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The heat is off Auckland as Kiwis take a breath and park the city house hunt

The heat is off Auckland as Kiwis take a breath and park the city house hunt

Download the New Zealand Property Report in full here. The New Zealand housing market has settled into a typical pre-Christmas pattern, as Kiwis turn their focus to the upcoming holiday period. Real-time market statistics from realestate.co.nz for the past three months (ending 30 November) show a comparative cooling in demand across the main centres –...

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Posted on: December 1st, 2016
12

NZ Property Report – March 2010

Posted on: April 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

NZ Property Report - Realestate.co.nzThe property market is very definitely in the defined state of a buyer’s market as witnessed by the key metrics of supply; being the available stock of unsold houses on the market and the number of new listings hitting the market.

March_2010_report_cover_pageIn the first 3 months of 2010 a total of just under 40,000 new listings have been added to the market. The total stock of residential property for sale at the end of 2009 was 49,149. That has grown to 55,623 – an extra 6,500 properties on the market. The current average monthly sales total is just 4,551 over the past 3 months.

Closer analysis of the data shows that seasonally adjusted, the total of new listings in March was down 3.3% at 12,595. Compared to March last year which saw a seasonally adjusted total of 10,014, the latest monthly data clearly shows the extent of the new flood of listings searching for buyers.

Breaking the total down by region shows a more significant split between provincial and metropolitan NZ. The major centers of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury show a lower overall inventory level of unsold homes at 40 weeks as compared to 70 weeks for provincial NZ. Equally when looking at the new listings coming onto the market in March the total of new listings in provincial areas of the country actually rose in March up from 6,450 in February to 6,719. This level is the highest number of new listings for two years. The major metropolitan regions saw a 11% decline of new listings on a month-on-month basis with 7,689 new listings.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report March 2010 Realestate.co.nz Asking priceProperty owners placing their homes on the market are clearly signaling the belief that property prices are rising. The first two months of this year when activity of new listings have reached highs, have been accompanies by month on month price expectation rises. The truncated mean asking price in March was $422,648 which is 4.2% up on March last year.

New Listings

NZ Property Report March 2010 Realestate.co.nz New listingsThe number of new listings coming onto the market in March; whilst down slightly on the February total, was still up 26% on the prior year. A year ago the scale of the inventory of unsold houses had begun to impact the confidence of new listings coming onto the market – indicating confidence by sellers to be able to find buyers and move onto to buy another property.

Inventory

NZ Property Report March 2010 Realestate.co.nz Inventory of unsold housesThe level of unsold houses on the market at the end of February totaled 55,623.This represented the equivalent of 53.0 weeks.

The inventory of unsold homes has been rising steadily over the past 10 months, slowly at first then as the rate of sales has slowed the inventory levels have accelerated over the past 3 months going from 34 weeks on December to over 53 weeks in March.

At this time last year the inventory levels were on the way down having peaked at 56.9 weeks in February.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

NZ Property Report March 2010 Realestate.co.nz Regional asking price expectationThe truncated mean asking price for all new listings coming onto the market in March rose again to $422,648, up 4.2% on February and representing a 0.9% increase on March 2009.

A key observation of the March data is that the variances in asking price across the regions of the country are considerably smaller than has been seen during the past year indicating less volatility. Within the total of 19 regions, 13 are recording an increase in March as compared to the latest 3 month average. Only one region came close to a double digit asking price change which was Central Otago / Lakes district which was down 9.8%, this was accompanying a rise in new listings with 350 in March up from 313 in February.

An interesting observation from the data is the Waikato region, which has consistently had an asking pricing in a very close range from $342,000 to $359,000 for over 12 months.

Regional Summary – New listings

NZ Property Report March 2010 Realestate.co.nz Regional new listingsThe chart depicting the scale of new listing coming on the market in March across the country paints a clear picture of a strong buyers market with only one region showing a year-on-year decline in new listings – that being the Coromandel, down 39%.

The balance of the 19 regions all showed increase in new listings – 16 of them reporting year-on-year growth of more than 20% with the Gisborne showing the highest growth at 61% with Central North Island reporting 50% growth in new listings.

The total number of new listings added in the Gisborne region in the month at 153 was the largest recorded over the past 3 years. Equally the Bay of Plenty region saw 1,104 new listings up 20% on February and 33% up on March last year, the highest level of new listings in that region in the past 2 years.

Regional Summary – Inventory of unsold houses

NZ Property Report Realestate.co.nz March 2010 Inventory of unsold houses by region of NZAnother leap in the inventory of unsold houses took the total to a level of 53.0 weeks of equivalent sales. This is now the second highest level of inventory seen over the past 3 years. The prior high of 56.9 weeks was in February last year – a time of major global economic fragility as consumer and business confidence tumbled.

The clear impact of this level of inventory is the clear image as portrayed by the adjacent chart which depicts a blanket state of a buyer’s market. The legend for this chart uses the measure of current inventory to long term (3 year) averages to represent a buyers or a sellers market.

Out of the 19 regions, 6 reported the highest level of inventory spanning back over the past 3 years. They were Manawatu / Wanganui, Northland, Otago, Southland, Taranaki and Waikato.

Lifestyle Property

NZ Property Report March 2010 Realestate.co.nz Lifestyle property new listings A total of 1,106 new listings of lifestyle properties came onto the market in March. This represented an increase of 17% over March 2009, however reflective of the total residential sector the month saw a small fall from the February total of 1,133.

At $592,438 the truncated mean asking price was down 2% on February and in line with the latest 3 month average.

Across the regions, Canterbury saw a large number of newly listed lifestyle properties with 144 as compared to 134 last month and 113 in March last year. The mean asking price in the region was up 12% in the year to $581,236.

Apartments

NZ Property Report March 2010 Realestate.co.nz Apartment listingsThe number of new apartments listed fell significantly in March with 613 in total, down from 747 in February. This does represent a year on year increase of 31%. In Auckland the number of new apartments did not show such a significant fall in the month down from 368 in February to 362 in March.

The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings at $390,211 was up 4.4% on the latest 3 month average, however 11% down on prior year.

A large number of new apartment listings in the Wellington region in February (217) was not repeated in March with a more normal level of 93 new apartments listed.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.5MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for April 2010 will be published on this website on Saturday 1st May at 10am.

4

NZ Property Report – February 2010

Posted on: March 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

NZ Property Report - Realestate.co.nzThe industry has long been expecting a surge in new listings and February answered that call. However the timing is not ideal as these listings are hitting the market right at the time that sales volumes have gone soft. The last month of 2009 and the first month of 2010 surprised the market with particularly weak sales with both months showing long term lows of 4,957 and 3,666 respectively.

Click here to download the full report (1.4MB pdf)The month of February is traditionally a very strong month for new listings. Two years ago a record level of 18,700 listings came onto the market – at that time sales were beginning to weaken heading into the recession. Also at that time the inventory of unsold houses was beginning to rise from 34 weeks in Feb ’08 rising to a peak of 57 weeks a year later.

The rise in asking price to $419,015 puts price expectations back on an increasing trend and does reflect the traditional increase seen in February. Clearly sellers and their agents are confident that the pricing will find a willing buyer market at these levels; somewhat of a challenge given recent weakness in the stratified median sales prices as reported by the Real Estate Institute.

The key focus for the market is the inventory of unsold houses which at close to 12 months means that there is ample opportunity for buyers to evaluate the property that best suits their needs in what is clearly a buyer’s market.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - asking price expectationThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in February rose quite significantly from $405,040 to $419,015.

This price represented a 1.6% increase in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Nov/Dec/Jan).

The asking price of new listings in February last year was $413,337 representing a 1.4% year on year increase.

New Listings

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - level of new lisitingsThe number of new listings coming onto the market in February rose sharply in what is traditionally a peak listings’ month. The volume represented a 47% increase on prior month and 24% year on year growth. It is also the highest single month for nearly 2 years.

Inventory

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - Inventory of listings on the marketThe level of unsold houses on the market at the end of February totaled 54,381.This represented the equivalent of 48.2 weeks.

This very steep rise in inventory of unsold houses is the result of the combined effects of a surge in new listings and sluggish monthly sales over the past quarter. Whilst the current level is 15% below the level at the same time last year unless sales volumes pick up or listings dry up then inventory could continue to rise in the coming months – clearly signaling a buyer’s market.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - Regional asking price expectation of vendorsWhilst the national asking price expectation showed a rise in truncated mean from $405,040 to $419,015 the regional variances were quite significant with 11 regions showing increases set against the recent 3 month average and 8 regions showing falls.

The main metro areas showed only marginal variances of around 3% or less with Wellington just 1.1% down. In provincial areas significant falls were seen on Gisborne, Marlborough and the Central Otago / lakes region. In the latter region the asking price expectation of %28,137 was the second lowest in the past 12 months.

Significant rises were seen in Southland, Taranaki, Otago and the Hawkes Bay. For the Taranaki region the asking price of $335,423 is an all time high.

Regional Summary – New listings

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - regional levels of new listingsThe surge of listings nationally amounting to a 47% month on month growth was seen most significantly in a key number of regions.

Most significant was Wellington which has for so long been running on a shortage of new listings – the regions saw a surge with over 2,000 listings, a level not seen over the last few years. Matching that level of new listings was Canterbury with a 34% year on year rise.

Regions seeing a fall in year on year listings were Coromandel, Central Otago / Lakes and Northland.

Regional Summary – Inventory of unsold houses

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - regional summary of inventory of unsold housesThe steep rise in inventory on a national basis in February was reflected across the majority of the 19 regions which in the main are clearly indicating a buyer’s market.

The only three regions which are seeing a level of inventory of unsold houses below long term averages were Auckland which now has 30 weeks of stock, The Hawkes Bay with 32 and Wellington with just 18 weeks. All of these regions inventory levels are over 30% down on the same period last year

The areas of the country where inventory is significantly above long term averages were Northland (160 weeks), Central North Island (115 weeks), Taranaki (29 weeks) and Marlborough (74 weeks).

Lifestyle Property

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - Lifestyle property new listingsA healthy 30% increase in listings in February with 1,113 new lifestyle properties come onto the market with an asking price expectation of $601,220 which is 7.6% up on prior year and 1.2% up on the 3 month average

Regions of the country seeing significant increases in new listings of over double as compared to prior year were the Hawkes Bay, Wellington and Marlborough. Only Northland, Gisborne and the Coromandel saw year on year declines in new listings.

Apartments

NZ Property Report Feb 2010 - listings of apartmentsThe apartment market had a very strong month with 747 new listings – the highest overall level of new listings for 2 years. Very strong listings came through in the Bay of Plenty and Wellington both showing year on year growth of over 100%.

The asking price expectation of apartments for February was $374,503 which was almost identical to a year earlier and just 1% up on the prior 3 months. The asking price in Auckland was $335,861 which was almost identical to a year earlier, but 2.6% down the prior 3 months.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for March 2010 will be published on this website on Thursday 1st April at 10am.

8

NZ Property Report – January 2010

Posted on: February 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe NZ property market appears to continue to be in somewhat of a state of dormancy as judged from the new listings coming onto the market. This is also a reflection of somewhat subdued sales which whilst showing year-on-year growth are still lagging historical averages. Total sales for 2009 were just 69,629 up from the 2008 level of 56,128 but far from the mid 2000’s levels of 100,000.

Cover pageJanuary saw just 10,272 new listings coming onto the market; the first time in 4 years that the January figure has been lower than December. The start of the new year traditionally shows a strong lift in listings which seek to benefit from summer activity in the market. The 2010 year started with a 2% decline in new listings. However despite this signal of lower listings the trend is not as might have been expected towards a strong sellers market. The level of inventory of unsold homes on the market rose significantly in January to 40 weeks from the 34 weeks in December, this measure reflects the rate of sales which is running at a slower rate and therefore failing to clear inventory.

Supporting this position of a sluggish property market is the measure of asking price expectations which fell for the second month in a row from $412,319 in December to $405,040 in January, this is a sign of a market where sellers looking to transact in what is a quiet market are setting price expectation at realistic levels thereby ensuring that their property stands out in what is becoming a somewhat crowded market.

Asking Price

Pricing data Jan 10.xlsThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in January fell by 1.8% from November to $405.040.

This price represented a 1.8% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Oct/Nov/Dec).

The asking price of new listings in January last year was $391,780 representing a 3.4% year on year increase.

New Listings

New listings total Jan 10The number of new listings coming onto the market in January was just less than the total for December, despite the traditional strength of January as the summer season kicks into gear, this year a total of 10,272 as compared t0 10,349 in December.

Comparing January 2010 to January 2009 requires a note of caution as at that time the property market was suffering from the economic recession.

Inventory

Inventory cht Jan 10The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of January totaled 52,817.This represented the equivalent of 40.1 weeks – this represents over 9 months worth of stock.

This rise in inventory whilst new listings appear to be so scarce brings into clear focus the sluggish level of sales over the final quarter of 2009.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

Asking price expectations map Jan 10The overall trend of property price expectations as established by the listing price of properties coming onto the market in January was of falling prices. The national truncated mean asking price fell 1.8% from the month of December and 1.8% as compared to the recent 3 month average.

Of the 19 regions only 2 saw asking price rise – Wairarapa and Central Otago Lakes. The majority of the remainder posted falls of less than 5%, however Central North Island, West Coast and Taranaki all posted falls of more than 5%. Auckland fell 2.5% in the month contributing to a 5% slide since the November level of $543,522.

Regional Summary – New listings

New listings map Jan 10The level of new listings in January was a modest 3% over the same month last year. This is significant as last year the scale of the economic recession was weighing very heavily on the property market.

Across the country the picture was varied with the main 3 centers posting year on year growth in listings, with Wellington showing a 12% increase.

Only two regions saw new listing lower than a year ago – Coromandel down 29% and Manawatu / Wanganui down 12%.

Significant increases over last year were seen in 7 regions – all posting 20% or more increase with the Hawkes Bay leading with a 58% increase.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Inventory map Jan 10The steep rise in inventory on a national basis in January was reflected across the majority of the 19 regions which in the main are clearly indicating a buyer’s market.

The only three regions which are seeing a level of inventory of unsold houses below long term averages were Auckland which now has 30 weeks of stock, The Hawkes Bay with 32 and Wellington with just 18 weeks. All of these regions inventory levels are over 30% down on the same period last year.

The areas of the country where inventory is significantly above long term averages were Northland (160 weeks), Central North Island (115 weeks), Taranaki (29 weeks) and Marlborough (74 weeks).

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle listingscht Jan 10Lifestyle listings in January slumped from 995 in December to 869. Whilst this total represented a 12% increase as compared to January 2009, based on longer term historical data the expectation would have been to see a rise from December. The truncated mean asking price for lifestyle properties in January was $558,947 representing a fall of 9% as compared to December. Set against January 2009 the asking price was up 5%, but down 6% as against the recent 3month average.

The majority of regions showed declines in new listings with the exception of Coromandel, Canterbury and the West Coast all of which showed year on year increases of over 50%.

Apartments

Apartment listings cht Jan10As with the total and other sectors, the apartment market failed to spark into life in the new year. A total of 432 apartments were listed as compared to480 in December and 352 last January. This 10% month on month decline was largely a function of the rest of NZ as Auckland witnessed a 5% increase in listings with 251 being added to the market.

The truncated mean asking price fell 1% from the prior 3 month average. At $367,289 the asking price of January was 10% below the price a year ago and a fall of 3% as compared to December. These falls were reflected in the same scale within the Auckland market.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for February 2010 will be published on this website on Monday 1st March at 10am.

2

NZ Property Report – December 2009

Posted on: January 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report, Other interesting reads:

blue pen and small houseDecember is traditionally a quieter month for new listings coming onto the market with a noticeable decline in activity after the middle of the month as property searching takes a back seat to Christmas focus. This behaviour markedly changes in the first week of January when searching starts again in earnest with the busiest time of year for online property search.

NZ Property Report - 1st Jan 2010 Realestate.co.nz cover imageThe calendar year 2009 saw the property market close with a continued subdued sentiment. The level of new listings for the year was down 17% on 2008 and 24% down on the 2007 year. This considerably lower number of listings has been matched by a slower year for sales. The level of property sales through the year remained subdued with the 12 month moving average to November being just under 69,000,whilst up on the year prior figure of 57,000; the long term average 12 months sales would be closer to 98,000.

The level of inventory fell in December to 34.3 weeks. The fall however is unlikely to reflect a tightening in the market at this stage as a possible indicator of an emerging sellers market, rather this statistic is more a reflection of the lower seasonal listings coming onto the market matched to the strong sales months preceding Christmas.

The key movement in what was a steady month for new listings was the easing of asking price expectation. The price fell back from what had been a noticeable spike 3 months ago when the asking price jumped by just over $20,000 in a month back in September leading into the Spring selling period.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report Dec 09 Asking price - Realestate.co.nzThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in December fell by 1.7% from November to $412,319.

This price represented a 1.7% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Sep/Oct/ Nov).

The asking price of new listings in November last year was $401,631 representing a 2.7% year on year increase.

New Listings

NZ Property Report Dec 09 New listings - Realestate.co.nzThe number of new listings coming onto the market fell in December to 10,349, from the November total of 13,857.

The total of 2009 saw 135,416 new listings come onto the market. The calendar year 2008 saw 163,488, with 2007 with 177,529 clearly showing the quieter state of the property market.

Inventory

NZ Property Report Dec 20009 Inventory - Realestate.co.nzThe overall level of available inventory as measured by equivalent weeks of sales slipped slightly in December from 36.0 in November to 34.3.

This fall is a common seasonal factor as December sees fewer new listings, whilst sales continue strongly for the first half of the month. A similar fall in inventory levels has been seen in each of the last 2 years of records.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

NZ Property Report December 2009 Regional map of asking price of property listings - Realestate.co.nzWhilst the national asking price expectation of vendors eased in December the total number of regions showing a fall represented only 7 of the 19 regions. The major influence of the 3 main centers however affected the overall picture with both Wellington and Canterbury down 2.6% and 2.5% respectively as compared to the recent 3 month average.

The Auckland market showed an easing of 1% down to $530,923 – this is still 3% below the peak of the property market in asking price terms back in October 2007 when the asking price was $547,163.

In provincial areas asking prices showed some significant increases with 6 regions having asking price increases over 5% as compared to 3 month averages with both the West Coast and Central North Island recording double digit increases.

Regional Summary – New listings

NZ Property Report Dec 2009 Regional summary of new listings - Realestate.co.nzNew listings were down in December as a function of seasonal factors. There were only 2 regions reporting listings lower than a year ago however. This overwhelming trend to year on year growth in listings across the country has more to do with the state of the market a year ago when the full economic impact was being felt in the property market with the fear of falling prices were negatively effecting buyer sentiment.

The majority of the increases in new listings are being seen outside of the main centers with Wellington and Canterbury showing very modest increases in listings and Auckland showing just 6% increase with 2,730 new listings.

Regional Summary – Inventory

NZ Property Report Dec 2009 Regional map of inventory levels - Realestate.co.nzGiven the seasonal trend to reduced inventory across the country in December the overall market appears fairly balanced with 7 regions tipping towards a buyer’s market and 7 tipping towards a seller’s market.

The main 3 metropolitan areas continue to point to a stronger position for sellers with Auckland at 26 weeks inventory as compared to a 12 month avg. of 35m, Wellington at 16 vs. 12 month avg. of 21 and Canterbury at 26 vs. 12 month avg. of 31. Other notable areas shifting to a more sellers market is the Coromandel and area that has over the past year been a classic buyer’s market with inventory peaking at 284 weeks now down to a level of 146 well below long term average.

On the buyer’s market side Marlbourgh region has been seen steady increasing inventory levels now at 69 weeks compared to 12 month avg. of 52 weeks, similarly the Central North Island including Taupo sitting at 88 weeks up from 59 weeks 3 months ago.

Lifestyle Property

NZ Property Report Dec 2009 Lifestyle property - new listings - Realestate.co.nzLifestyle listings in December were relatively strong based on seasonal expectation. A total of 995 new listings came onto the market with an asking price expectation of $614,951. The volume of listings was up 19% on December last year and the asking price was up1.9% on the recent 3 month average.

There were significant increases in new listings added in the Central North Island, Bay of Plenty, Northland, Wellington region; as well as Central Otago Lakes and Marlborough. Set against this were significantly lower new listings in Manawatu / Wanganui and Taranaki regions.

Apartments

NZ Property Report Dec 2009 New apartment listings - Realestate.co.nz

The apartment market slowed in December with just 480 new listings coming onto the market representing a year on year growth of 7%, however a 25% fall from November. In the calendar year 2009 6,416 new apartment listings came onto the market as compared to 6,916 in 2008 and a staggering 8,470 in 2007 indicating that the apartment market remains subdued.

The asking price expectation for the new listings in December was $379,567 – this represents a 2% decline as compared to the 3 month average.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for January 2010 will be published on this website on Monday 1st February at 10am.

0

NZ Property Report – November 2009

Posted on: December 1st, 2009 | Posted in NZ Property Report

Click here to download pdf version of the full report (1.7MB)November tends to herald the last month for listing property prior to the Christmas break and this year shows the traditional seasonal rise in listings. However the steady growth in listings seen over the past 3 months have begun to outpace the rate of sales of property across the country leading to a further growth in inventory levels in November – taking the equivalent of stock on the market to 36 weeks.

That is to say, based on the current rate of sale, it would take 36 weeks (8.3 months) to clear all the stock. The lowest point of this property cycle was reached in June when inventory reached a low of 31.5 weeks (7.3 months) – since then it has grown for 5 successive months.

The current rate of sales of property from REINZ statistics shows a 12 month total (Nov 08 – Oct 09) of 67,197, this is up 10% on the prior 12 month period but down 31% when compared to the 12 months to October 2007.

This growth of inventory is not spread evenly across the country with the major centers seeing inventory falls whereas provincial NZ is where the significant inventory rises are being seen. The biggest rises are being seen in the Central North Island, Northland, Marlborough, Gisborne and Southland.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report - Nov 2009 Asking price realestate.co.nzThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in November grew slightly to $419,586.

This price represented a 1.9% rise in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Aug/Sep/Oct).

The asking price of new listings in November last year was $404,913 representing a 3.6% year on year increase.

New Listings

NZ Property Report Nov 2009 Total new listings Realestate.co.nzThe number of new listings coming onto the market rose slightly to 13,857, from the October total of 13,550.

Despite the uplift in listings during November the level of new listings over the past 12 months continues to show a 11% fall with 147,813 new listings in the recent 12 months as compared to 165,690 in the prior 12 months spanning 2007/8.

Inventory

NZ Property Report - Nov 2009 Inventory levels Realestate.co.nzThe overall level of available inventory as measured by equivalent weeks of sales grew again in November – the 5th consecutive month of rise from 31.5 weeks in June to the current level of 36.0 weeks.

Whilst inventory tends to rise approaching Christmas the levels this year are up on the 33.9 weeks in 2007 but down on the extreme peak of 52.6 weeks in November last year – a time when property sales stagnated.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

NZ Property Report - Nov 2009 Regional asking price expectation Realestate.co.nzThe national mean asking price showed little movement in November from October as the stability of the market saw a level of vendor expectation being met by buyer demand. Overall there were 13 of the 19 regions showing increases with Gisborne registering the largest increase and Central North Island the biggest fall – both regions affected by small base of data.

The price rise in Auckland of 4.1% is a direct result of the tightness of the market with inventory levels remaining tight as the flow of new listings seems to be being met by a steady demand. The same inventory tightness in the other major centers of Wellington and Canterbury does not seem to be directly impacting asking price at this stage.

Regional Summary – listings

NZ Property Report - Nov 2009 New listing by region Realestate.co.nzThe pendulum has swing in the direction of a buyer’s market as the inventory of property on the market is being bolstered by rises in new listings which is meeting a steady, yet uninspiring sales level. Of the 19 regions round the country 10 are seeing degrees of buyers markets with positive year-on-year increases in listings.

The regions of Central North Island, Hawkes Bay, Taranaki and Nelson all saw rises of more than 20%. Only one region – the Wairarapa showed a significant fall of 59% as compared to November last year.

Wellington continues to see a low level of new listings, just 1,114 in November down 17% compared to last year.

Regional Summary – inventory

NZ Property Report - Nov 2009 Regional levels of inventory Realestate.co.nzThe regional make up of the market from an inventory perspective points to a growing buyers market with 11 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels as measured in weeks of equivalent sales running significantly above long term averages.

The only conspicuous regions reversing this trend are the 3 metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury all of which are showing inventory levels well below long term averages and well below the national average.

These major metropolitan regions are showing characteristics more akin to seller’s market and has prompted some to speculate an emerging property bubble. The breadth of data by reach region clearly refutes this assertion.

Lifestyle Property

NZ Property Report - Nov 2009 New listings of lifestyle properties Realestate.co.nzLifestyle listing numbers remain constant over the past 3 months with 1,191 added in November. This represented an 8.1% increase on prior year. Over the past 12 months 11,561 new lifestyle listing have come onto the market a 16% lower amount than in the prior year 12 month period. Significantly lower listing have been seen in Marlborough and the West Coast over the past year both close to 50% down whilst Nelson and Bay of Plenty have seen growth – albeit less than 10%.

The truncated mean asking price for November was $608,616 a 2% increase on November last year and 4% up on the prior 3 month average.

Apartments

NZ Property Report - Nov 2009 New listings of apartments Realestate.co.nzNovember saw 643 new apartments listings come onto the market, up a significant 27% on November last year, however well down on the peak of 2007 when 983 new listing were added in November. Over the past 12 months a total of 6,385 new apartment listings have come onto the market – down 8.5% on the prior 12 month period.

The Auckland market representing in November 59% of all new listings shows a small increase in listings on a 12 month rolling basis with 3,970 listings in the 12 month period. The truncated mean asking price nationally was $364,384 which was 6% down on the 3 month average – Auckland saw listing asking price down 8% at $323,307.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.8MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for December 2009 will be published on this blog on Friday 1st January at 10am.

6

NZ Property Report – October 2009

Posted on: November 1st, 2009 | Posted in NZ Property Report

Click here to download the full report (1.2MB pdf)The month of October tends to be one of the largest months for new listings. In October 2007 16,751 new listings came onto the market and a year ago as the market was reeling under the economic gloom 14,462 new listings came onto the market. These comparable figures give a perspective to the October 09 of 13,550 – somewhat subdued seems to summarise this market, a sentiment that has been in place for quite a few months with shortages of listings in some regions.

The impact of subdued levels of new listings matched to recent sales which whilst significantly up on prior year still are well below long term averages means inventory levels are not building with the majority of regions edging into a sellers market.

For those sellers venturing to bring their properties onto the market the expectation of asking price has seen virtually no movement from last month which did experience a significant rise.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz Asking price expectationThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in October remained stable.

The truncated mean price for the 13,550 listings added in the month was $418,759. This represents a 3.5% rise in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Jul/Aug/Sep).

The asking price of new listings in October last year was $406,271 representing a 3.0% year on year increase.

New Listings

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz - new listingsThe number of new listings coming onto the market rose to 13,550, from the September total of 12,674.

Despite the uplift in listings during October the level of new listings over the past 12 months continues to show a 21% fall with 133,956 new listings in the recent 12 months as compared to 170,428 in the prior 12 months spanning 2007/8.

Inventory

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz - inventoryThe overall level of available inventory as measured by equivalent weeks of sales grew slightly again in October – the 4th consecutive month of rise from 25.4 weeks in July to the current level of 26.2 weeks.

The year on year inventory decline though better reflects the change in the market over the past 12 months. A year ago the equivalent inventory still exceeded 46 weeks – equating to over 10 months of inventory.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz - Regional asking price expectationWith a national asking price rise of 3.5% as compared to the prior 3 month average, the regional variances are quite significant. Of the 19 regions 7 showed a price decline, the largest of which was Gisborne, the remainder were significantly smaller falls.

The dominant rise and the leverage factor for the rise nationally is the 5.3% increase in Auckland. This rise comes on the back of a 5.9% increase in September. Auckland now with a truncated mean asking price of $535,313 is only slightly behind the peak of asking price of $547,163 set back in October 2007.

The two other major centers of Wellington and Canterbury both showed increases of around 4%.

Regional Summary – listings

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz - Regional new listingsThe overall perspective of the regions continues to point to a sellers market with only 2 regions showing a significant rise in listings – these being Coromandel and Northland. The Northland and Coromandel region’s increases are more than likely a function of traditional seasonal listings of holiday home properties.

Regions on the increase are also Otago and Taranaki with both seeing over 10% increase as compared to October last year. In the case of Otago the number of listings (581) grew 30% over the prior month.

There were 5 regions (Central North Island, Manawatu, Wairarapa, Marlborough and Southland) that saw new listing at levels significantly down on last year.

Regional Summary – inventory

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz - Regional inventoryThe balance of the market between sellers and buyers is represented in the attached chart with the trend to blue highlighting a relative shortage of listings with the trend to green favouring buyers with a surplus of listings. The assessment is made in judging the current month with the 2 year average inventory level.

The main 3 centers of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury (Christchurch) continue to experience inventory levels relatively low to long term average, to these can be added the regions of Central North Island and the Hawkes Bay.

At the other end of the market the regions seeing more of a buyers market are Northland, Southland, the West Coast, Wairarapa and Gisborne.

Lifestyle Property

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz - Lifestyle property listingsThe level of new listings of lifestyle properties remained close to the number for September, somewhat less than would have been expected for the time of year. A total of 1,160 new listings came onto the market in October.

Key regions showing increases were Auckland – 297, up 27% on prior year; Bay of Plenty – 120, up 67% on prior year; Hawkes Bay – 49, up 63% on prior year and the Coromandel – 22, up 22% on prior year.

The truncated mean price for the new listings was $603,271 representing a 7% increase on the 3 month average.

Apartments

NZ Property Report October 2009 Realestate.co.nz - Apartment listingsA total of 651 new apartment listings came onto the market in October representing a 10% increase over the prior year. Again Auckland represents two thirds of all these listings with 425 new listings, this represented a 23% increase in the Auckland market as compared to the prior year.

The truncated mean asking price for the new apartment listings in the month was $376,487 representing a return to the levels of the earlier months of the year after a rise last month. As compared to the 3 month average the October price represented a 2% fall.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.1MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for November 2009 will be published on this blog on Tuesday 1st December at 10am.

1

NZ Property Report – September 2009

Posted on: October 1st, 2009 | Posted in NZ Property Report

Click here to download the full report (1.1MB pdf)The anticipated seasonal lift in new listings coming onto the market as measured by the website occurred in September at a level ahead of expectations. The year on year growth of 6% represents the first month since April 2008 when inventory coming onto the market has been ahead of the prior year – such has been the subdued state of the market. Accompanying this increase of new listings has been a rise in the asking price expectations – up 6% on the month of August and up 5% on the prior 3 month average. This spike now takes the asking price expectation back to within 2% of the peak of the market in late 2007. A large component in this rise in listings can be attributable to 3 main north island centers – Auckland, Northland and Bay of Plenty – these accounted for 55% of the overall increase of 2,030 in new listings in the month. Coincidentally they were also areas showing strong rises in asking price expectation. This data supports the view that the property marketing is most active in the major metropolitan areas whereas the provincial parts of the country are yet to witness this pick up.

Asking Price

Asking price expectations for new listings - Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in September took a significant leap. The truncated mean price for the 12,674 listings added in the month was $419,851. This represents a 5.2% increase in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Jun/Jul/Aug). The asking price of new listings in September last year was $398,659.

New Listings

Total new listings - Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzThe number of new listings coming onto the market rose significantly to 12,674, from the August total of 10,644. Despite the uplift in listings during September the level of new listings over the past 12 months shows a 21% fall with 134,873 new listings in the recent 12 months as compared to 172,711 in the prior 12 months spanning 2007/8.

Inventory

Inventory of residential property - Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzWith new listings coming onto the market slightly exceeding sales the inventory level role nationally for the fourth straight month; sitting now at 33.7 weeks stock of unsold properties. The level of inventory though is down 40% from the peak of the market back in February of this year when the level reached 57 weeks.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Regional map of asking price expectation of new listings - Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzIncreases in the asking price expectation of vendors were prevalent across almost all centers of the country, with the exception of Gisborne and Nelson. The biggest single rise was seen in Northland which also showed the largest rise in new listings. The most significant trend seen in the measure of asking price movements as compared to a 3 month average is that most of the activity is seen in these main centers. Auckland witnessed 5.9%, Canterbury 5.5%, Wellington 4.4%, Bay of Plenty 4.3%, Otago (Dunedin) 7.4%, Northland (Whangarei) 20.6% and Central North Island (Taupo) 6.3%

Regional Summary of listings

Regional summary of new listings - Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzOnly one of the 19 regions of the country showed a significant decline in listings when comparing year on year. Gisborne added just 80 new listings representing a 14% decline from September last year. Most significant increase in new listings was seen in Northland where listings almost doubled in a month from 422 in August to 823 in September. It should be remembered that new listing levels of this order were more the norm in 2007 and heading into 2008.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Regional map of inventory levels of property for sale -  Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzWhilst the level of new listings increased inventory across most regions, a number still show below long term average levels of inventory. Wellington continues to see a tight market with 16 weeks of inventory down 41% on the levels of a year ago. At the other extreme, areas such as the West Coast and Gisborne both showed increasing inventory as compared to long term averages tipping them more into a buyer’s market territory. For the vast majority of the 19 regions the perspective is of a balanced market where the recent rise in new listings should match well to any upturn in demand as a function of seasonal lift and the emerging wave of economic optimism

Lifestyle

New lifestyle listings - Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzLifestyle property saw a significant lift in the month of September with 1,157 new listings being added to the website, an increase of 271 from August. The total is the highest since October of last year and represents an 18% increase on the same month last year. A significant portion (nearly a third) of this increase was seen in new listings in the Northland region. An equally large increase was seen in the year on year increases in the Bay of Plenty up 63% and the Central North Island up 53%. Auckland whilst not showing a high year on year increase did see an incremental 67 listings as compared to August. The asking price expectation of these listings was up 8% on August at $599,073 and 6% up on the 3 month moving average.

Apartments

New listings for apartments - Sep 09 Realestate.co.nzThe apartment market showed comparable levels of new listings to August with 603 added in the month. This represented a gain of just 1% over August, but a 12% increase over the same month last year. Auckland as ever represents the largest concentration of apartment listings – 349 new listing in September, down slightly from August but up 14% on the same month last year. The asking price of apartments nationally in September increased by 8% from the prior 3 month period average to a level of $418,376. In Auckland the asking price was $368,319 which represents a 5% increase on the prior 3 month average and a 10% increase on the August figure. The full report can be downloaded here (1.1MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for October 2009 will be published on this blog on Sunday 1st November at 10am.

17

NZ Property Report – August 2009

Posted on: September 1st, 2009 | Posted in NZ Property Report

Click here to dowload the full report (1Mb pdf)The key metrics of the current property market reflect a very stable position – stable asking price, stable level of inventory and stable levels of new listings. Whilst this is a far better position for the market than a year ago there is concern that the slight rise in new listings seen in July matched to a similar level in August may not be sufficient to meet the demand being seen in the market at this time.

Spring is one of the most active periods of the year and with constraint of new listings; the market may not be able to meet this demand without consequential impact on prices. However this scenario is as yet not being witnessed in the asking price expectation which remains steady and still represents a 7% decline from the peak of the market.

This sentiment in the market is reflected in the comments of real estate agents. Mike Elford, President of the Real Estate Institute of NZ (REINZ) commented

The market has certainly recovered well from the lows of mid-2008, and heading into spring could well see some more healthy activity, however as ever the market is reliant on an adequate inventory of listings to meet buyer expectations

Asking Price

NZ Property Report Aug 09 - Asking price Realestate.co.nzThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in August remained stable with barely any change from the prior month.

The truncated mean price for the 10,644 listings added in the month was $397,187. This represents a 0.8% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (May/Jun/Jul).

The asking price of new listings in August last year was almost the identical asking price of $397,053.

New Listings

NZ Property Report Aug 09 - new listings : Realestate.co.nzThe number of new listings coming onto the market fell to 10,644, from the July total of 10,773. This was below the expected level anticipated as a result of Spring seasonal upturn.

As compared to August last year when there was 10,860 new listings added to the market, this past month represents a fall of 2% from a year ago.

The graph provides a view of the continued relatively low level of new listings coming onto the market this year.

Inventory

NZ Property Report Aug 09 - Inventory of properties for sale : Realestate.co.nzThe fairly flat level of new listings matched to steady sales level the available inventory (measured in terms of “the number of weeks to clear all the stock of houses on the market) rose very slightly to 32.6 weeks.

The level of inventory on a national basis is up considerably from the lows of 2007 (24 weeks), but down considerably on the highs of 2008 (50 weeks).

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

NZ Property Report August 2009 - regional asking price : Realestate.co.nzThe asking price expectation of vendors steadied across the regions in the month of August with 10 of the 19 regions showing asking price falls, however only 8 were greater than 1%.

There were 4 regions – Northland, Gisborne, Marlborough and the Central Otago / Lakes district that showed asking price declines of over 5%. The nationally asking price moved only marginally down 0.8% as compared to the prior 3 months.

The main centers of Auckland and Christchurch showed virtually no asking price movement whilst Wellington showed an increase in asking price of 2.6%. There were only 2 regions showing asking price expectation rises of more than 5% – Central North Island and Manawatu / Wanganui.

Regional Summary – listings

NZ Property Report August 2009 - regional new listings : Realestate.co.nzThe level of new listing across the regions reflected the national picture with most variances to August last year of the order of less than 10%.

Of the 19 regions only 8 showed increases in new listings; only one of which – the Waikato showed an increase of 20%.

In contrast 3 regions – Central North Island, Manawatu / Wanganui and Marlborough reported listings decline of over 30%.

Overall the sentiment of the market is stable with a slight leaning to a sellers market especially given the lack of year on year increases of new listings. This is especially relevant when viewing the very depressed state of the property market in August 2008.

Regional Summary – inventory

NZ Property Report August 2009 - regional inventory : Realestate.co.nzAs a consequence of the lack of new listings rises anticipated with the oncoming spring seasonal, the inventory levels continue to hover at low levels. Nationally at 33 weeks down 34% on a year ago.

The chart attempts to estimate the propensity of region to be experiencing a buyers or sellers market based on inventory as compared to historical averages.

In overall terms there is a sense of balance in the market between buyers and sellers with the majority of regions showing levels in line with long term averages. The key centers of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch however still show continued signs of low inventory including Wellington which continues to hover at around just 15 weeks.

The regions of Coromandel and the West Coast continue to show signs of high inventory.

Lifestyle

liNZ Property Report August 2009 - new listings for lifestyle properties : Realestate.co.nzSimilar to the picture for total listings, lifestyle properties added to the site in August fell short of the pickup seen in July. For the month 886 listings were added a 1% increase on August last year.

The truncated mean asking price expectation from vendors of lifestyle properties in August was $553,347 a 3% decline over the preceding 3 month average and a 1% decline in the same month last year.

Regions showing consistent increases in inventory were the Bay of Plenty with 85 new listings, more than double August last year and 15% up on the rolling 3 month average. Equally the Coromandel continues to show increases of 47% up on prior year. Finally Manawatu / Wanganui with 76 new listings was up 27% on prior year. Regions showing consistent falls in new listings were the Hawkes Bay, Taranaki, Otago, Marlborough, Wairarapa and the Central North Island

Apartments

NZ Property Report August 2009 - new listings for apartments : Realestate.co.nzThe apartment market shows steady levels of new listings with 595 added in August representing a 13% increase on the prior year. Again Auckland dominates the apartment market and with 369 apartments listed in the month showed a 19% increase from August last year.

The asking price of apartments nationally in July fell 7% from the prior quarter average to a new level of $368,291. As compared to August last year the current asking price shows a decline of 7%. The asking price of Auckland apartments in the month was $335,792, down 6% on last year.

The full report can be downloaded here (1MB pdf document).
The next NZ Property Report for September 2009 will be published on Thursday 1st October at 10am.

1

NZ Property Report – July 2009

Posted on: August 1st, 2009 | Posted in NZ Property Report

Click to download the NZ Property Report - July 2009 (1Mb pdf)The statistics from this month’s report show clear signs of a more balanced property market – the balance being between buyers and sellers. The rise in new listings whilst unseasonal, could well point to an earlier in interest from vendors in getting property onto the market ready for spring. It is important though to highlight that the absolute levels of new listings remain relatively low when compared to historical data.

In the month a total of 10,773 new listings were added to the market, this compares with 9,561 in June. The comparable months a year ago saw 12,684 new listings in June and 11,200 in July last year. This represents a 13% increase in listings as compared to the prior month and a 4% decline as compared to July last year.

A noticeable rise in apartment listings combined with a lower asking price expectation could have a contributory factor in a slight weakness in the asking price expectation in the overall market which showed a 2% decline in July.

These statistics reflect the sentiment in the market as judged by real estate agents. This sentiment is best expressed by a summary of the market from Mike Elford, President of the Real Estate Institute of NZ (REINZ)

“The key issue affecting the property market over the past few months has been the inventory of new listings. Property owners have been sitting tight and have been reluctant to place their property on the market. More recently however as sales volumes have stabilised and prices have firmed the interest in listing properties in readiness for the spring period has grown which bodes well for the coming months”.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report JUly 2009 - Asking price expectation realestate.co.nzThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in July showed a decline of 1.5% from the prior month.

The truncated mean price for the 10,773 listings added in the month was $396,949. This represents a 1.6% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Apr/May/Jun).

The asking price of new listings in July last year was $402,539 which represents a 1.4% year-on-year fall in asking price expectation.

New Listings

NZ Property Report July 2009 - New listings realestate.co.nzThe number of new listings coming onto the market increased to 10,773, a rise of 1,212 (+13%) from June. This reverses what was a 4 month trend of declines in new listings from the summer peak in February when 12,164 listings were added to the market.

As compared to July last year when there was 11,200 new listings added to the market, this past month represents a fall of just 4%. The graph provides a view of the continued relatively low level of new listings despite the increase in the month.

Inventory

NZ Property Report July 2009 - Inventory of properties for sale realestate.co.nzWith the small rise in new listings matched to steady sales level the available inventory (measured in terms of “the number of weeks to clear all the stock of houses on the market) has remained steady at 32.1 weeks.

As can be seen from the graph this month’s level arrests what has been a steady decline in inventory levels from the peak back in February.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

NZ Property Report JUly 2009 - Regional map of asking price realestate.co.nzAsking price expectation of vendors slipped across the regions in the month of July with 12 of the 19 regions showing asking price falls of greater than 1%. There were 3 regions – Central North Island, Otago Lakes district and the West Coast that showed asking price declines of over 5%. The overall decline nationally was 1.6% measured as compared to the prior 3 months.

The main centers of Auckland and Christchurch showed declines of around 3% whilst Wellington was a more modest 1% decline. The 3 regions showing asking price expectation rises of more than 5% – Gisborne, Marlborough and Southland are relatively small regions and as such can be subject to more volatility in price movements.

Regional Summary – listings

NZ Property Report July 2009 - regional map of new listings realestate.co.nzThe national pick up in listings was reflected across the country in what could best be described as a more stable property market. Out of the 19 regions, 10 showed year on year listings movements of less than 10%.

There were 3 regions which reported significant rises in listings – Central Otago lakes, Central North Island and Marlborough – all reporting rises of over 20% from July last year.

Only one region the Coromandel reported a significant continued decline in new listings with a 35% year on year decline.

All of the 3 major regions showing relatively low levels of inventory saw no appreciable lift in listings year on year – Auckland was down 6%, although up 12% on prior month. Wellington was down 2%, although up 17% on prior month and Canterbury was down 2% and up 8% on prior month.

Regional Summary – inventory

NZ Property Report July 2009 - Regional map of inventory of properties for sale realestate.co.nzWith stronger level of new listings and stable prior quarter sales the inventory levels (measured in terms of “the number of weeks to clear all the stock of houses on the market) stablised in most regions.

The chart attempts to estimate the propensity of region to be experiencing a buyers or sellers market based on inventory as compared to historical averages.

In overall terms there is a sense of balance in the market between buyers and sellers with the majority of regions showing levels in line with long term averages. The key centers of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch however still show continued signs of low inventory including Wellington which continues to hover at around just 15 weeks.

The regions of Coromandel and the West Coast continue to show signs of high inventory.

Lifestyle

NZ Property Report July 2009 - Lifestyle listings realestate.co.nzNew listings for lifestyle properties rose in the month of July from 812 in June to 967 in July (+19%) – the year on year variance showed a 17% increase.

The truncated mean asking price expectation from vendors of lifestyle properties in June was $535,602 an 8% decline over the preceding 3 month average and a 12% decline in the same month last year.

A region showing significant activity over the past month was the Otago Lakes district including Queenstown which saw 71 new listings – more than the total for the last quarter. The asking price expectation was down 45% on the prior 3months at $542,600, potentially more a function of the dearth of new listings in the past quarter, than an indication of the current asking price expectation.

Apartments

NZ Property Report JUly 2009 - Listings of apartments realestate.co.nzThe apartment market shows renewed activity with a total of 733 new listings in July rising 54% from June and representing a 41% increase on July last year. The July total was the highest single month of new apartment listings since February 2008. Auckland which accounts for around two thirds of all apartments reported new listings of apartments totaling 541 in July up 80% on the prior month and a similar 80% increase on prior year.

The asking price of apartments nationally in July fell 9% from the prior quarter average to a new level of $365,431. As compared to July last year the current asking price shows a decline of 15%. In spite of the national fall, the asking price of apartments listed in Auckland showed only a small fall of just 1% as compared to the prior 3 month average.

The full report can be downloaded here (1MB pdf document).
The next NZ Property Report for August 2009 will be published on Tuesday 1st September at 10am.

5

NZ Property Report – June 2009

Posted on: July 1st, 2009 | Posted in NZ Property Report

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz

With 4 consecutive months of declines in new listings, the residential property market has turned a corner. Whilst there is no expectation of a resurgent boom in the market, what is likely to be seen is more of a cautious pace of activity maintained over the winter as buyer demand is challenged by pockets of real shortages of listings.

These perspectives are reflective of the latest analysis of the property market contained in the June 2009 NZ Property Report. The report highlights that with just 9,561 new listings added to the market in June the effective level of inventory has fallen to a level of 31.5 weeks of sales.

Certainly anecdotal comments from around the industry speaks to the challenge of finding sufficient vendors in today’s market to meet the demand of buyers. There is a sense of sellers having reorganised their situation from a finance perspective last year when they may have considered selling and upgrading; whereas now they are preferring to sit out this stage of the market in the hope that pricing may come back.

Certainly the major 3 cities are all showing levels of inventory well below a 6 months threshold and all posting declines in inventory (as measured in terms of weeks of sales) of between 40% and 50% on a year-on-year basis.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz Asking price expectationThe vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties added to the market in the month of June showed a small increase of 0.5% from the prior month.

The truncated mean price for the 9,561 listings added in the month was $403,107. This represents a 0.3% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Mar/Apr/May).

The asking price of new listings in June 2008 was $407,083 which represents a 1% year-on-year fall in price.

New Listings

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz New Listings added to the marketThe number of new listings coming onto the market continues to decline with just 9,561 added in June, This is the 4th consecutive month showing a decline from a post summer peak in February when 12,164 listings were brought to the market.

As compared to June last year when there was 12,648 new listings added to the market, this past month represents a fall of 24%. From the graph the scale of the decline in new listings can be clearly seen.

Inventory

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz Weeks of inventoryAs a direct consequence of the decline in new listings being added to the market, the available inventory measured in terms of the number of weeks of average sales it would take to “clear” the market has fallen to just 31.5 weeks. This level of inventory is the lowest seen for 18 months and as the graph clearly demonstrates the decline is likely to continue.

A year ago in June 2008 the inventory levels were sitting at 50.2 weeks.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz Vendor asking price expectation by regionAsking prices across the regions are showing some significant variances despite the fact that the national picture is best expressed as flat. The national (truncated mean) asking price in June for new listings was $403,107 down by just 0.3% from the average of the preceding 3 months.

Overall the majority of the 19 regions registered modest asking price declines with 5 regions reporting price declines of more than 5%. Against that backdrop there were just 6 regions showing asking price increases with the notable rise in the Queenstown / Otago lakes region of over 12%.

Regional Summary – New listings

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz Regional map of new listings The continuing decline in new listings coming onto the market is very clearly represented by the chart on the right with a dominance of regions demonstrating significant declines in new listings on a year-on-year basis. In fact 16 of the 19 regions recorded declines in new listings of over 20%.

There were 3 regions in June reporting over 50% reduction in new listings coming onto the market as compared to June 2008 – they are the West Coast, Taranaki and Hawkes Bay which showed a staggering 62% decline.

The only region to show a very modest growth in new listings was the Bay of Plenty which had 840 new listings added in June representing a 3% increase year on year.

Regional Summary – Inventory

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz Regional inventory of property on the marketAs with the national trend, all the regions of the country are predominantly experiencing an inventory level considerably lower than a year ago and in some cases at levels not seen for 18 months and in some cases over 2 years.

The main metropolitan areas are seeing the lowest levels of inventory with Wellington at just 15 weeks; a level not seen since July 2007. Auckland equally at 26 weeks representing 6 months of inventory, a level last seen back in the boom times of spring 2007. Lastly Christchurch which at 22 weeks shows a level of inventory last seen in August 2007.

Set against this there are a couple of regions bucking the trend. The West Coast saw an inventory growth of 53% to 117 weeks primarily as a function of slowing sales and a steady flow of new listings. Equally the Coromandel continues to retain the accolade of being the region with the most inventory of property on the market for sale with the equivalent of 199 weeks as at the end of June.

Lifestyle Properties

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz Lifestyle property listingsNew listings for lifestyle properties tracked in line with overall residential property in June falling a massive 47% to just 812 listings. The month of June 2008 as can be seen from the chart below was an extreme month with 1,523 new listings.

The asking truncated mean price expectation from vendors of lifestyle properties in June was $598,461 a 3% increase over the preceding 3 month average and 7.5% up on June 2008. Interestingly the Auckland region which accounts for 22% of all the new listings in the month saw an asking price of $957,045 a 9% increase on the preceding 3 month period.

Apartments

NZ Property Report - June 2009 Realestate.co.nz Apartment listingsThe apartment market was the only category to show a trend against the overall market with an unseasonal increase in listings. In June 475 new listings came onto the market, up from 473 in May, although 13% down on June 2008. As ever close to 2/3rds of the new listings for the month were in Auckland which has seen a greater level of new listings over the past 2 months as compared to the same period last year.

The asking price of apartments in June rose significantly from the May figure of $396,363 to $431,938. The year on year price movement shows a 2% decline whilst the variance to the recent 3 month average was up 7%.

The full report can be downloaded here (1MB pdf document).

The next NZ Property Report for July 2009 will be published on Saturday 1st August at 10am.

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