckland, rising 12.4% to $607,226.

The trend as seen in the chart opposite, continues to show strength in seller expectation, on the back of low listings, and strong demand in the main centers

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in January rose on a seasonally adjusted basis, with a total of 8,849 new listings, representing a modest 4% year-on-year raise.

On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 132,550 new listings have come onto the market since January 2012 as compared to 124,990 in the prior 12-month period, this represents a rise of 6%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of January (43,506) was up slightly, when compared to December (42,513). The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales rose in January to 28.7 weeks, the same levels seen in November last year

While this increase in the last month was seen in 13 of the 19 NZ regions, the market remains firmly a seller’s market, and inventory on the market remains well below the long-term average of 39 weeks of equivalent sales.

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose by 4.2% in January to $440,507.

The main centers, Auckland, and Canterbury reported a rise in the asking price in January. Auckland rose 3.3% to $607,226, and Canterbury rose 3.5% to $402,742. Wellington reported a slight fall in asking price of -0.3% to $433,347.

In total 9 regions reported asking price increases, and 4 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in Otago, Central Otago / Lakes, Northland, and Marlbourgh, with Otago showing the largest increase, up 8% to a record high of $299,845. Of the 10 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there were 6 that reported falls of greater than 5% with Southland falling by 14.6% to $225,541, Gisborne falling by 14.4% to $287,573, Wairarapa falling by 9.5% to $272,996, Coromandel falling 6.5% to $403,748, Nelson fell 6% to $424,463 and Manawatu/Wanganui fell 5.5% to $255,879.

A new record high asking price was seen in Otago, rising by 8% to $299,845.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Overall new listings increased on a national basis, as seen in the adjacent chart and across the regions there were slightly more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 6 regions reporting year-on-year falls, with significant falls (over 20%) seen in just 1 region, Taranaki – falling by 30.8% when compared to January 2012.

11 regions reported higher new listings than January last year with Gisborne being the region to report the highest increase of 41.1% when compared to January 2012, followed by Otago who saw an increase of 27.2%, Central North Is with an increase of 24%, and Southland who saw an increase of 20.5%.

The data month for February will be interesting to review, as it is traditionally one of the biggest listing months of the year. Last year that total was over 13,000, Auckland seeing the majority with over 4,500 coming to the market.

Regional Summary – Inventory

The inventory of unsold homes on the market stabilised in January – rising back to November levels of 29 weeks of equivalent sales from 27 weeks (on a seasonally adjusted basis).

Four regions (West Coast, Southland, Gisborne and Taranaki) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition two other regions (Otago and Wairarapa) sit close to their respective long-term averages.

Market sentiment continues to favour sellers in 13 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 7 regions that are marked in darker blue. This includes the main metro areas of Auckland, and Canterbury which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity. 

Auckland saw some stabilisation of inventory levels in January, rising from the record low seen in December of 14 weeks, to 15 weeks of inventory in January.

 

Lifestyle

New lifestyle property listings fell across the country in January, dropping 19.8% when compared to December. A total of 652 listings came onto the market, showing a fall of 2.8% when compared to January last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was up by 1.4% as compared to the recent 3-month average to an asking price of $653,269 (up 5.2% when compared to January 2012). New record high asking prices were seen in one region in New Zealand (Otago $600,500).

 

Apartments

New listings for apartments in January were up 16.8% on a year on year basis, with 334 being brought to the market. The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings rose 1.9% to $385,821 in January from $378,750 in December, and was up 10.3% on a year on year basis. 

The Auckland apartment market had 197 new listings coming onto the market, up 10% when compared to January last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose to $375,887 (January) from $352,787 (December). When compared to the recent 3-month average, this represents a rise of 0.5%.

 

For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 475,000 unique browsers, with over 115,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 29% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 134,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for January 2013 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for February 2013 will be published on this website on 1st March 2013 at 11am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

5

Shortage of listings is key to the state of the property market

The monthly sales report from the Real Estate Institute (REINZ) states clearly that “Listings tight in June housing market” – this assessment comes from “strong indications from agents in many regions that the supply of properties is really tightening“.

This perception is reality; the data in the monthly NZ Property Report underpins this with the numbers to show the decline in new listings as detailed in the chart below.

Listing numbers have been falling steadily for over a year, and matched to a slowly rising rate of sales, is beginning to show in the declining stock of homes on the market. This could potentially lead to a demand heavy market which could see price pressure in the medium term.

To better highlight the listings to sales ratios; I have developed these charts to show the picture nationally and regionally. I have assessed the property market based on the first 6 months of 2011 vs the first 6 months of 2010. Nationally this year is showing sales down 1% – however if you remove the Canterbury region the national picture shows a 4% growth in sales. Matched to this is a 14% decline in new listings (17% decline if you include Canterbury).

The chart ably demonstrates why Auckland is most definitely feeling the effect of a tighter property market – sales up 10% and listings down 13%. Wellington sales are sluggish but again listings are down 12% whilst Canterbury is experiencing the unique aspects of the earthquake of February.

Looking around the country the regions that are showing growth in sales year-on-year are grouped in the chart below. Eight of the 19 regions show year-on-year growth in sales – the West Coast of the south island topping out with a sales rise of 14%. All regions though show declines in listings.

The remaining 11 regions of the country presented in the chart below are witnessing year-on-year sales declines, some double digit declines. Equally they all (with the exception of Nelson) are seeing declining listings, largely in line or greater than the decline in sales.

5

Australian real estate industry lines up to challenge web leader

Posted on: June 27th, 2011 | Filed in Featured, International, Real Estate Industry, Real Estate Industry News

NZ’ers are always interested to see what is going on in Australia and when it comes to online real estate we here at Realestate.co.nz are always interested to see what is happening on the other side of the ditch. At the moment it seems quite a lot judging by the front page headline from the Australian Financial Review.

Real Estate Agents ready to “revolt” reads the headline. It appears that after more than a decade of benefiting from the online transition of property buyers from print to the web,  with the consequential financial savings; the industry is now revolting from what they see as exorbitant charges from the online market leader realestate.com.au (just for clarity there is no connection between our site realestate.co.nz and the Australian site of the same domain name).

Realestate.com.au (REA Group) has been a stellar success of web marketing, founded before the dotcom crash of 2000 it has grown from nothing to now be valued at in excess of A$1.6bn as an ASX listed company (the majority shareholder is News Corporation). The site holds the lion’s share of web visitors and around 95% of all listings. The chart below tracks the leadership in web traffic by realestate.com.au to its nearest competitor (Fairfax owned domain.com.au).

With this powerful position of dominance of the collective eyeballs of property buyers and the dominance of content, the company has over the past decade grown revenue from a couple of million dollars to well over A$160m. On average each real estate office in Australia pays realestate.com.au over A$1,000 a month and this scale of fee combined with the regularity with which they increase this fee now has the industry up in arms in a very public manner. The industry as reported in the article is looking to band together under what they are calling “Project Rebellion” to power an alternative website with which they hope to secure a competitive threat to submit realestate.com.au into reducing fees or potentially remove it from the market.

Could this happen? – the rich and comprehensive content of real estate listing is what property buyers seek, in theory they will go to the site that has the most content. That content is totally in the control of the agents, so in theory this is possible. However consumers are creatures of habit and have no idea what constitutes comprehensive content. A new website would have to spend a lot of money promoting itself to create awareness to say it was the “new home” of property listings online. At the same time the agents would all in unison have to stop using realestate.com.au, something many in the industry might be wary of doing as it is a very powerful and effective advertising medium for their clients listings with over 7 million monthly unique visitors.

The whole challenging conundrum is very well detailed in an article by Simon Baker in the Property Observer – his summation is that there is very little chance of this initiative having any legs. As a point of note Simon Baker is the former CEO of realestate.com.au and still remains a shareholder. As he states in his article, the publication of this story in the Fin Review last week knocked 5% off the market value of REA amounting to a paper depreciation of the company’s value of some A$80m – that personally impacts Simon.

New Zealand

What implications might this initiative in Australia have for the NZ industry?

In NZ there are really two key online real estate websites. Trade me Property has the highest level of website visitors. In the past month it received over 1.4 million unique browsers as measured by Nielsen online, by comparison realestate.co.nz received just over 400,000 unique browsers (as a point of reference there were just 5,766 properties sold in the month, which just goes to show the casual browsing appeal of property to kiwis). In terms of content realestate.co.nz holds the most comprehensive selection of listings from licensed agents – around 95% of all such listings. Trade me property has more listings in total on their site, however their licensed real estate listings are supplemented by a significant number of private sale listings.

Trade me Property is owned by Fairfax media whereas Realestate.co.nz is owned by two shareholders – the Real Estate Institute holds 50% and the balance is held by 6 of the larger real estate companies (Harcourts, Harveys, Ray White, Bayleys, Barfoot & Thompson and LJ Hooker).

In NZ there is a disparity of what each website charges for its services to its agent. Realestate.co.nz has a two tier subscription based on office size. Large offices (more than 6 active salespeople) are charged $300 per month with small offices $225 per month. The charges for Trade me are higher at $799 per month. Certainly the real estate companies in NZ do not pay as much as their counterparts in Australia, however when seen in perspective of the relevance of online marketing and how much it has made print media so redundant for property marketing, it is somewhat surprising that this reaction is happening at all.

2

Keeping up to date with the property market

Posted on: January 26th, 2011 | Filed in Featured, Market News, Real Estate Industry, REINZ Monthly data

Perfect image of houses croppedIt is late January and I must admit the Unconditional blog has been a bit quiet for the past few weeks as an extended vacation has meant I have not addressed an update on the NZ Property market.

Well, now back firmly in the chair,  I intend to address this issue by providing some key facts of assistance to any prospective buyer or seller as well as those fond of keeping a close eye on the property market.

The first data of 2011 will be published next Tuesday, the 1st of February when the NZ Property Report from Realestate.co.nz is published. The data will detail the level of activity of new listings coming onto the market in the first month of this new year. Suffice to say at this stage it is looking to be pretty quiet as far as new listings are concerned.

Closing out 2010 data from the Real Estate Institute showed sales in December of 4,397 properties, this was though up a seasonally adjusted 7.1% from the November sales; which itself was up a seasonally adjusted 23% from October.

However despite this recent pick-up in sales the total sales in the full calendar year were just 56,303. This figure is a mere 175 properties more than the lowest year since recording data back to 1992 (that prior lowest was 2008). It is very clear from the chart below the new levels of property sales of the past3 years since the turning point in the market.

NZ Property sales each year 1992 to 2010 REINZ Realestate.co.nz

Whilst the calendar year data shows the big picture it is inadequate in highlighting trends. For this I favour the seasonally adjusted monthly sales tracking as detailed in the chart below tracing the past 5 years by month since January 2006.

Seasonally_adjusted_monthly_sales_to_Dec_2010

In separating key periods I have tried to highlight the trends. The start of 2006 saw a fairly stable period for well over a year, right up to the turning point in the market in early 2007. The next year saw a significant fall to late summer 2008. Then followed a 9 month period of stability – a sense of adjustment before a resurgence occurred through a 7 month period in mid 2009. Unfortunately that resurgence ran out of steam as Spring 2009 appeared and the market has subsequently been sent backwards for the next 12 months.

To call a turning point is risky, but the chart does show some favourable signs through the past 3 months. As ever it is better to reflect after 6 months than just one quarter.

Sales volumes are a key indicator of the health of the market from the perspective of activity (as without buyer you have no market!). The level of demand is often best represented by price movements and to close out 2010 it is worth looking at what the trends are for property sales price. Using the Stratified House Price Index provided by the Real Estate Institute in consultation with the Reserve Bank as the measure, the chart below tracks the national price over the past 4 years.

Stratified_price_-_Dec_2010

The December stratified median price was $360,660 down from the November levels and as shown from the chart, down 5.3% from the peak price in the market back in November 2007. The selling price over the past 12 to 15 months has been tracking in a very narrow band from $370,000 to just below $357,000, there does appear to be a slight decline, but given the split axis this trend is very slight and it might be better to call these prices stable. Which when set against global property price movements of the past couple of years would be seen as favourable by the more optimistic among those property watchers.

7

New real estate business model emerging for 2011

Posted on: October 11th, 2010 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, International, Real Estate Industry

Any business needs to adapt to survive – real estate is no different, and as such it should not be surprising to see new business models emerge to challenge established practice. Just such a new model is planning to launch across the Tasman in the early part of next year, and may in time enter NZ at some stage given the similarity of markets.

Refund Real Estate - Refund Real Estate

Refund Real Estate is currently advertising to attract new franchisee to provide a platform for a national launch. The business is a springboard extension from the company’s foundation of mortgage broking which began in 2004.

The business model for the mortgage broking service is to provide a ‘refund’ of part of the commission from brokering the loan with a bank or lending institution back to the person who has applied for and ultimately takes on the mortgage. This model is what has been called “less than free*” – given the fact that all mortgage brokers do not charge clients as they earn fees from the lenders, offering a refund or rebate is a legitimate means of establishing a point of difference. The lending institution is not overly concerned that its commission is being split with the broker, the broker has the marketing advantage and the client gets a discount.

The advertising on the new real estate website indicates that this will be the model for the real estate business. They state that “For the first time Australian customers, both buyers and sellers, will received a cash refund when they buy and sell property with us!”

In the USA there are business models in real estate that provide a cash back incentive for buyers to use a particular agency. This model works because the US brokerage model has both buyers agents and sellers agents. Each agent operates exclusively for their specific client and acts in their best interest. In the US it would be seen as a conflict of interest for an agent to represent both the seller and the buyer or at least broker the deal between them directly.

Both agents to a deal are paid through a split in the commission (in the US the commissions – paid by the seller, are considerably higher at around 4.5% to 6%). In this way a buyers agency can offer a cash back to the buyer by splitting their commission and thereby offering a “less than free service” as the seller is paying for the overall service of the two agents.

It will be very interesting to see the success and reaction to this business model in Australia when it launches. Certainly a buyer may well be attracted to contact an office of Refund Real Estate so as to ensure they get a cash refund for buying the house through them. However certainly in the beginning without a large portfolio of listings it may be hard for them to convince established agents and offices that they hold value in this buyer, given the fact that buyers can talk to any agent.

Another interesting point highlighted to me when discussing this model with an agent was the fact that the service of real estate in NZ (and similarly in Australia) is solely  a service provided to the seller who pays the agent to act entirely in their best interest. Given this, how would a seller feel to see that their fees go to not only pay for an agent representing a buyer who will be motivated to negotiate directly against the seller, but then for some of that fee go to the buyer?

At this stage there is not yet a clear detail surrounding this new ‘refund’ model – when it launches to the public it will be interesting to see how it works and the reaction it generates in the media and the industry across the ditch.

* “Less than free” was a term I first came across when reading Chris Anderson’s book ‘Free’. The concept is that many businesses these days (particularly online) seek to attract audiences with free offerings – in many cases to then in time to upsell to premium charged services – this is called Freemium. The concept of Less than free comes from the idea of where do you go to compete with free? – well less than free is where you actually pay the consumer to use your product or service in the belief that the experience will be rewarding and ultimately profitable in the long run. In this case for real estate the value will not come in the long run as there is not likely to be repeat purchase so “less than free” has to be funded from another party paying enough to allow for this incentive.
3

Real estate giving back to the community

Posted on: July 29th, 2010 | Filed in Real Estate Industry

It goes without saying that the real estate industry is an extensive industry employing somewhere in the region of 12,000 people encompassing both active selling agents and support teams. These people are active members of the community, everyday meeting and engaging in the life of the communities they are apart of from Kaitaia to the Bluff. Think of the last time you drove through provincial NZ and reflect on the fact that every high street will likely as not have at least one real estate office.

This engagement with local communities extends beyond the employment; for almost all real estate companies in one way or another are huge supporters of voluntary community organisations and charities.

Child Cancer Foundation - HomeThis was brought home to my last night when I was invited to attend the Professionals Group Company dinner. The event which brought together the business owners from across the 78 offices provided an opportunity for their chosen charity – The Child Cancer Foundation to provide an update on the great work that organisation undertakes to provide the families and patients coping with childhood cancer to live as normal a life as possible. They believes that no child or their family walking the childhood cancer journey should ever feel alone.

I, like all of the attendees of the dinner could not help, but be moved by the amazing work this charity does, but also the courage of the wonderful children who are battling something that should not be a part of a young persons life. To have a charity such as the Child Cancer Foundation is truly wonderful and to have an organisation like the Professionals Group commit such resources and dedication to running fund raising events as well as pledging a component of each transaction to the funding of this charity is indeed humbling. I can say with all honesty I was moved today to make a donation to show my appreciation and support.

I would also like to acknowledge the charitable support that other real estate companies within the industry provide – not by any means a comprehensive list and I apologise if I omit some, but hopefully it demonstrates the commitment of this industry that pours millions of dollars each year into charitable and community organisations.

Bayleys sponsor Guide dogs for the blind

Barfoot &Thompson are a supporter of the Starship Foundation

Ray White support the Ronald McDonald House

Harcourts have a Foundation that supports community organisations

Harveys has a charitable trust – the Stepping Stone Foundation

LJ Hooker has a Foundation that supports both charitable and community projects

9

Connect – the global conference where technology and real estate “connect”

Posted on: July 17th, 2010 | Filed in Featured, International, Real Estate Industry, Technology, Website searching

San Francisco skylineWhat began as a small gathering of technologists and tech minded real estate people over a decade and a half ago has evolved into the most significant global conference on real estate – not just real estate technology. I make this statement as the reality is that technology is, has been, and will in the future, continue to be the largest change agent of this industry globally.

Connect is hosted by Inman News – the specialist news service for the real estate industry and its charismatic founder and host of the conference Brad Inman.

This year’s San Francisco event (they are hosted twice a year – New York in January) has just wrapped up and for me as a regular attendee the value of the event never fails to deliver.

A key essence of the event is information overload. The feeling that after 3 days you have been exposed to the largest mass of insight and emerging comprehension of where this industry is heading in the future. There are always (I sense deliberately) more sessions and content than one person alone can consume. That means that after these 3 days I have to sit down and re-read the scribbled notes and digest the learning in order to come up with a picture that has emerged from the conference.

There isn’t a single message promoted as the theme of the conference, but there is always, in summing up the conference an emerging train of thought that can best describe the conference. For me this year that came from one of the final speakers on the last day – Matt Gilligan of SimpleGeo, who made the simple statement that “Location is Context”. A simple statement, but in my mind loaded with powerful inference. For over the past 2 years the emerging role of mobile technologies has grown and grown to the situation where at this conference more than any other preceding Connect conference mobile was all anyone talked about. Mobile is all about location and being location aware is in a broader context a radical paradigm shift for almost all businesses, however for real estate location is at its very core. The phrase “Location, Location, Location” is an international phrase as well known as the McDonalds “I’m Loving it” or Nike’s “Just do it”

A show of hands ably demonstrated the view of the attendees (some 2,000 of them) as to ownership of smart phones (>70%) and iPads (c.15% after just 3 months on sale!). This industry, or at least those at the forefront of technology adoption within it, are embracing mobile as a game changer for the industry. The exhibiting companies as well as almost all presenters talked and demonstrated smart phone apps and iPad apps – next year this portfolio will undoubtedly extend to include Andriod and potentially Microsoft Mobile Window 7.

Another interesting stream of content from the conference of specific relevance to Realestate.co.nz was the whole area of search. A couple of excellent panel discussions and workshop looked at search as the online tool of entry to the real estate marketplace. Providing an unbiased and external perspective was Gary Flake of Microsoft who rightly asked the question; could there be a better way of searching for property? after all the facet based search on price, bedrooms, bathrooms and property type is really a crude way of interpreting the characteristics of lifestyle / lifestage. This theme was picked up by a workshop group who having the benefit of a 24 period to debate and discuss the issue came back with some excellent proposals around leveraging the “Social Graph” to apply all that accessible online information tied up collectively in all your personal behaviours, actions and intent online to better present property that really should suit you.

The practical application being that if you were able to share your key social graph around these parameters – salary = price range; family scale = size of house; age = size of house / location; entertainment likes & activity = location / style of house. All of these clues are bound up in your profile & activity on sites such as Facebook / LinkedIn / Amazon / iTunes / Netflix / your bank account. Now clearly this list includes some very non-public data and as such raises some red flags, but just challenge the concept for a moment to say, if this social graph was inputted through an algorithm to the database of available property on the market as well as alerts to new property, it would certainly provide a richer set of results than just searching for 3 bedroom homes under $500,000 in inner city suburbs of Wellington.

The Connect conference is in many ways a reaffirmation of the fact that we live in a wired (& more so these days wireless) and mutli-connected world and the issues and challenges faced in the real estate market in NZ are so similar to the issues in Europe, US, Australia and Asia, further evidenced by attendees from all the major developed countries of the world represented at the conference. This was further evidenced when set against the hi tech apps and online tools profiled at the conference, a presenter talked of the abandonment rate of telephone inquiries which divert to voice mail and from research how low the return call rate was. It left a sobering reinforcement of the fact that technology cannot replace the human process, but hopefully can make the smarter agents more effective and efficient and enable them to track that performance more accurately as an individual or business owner.

Connect is a valuable event. It has grown from being a US domestic event to become an international event – even noted by many at this years conference that Australians seems to be “everywhere”. I personally was delighted to see a good number of NZ representatives eagerly absorbing the content. It is a conference I would highly recommend to anyone with a conviction to invest in their career in real estate and who recognises the game-changing role of technology in that future.

Sydney skyline

Great news could be on the horizon, there was a question asked in the closing session as to other locations for hosting Connect. The question was posed by an American, their question was directed at an alternative US location, but the answer from Brad included the inference that they might look at international locations – Beijing and Sydney were mentioned.

To have a Connect in our Asia Pacific region would be enormous and I will share my passion and support to try and get such a conference organized.

1

New appointee directors and independent Chairman for REINZ

Posted on: July 15th, 2010 | Filed in Real Estate Industry, Real Estate Industry News

Rosanne Meo - Briscoe Group AGM - Photo - LIFEThe Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) has announced that it has completed the appointment of the new board which will provide future governance for the industry member organisation. Key to these appointments are two independent directors – Dr Richard Janes and Rosanne Meo, who will take on the role of Chairman.

Additionally the 9 person board will comprise two industry representatives with extensive management experience, these being Bryan Thomson (Head of Australasian operation for Harcourts) and David Rankin (Chair of the Real Estate Network in Christchurch. The 5 other directors are all regionally elected representatives Jean Smith, Auckland; Philip Searle, Gisborne; Euon Murrell, Wellington; Paul Hedwig, Nelson; Liz Nidd, Dunedin.

The appointment of these directors completes the final stage of transition of the organisation from being a mandatory legislated body under the former 1976 Real Estate Agents Act to a new independent member representative organisation freed from the legislative requirements with the passing of the 2008 Real Estate Agents Act.

The governance model of REINZ formerly operated through a Council will elected representatives and a National President elected biannually from within the Council. This new structure which operates under a new constitution. With this new board comprising as it does independent directors and industry experts, it will certainly be keen to present the organisation to the industry as a valuable resource to help promote and advocate for the benefit of the industry and its members.

Full disclosure: Realestate.co.nz Ltd of which Unconditional is a part, is 50% owned by REINZ.

Page 1 of 712345...Last »