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The heat is off Auckland as Kiwis take a breath and park the city house hunt

The heat is off Auckland as Kiwis take a breath and park the city house hunt

Download the New Zealand Property Report in full here. The New Zealand housing market has settled into a typical pre-Christmas pattern, as Kiwis turn their focus to the upcoming holiday period. Real-time market statistics from realestate.co.nz for the past three months (ending 30 November) show a comparative cooling in demand across the main centres –...

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Posted on: December 1st, 2016
4

NZ Property Report – December 2010

Posted on: January 1st, 2011 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe December 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of December. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The December 2010 report shows a record low level of new listings coming onto the market. This was matched with a slight drop in asking price expectation. The constant factor in the market is the scale of the inventory of unsold houses which in absolute number began to decline this month as somewhat stronger sales began to clear some of the inventory. When judged against the rate of sale of property, which continues to be weak, the inventory in number of weeks of sales continues to sit well above long term average, currently at 50 weeks.

Realestate_DownloadNowA full print version of the NZ Property Report – December 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.3MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – December 2010

NZ_Property_Report_cover_-_Dec_2010December traditionally is the quietest month of the year for listing of new properties for sale. The run up to Christmas tends to curtail the listing period to a part-month rather than a full-month with the consequential lower listing count. On a seasonally adjusted basis December this year shows no percentage change as compared to November, indicating the seasonal trend was expected, however the absolute level of listings is significant at this new low level.

The 2010 year has seen a consistent lower level of listings as the sales of properties has slowed through the year. In the full year 138,789 new listings were added to the market which began the year with 52,817 listings (at the time equivalent to 37 weeks of sales). The year ended with 53,077 barely a discernible difference in absolute number of properties on the market yet with a lower rate of sale the inventory of unsold houses now amounts to 50 weeks.

The recent sales report for from REINZ for November of 5,138 properties sold, did show a significant increase of 28% on a seasonally adjusted basis indicating that the market was showing some signs of life as the stability of interest rates and economic indicators moved into more positive territory.

The indicator of asking price expectation has shown a repetition of 2009 with a couple of peaks; currently returning down to a midpoint reflecting the fact that in the past 3 years vendors expectations of price increases have as yet not found a firm footing.

Asking Price

Truncated_mean_asking_price_of_new_listings_Dec_2010The truncated mean asking price for all new listings coming onto the market in December fell very slightly from $417,660 to $415,750. On a seasonally adjusted basis the asking price actually rose by 1.3%. Asking prices seem to be showing volatility especially with such low levels of listings coming onto the market.

The current asking price continues to drift down below the peak of Oct 2007, currently off 3.1%.

New Listings

Chart_of_new_listings_of_New_Property_NZ_Dec_2010The traditional seasonal fall in December was as expected, but when coming off a slower level of preceding months the actual level of 8,924 hit a record low. No single month since Jan 2007 has seen a total of less than 9,000 per month.

On a moving annual basis the past 12 months have seen 138,789 new listings compared to 135,416 in the prior year an increase of just 2.5%.

Inventory

Inventory_chart_Dec_2010The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of December fell to 53,077 from 54,365 in November. This represented the equivalent of 50.1 weeks of equivalent sales, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory of unsold houses, whilst dipping slightly as a consequence of a strong November sales continues to sit well above the long term average of 40 weeks of equivalent sales, this still sees the market showing a “buyers-market” inclination.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Regional_map_of_new_property_asking_price_NZ_Dec_2010Whilst the national asking price expectation remained steady with just a small fall from prior month, the regional analysis shows some significant variances.

Amongst the 19 regions almost half showed a rise whilst the remained showed a fall. Strong increases in asking prices were seen in the North Island with Auckland showing a significant 5.2% increase as compared to recent 3 month average. The Hawkes Bay and Central North Island also showed strong increases, although in the latter region the volume of new listings was low.

Price movements in asking prices across the South Island were less significant with the Nelson / Marlborough region showing increases of over 5%.

Regional Summary – Listings

Regional_map_of_new_property_listings_NZ_Dec_2010With the record low level of new listings in the month the sentiment of the market based on new properties fresh to the market would seem to show an inclination to a seller’s market. This however takes no account of existing inventory of unsold houses on the market

In spite of the overall fall in new listings across the country, both the Coromandel and the Wairarapa both saw rises in new listings as compared to December last year.

There were 5 regions of the 19 across the country that saw year on year falls of more than a third – Northland, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Marlborough and Central North Island. With the exception of the latter region all of the others still have a relatively high inventory of unsold houses on the market.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Regional_map_of_inventory_of_unsold_houses_price_NZ_Dec_2010Despite the record low level of new listings and the relatively strong sales of properties in November the overall level of inventory of unsold houses on the market is still significantly above the long terms average (50 weeks as compared to 40 weeks).

The Auckland region now sitting with 36 weeks of unsold houses as compared to a long term average of 34 weeks is more finely balanced and with a 25% seasonally adjusted increase in property sales in November is certainly a more active market than other areas of the country.

Also of note is the Canterbury region which whilst suffering a significant initial impact of the September earthquake reported a 38% seasonally adjusted increase in sales in November – such levels seeing a reduction in available inventory edging the region towards a more balanced market.

Lifestyle

Chart_of_new_listings_of_Lifestyle_property_NZ_Dec_2010Lifestyle property listings In December totaled 927 – not a record low as compared to the total of all property listings seen in the month. In fact the total was 20% up on the low of January 2009.

In terms of asking price expectation the truncated mean for the month was $537,368 which was 13% down on the same period last year and 4% below the recent 3 month average. The current asking price is 15% below the peak asking price which was in February 2009.

Apartments

Chart_of_new_listings_of_Apartments_NZ_Dec_2010Listings for apartments fell in December from 594 in November to 452, again not a record low, that being 352 in January 2009. Over the past 12 months a total 6,651 new apartments have come onto the market – up 3.7% as compared to the total of 2009 at 6,416. The asking price (truncated mean) rose in December by a significant 26% as compared to the recent 3 month average.

The Auckland apartment market showed a degree of activity with 268 new listings at an asking price of $479,258. This asking price was significantly up on the recent 3 month average of $315,410. This asking price is the highest level of asking price recorded going back to January 2007.

Property Price Index

Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison; however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:

Price_Index_comparison_REINZ_sale_price_to_Realestate.co.nz_listing_price_Dec_2010Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,050 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 95% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 8,924 new listings in the month of December a total of 117 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 370,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 122,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,050 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for December 2010 can be downloaded here (1.3MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for January 2011 will be published on this website on Tuesday 1st February 2011 at 10am.

2

NZ Property Report – November 2010

Posted on: December 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe November 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of November. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The November 2010 report shows a late but by no means insignificant rise in activity in the market. The volume of new listings grew indicating a sense of confidence on the part of sellers. This was matched with a slight drop in asking price expectation. The constant factor in the market is the scale of the inventory of unsold houses which in absolute number continues to creep up, but when judged against the rate of sale of property, which is lackluster, the inventory in number of weeks of sales now reaches significant levels.

Realestate_DownloadNowA full print version of the NZ Property Report – November 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.3MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – November 2010

Cover_image_of_NZ_Property_Report_Nov_2010The comment from the October NZ Property Report was that “spring had past the property market by!” clearly the November market activity shows that “the best was saved ‘til last!” The month saw a significant (and unseasonal lift) in new listings, in some ways making up for the somewhat quieter first 3 months of spring.

The monthly sales though have as yet failed to show any appreciable lift with October reported at 4,323 3,903, the lowest recorded total for October since record show back to 1992. This low rate of sale (currently averaging 4,340 4,171 per month) is driving the inventory levels to highs not seen for over 2½ years with the equivalent of over a full year’s worth of sales on the market. In some regions that total now exceeds 2 years (Central Otago & Wairarapa) and even over 3 years (Coromandel & Northland). The November sales data is yet to be released but there does appear to be some significant pockets of activity which are driving sectors of the property market especially at the high end of price bands.

These latest statistics in this report, which have been consistent for a number of months now, in regard to trends, all continue to point to a confident market, albeit a sluggish one. Asking price expectation whilst showing some weakness this month, does not appear to be under excessive pressure, however price would seem to be the only factor able to bust the log jam of unsold inventory of houses on the market.

Asking Price

Asking price new listings chart Nov 2010The truncated mean asking price for all new listings in November fell from the peak of $420,451 in October to $417,660. On a seasonally adjusted basis the fall was less than 1% indicating that the confidence in sellers demonstrated by the volume of new listings is also reflected in asking price.

The current asking price continues to drift down below the peak of Oct 2007, currently off 2.7%.

New Listings

New listings chart Nov 2010A strong rise in new listings coming onto the market in November was higher than seasonally expected at 12,932 it was 7.3% up on a seasonally adjusted basis. Having seen slower levels of listings in the early spring season there was a sense of a “catch-up”.

On a moving annual basis the past 12 months have seen 140,214 new listings compared to 134,438 in the prior year an increase of 4.3%.

Inventory

Inventory of unsold houses Nov 2010The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of November rose again to 54,365 from 52,043 in October. This represented the equivalent of 53.2 weeks of equivalent sales, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The key driver of this rising inventory is more a reflection of somewhat lackluster sales than excessive new listings. The absolute level though at over a year of equivalent sales will continue to impact the market and maintain the “buyers-market” perspective.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Asking price regional map Nov 2010Whilst the national asking price expectation remained steady with just a small fall from prior month and a small increase over the recent 3 month average, the regional analysis shows some significant variances.

Amongst the 19 regions almost half showed a rise whilst the remained showed a fall. The three east coast regions of Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa all saw significant increases of more than 5%. The single largest fall in asking price expectation was seen in the Coromandel region which when combined with the rise in new listings may well reflect some significant re-pricing of existing listings which may be required to clear the inventory which now amounts to 262 weeks of equivalent sales.

All three of the major metro regions showed steady increase in asking price expectation.Regional

Regional Summary – Listings

New listings regional map Nov 2010The property market as judged from the perspective of the number of new listings coming onto the market from around the country, shows all the indications of a seller’s market as new listing numbers were well down on the prior year. The regional map shows a predominant blue colour for 11 of the 19 regions.

Some regions in particular are showing wild variations in new listings. The Central North Island for example had 208 new listings in October up 42% on prior year, whereas in November just 135 new listings came onto the market down 50% on prior year. Equally the Waikato went from listings in October down 25% to this month 890 new listings, up 6%.

The Coromandel region already challenged by a very high level of inventory saw a total of 349 new listings in the month up 35% of the prior year.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Inventory of unsold houses regional map Nov 2010Whereas the trend in new listings across the country would indicate a move to a seller’s market, the extent of the level of inventory of unsold houses continues to point very clearly to a buyer’s market.

Again as seen in October just two regions display a degree of balance in relation to inventory and rate of sale, these being the West Coast and Gisborne, both small regions.

Within the 19 regions four recorded record high levels of inventory – Hawkes Bay / Northland / Taranaki & Waikato. Overall the provincial market continues to fair worse than the main metro markets. The total equivalent inventory for the 16 non-metro areas reached a high of 72.6 weeks in November. This compares to just 38.8 weeks for the total of the 3 main metro areas.

The Canterbury region has seen a steady built of inventory since the September earthquake, currently at 45.7 weeks, though still less than the peak of inventory in June 2008 at 49.9 weeks for that region.

Lifestyle

Lifestyle new listings chart Nov 2010Lifestyle property listings shot up in November recording an 8.4% seasonally adjusted increase, the current moving annual total is 6.2% ahead of last year with 12,273 new lifestyle listings over the 12 months. Strong growth was seen in the Bay of Plenty region up 49% and Wellington and Central Otago both more than double the new listings of a year ago. Canterbury region was also particularly strong with 139 new listings up 14% on November last year.

The truncated mean asking price remains strong at $558,371 which is up 0.4% against the recent 3 month moving average.

Apartments

Apartment new listings chart Nov 2010New listings of apartments did show a rise in November after what had been a steady decline in new listings since Feb. At 594 new listing it was still down 7.6% compared to November last year, but up a strong 13.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from October indicating the true strength of the rise. Auckland as ever dominates the apartment market with 60% of all new listings. On a seasonally adjusted basis Auckland new listings were up 10%. The Canterbury market also fared well with 44 new listings, up 29% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The truncated mean asking price for apartments was up 2.9% as against the recent 3 month average at $369,303. In the Auckland market the asking price for apartments is currently $307,101 down 3.5%.

Property Price Index

Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison, however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:

Index_comparison_sale_prices_to_asking_prices_Nov_2010

Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,050 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 95% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 12,932 new listings in the month of October a total of 184 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 400,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 122,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,050 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for November 2010 can be downloaded here (1.3MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for December 2010 will be published on this website on Saturday 1st January 2011 at 10am.

0

Webcast – NZ Property Report Oct 2010

Posted on: November 3rd, 2010 | Posted in Buying / Selling a home, NZ Property Report

The following 3 videos provide a webcast of the content of the NZ Property Report for October 2010. We have broken the report down into three shorter 5 minute videos to assist in focusing on relevant content. The first video covers the big picture of trends across the country in the past month. This is followed by a specific video covering each of the North Island and the South Island.

North Island Summary

South Island Summary

3

NZ Property Report – October 2010

Posted on: November 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe October 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of October. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The October 2010 report follows a similar story to that of the past 3 months as the market has moved into what is traditionally a strong spring listings peak. As with sales the level of new listings continues to be well down on 2009 levels as well as slightly down on 2008 levels – a time when recession and global volatility inn credit upper most in consumers minds. The overriding issue in the market is the level of unsold houses which continues to offer buyers choice but is challenging for sellers competing with so many alternative properties. The theoretical impasse to this situation would normally be a weakening of prices, this is certainly not shown by the latest month’s expectation of asking price which rose again.

Realestate_DownloadNowA full print version of the NZ Property Report – October 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.3MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – October 2010

Cover page - NZ Property Report - Oct 2010The month of October is traditionally the 4th highest listings month – a key time as sellers, keen to capture the start of summer list knowing that the run up to Christmas is sufficient to ensure a transaction close before the year-end. This year that peak has been somewhat subdued. Total listings at 11,911 even allowing for the factor of continuing weakness in the Canterbury region was down significantly on last year (12% down) and on a seasonally adjusted basis 1% down indicating that the scale of the seasonal uplift was equally subdued.

The key factor in the market continues to be the level of sales which is the reason for the significant high levels of unsold houses on the market which is now edging ever closer to a full 12 months worth. Sales over the past 4 months have been stuck within a very tight range of 4,300 to 4,400 with no appreciable seasonal movement. These sales levels are very comparable with the same period in 2008 when this situation went on for over 10 months until the market saw activity as prices eased and inventory was cleared.

In terms of asking price expectation, sellers are certainly indicating that their view is that property prices do not need to adjust, rather the opposite having seen a further rise in asking price in October from $411,745 to $420,451 which is a significant monthly rise – 4% increase on the recent 3 month moving average and up 0.4% as against October 2009.

Asking Price

Asking_price_chart_Oct_2010The truncated mean asking price for all new listings in October was $420,451, this compares to $411,745 last month and $418,759 in Oct 2009. The market tends to see asking price rise in the spring accompanying the rise in listings. The key issue is that with the high levels of inventory the strength in asking price is counter to the market trend which was seen in 2008 when prices softened.

The current asking price is now closer than ever (just 2% behind) the peak of the market back in October 2007.

New Listings

New_listings_chart_Oct_2010The volume of new listings rose in October to 11,911 however this increase was in line with seasonal trends and in scale was significantly down on the levels of 2009.

Seen over a longer time period the total new listings in each of the past 3 years for the first 10 months were 140,742 in 2008, 111,210 in 2009 and 116,933 in 2010. This provides an insight into the change in the scale of the property market over the past 3 years.

Inventory

Inventory_chart_Oct_2010The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of October rose to 52,043 from 51,035 in September. This represented the equivalent of 48.8 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The continued subdued level of sales is holding inventory at such high levels despite this slower level of new listings, thereby adding to pressure on the market.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Regional_asking_price_map_Oct_2010The national asking price expectation showed a 3.8% increase as compared to the recent 3 month average.

The majority of the 19 regions showed overall increases with 8 showing increases of more than 5% as compared to recent 3 month average.

Particularly large growth in asking price expectation was seen in Wellington where the truncated mean asking price rose 5% to a new peak of $455,422 surpassing the prior peak in Nov 2007.

Just 4 regions showed a fall as compared to the recent average with both Gisborne and Otago posting falls of 5% or more.

Regional Summary – Listings

New_listings_regional_map_Oct_2010The regional perspective with regard to new listings in October shows some variations with still the majority of regions showing a year on year decline indicating the potential for these markets to be deficient in new listings and therefore potentially leading to a seller’s market.

Notable regions showing significant declines in new listings are Waikato, Coromandel and Bay of Plenty – however all 3 of these regions though are seeing very high levels of unsold houses.

The main metro centres of Auckland and Wellington show falls of 12% in Auckland and just 2% in Wellington. The impact of the Canterbury earthquake continues to impact the property market there with new listings down 26% an identical level to last month in some ways reflecting the fact that whilst significantly impacted, the situation has not worsened with 1,312 new listings in the region over the past month.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Regional_inventory_map_Oct_2010It is very clear from the regional map of inventory levels that the property market continues to favour buyers when viewed purely from the perspective of the rate of sale as compared to the level of unsold houses on the market.

Some of these levels across the country are approaching or has reached new highs. In the month of October 4 regions posted new highs: Coromandel at 325 weeks, Northland at 181 weeks, Marlborough with 87 weeks and Waikato with 67 weeks.

Set against those significant highs are the only 2 regions which are showing levels below long term average – the West Coast of the South Island and Gisborne.

The main centres of Auckland and Wellington has levels slightly above average with Wellington showing this month a significant rise to 26 weeks. The Canterbury region has risen significantly this month primarily as a function of the very low sales reporting in September as a function of the disruptive impact of the earthquake at the start of the month.

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle_listings_chart_)ct_2010The level of new lifestyle listings grew again in October following strong growth in August and September. On a seasonally adjusted basis the total of 1,110 listings represented a 3% growth, as compared to October 2009 actual listings are down 4.3%.

The truncated mean asking price for the new listings in October was up 11% from September to $584,912. This also represents an 8.3% increase in asking price compared to the recent 3 month moving average.

Apartments

Apartment_listings_chart_Oct_2010A total of 509 apartments were listed in October. The last 3 months has seen almost identical levels which reflects in a 7.5% seasonally adjusted decline and a 21.8% year on year decline. The truncated mean asking price fell to $356,306 in October from $362,427 in September. This level is down 5.4% as compared to October 2009. It is also the lowest price since the peak of the market at $460,734 way back in December 2007.

In the Auckland market total listings amounted to 310 down 27.1% as compared to a year ago and down 23.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Asking price expectation also fell from $321,845 in September to $317,283 in October, this represented a 10.6% fall from October 2009 and a down 0.9% as compared to the recent 3 month moving average.

Property Price Index

Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison, however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:

Property Price Index oct 2010

Index comparison Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,130 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 95% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 11,911 new listings in the month of October a total of 153 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 400,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 118,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,130 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for October 2010 can be downloaded here (1.3MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for November 2010 will be published on this website on Wednesday 1st December 2010 at 10am.

1

NZ Property Report – September 2010

Posted on: October 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

The New Zeland monthly Property Report from Realestate.co.nzThe September 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of September. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The September 2010 report tracks a key month as the market heads into spring. Whilst the level of new listings is up, the extent of the rise does not reflect a buoyant enthusiasm by sellers. Equally whilst the volumes may not be massive the expectation of asking price is holding firm, up slightly on the prior month and short term average. The key determinant of the market though remains the levels of unsold houses which at 11 months is high.

Realestate_DownloadNowA full print version of the NZ Property Report – September 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.1MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – September 2010

Cover page Oct reportThe much anticipated spring surge in new listings appears to have failed to eventuate with the number rising by just 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis from August. The September total of 10,559 new listings is down by 17% as compared to Sep 2009 (12,674) and down 12% as compared to Sep 2008 (11,966).

The Canterbury earthquake did impact the new listings for September. However it was not as significantly as might have been anticipated. The total of 1,211 new listings added in the month across the region was down 26% on the August total of 1,354; but making adjustments for seasonality and evaluating the rest of the country performance on new listings it would appear that the impact is of the order of 20% less listings across the Canterbury region than would have been expected; this would amounting to around 290 listings coming onto the market.

The continued pressure in the market remains the high level of inventory of unsold houses; this rose again in September to 47.5 weeks despite the significant lower absolute level of new listings. Inventory levels as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales are up 48% year-on-year and a long way adrift from the long term average of 39 weeks.

The asking price expectation across the country crept up slightly allowing for the seasonal rise which is evident at this time of year as properties are listed to meet the seasonal activity. This 1% rise on a seasonally adjusted basis would seem to signal a confidence amongst sellers, that buyers who have for so long been sitting on the sidelines will become more active.

Asking Price

Asking_price_chart_Sep_2010The asking price expectation of new listings increased again in September up to $411,745 from $403,423 in August. This represents a 2% fall as compared to September last year. Against recent 3 month period the price represented a 2% increase.

The current asking price still lags 4% behind the peak of the market – some 35 months ago now in October 2007.

New Listings

New_listings_chart_Sep_2010The volume of new listings rose between August and September as is expected at this time of year. However the levels failed to spark a recovery to levels seen in prior years at this time.

The trend reflects what has been a subdued year in listings with just 105,022 in the 9 months of the year. This is not significantly above the 2009 total for the same period of 97,660. By comparison over the first 9 months of 2008 126,275 new listings came onto the market.

Inventory

Inventory_chart_Sep_2010The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of September totaled 51,035 up 2% from August. This represented the equivalent of 47.5 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The continued subdued level of sales is holding inventory at such high levels despite this slower level of new listings, thereby adding to pressure on the market.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

Asking_price_map_Sep_2010The national asking price expectation showed a 1.8% increase as compared to the recent 3 month average. However underlying this national picture is a wide variation of price movements.

There were more regions showing increases this month (13) than falls (6). The largest rise was in Otago which at $293,362 recorded an all time high in asking price surpassing the prior peak in October 2007. Other large rises were seen in Central North Island, Manawatu and Gisborne although these were far from peak prices.

On the declining side there were some large falls seen in the Coromandel, Hawkes Bay and largest of all at 14% decline in the Queenstown Lakes region. This latter region does see significant volatility with a peak in July 2007 of $668,973 and a low of $479,699 in February 2009. The current level of $536,592 is therefore more reflective of a midpoint.

Regional Summary – Listings

New_listings_map_Sep_2010The predominant colour of the regional map for September would indicate that the future prospects for the property market could lead to a seller’s market. The level of new listings is significantly below last year in all but one region – Southland.

This significant decline in new listings, with fully half of all regions showing greater than 20% year-on-year decline is however being balanced off with lower year-on-year sales and this is where the telling indicator of inventory levels shows a true picture of the market.

Allowing for the specific issues experienced in Canterbury the listings in the two other main metro areas saw less extreme falls in new listings coming onto the market.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Inventory_map_Sep_2010With a national level of 47.5 weeks the regional perspective of inventory of unsold homes remains well above long term average with just 2 regions (Gisborne and West Coast) dipping below long term average.

At the extreme, the Coromandel region would have to take the award. The current stock of property on the market totals 2,002 listings. Set against this stock is a sales volume in August of 18, following a July total of 19 property sales. These extraordinary sales levels mean that the current inventory represents 289 weeks of sales – or over five and a half years.

The Nelson region which has been seeing some shift to a seller’s market in prior months has fallen back as inventory has grown to 32 weeks up from the long term average of 28 weeks.

The main metro regions of Auckland and Wellington whilst not in extreme levels of inventory both show a reasonable level of inventory above the long term average.

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle_chart_Sep_2010Lifestyle properties certainly picked up in September with 980 new listings. This was up from 840 in August, although as compared to last year the seasonal increase is not as significant. On a rolling 12 month basis lifestyle property listings are up 7.4% with 12,322 listed in the past 12 months.

The asking price expectation of these new listings was $527,170 which was on all comparative metrics was significantly lower. As against the recent 3 month period it was down 5.1%, against September 2009 down 12% and down 5% compared to August 2010.

Apartments

Apartment_chart_Sep_2010There was no appreciable seasonal lift in apartments coming onto the market in September. A total of 506 new apartment listings were added in the month. This was down 2% from the prior month and down 16% on the same month a year ago. The relative perspective for the Auckland market was 345 new listings, down just 1% year-on-year.

The asking price expectation was fairly firm with a truncated mean of $362,427 which is 0.4% up on the recent 3 month period, but down 13.4% on the same month last year. Auckland apartments equally showed recent stability off just 0.5% as against recent 3 months and down 12.6% as against September 2009.

Property Price Index

Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison, however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:

Index comparisonRealestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,130 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 95% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 10,559 new listings in the month of July, a total of 177 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 400,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 118,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,130 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for September 2010 can be downloaded here (1.1MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for October 2010 will be published on this website on Monday 1st November 2010 at 10am.

10

NZ Property Report – August 2010

Posted on: September 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe August 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of August. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The August 2010 report shows a market heavily impacted by low sales volumes. The lack of sales would seem to be impacting the number of new listings which are coming onto the market which are down by more than 10% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This tightening of supply is not sufficient to lessen the burden of inventory already on the market which barely moved in the month. Set against this is the fact that asking price expectation of sellers remains steady following a significant fall last month.

Realestate_DownloadNowA full print version of the NZ Property Report – August 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.3MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – August 2010

Report_cover_Aug_2010The month of August tends to show the first signs of the spring pick-up in activity in the property market, although the most significant impact is really felt from September onwards. The month of August this year showed little signs of such a pick-up, with new listings below 10,000 and down nearly 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

This decline in listings would ordinarily signal a tightening of the market at this time of year, were it not for the existing high levels of inventory already on the market and the flow-on impact of slow sales. The reported sales for July from REINZ were 4,411 which was the lowest July on record, down 27% from July 2009. These slow sales are resulting in inventory levels of unsold houses remaining above 46 weeks as compared to the long term average of 38 weeks, reinforcing the view that the market still favours buyers over sellers.

Behind the headline national figures lies a continuing sense of a two speed property market. The major metro areas are certainly stronger than provincial NZ.

  • Auckland has inventory levels closer to long term average (36 weeks vs. 33 weeks), new listing numbers were trending lower than the national average and the asking price has been edging up for the past couple of months.
  • Wellington equally is now at a level of inventory only slightly above long term average, new listings are down and asking price is steady.
  • Canterbury at 32 weeks of inventory of unsold houses is sitting right on the long term average, it has steady asking price and new listings volumes down 10% compared to prior year.

Asking Price

Asking price cht Aug 2010Asking price expectations picked up slightly in August having fallen significantly in July. The truncated mean asking price for August was $403,423, down just 0.6% on the prior 3 month average and up 1.6% on August last year. This would indicate stability in price expectation amongst sellers.

The current asking price still lags 6% behind the peak of the market – some 34 months ago now in October 2007.

New Listings

New listings cht August 2010The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in August with under 10,000 for the first time since June last year. As the chart shows this is the 5th consecutive month of decline.

Over the 12 months to August 2010 a total of 144,893 new listings came onto the market. This compared with 134,165 in the prior period – an increase of 8.0%, on the same comparison property sales have not kept pace rising only 2.8%.

Inventory

Inventory chart Aug 2010The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of July totaled 50,138 down 4.3% from July. This represented the equivalent of 46.1 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory level did not fall as markedly due to slower property sales.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

Asking price map Aug 2010Nationally the asking price expectation of the new listings in August showed very little change following the significant fall in July. Measured on a month-on-month basis or versus a 3 month average the variance is small. This would indicate that sellers sense that no further adjustment is required to ‘meet-the-market’ and thereby the expectation of buyers.

Across the country the trends are mixed with just 5 of the 19 regions showing rises in asking price expectations – all of which are below 5%. On the declining side there were some significant shifts with Central North Island down 21.5% and Wairarapa down 15.6%, both of these two regions are now sitting at a low point in asking price stretching back to Jan 2007.

Regional Summary – Listings

New listings map Aug 2010The steady decline in new listings seen for 5 straight months is beginning to tell in the market with early signs of what could be a looming shortage, if sales were to take off.

Around the country the predominant trend is fewer listings on a year-on-year basis; 10 of the 19 regions showed falls with a further 4 showing stable listings volumes.

In four of the regions (Northland, Waikato, Coromandel and Wairarapa) the level of new listings in August were the lowest months on record stretching back to January 2007, indicating the state of the market in these provincial areas.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Inventory map Aug 2010Despite the decline in new listings the inventory of unsold houses remains doggedly high. This is especially true of provincial areas more than metropolitan regions of the country.

Examining the 3 main centres shows that they are close too or actually in line with long term average levels of inventory thereby indicating that in these cities the market is well balanced.

Across the provincial areas of the country though the picture is very different as the swathe of green shows on the map indicating the higher levels of inventory as compared to long term averages.

The only provincial areas bucking this trend are Otago and Nelson. The latter particularly is conspicuous in now having an inventory below long term average and thereby indicating that the market is now edging more to a seller’s market; something not seen in this country for a couple of years.

Lifestyle Property

Lifetsyle_listungs_chart_Aug_2010Lifestyle property listings were subdued in August with 840 new properties coming onto the market, down 5.2% on August last year. Compared to the same period for the past 2 years lifestyle property listings could be seen as a fairly steady market.

In regard to asking price expectation the truncated mean for August was $556,440, this is up 3.8% on July and up 3.4% on the prior 3 months indicating strength in price expectation.

Apartments

Apartment_listings_chart_Aug_2010A total of 516 new apartment listings came onto the market in August. This represents a 7.7% decline month-on-month and a 13.3% year-on-year decline. Whilst not the lowest month, new listings in this sector continue to remain flat as they have done for the past 3 years.

The Auckland market saw 336 new apartments listed, down 3.7% month-on-month and 8.9% down year-on-year.

In terms of asking price expectation the truncated mean asking price in August was $358,030 which is identical to the prior month and down 2.6% compared to the prior 3 month period.

Property Price Index

Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison, however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:

Property_Price_Index_Aug_2010

Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,160 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 94% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 11,106 new listings in the month of July, a total of 165 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 350,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,o00 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,140 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for August 2010 can be downloaded here (1.4MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for September 2010 will be published on this website on Friday 1st October 2010 at 10am.

9

NZ Property Report – July 2010

Posted on: August 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe July 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of July. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The July 2010 report shows the first signs of some balancing within the market with new listings declining and a matching fall in asking price expectation. Both of these signals match to the reality that the property market is moving at a very slow pace in regard to sales and therefore for those needing to sell, pricing appropriately and marketing smartly are the only approach that can generate interest from what is clearly a reduced pool of buyers.

Realestate_DownloadNowA full print version of the NZ Property Report – July 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – July 2010

July_NZ_Property_report_coverWith the property market now firmly in the middle of winter the level of new listings coming onto the market has eased to a level expected of this quieter period of the year. For almost 9 months the flow of new listings has been at a level ahead of a year prior, but in July that trend was reversed. The net result of this steady flow of new listings for over 9 months is seen very clearly in the inventory levels. Measured on an equivalent number of weeks of sales the inventory of unsold houses across the country remains at high levels as compared to long term averages.

This strength of listings matched to the existing stock of unsold houses is challenging for property owners looking for buyers in what is a very slow paced market. In terms of sales of properties as reported by the REINZ the first 6 months of 2010 have seen just 29,844 sales; compared to 34,169 in the same 6 months of 2009 – a 12.7% decline.

It would appear that set against this market with high inventory and strong new listings sellers are heading the advice of real estate agents to price property to attract interest in the market which is what is driving these more competitive prices, down from $410,058 in June to $400,481 in July.

As has been commented on before the market situation between provincial and metropolitan NZ continues. In terms of new listings the 3 key metro areas saw an 11.6% decline in new listing in July compared to 2.3% increase for the sum total of provincial regions.

Asking Price

Asking_price_chart_July_2010Asking price expectations of new listings coming onto the market fell significantly in July. From a peak of asking prices in March of $422,648 the truncated mean asking price has fallen to just $400,481 in 4 months.

This price represents a seasonally adjusted fall of 1.1% from June; it is also at the same levels as the month of July in both 2009 and 2008 signaling the softness in the market.

New Listings

Chart_of_new_listings_July_2010The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell slightly from the June level of 11,106 to 10,586 in July. This represented a 2.3% decline when measured on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Over the 12 months to July 2010 a total of 145,733 new listings came onto the market. This compared with 134,378 in the prior period – an increase of 8.5%, on the same comparison property sales have at least kept pace up 8.1%

Inventory

Chart_of_inventory July 2010The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of July totaled 52,404 up slightly from June. This represented the equivalent of 46.8 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory levels had been beginning to fall over the preceding two months, but this month saw a slight correction.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

Map_of_asking_price_July_2010The regional view of asking price changed significantly in July from both May and June. Asking prices have continued to ease with the scale of falls in some regions becoming quite marked as seen by the deep red colour in 5 of the 19 regions; these indicate falls of over 5% as compared to an average of the preceding 3 months – all are in provincial north island regions. Wairarapa with an asking price of $250,135 is the lowest reported over the past 3 years.

Asking prices did however firm across 3 regions – Queenstown lakes, Nelson and Gisborne. These South island regions also were regions that showed a more balanced market in both listings and inventory.

All of the 3 main metro areas showed easing in asking price most noticeable in Wellington and Canterbury, the latter showing a 4.6% fall from the 3 month average.

Regional Summary – New Listings

Map_of_new_listings_July_2010Whilst July levels of new listings were down just 1.7% compared to the prior month there was a turning point in the market. July was the first month this year to witness a decline on a –year-on-year basis; the last such month was back in October 2009.

Across the regions based purely on levels of new listings there were 8 regions of the 19 that saw falls indicating a switch from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market. Matched to these regions there were just 6 regions showing growth in listings with the Coromandel, Nelson and the West Coast recording listings growth of over 20%.

The Northland region recorded its lowest level of monthly listings at 399 since the beginning of 2007, down 5.7% compared to June and 3.2% below July 2009.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Map_of_inventory_July_2010The indicative trend highlighted last month where there were a number of regions which were beginning to find a balance with less influence of buyers has taken a step backwards with the vast majority of regions back into a stronger position for buyers. Even the Nelson region which in June showed a modest sellers market has fallen back somewhat to a more balanced market.

In July of the 19 regions, all but 5 are showing a significant buyer’s market based on the current inventory as measured against long term averages.

The 3 regions of the country which are fairly well balanced with neither a buyers nor sellers market are regions with a heavy influence of lifestyle and potentially overseas interest – Queenstown, Nelson and the Coromandel.

Lifestyle Property

Chart_of_new_lifestyle_listings_July_2010The flow of new listings for lifestyle properties continued to fall in July with just 833 new listings across the country, placing July amongst the lowest months going back to 2007. On a year-on-year comparison July was down 13.9%.

The asking price expectation also fell from $573,893 in June to $536,155 in July – a 2.3% fall as compared to the prior 3 months, but identical to July 2009. Significant price falls were seen in Gisborne, Canterbury, Marlborough, the Manawatu / Wanganui as well as the Wairarapa.

Apartments

Chart_of_new_apartment_listings_July_2010The apartment market as judged by new listings seems flat with the past 3 months witnessing almost identical levels of new listings – 559 new ones in July. This represents a 23.7% decline from July 2009. Within the Auckland region where the majority of apartments are, new listings in July totaled 349, identical to June but down 35.5% as compared to a year earlier.

The asking price expectation of new apartment listings fell 7.7% in July as compares to the recent 3 month average at $357,616; this represented a 2.1% decline as compared to July 2009. For Auckland the asking price was $323,327 – down 8.3% compared to the recent 3 month average and down 5.5% as compared to July 2009.

Property Price Index

Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison, however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:

Property_price_index_July_2010

Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,160 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 94% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 11,106 new listings in the month of July, a total of 165 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 350,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,o00 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 26,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,000 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,160 offices, the company represents over 94% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for June 2010 can be downloaded here (1.4MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for August 2010 will be published on this website on Wednesday 1st September 2010 at 10am.

1

NZ Property Report – June 2010

Posted on: July 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe June 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of June. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The summary view of the report for June 2010 is that the market continues to witness a confidence amongst sellers, who are keen to market their properties, and who despite the relative stock of property on the market signal at this stage no further easing of asking price expectation.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – June 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.4MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – June 2010

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report June 2010The property market continues to attract sellers, witnessed by the relatively strong level of new listings with 11,106 coming onto the market in June. This level is up 16% on the same month last year. At that time in June 2009 the market was experiencing a listings’ shortage as well-financed buyers where negotiating hard with sellers keen to offload their property as property prices had fallen through late 2008 and early 2009, and uncertainty surrounded the future direction of pricing in a market so accustomed to property price appreciation. This situation is best seen from the perspective of inventory levels – 35 weeks of equivalent sales volume on the market a year ago compared to 45 weeks today.

The asking price expectation has moved little in the past month following the more significant drop between April and May. At the time this was judged to be a pragmatic reaction by sellers eager to “meet the market” in price terms and seek to attract what continues to be a weak level of buyer activity. The truncated mean asking price for June at $410,058 would seem to indicate a staunch position taken by sellers as the revised level they judge to be the “market”, not requiring further adjustments down in price at this time.

As briefly commented upon in last month’s report the budget announcement in mid May regarding property investment had the potential to impact the supply side of the market in terms of new listings in June and July. Whilst the level of new listings in June was up on a seasonally adjusted basis, the asking price expectation change would not be seen as reflective of the impact of rental properties coming onto the market, as this would likely be seen to drag down the truncated mean price whereas the case was that the asking price level edged up in June.

Asking Price

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report - Asking price chart June 2010Asking price expectations of new listings coming onto the market rose very slightly in June following the fall in May. This would seem to indicate that sellers recognise the need to price according to the market conditions which show little signs of appreciation.

As compared to a year ago the May 2009 the price was up marginally by 1.7%, however the truncated mean price for the month of June is still 4.4% below the peak of the market back in October 2007.

New Listings

New listings cht June 2010The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in June to 11,106 – down 5% from May, however when the expected winter slow down is factored in with a seasonally adjusted factor the true state of the new listings market shows a 5% increase.

Over the 12 months to June 2010 a total of 145,920 new listings came onto the market. This was up 8% on the same 12 months to June 2009.

Inventory

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report - Inventory chart June 2010The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of June totaled 51,916 barely changed from the May total. This represented the equivalent of 45.3 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory levels are beginning to fall having risen to their peak in April at 51.6 weeks of equivalent sales.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report - Asking price map June 2010The asking price expectation of sellers in June reflected the current state of the market with only a marginal change following the fall in May.

Across the country the main view is that asking price expectation is coming under pressure with 11 of the 19 regions reporting asking prices which are below the recent 3 month average. The main metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury all showed an easing of asking price. There was a notable and significant increase in asking price in the Queenstown Lakes region from $523,760 to $642,710 coupled with a 29% increase in new listings.

Regional Summary – New Listings

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report - Listings map June 2010As the regional map shows the overall sentiment of the market remains in the territory of a buyer’s market, a full 15 of the 19 regions are showing a year-on-year increase in new listings, with 10 regions posting increases of over 20%.

The larger regions of Auckland, Canterbury, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty all showed year- on-year increases of 10% or less, although the Wellington region bucked the trend with a 29% year-on-year increase in new listings.

Dividing the country up into metropolitan and provincial areas, the metro areas (3 key centers) are experiencing a lower rate of increase in new listings (+12%) as compared to provincial areas (+21%).

Regional Summary – Inventory

Relestate.co.nz NZ Property Report - Inventory map - June 2010The picture of the regional property market is showing signs of changing. For most of the year- to-date the view of the market has been very clearly skewed to a strong buyers market. However as the chart shows there are some easing in the relative levels of inventory around the country.

The chart represents the actual inventory of unsold houses (measured in terms of equivalent number of weeks of sales) by region matched to the long term average (LTA) inventory level. An inventory level significantly higher than the LTA indicates a buyer’s market, with a figure significantly lower indicating a sellers market.

Whilst the predominant sentiment across the country is still to it being a buyer’s market; at this time 6 of the 19 regions are this month moving towards a more balanced market, with the Nelson region clearly bucking the trend with a bias to a seller’s market with inventory below the LTA, sales activity strong and asking price expectation steady.

Lifestyle Property

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report - Lifestyle listings cht June 2010The steady flow of new listings of lifestyle properties appears to have stalled in June. Having seen 4 straight months with a similar level of c.1,100 listings the new volume of listings in June dropped by 18% to 945. A key contributor to this decline was the Auckland region where a 44% month-on-month decline was seen with just 195 lifestyle listings in the month. Matched to this was Canterbury region with a 32% decline from 147 to 100.

The asking price expectation of these listings though remains strong with an increase (month-on-month) of 14% to $573,893, however the sector does experience variance in asking price due to the sample set and diversity of properties.

Apartments

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property report - Apartment listings cht June 2010The number of new apartments coming onto the market in June remained pretty much in line with May with a total of 562 in the month. This represented an 18% year-on-year growth. Looking at the long term trend, the last 12 months has seen a 24% increase as compared to the prior period with the Auckland region as the largest market recording a 26% increase on a 12 month moving average basis.

The truncated mean asking price for the month was $367,216 which was down 5% on the most recent 3 month average and down 15% as compared to June last year. The Auckland region showed an asking price expectation of $331,958, down 6% on the recent 3 month average and 11% down on June last year.

Property Price Index

Comparing absolute house price sale data to listing price expectation is not a like-for-like comparison, however the alignment of trends can be useful as detailed below:

Realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report - Table of price index comparison June 2010

Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,160 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 94% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 11,106 new listings in the month of June, a total of 160 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 350,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,o00 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 26,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,000 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,160 offices, the company represents over 94% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for June 2010 can be downloaded here (1.4MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for July 2010 will be published on this website on Sunday 1st August 2010 at 10am.

11

NZ Property Report – May 2010

Posted on: June 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe fall in the asking price expectation of new listings coming onto the market in May (from $422,520 in April to $407,349 in May) would seem to indicate that the state of the market is driving a behaviour amongst new sellers to price property to meet-the-market. That is to say in this case given the high levels of inventory of unsold homes matched to sluggish property sales, something has to give and price is what has been adjusted. The sales figure for April from REINZ was 5,207 as compared to April 2009 at 6,210. This means that to achieve a secure sale in today’s market requires sellers to price at a competitive level relative to other similar properties on the market.

These statistics are detailed in the latest NZ Property Report for May 2010, published here and available as a downloadable report to print or distribute.

Cover_of_May_2010_reportIt is worth highlighting at this point that there is no evidence within the daily data of new listings coming onto the market that the asking price has been affected by any move as a result of the budget of May 20th. In fact new listings slowed considerably in the last week of the month and the truncated mean asking price of those listings was not significantly different from earlier in the month.

This report for May has a revised set of data for inventory. Following feedback from economists, the inventory data which is derived from the stock of unsold houses divided by the 3 month moving average sales figures from the Real Estate Institute has been adjusted to now reflect seasonally adjusted sales. This will ensure that inventory as measured in equivalent weeks-of-sales is now itself seasonally adjusted to better track the level of unsold homes on the market. All historical data in this report has been recalculated to reflect this change.

Asking Price

Asking price cht AMy 2010Property price expectations of new listings coming onto the market fell by 4% in the month of May as compared to April. Asking price has been volatile over the past 6 months which has also typified a quieter period of sales in the market; however since early 2009 asking price expectation has been trending upward.

As compared to May 2009 the price was up marginally by 1.5%, however the truncated mean price is still some 5% below the peak of the market back in October 2007.

New Listings

NZ Property Report May 2010 - new listings Realestate.co.nzThe volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in May to 11,733 – down 4% from April, however the figure is up 17% as compared to the same period last year.

Whilst the month-on-month decline is consistent across the regions; underlying the national figures is a higher increase (year on year) in new listings in the 3 key metro markets.

Inventory

NZ Property Report May 2010 - Inventory of unsold houses Realestate.co.nzThe level of unsold houses on the market at the end of May totaled 51,980.This represented the equivalent of 46.9 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory of unsold homes had been rising steadily over the past 11 months, however for the first time the trend has halted. A key contributor to this has been the slowing in the pace of new listings coming onto the market, especially as property sales still remain sluggish.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

NZ Property Report May 2010 - Asking price expectation across the regions of NZ Realestate.co.nzAfter a 3 month period through the summer and autumn when asking prices remained stubbornly fixed at the c.$420,000 level whilst inventory crept up and sales remained sluggish; the asking price has fallen by a significant level in May.

Of the 19 regions, 7 did show asking price increases, although these were outside the 3 main centres of which Auckland set the mood with a 2.5% fall in asking price as compared to the recent 3 month period. The increases of price in Wairarapa and West Coast should be taken cautiously as they are two of the smaller regions in terms of volumes of new listings. The significant falls in the regions of Northland, Coromandel and Nelson could reflect the seasonal changes with holiday accommodation changes at the end of summer, and in fact are reflective of similar falls this time last year.

Regional Summary – New Listings

NZ Property Report - May 2010 regional map of new listings Realestate.co.nzAcross the 19 regions of the country, listings showed significant increases in 7 areas with a further 4 posting double digit year-on-year growth. The main metro centres of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury all showed significant year-on-year increase. This is many ways more of a refection that a year ago the market was showing a resurgence as existing stock was being snapped up by bargain hunters, as falling prices had stimulated the market. This year no such activity has been seen.

There were some significant falls in new listings coming onto the market across the regions, mainly in provincial areas where certainly property sales have been more sluggish and where sellers may have been reluctant to enter the market.

Regional Summary – Inventory

NZ Property Report May 2010 Inventory of unsold houses, regional analysis - Realestate.co.nzThe prevailing sentiment from the level of inventory of unsold houses remains clearly in the camp of property buyers having the upper hand in the market. Of the 19 regions just 3 showed any balance in the market, with only the Central Otago Lakes posting an inventory level lower than the long term average, indicating a slight shift to sellers being in the box seat in this region.

The data for May as with all data for inventory as noted previously has been adjusted to reflect seasonally adjusted sales which has removed some of the volatility extremes of inventory, and better represented true inventory.

Despite the clear view that the property market is currently firmly in the camp of a buyers markets as it has been for a number of months; there are regions of the country which with prevailing conditions remaining, will likely see a shift out of their market focus in the coming months. Of those regions the main ones will be Wellington and Taranaki, which are close to being a more balanced market with neither sellers nor buyers having the upper hand.

Lifestyle Property

NZ Property Report - May 2010 Listings of Lifestyle properties Realestate.co.nzA total of 1,146 new listings of lifestyle properties came onto the market in May. This is the fourth month with listings in excess of 1,100, all of which have represented strong year-on-year growth in listings.

The truncated mean asking price has though over the same period fallen significantly from a peak of $601,000 in January to the May figure of $504,557. This figure for May represents a 13% fall comparing the month to May 2009 and a 9% fall as compared to the recent 3 month average.

Within the total, the Auckland region featured strongly with 345 new listings up 64% on May 2009 with an asking price expectation exactly in line with the prior 3 months and prior year at $871,091.

Apartments

NZ Property Report May 2010 New listings for apartments Realestate.co.nzThe number of new apartments fell again with just 560 coming onto the market in May. This however represents an 18% year-on-year increase, taking the levels back to 2008 market levels.

The truncated mean asking price was down 4% on the prior 3 months at $377,893 and down 5% as compared to May 2009.

As ever the Auckland market dominates the figures with a total of 367 new apartment listings coming onto the market, up 20% on May last year with an asking price expectation of $344,541 down 5% on prior 3 months and down 2% compared to last year.

Property Price Index

Comparing absolute house price sale data to listing price expectation is not a like-for-like comparison, however the alignment of trends can be useful as detailed below:NZ Property Report May 2010 Property Price Index comparison Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz: data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,160 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 94% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 11,733 new listings in the month of May, a total of 405 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned website providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the website comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%). The website is the most comprehensive website for real estate in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,160 offices, the website features over 94% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. Realestate.co.nz was visited by over 401,000 unique browsers in the month of April from both domestic and international visitors. The website is the most popular website for international visitors enquiring of NZ real estate, with over 124,000 unique browsers in the month of April from more than 200 countries.

The full NZ Property Report for May 2010 can be downloaded here (1.4MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for June 2010 will be published on this website on Thursday 1st July 2010 at 10am.

2

NZ Property Report – April 2010

Posted on: May 1st, 2010 | Posted in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small houseThe level of new listings coming onto the market fell in the month of April on an actual basis by 15%, and on a seasonally adjusted basis by 6%. This has led to the arresting of the steady increase seen in inventory levels of unsold houses over the past 10 months. Clearly as a function of the level of new listings sellers seem confident to put their properties on the market.

These statistics are detailed in the latest NZ Property Report for April 2010, published here and available as a downloadable report.

Click here to download the full report (1.2MB pdf)

The overall level of inventory of unsold homes remains high indicating that for the majority of the country a buyer’s market prevails, albeit with a trend beginning towards a balanced market.

The asking price expectation in April clearly signals that sellers keen to list their property show no signs of feeling that prices are moving significantly up or down; as for 3 months now this expectation has been fixed at around $420,000. The movement in the last few months has slowed to less than 1% bringing the year on year change to just 4%. This year on year change is less than the current annual price appreciation of 7% reported in the REINZ Stratified price for March.

Regionally the market in the main metropolitan centres continues at a faster pace than provincial NZ where there has been a noticeable slowing of new listings coming onto market which however has failed to impact inventory as sales in these areas are equally running at low levels.

Asking Price

NZ Property Report - April 2010 Realestate.co.nzProperty price expectations of new listings coming onto the market barely moved in the past month. The truncated mean of the 12,225 listings added in the month was $422,520, this was unchanged against the most recent 3 month average and up just 4% as compared to April 2009. Overall asking prices have been creeping up for over 15  months from lows of $390,000.

New Listings

NZ Property Report - April 2010 New listings added to the market Realestate.co.nzThe volume of new listings coming onto the market fell in April in what is traditionally a quieter month. The 12,225 listings though still represent a 17% increase as compared to a year ago. At that time a year ago the property market was finding an active level of bargain hunters matched to a nervous range of sellers which resulted in a rapid decline in new listings and subsequent inventory.

Inventory

NZ Property Report - April 2010 Inventory of unsold homes Realestate.co.nzThe level of unsold houses on the market at the end of April totaled 53,123.This represented the equivalent of 46.5 weeks.

The inventory of unsold homes had been rising steadily over the past 10 months, however for the first time the trend has been reversed. A component of this is the seasonal trend which sees greater levels of new listings in summer vs. autumn.

At this time last year the inventory levels were at 42.5 weeks as at that time new listings were drying up as sellers were nervous of the threat of collapsing house prices.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

NZ Property Report - April 2010 Regional asing price expectations Realestate.co.nzThe change between March and April in terms of asking price expectation across the various regions is that whilst overall price movements nationally have hardly changed, there has been a variety of movements within the regions. Most of these movements are not significant in scale – most being less than 5% when viewed as current month compared to recent 3 month average.

Across the 19 regions, 5 showed increases of which the Coromandel was the largest with a 5.3% increase. 8 regions showed falls with the 7% decline in the Wairarapa the largest. The balance of 6 regions showed hardly any change in price.

Regional Summary – New Listings

NZ Property Report - April 2010 regional new listings Realestate.co.nzAcross the regions the trend of new listings coming onto the market indicates a view of a buyer’s market however there are changes from the month of March.

There were 3 regions in April which reported year on year listings decline for the month – Central North Island, Nelson and Manawatu / Wanganui; the latter 2 showing a significant decline of over 20%.

There still remain 8 of the 19 regions showing significant year on year growth in listings for the month including the main metropolitan centres. The largest increases were seen in Coromandel and Southland – both over 60%, with Wellington at 40% year on year increase. Auckland and Canterbury showed 22% and 26% increases respectively.

Regional Summary – Inventory

NZ Property Report - April 2010 Regional inventory Realestate.co.nzInventory levels fell across all of the 19 regions with the sole exception of the West Coast which rose slightly to 162 weeks.

Whilst the inventory levels have fallen the vast majority of the regions are experiencing levels of inventory well above both long term average (2007-2009) as well as measured against the prior 12 month average.

The broad perspective is that for 15 of the regions across the country including all the main urban centres inventory levels place the market firmly in the camp of a buyer’s market with a good selection of properties available for interested buyers.

The region of the Coromandel is the only region that based on current inventory (154 weeks) is moving very slightly towards a sellers market. The comparable data is that for the Coromandel the average inventory over the past 3 years has been 173 weeks and over the past 12 months 188 weeks – the peak of inventory for the Coromandel was reached in December 2008 at 284 weeks.

Lifestyle Property

NZ Property Report - April 2010 Lifestyle properties Realestate.co.nzA total of 1,124 new listings of lifestyle properties came onto the market in April. This represented a 24% year on year increase. This level has remained strong over the past 3 months all of which have been well ahead of the same months a year ago.

At $567,101 the truncated mean asking price was down 2% on March and 3% down as compared to the recent 3 month average.

The largest rise in new listings was seen in the Bay of Plenty with 102 new listings, more than double the levels of April 2009

Apartments

NZ Property Report - April 2010 Apartments Realestate.co.nzThe number of new apartments listed remained steady in April with 601 listed in the month. The overall level of new apartment listings is strong with a 48% year on year growth. In the first 4 months of this year 2,393 new apartment listings have come onto the market – a 35% increase over the same period last year

The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings at $416,986 was up 5.9% on the latest 3 month average, up 12% on prior year.

The Wellington market continues to see strong growth in listings with a further 108 listed in April taking the 4 months total for 2010 to 471 a 126% increase compared to 2009.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for May 2010 will be published on this website on Tuesday 1st June at 10am.

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