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NZ Property Report – August 2010

Posted on: September 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The August 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of August. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The August 2010 report shows a market heavily impacted by low sales volumes. The lack of sales would seem to be impacting the number of new listings which are coming onto the market which are down by more than 10% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This tightening of supply is not sufficient to lessen the burden of inventory already on the market which barely moved in the month. Set against this is the fact that asking price expectation of sellers remains steady following a significant fall last month.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – August 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.3MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – August 2010

The month of August tends to show the first signs of the spring pick-up in activity in the property market, although the most significant impact is really felt from September onwards. The month of August this year showed little signs of such a pick-up, with new listings below 10,000 and down nearly 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

This decline in listings would ordinarily signal a tightening of the market at this time of year, were it not for the existing high levels of inventory already on the market and the flow-on impact of slow sales. The reported sales for July from REINZ were 4,411 which was the lowest July on record, down 27% from July 2009. These slow sales are resulting in inventory levels of unsold houses remaining above 46 weeks as compared to the long term average of 38 weeks, reinforcing the view that the market still favours buyers over sellers.

Behind the headline national figures lies a continuing sense of a two speed property market. The major metro areas are certainly stronger than provincial NZ.

Auckland has inventory levels closer to long term average (36 weeks vs. 33 weeks), new listing numbers were trending lower than the national average and the asking price has been edging up for the past couple of months.
Wellington equally is now at a level of inventory only slightly above long term average, new listings are down and asking price is steady.
Canterbury at 32 weeks of inventory of unsold houses is sitting right on the long term average, it has steady asking price and new listings volumes down 10% compared to prior year.

Asking Price

Asking price expectations picked up slightly in August having fallen significantly in July. The truncated mean asking price for August was $403,423, down just 0.6% on the prior 3 month average and up 1.6% on August last year. This would indicate stability in price expectation amongst sellers.

The current asking price still lags 6% behind the peak of the market – some 34 months ago now in October 2007.

New Listings

The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in August with under 10,000 for the first time since June last year. As the chart shows this is the 5^th consecutive month of decline.

Over the 12 months to August 2010 a total of 144,893 new listings came onto the market. This compared with 134,165 in the prior period – an increase of 8.0%, on the same comparison property sales have not kept pace rising only 2.8%.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of July totaled 50,138 down 4.3% from July. This represented the equivalent of 46.1 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory level did not fall as markedly due to slower property sales.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

Nationally the asking price expectation of the new listings in August showed very little change following the significant fall in July. Measured on a month-on-month basis or versus a 3 month average the variance is small. This would indicate that sellers sense that no further adjustment is required to ‘meet-the-market’ and thereby the expectation of buyers.

Across the country the trends are mixed with just 5 of the 19 regions showing rises in asking price expectations – all of which are below 5%. On the declining side there were some significant shifts with Central North Island down 21.5% and Wairarapa down 15.6%, both of these two regions are now sitting at a low point in asking price stretching back to Jan 2007.

Regional Summary – Listings

The steady decline in new listings seen for 5 straight months is beginning to tell in the market with early signs of what could be a looming shortage, if sales were to take off.

Around the country the predominant trend is fewer listings on a year-on-year basis; 10 of the 19 regions showed falls with a further 4 showing stable listings volumes.

In four of the regions (Northland, Waikato, Coromandel and Wairarapa) the level of new listings in August were the lowest months on record stretching back to January 2007, indicating the state of the market in these provincial areas.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Despite the decline in new listings the inventory of unsold houses remains doggedly high. This is especially true of provincial areas more than metropolitan regions of the country.

Examining the 3 main centres shows that they are close too or actually in line with long term average levels of inventory thereby indicating that in these cities the market is well balanced.

Across the provincial areas of the country though the picture is very different as the swathe of green shows on the map indicating the higher levels of inventory as compared to long term averages.

The only provincial areas bucking this trend are Otago and Nelson. The latter particularly is conspicuous in now having an inventory below long term average and thereby indicating that the market is now edging more to a seller’s market; something not seen in this country for a couple of years.

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle property listings were subdued in August with 840 new properties coming onto the market, down 5.2% on August last year. Compared to the same period for the past 2 years lifestyle property listings could be seen as a fairly steady market.

In regard to asking price expectation the truncated mean for August was $556,440, this is up 3.8% on July and up 3.4% on the prior 3 months indicating strength in price expectation.

Apartments

A total of 516 new apartment listings came onto the market in August. This represents a 7.7% decline month-on-month and a 13.3% year-on-year decline. Whilst not the lowest month, new listings in this sector continue to remain flat as they have done for the past 3 years.

The Auckland market saw 336 new apartments listed, down 3.7% month-on-month and 8.9% down year-on-year.

In terms of asking price expectation the truncated mean asking price in August was $358,030 which is identical to the prior month and down 2.6% compared to the prior 3 month period.

Property Price Index

Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison, however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:

Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,160 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 94% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 11,106 new listings in the month of July, a total of 165 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 350,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,o00 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.5m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,140 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for August 2010 can be downloaded here (1.4MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for September 2010 will be published on this website on Friday 1st October 2010 at 10am.

NZ Property Report – July 2010

Posted on: August 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The July 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of July. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The July 2010 report shows the first signs of some balancing within the market with new listings declining and a matching fall in asking price expectation. Both of these signals match to the reality that the property market is moving at a very slow pace in regard to sales and therefore for those needing to sell, pricing appropriately and marketing smartly are the only approach that can generate interest from what is clearly a reduced pool of buyers.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – July 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – July 2010

With the property market now firmly in the middle of winter the level of new listings coming onto the market has eased to a level expected of this quieter period of the year. For almost 9 months the flow of new listings has been at a level ahead of a year prior, but in July that trend was reversed. The net result of this steady flow of new listings for over 9 months is seen very clearly in the inventory levels. Measured on an equivalent number of weeks of sales the inventory of unsold houses across the country remains at high levels as compared to long term averages.

This strength of listings matched to the existing stock of unsold houses is challenging for property owners looking for buyers in what is a very slow paced market. In terms of sales of properties as reported by the REINZ the first 6 months of 2010 have seen just 29,844 sales; compared to 34,169 in the same 6 months of 2009 – a 12.7% decline.

It would appear that set against this market with high inventory and strong new listings sellers are heading the advice of real estate agents to price property to attract interest in the market which is what is driving these more competitive prices, down from $410,058 in June to $400,481 in July.

As has been commented on before the market situation between provincial and metropolitan NZ continues. In terms of new listings the 3 key metro areas saw an 11.6% decline in new listing in July compared to 2.3% increase for the sum total of provincial regions.

Asking Price

Asking price expectations of new listings coming onto the market fell significantly in July. From a peak of asking prices in March of $422,648 the truncated mean asking price has fallen to just $400,481 in 4 months.

This price represents a seasonally adjusted fall of 1.1% from June; it is also at the same levels as the month of July in both 2009 and 2008 signaling the softness in the market.

New Listings

The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell slightly from the June level of 11,106 to 10,586 in July. This represented a 2.3% decline when measured on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Over the 12 months to July 2010 a total of 145,733 new listings came onto the market. This compared with 134,378 in the prior period – an increase of 8.5%, on the same comparison property sales have at least kept pace up 8.1%

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of July totaled 52,404 up slightly from June. This represented the equivalent of 46.8 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory levels had been beginning to fall over the preceding two months, but this month saw a slight correction.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

The regional view of asking price changed significantly in July from both May and June. Asking prices have continued to ease with the scale of falls in some regions becoming quite marked as seen by the deep red colour in 5 of the 19 regions; these indicate falls of over 5% as compared to an average of the preceding 3 months – all are in provincial north island regions. Wairarapa with an asking price of $250,135 is the lowest reported over the past 3 years.

Asking prices did however firm across 3 regions – Queenstown lakes, Nelson and Gisborne. These South island regions also were regions that showed a more balanced market in both listings and inventory.

All of the 3 main metro areas showed easing in asking price most noticeable in Wellington and Canterbury, the latter showing a 4.6% fall from the 3 month average.

Regional Summary – New Listings

Whilst July levels of new listings were down just 1.7% compared to the prior month there was a turning point in the market. July was the first month this year to witness a decline on a –year-on-year basis; the last such month was back in October 2009.

Across the regions based purely on levels of new listings there were 8 regions of the 19 that saw falls indicating a switch from a buyer’s market to a seller’s market. Matched to these regions there were just 6 regions showing growth in listings with the Coromandel, Nelson and the West Coast recording listings growth of over 20%.

The Northland region recorded its lowest level of monthly listings at 399 since the beginning of 2007, down 5.7% compared to June and 3.2% below July 2009.

Regional Summary – Inventory

The indicative trend highlighted last month where there were a number of regions which were beginning to find a balance with less influence of buyers has taken a step backwards with the vast majority of regions back into a stronger position for buyers. Even the Nelson region which in June showed a modest sellers market has fallen back somewhat to a more balanced market.

In July of the 19 regions, all but 5 are showing a significant buyer’s market based on the current inventory as measured against long term averages.

The 3 regions of the country which are fairly well balanced with neither a buyers nor sellers market are regions with a heavy influence of lifestyle and potentially overseas interest – Queenstown, Nelson and the Coromandel.

Lifestyle Property

The flow of new listings for lifestyle properties continued to fall in July with just 833 new listings across the country, placing July amongst the lowest months going back to 2007. On a year-on-year comparison July was down 13.9%.

The asking price expectation also fell from $573,893 in June to $536,155 in July – a 2.3% fall as compared to the prior 3 months, but identical to July 2009. Significant price falls were seen in Gisborne, Canterbury, Marlborough, the Manawatu / Wanganui as well as the Wairarapa.

Apartments

The apartment market as judged by new listings seems flat with the past 3 months witnessing almost identical levels of new listings – 559 new ones in July. This represents a 23.7% decline from July 2009. Within the Auckland region where the majority of apartments are, new listings in July totaled 349, identical to June but down 35.5% as compared to a year earlier.

The asking price expectation of new apartment listings fell 7.7% in July as compares to the recent 3 month average at $357,616; this represented a 2.1% decline as compared to July 2009. For Auckland the asking price was $323,327 – down 8.3% compared to the recent 3 month average and down 5.5% as compared to July 2009.

Property Price Index

Notes:

Truncated mean

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

Background to Realestate.co.nz

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,o00 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 26,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,000 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,160 offices, the company represents over 94% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for June 2010 can be downloaded here (1.4MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for August 2010 will be published on this website on Wednesday 1st September 2010 at 10am.

NZ Property Report – June 2010

Posted on: July 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The June 2010 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of June. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

The summary view of the report for June 2010 is that the market continues to witness a confidence amongst sellers, who are keen to market their properties, and who despite the relative stock of property on the market signal at this stage no further easing of asking price expectation.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – June 2010 is published below and is available for download (1.4MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – June 2010

The property market continues to attract sellers, witnessed by the relatively strong level of new listings with 11,106 coming onto the market in June. This level is up 16% on the same month last year. At that time in June 2009 the market was experiencing a listings’ shortage as well-financed buyers where negotiating hard with sellers keen to offload their property as property prices had fallen through late 2008 and early 2009, and uncertainty surrounded the future direction of pricing in a market so accustomed to property price appreciation. This situation is best seen from the perspective of inventory levels – 35 weeks of equivalent sales volume on the market a year ago compared to 45 weeks today.

The asking price expectation has moved little in the past month following the more significant drop between April and May. At the time this was judged to be a pragmatic reaction by sellers eager to “meet the market” in price terms and seek to attract what continues to be a weak level of buyer activity. The truncated mean asking price for June at $410,058 would seem to indicate a staunch position taken by sellers as the revised level they judge to be the “market”, not requiring further adjustments down in price at this time.

As briefly commented upon in last month’s report the budget announcement in mid May regarding property investment had the potential to impact the supply side of the market in terms of new listings in June and July. Whilst the level of new listings in June was up on a seasonally adjusted basis, the asking price expectation change would not be seen as reflective of the impact of rental properties coming onto the market, as this would likely be seen to drag down the truncated mean price whereas the case was that the asking price level edged up in June.

Asking Price

Asking price expectations of new listings coming onto the market rose very slightly in June following the fall in May. This would seem to indicate that sellers recognise the need to price according to the market conditions which show little signs of appreciation.

As compared to a year ago the May 2009 the price was up marginally by 1.7%, however the truncated mean price for the month of June is still 4.4% below the peak of the market back in October 2007.

New Listings

The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in June to 11,106 – down 5% from May, however when the expected winter slow down is factored in with a seasonally adjusted factor the true state of the new listings market shows a 5% increase.

Over the 12 months to June 2010 a total of 145,920 new listings came onto the market. This was up 8% on the same 12 months to June 2009.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of June totaled 51,916 barely changed from the May total. This represented the equivalent of 45.3 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory levels are beginning to fall having risen to their peak in April at 51.6 weeks of equivalent sales.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

The asking price expectation of sellers in June reflected the current state of the market with only a marginal change following the fall in May.

Across the country the main view is that asking price expectation is coming under pressure with 11 of the 19 regions reporting asking prices which are below the recent 3 month average. The main metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury all showed an easing of asking price. There was a notable and significant increase in asking price in the Queenstown Lakes region from $523,760 to $642,710 coupled with a 29% increase in new listings.

Regional Summary – New Listings

As the regional map shows the overall sentiment of the market remains in the territory of a buyer’s market, a full 15 of the 19 regions are showing a year-on-year increase in new listings, with 10 regions posting increases of over 20%.

The larger regions of Auckland, Canterbury, Waikato and the Bay of Plenty all showed year- on-year increases of 10% or less, although the Wellington region bucked the trend with a 29% year-on-year increase in new listings.

Dividing the country up into metropolitan and provincial areas, the metro areas (3 key centers) are experiencing a lower rate of increase in new listings (+12%) as compared to provincial areas (+21%).

Regional Summary – Inventory

The picture of the regional property market is showing signs of changing. For most of the year- to-date the view of the market has been very clearly skewed to a strong buyers market. However as the chart shows there are some easing in the relative levels of inventory around the country.

The chart represents the actual inventory of unsold houses (measured in terms of equivalent number of weeks of sales) by region matched to the long term average (LTA) inventory level. An inventory level significantly higher than the LTA indicates a buyer’s market, with a figure significantly lower indicating a sellers market.

Whilst the predominant sentiment across the country is still to it being a buyer’s market; at this time 6 of the 19 regions are this month moving towards a more balanced market, with the Nelson region clearly bucking the trend with a bias to a seller’s market with inventory below the LTA, sales activity strong and asking price expectation steady.

Lifestyle Property

The steady flow of new listings of lifestyle properties appears to have stalled in June. Having seen 4 straight months with a similar level of c.1,100 listings the new volume of listings in June dropped by 18% to 945. A key contributor to this decline was the Auckland region where a 44% month-on-month decline was seen with just 195 lifestyle listings in the month. Matched to this was Canterbury region with a 32% decline from 147 to 100.

The asking price expectation of these listings though remains strong with an increase (month-on-month) of 14% to $573,893, however the sector does experience variance in asking price due to the sample set and diversity of properties.

Apartments

The number of new apartments coming onto the market in June remained pretty much in line with May with a total of 562 in the month. This represented an 18% year-on-year growth. Looking at the long term trend, the last 12 months has seen a 24% increase as compared to the prior period with the Auckland region as the largest market recording a 26% increase on a 12 month moving average basis.

The truncated mean asking price for the month was $367,216 which was down 5% on the most recent 3 month average and down 15% as compared to June last year. The Auckland region showed an asking price expectation of $331,958, down 6% on the recent 3 month average and 11% down on June last year.

Property Price Index

Comparing absolute house price sale data to listing price expectation is not a like-for-like comparison, however the alignment of trends can be useful as detailed below:

Notes:

Truncated mean

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

In analysing the details of the 11,106 new listings in the month of June, a total of 160 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 26,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,160 offices, the company represents over 94% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for July 2010 will be published on this website on Sunday 1st August 2010 at 10am.

NZ Property Report – May 2010

Posted on: June 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The fall in the asking price expectation of new listings coming onto the market in May (from $422,520 in April to $407,349 in May) would seem to indicate that the state of the market is driving a behaviour amongst new sellers to price property to meet-the-market. That is to say in this case given the high levels of inventory of unsold homes matched to sluggish property sales, something has to give and price is what has been adjusted. The sales figure for April from REINZ was 5,207 as compared to April 2009 at 6,210. This means that to achieve a secure sale in today’s market requires sellers to price at a competitive level relative to other similar properties on the market.

These statistics are detailed in the latest NZ Property Report for May 2010, published here and available as a downloadable report to print or distribute.

It is worth highlighting at this point that there is no evidence within the daily data of new listings coming onto the market that the asking price has been affected by any move as a result of the budget of May 20th. In fact new listings slowed considerably in the last week of the month and the truncated mean asking price of those listings was not significantly different from earlier in the month.

This report for May has a revised set of data for inventory. Following feedback from economists, the inventory data which is derived from the stock of unsold houses divided by the 3 month moving average sales figures from the Real Estate Institute has been adjusted to now reflect seasonally adjusted sales. This will ensure that inventory as measured in equivalent weeks-of-sales is now itself seasonally adjusted to better track the level of unsold homes on the market. All historical data in this report has been recalculated to reflect this change.

Asking Price

Property price expectations of new listings coming onto the market fell by 4% in the month of May as compared to April. Asking price has been volatile over the past 6 months which has also typified a quieter period of sales in the market; however since early 2009 asking price expectation has been trending upward.

As compared to May 2009 the price was up marginally by 1.5%, however the truncated mean price is still some 5% below the peak of the market back in October 2007.

New Listings

The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in May to 11,733 – down 4% from April, however the figure is up 17% as compared to the same period last year.

Whilst the month-on-month decline is consistent across the regions; underlying the national figures is a higher increase (year on year) in new listings in the 3 key metro markets.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of May totaled 51,980.This represented the equivalent of 46.9 weeks, as assessed on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The inventory of unsold homes had been rising steadily over the past 11 months, however for the first time the trend has halted. A key contributor to this has been the slowing in the pace of new listings coming onto the market, especially as property sales still remain sluggish.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

After a 3 month period through the summer and autumn when asking prices remained stubbornly fixed at the c.$420,000 level whilst inventory crept up and sales remained sluggish; the asking price has fallen by a significant level in May.

Of the 19 regions, 7 did show asking price increases, although these were outside the 3 main centres of which Auckland set the mood with a 2.5% fall in asking price as compared to the recent 3 month period. The increases of price in Wairarapa and West Coast should be taken cautiously as they are two of the smaller regions in terms of volumes of new listings. The significant falls in the regions of Northland, Coromandel and Nelson could reflect the seasonal changes with holiday accommodation changes at the end of summer, and in fact are reflective of similar falls this time last year.

Regional Summary – New Listings

Across the 19 regions of the country, listings showed significant increases in 7 areas with a further 4 posting double digit year-on-year growth. The main metro centres of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury all showed significant year-on-year increase. This is many ways more of a refection that a year ago the market was showing a resurgence as existing stock was being snapped up by bargain hunters, as falling prices had stimulated the market. This year no such activity has been seen.

There were some significant falls in new listings coming onto the market across the regions, mainly in provincial areas where certainly property sales have been more sluggish and where sellers may have been reluctant to enter the market.

Regional Summary – Inventory

The prevailing sentiment from the level of inventory of unsold houses remains clearly in the camp of property buyers having the upper hand in the market. Of the 19 regions just 3 showed any balance in the market, with only the Central Otago Lakes posting an inventory level lower than the long term average, indicating a slight shift to sellers being in the box seat in this region.

The data for May as with all data for inventory as noted previously has been adjusted to reflect seasonally adjusted sales which has removed some of the volatility extremes of inventory, and better represented true inventory.

Despite the clear view that the property market is currently firmly in the camp of a buyers markets as it has been for a number of months; there are regions of the country which with prevailing conditions remaining, will likely see a shift out of their market focus in the coming months. Of those regions the main ones will be Wellington and Taranaki, which are close to being a more balanced market with neither sellers nor buyers having the upper hand.

Lifestyle Property

A total of 1,146 new listings of lifestyle properties came onto the market in May. This is the fourth month with listings in excess of 1,100, all of which have represented strong year-on-year growth in listings.

The truncated mean asking price has though over the same period fallen significantly from a peak of $601,000 in January to the May figure of $504,557. This figure for May represents a 13% fall comparing the month to May 2009 and a 9% fall as compared to the recent 3 month average.

Within the total, the Auckland region featured strongly with 345 new listings up 64% on May 2009 with an asking price expectation exactly in line with the prior 3 months and prior year at $871,091.

Apartments

The number of new apartments fell again with just 560 coming onto the market in May. This however represents an 18% year-on-year increase, taking the levels back to 2008 market levels.

The truncated mean asking price was down 4% on the prior 3 months at $377,893 and down 5% as compared to May 2009.

As ever the Auckland market dominates the figures with a total of 367 new apartment listings coming onto the market, up 20% on May last year with an asking price expectation of $344,541 down 5% on prior 3 months and down 2% compared to last year.

Property Price Index

Comparing absolute house price sale data to listing price expectation is not a like-for-like comparison, however the alignment of trends can be useful as detailed below:

Realestate.co.nz: data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 94% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.

REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.

Notes:

Truncated mean

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

In analysing the details of the 11,733 new listings in the month of May, a total of 405 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The categorisation of Lifestyle property is defined by the land area of the property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned website providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the website comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%). The website is the most comprehensive website for real estate in NZ, currently hosting over 120,000 listings, covering residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,160 offices, the website features over 94% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. Realestate.co.nz was visited by over 401,000 unique browsers in the month of April from both domestic and international visitors. The website is the most popular website for international visitors enquiring of NZ real estate, with over 124,000 unique browsers in the month of April from more than 200 countries.

The full NZ Property Report for May 2010 can be downloaded here (1.4MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for June 2010 will be published on this website on Thursday 1st July 2010 at 10am.

NZ Property Report – April 2010

Posted on: May 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

blue pen and small house The level of new listings coming onto the market fell in the month of April on an actual basis by 15%, and on a seasonally adjusted basis by 6%. This has led to the arresting of the steady increase seen in inventory levels of unsold houses over the past 10 months. Clearly as a function of the level of new listings sellers seem confident to put their properties on the market.

These statistics are detailed in the latest NZ Property Report for April 2010, published here and available as a downloadable report.

The overall level of inventory of unsold homes remains high indicating that for the majority of the country a buyer’s market prevails, albeit with a trend beginning towards a balanced market.

The asking price expectation in April clearly signals that sellers keen to list their property show no signs of feeling that prices are moving significantly up or down; as for 3 months now this expectation has been fixed at around $420,000. The movement in the last few months has slowed to less than 1% bringing the year on year change to just 4%. This year on year change is less than the current annual price appreciation of 7% reported in the REINZ Stratified price for March.

Regionally the market in the main metropolitan centres continues at a faster pace than provincial NZ where there has been a noticeable slowing of new listings coming onto market which however has failed to impact inventory as sales in these areas are equally running at low levels.

Asking Price

Property price expectations of new listings coming onto the market barely moved in the past month. The truncated mean of the 12,225 listings added in the month was $422,520, this was unchanged against the most recent 3 month average and up just 4% as compared to April 2009. Overall asking prices have been creeping up for over 15 months from lows of $390,000.

New Listings

The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell in April in what is traditionally a quieter month. The 12,225 listings though still represent a 17% increase as compared to a year ago. At that time a year ago the property market was finding an active level of bargain hunters matched to a nervous range of sellers which resulted in a rapid decline in new listings and subsequent inventory.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of April totaled 53,123.This represented the equivalent of 46.5 weeks.

The inventory of unsold homes had been rising steadily over the past 10 months, however for the first time the trend has been reversed. A component of this is the seasonal trend which sees greater levels of new listings in summer vs. autumn.

At this time last year the inventory levels were at 42.5 weeks as at that time new listings were drying up as sellers were nervous of the threat of collapsing house prices.

Regional Summary – Asking Price Expectations

The change between March and April in terms of asking price expectation across the various regions is that whilst overall price movements nationally have hardly changed, there has been a variety of movements within the regions. Most of these movements are not significant in scale – most being less than 5% when viewed as current month compared to recent 3 month average.

Across the 19 regions, 5 showed increases of which the Coromandel was the largest with a 5.3% increase. 8 regions showed falls with the 7% decline in the Wairarapa the largest. The balance of 6 regions showed hardly any change in price.

Regional Summary – New Listings

Across the regions the trend of new listings coming onto the market indicates a view of a buyer’s market however there are changes from the month of March.

There were 3 regions in April which reported year on year listings decline for the month – Central North Island, Nelson and Manawatu / Wanganui; the latter 2 showing a significant decline of over 20%.

There still remain 8 of the 19 regions showing significant year on year growth in listings for the month including the main metropolitan centres. The largest increases were seen in Coromandel and Southland – both over 60%, with Wellington at 40% year on year increase. Auckland and Canterbury showed 22% and 26% increases respectively.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Inventory levels fell across all of the 19 regions with the sole exception of the West Coast which rose slightly to 162 weeks.

Whilst the inventory levels have fallen the vast majority of the regions are experiencing levels of inventory well above both long term average (2007-2009) as well as measured against the prior 12 month average.

The broad perspective is that for 15 of the regions across the country including all the main urban centres inventory levels place the market firmly in the camp of a buyer’s market with a good selection of properties available for interested buyers.

The region of the Coromandel is the only region that based on current inventory (154 weeks) is moving very slightly towards a sellers market. The comparable data is that for the Coromandel the average inventory over the past 3 years has been 173 weeks and over the past 12 months 188 weeks – the peak of inventory for the Coromandel was reached in December 2008 at 284 weeks.

Lifestyle Property

A total of 1,124 new listings of lifestyle properties came onto the market in April. This represented a 24% year on year increase. This level has remained strong over the past 3 months all of which have been well ahead of the same months a year ago.

At $567,101 the truncated mean asking price was down 2% on March and 3% down as compared to the recent 3 month average.

The largest rise in new listings was seen in the Bay of Plenty with 102 new listings, more than double the levels of April 2009

Apartments

The number of new apartments listed remained steady in April with 601 listed in the month. The overall level of new apartment listings is strong with a 48% year on year growth. In the first 4 months of this year 2,393 new apartment listings have come onto the market – a 35% increase over the same period last year

The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings at $416,986 was up 5.9% on the latest 3 month average, up 12% on prior year.

The Wellington market continues to see strong growth in listings with a further 108 listed in April taking the 4 months total for 2010 to 471 a 126% increase compared to 2009.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for May 2010 will be published on this website on Tuesday 1st June at 10am.

NZ Property Report – March 2010

Posted on: April 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

NZ Property Report - Realestate.co.nz The property market is very definitely in the defined state of a buyer’s market as witnessed by the key metrics of supply; being the available stock of unsold houses on the market and the number of new listings hitting the market.

In the first 3 months of 2010 a total of just under 40,000 new listings have been added to the market. The total stock of residential property for sale at the end of 2009 was 49,149. That has grown to 55,623 – an extra 6,500 properties on the market. The current average monthly sales total is just 4,551 over the past 3 months.

Closer analysis of the data shows that seasonally adjusted, the total of new listings in March was down 3.3% at 12,595. Compared to March last year which saw a seasonally adjusted total of 10,014, the latest monthly data clearly shows the extent of the new flood of listings searching for buyers.

Breaking the total down by region shows a more significant split between provincial and metropolitan NZ. The major centers of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury show a lower overall inventory level of unsold homes at 40 weeks as compared to 70 weeks for provincial NZ. Equally when looking at the new listings coming onto the market in March the total of new listings in provincial areas of the country actually rose in March up from 6,450 in February to 6,719. This level is the highest number of new listings for two years. The major metropolitan regions saw a 11% decline of new listings on a month-on-month basis with 7,689 new listings.

Asking Price

Property owners placing their homes on the market are clearly signaling the belief that property prices are rising. The first two months of this year when activity of new listings have reached highs, have been accompanies by month on month price expectation rises. The truncated mean asking price in March was $422,648 which is 4.2% up on March last year.

New Listings

The number of new listings coming onto the market in March; whilst down slightly on the February total, was still up 26% on the prior year. A year ago the scale of the inventory of unsold houses had begun to impact the confidence of new listings coming onto the market – indicating confidence by sellers to be able to find buyers and move onto to buy another property.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of February totaled 55,623.This represented the equivalent of 53.0 weeks.

The inventory of unsold homes has been rising steadily over the past 10 months, slowly at first then as the rate of sales has slowed the inventory levels have accelerated over the past 3 months going from 34 weeks on December to over 53 weeks in March.

At this time last year the inventory levels were on the way down having peaked at 56.9 weeks in February.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

The truncated mean asking price for all new listings coming onto the market in March rose again to $422,648, up 4.2% on February and representing a 0.9% increase on March 2009.

A key observation of the March data is that the variances in asking price across the regions of the country are considerably smaller than has been seen during the past year indicating less volatility. Within the total of 19 regions, 13 are recording an increase in March as compared to the latest 3 month average. Only one region came close to a double digit asking price change which was Central Otago / Lakes district which was down 9.8%, this was accompanying a rise in new listings with 350 in March up from 313 in February.

An interesting observation from the data is the Waikato region, which has consistently had an asking pricing in a very close range from $342,000 to $359,000 for over 12 months.

Regional Summary – New listings

The chart depicting the scale of new listing coming on the market in March across the country paints a clear picture of a strong buyers market with only one region showing a year-on-year decline in new listings – that being the Coromandel, down 39%.

The balance of the 19 regions all showed increase in new listings – 16 of them reporting year-on-year growth of more than 20% with the Gisborne showing the highest growth at 61% with Central North Island reporting 50% growth in new listings.

The total number of new listings added in the Gisborne region in the month at 153 was the largest recorded over the past 3 years. Equally the Bay of Plenty region saw 1,104 new listings up 20% on February and 33% up on March last year, the highest level of new listings in that region in the past 2 years.

Regional Summary – Inventory of unsold houses

Another leap in the inventory of unsold houses took the total to a level of 53.0 weeks of equivalent sales. This is now the second highest level of inventory seen over the past 3 years. The prior high of 56.9 weeks was in February last year – a time of major global economic fragility as consumer and business confidence tumbled.

The clear impact of this level of inventory is the clear image as portrayed by the adjacent chart which depicts a blanket state of a buyer’s market. The legend for this chart uses the measure of current inventory to long term (3 year) averages to represent a buyers or a sellers market.

Out of the 19 regions, 6 reported the highest level of inventory spanning back over the past 3 years. They were Manawatu / Wanganui, Northland, Otago, Southland, Taranaki and Waikato.

Lifestyle Property

A total of 1,106 new listings of lifestyle properties came onto the market in March. This represented an increase of 17% over March 2009, however reflective of the total residential sector the month saw a small fall from the February total of 1,133.

At $592,438 the truncated mean asking price was down 2% on February and in line with the latest 3 month average.

Across the regions, Canterbury saw a large number of newly listed lifestyle properties with 144 as compared to 134 last month and 113 in March last year. The mean asking price in the region was up 12% in the year to $581,236.

Apartments

The number of new apartments listed fell significantly in March with 613 in total, down from 747 in February. This does represent a year on year increase of 31%. In Auckland the number of new apartments did not show such a significant fall in the month down from 368 in February to 362 in March.

The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings at $390,211 was up 4.4% on the latest 3 month average, however 11% down on prior year.

A large number of new apartment listings in the Wellington region in February (217) was not repeated in March with a more normal level of 93 new apartments listed.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.5MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for April 2010 will be published on this website on Saturday 1st May at 10am.

NZ Property Report – February 2010

Posted on: March 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

NZ Property Report - Realestate.co.nz The industry has long been expecting a surge in new listings and February answered that call. However the timing is not ideal as these listings are hitting the market right at the time that sales volumes have gone soft. The last month of 2009 and the first month of 2010 surprised the market with particularly weak sales with both months showing long term lows of 4,957 and 3,666 respectively.

The month of February is traditionally a very strong month for new listings. Two years ago a record level of 18,700 listings came onto the market – at that time sales were beginning to weaken heading into the recession. Also at that time the inventory of unsold houses was beginning to rise from 34 weeks in Feb ’08 rising to a peak of 57 weeks a year later.

The rise in asking price to $419,015 puts price expectations back on an increasing trend and does reflect the traditional increase seen in February. Clearly sellers and their agents are confident that the pricing will find a willing buyer market at these levels; somewhat of a challenge given recent weakness in the stratified median sales prices as reported by the Real Estate Institute.

The key focus for the market is the inventory of unsold houses which at close to 12 months means that there is ample opportunity for buyers to evaluate the property that best suits their needs in what is clearly a buyer’s market.

Asking Price

The vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in February rose quite significantly from $405,040 to $419,015.

This price represented a 1.6% increase in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Nov/Dec/Jan).

The asking price of new listings in February last year was $413,337 representing a 1.4% year on year increase.

New Listings

The number of new listings coming onto the market in February rose sharply in what is traditionally a peak listings’ month. The volume represented a 47% increase on prior month and 24% year on year growth. It is also the highest single month for nearly 2 years.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of February totaled 54,381.This represented the equivalent of 48.2 weeks.

This very steep rise in inventory of unsold houses is the result of the combined effects of a surge in new listings and sluggish monthly sales over the past quarter. Whilst the current level is 15% below the level at the same time last year unless sales volumes pick up or listings dry up then inventory could continue to rise in the coming months – clearly signaling a buyer’s market.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

Whilst the national asking price expectation showed a rise in truncated mean from $405,040 to $419,015 the regional variances were quite significant with 11 regions showing increases set against the recent 3 month average and 8 regions showing falls.

The main metro areas showed only marginal variances of around 3% or less with Wellington just 1.1% down. In provincial areas significant falls were seen on Gisborne, Marlborough and the Central Otago / lakes region. In the latter region the asking price expectation of %28,137 was the second lowest in the past 12 months.

Significant rises were seen in Southland, Taranaki, Otago and the Hawkes Bay. For the Taranaki region the asking price of $335,423 is an all time high.

Regional Summary – New listings

The surge of listings nationally amounting to a 47% month on month growth was seen most significantly in a key number of regions.

Most significant was Wellington which has for so long been running on a shortage of new listings – the regions saw a surge with over 2,000 listings, a level not seen over the last few years. Matching that level of new listings was Canterbury with a 34% year on year rise.

Regions seeing a fall in year on year listings were Coromandel, Central Otago / Lakes and Northland.

Regional Summary – Inventory of unsold houses

The steep rise in inventory on a national basis in February was reflected across the majority of the 19 regions which in the main are clearly indicating a buyer’s market.

The only three regions which are seeing a level of inventory of unsold houses below long term averages were Auckland which now has 30 weeks of stock, The Hawkes Bay with 32 and Wellington with just 18 weeks. All of these regions inventory levels are over 30% down on the same period last year

The areas of the country where inventory is significantly above long term averages were Northland (160 weeks), Central North Island (115 weeks), Taranaki (29 weeks) and Marlborough (74 weeks).

Lifestyle Property

A healthy 30% increase in listings in February with 1,113 new lifestyle properties come onto the market with an asking price expectation of $601,220 which is 7.6% up on prior year and 1.2% up on the 3 month average

Regions of the country seeing significant increases in new listings of over double as compared to prior year were the Hawkes Bay, Wellington and Marlborough. Only Northland, Gisborne and the Coromandel saw year on year declines in new listings.

Apartments

The apartment market had a very strong month with 747 new listings – the highest overall level of new listings for 2 years. Very strong listings came through in the Bay of Plenty and Wellington both showing year on year growth of over 100%.

The asking price expectation of apartments for February was $374,503 which was almost identical to a year earlier and just 1% up on the prior 3 months. The asking price in Auckland was $335,861 which was almost identical to a year earlier, but 2.6% down the prior 3 months.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for March 2010 will be published on this website on Thursday 1st April at 10am.

NZ Property Report – January 2010

Posted on: February 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The NZ property market appears to continue to be in somewhat of a state of dormancy as judged from the new listings coming onto the market. This is also a reflection of somewhat subdued sales which whilst showing year-on-year growth are still lagging historical averages. Total sales for 2009 were just 69,629 up from the 2008 level of 56,128 but far from the mid 2000’s levels of 100,000.

January saw just 10,272 new listings coming onto the market; the first time in 4 years that the January figure has been lower than December. The start of the new year traditionally shows a strong lift in listings which seek to benefit from summer activity in the market. The 2010 year started with a 2% decline in new listings. However despite this signal of lower listings the trend is not as might have been expected towards a strong sellers market. The level of inventory of unsold homes on the market rose significantly in January to 40 weeks from the 34 weeks in December, this measure reflects the rate of sales which is running at a slower rate and therefore failing to clear inventory.

Supporting this position of a sluggish property market is the measure of asking price expectations which fell for the second month in a row from $412,319 in December to $405,040 in January, this is a sign of a market where sellers looking to transact in what is a quiet market are setting price expectation at realistic levels thereby ensuring that their property stands out in what is becoming a somewhat crowded market.

Asking Price

The vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in January fell by 1.8% from November to $405.040.

This price represented a 1.8% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Oct/Nov/Dec).

The asking price of new listings in January last year was $391,780 representing a 3.4% year on year increase.

New Listings

The number of new listings coming onto the market in January was just less than the total for December, despite the traditional strength of January as the summer season kicks into gear, this year a total of 10,272 as compared t0 10,349 in December.

Comparing January 2010 to January 2009 requires a note of caution as at that time the property market was suffering from the economic recession.

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of January totaled 52,817.This represented the equivalent of 40.1 weeks – this represents over 9 months worth of stock.

This rise in inventory whilst new listings appear to be so scarce brings into clear focus the sluggish level of sales over the final quarter of 2009.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

The overall trend of property price expectations as established by the listing price of properties coming onto the market in January was of falling prices. The national truncated mean asking price fell 1.8% from the month of December and 1.8% as compared to the recent 3 month average.

Of the 19 regions only 2 saw asking price rise – Wairarapa and Central Otago Lakes. The majority of the remainder posted falls of less than 5%, however Central North Island, West Coast and Taranaki all posted falls of more than 5%. Auckland fell 2.5% in the month contributing to a 5% slide since the November level of $543,522.

Regional Summary – New listings

The level of new listings in January was a modest 3% over the same month last year. This is significant as last year the scale of the economic recession was weighing very heavily on the property market.

Across the country the picture was varied with the main 3 centers posting year on year growth in listings, with Wellington showing a 12% increase.

Only two regions saw new listing lower than a year ago – Coromandel down 29% and Manawatu / Wanganui down 12%.

Significant increases over last year were seen in 7 regions – all posting 20% or more increase with the Hawkes Bay leading with a 58% increase.

Regional Summary – Inventory

The steep rise in inventory on a national basis in January was reflected across the majority of the 19 regions which in the main are clearly indicating a buyer’s market.

The areas of the country where inventory is significantly above long term averages were Northland (160 weeks), Central North Island (115 weeks), Taranaki (29 weeks) and Marlborough (74 weeks).

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle listings in January slumped from 995 in December to 869. Whilst this total represented a 12% increase as compared to January 2009, based on longer term historical data the expectation would have been to see a rise from December. The truncated mean asking price for lifestyle properties in January was $558,947 representing a fall of 9% as compared to December. Set against January 2009 the asking price was up 5%, but down 6% as against the recent 3month average.

The majority of regions showed declines in new listings with the exception of Coromandel, Canterbury and the West Coast all of which showed year on year increases of over 50%.

Apartments

As with the total and other sectors, the apartment market failed to spark into life in the new year. A total of 432 apartments were listed as compared to480 in December and 352 last January. This 10% month on month decline was largely a function of the rest of NZ as Auckland witnessed a 5% increase in listings with 251 being added to the market.

The truncated mean asking price fell 1% from the prior 3 month average. At $367,289 the asking price of January was 10% below the price a year ago and a fall of 3% as compared to December. These falls were reflected in the same scale within the Auckland market.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for February 2010 will be published on this website on Monday 1st March at 10am.

NZ Property Report – December 2009

Posted on: January 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report, Other interesting reads:

blue pen and small house December is traditionally a quieter month for new listings coming onto the market with a noticeable decline in activity after the middle of the month as property searching takes a back seat to Christmas focus. This behaviour markedly changes in the first week of January when searching starts again in earnest with the busiest time of year for online property search.

The calendar year 2009 saw the property market close with a continued subdued sentiment. The level of new listings for the year was down 17% on 2008 and 24% down on the 2007 year. This considerably lower number of listings has been matched by a slower year for sales. The level of property sales through the year remained subdued with the 12 month moving average to November being just under 69,000,whilst up on the year prior figure of 57,000; the long term average 12 months sales would be closer to 98,000.

The level of inventory fell in December to 34.3 weeks. The fall however is unlikely to reflect a tightening in the market at this stage as a possible indicator of an emerging sellers market, rather this statistic is more a reflection of the lower seasonal listings coming onto the market matched to the strong sales months preceding Christmas.

The key movement in what was a steady month for new listings was the easing of asking price expectation. The price fell back from what had been a noticeable spike 3 months ago when the asking price jumped by just over $20,000 in a month back in September leading into the Spring selling period.

Asking Price

The vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in December fell by 1.7% from November to $412,319.

This price represented a 1.7% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Sep/Oct/ Nov).

The asking price of new listings in November last year was $401,631 representing a 2.7% year on year increase.

New Listings

The number of new listings coming onto the market fell in December to 10,349, from the November total of 13,857.

The total of 2009 saw 135,416 new listings come onto the market. The calendar year 2008 saw 163,488, with 2007 with 177,529 clearly showing the quieter state of the property market.

Inventory

The overall level of available inventory as measured by equivalent weeks of sales slipped slightly in December from 36.0 in November to 34.3.

This fall is a common seasonal factor as December sees fewer new listings, whilst sales continue strongly for the first half of the month. A similar fall in inventory levels has been seen in each of the last 2 years of records.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

Whilst the national asking price expectation of vendors eased in December the total number of regions showing a fall represented only 7 of the 19 regions. The major influence of the 3 main centers however affected the overall picture with both Wellington and Canterbury down 2.6% and 2.5% respectively as compared to the recent 3 month average.

The Auckland market showed an easing of 1% down to $530,923 – this is still 3% below the peak of the property market in asking price terms back in October 2007 when the asking price was $547,163.

In provincial areas asking prices showed some significant increases with 6 regions having asking price increases over 5% as compared to 3 month averages with both the West Coast and Central North Island recording double digit increases.

Regional Summary – New listings

New listings were down in December as a function of seasonal factors. There were only 2 regions reporting listings lower than a year ago however. This overwhelming trend to year on year growth in listings across the country has more to do with the state of the market a year ago when the full economic impact was being felt in the property market with the fear of falling prices were negatively effecting buyer sentiment.

The majority of the increases in new listings are being seen outside of the main centers with Wellington and Canterbury showing very modest increases in listings and Auckland showing just 6% increase with 2,730 new listings.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Given the seasonal trend to reduced inventory across the country in December the overall market appears fairly balanced with 7 regions tipping towards a buyer’s market and 7 tipping towards a seller’s market.

The main 3 metropolitan areas continue to point to a stronger position for sellers with Auckland at 26 weeks inventory as compared to a 12 month avg. of 35m, Wellington at 16 vs. 12 month avg. of 21 and Canterbury at 26 vs. 12 month avg. of 31. Other notable areas shifting to a more sellers market is the Coromandel and area that has over the past year been a classic buyer’s market with inventory peaking at 284 weeks now down to a level of 146 well below long term average.

On the buyer’s market side Marlbourgh region has been seen steady increasing inventory levels now at 69 weeks compared to 12 month avg. of 52 weeks, similarly the Central North Island including Taupo sitting at 88 weeks up from 59 weeks 3 months ago.

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle listings in December were relatively strong based on seasonal expectation. A total of 995 new listings came onto the market with an asking price expectation of $614,951. The volume of listings was up 19% on December last year and the asking price was up1.9% on the recent 3 month average.

There were significant increases in new listings added in the Central North Island, Bay of Plenty, Northland, Wellington region; as well as Central Otago Lakes and Marlborough. Set against this were significantly lower new listings in Manawatu / Wanganui and Taranaki regions.

Apartments

The apartment market slowed in December with just 480 new listings coming onto the market representing a year on year growth of 7%, however a 25% fall from November. In the calendar year 2009 6,416 new apartment listings came onto the market as compared to 6,916 in 2008 and a staggering 8,470 in 2007 indicating that the apartment market remains subdued.

The asking price expectation for the new listings in December was $379,567 – this represents a 2% decline as compared to the 3 month average.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for January 2010 will be published on this website on Monday 1st February at 10am.

NZ Property Report – November 2009

Posted on: December 1st, 2009 | Filed in NZ Property Report

November tends to herald the last month for listing property prior to the Christmas break and this year shows the traditional seasonal rise in listings. However the steady growth in listings seen over the past 3 months have begun to outpace the rate of sales of property across the country leading to a further growth in inventory levels in November – taking the equivalent of stock on the market to 36 weeks.

That is to say, based on the current rate of sale, it would take 36 weeks (8.3 months) to clear all the stock. The lowest point of this property cycle was reached in June when inventory reached a low of 31.5 weeks (7.3 months) – since then it has grown for 5 successive months.

The current rate of sales of property from REINZ statistics shows a 12 month total (Nov 08 – Oct 09) of 67,197, this is up 10% on the prior 12 month period but down 31% when compared to the 12 months to October 2007.

This growth of inventory is not spread evenly across the country with the major centers seeing inventory falls whereas provincial NZ is where the significant inventory rises are being seen. The biggest rises are being seen in the Central North Island, Northland, Marlborough, Gisborne and Southland.

Asking Price

The vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in November grew slightly to $419,586.

This price represented a 1.9% rise in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Aug/Sep/Oct).

The asking price of new listings in November last year was $404,913 representing a 3.6% year on year increase.

New Listings

The number of new listings coming onto the market rose slightly to 13,857, from the October total of 13,550.

Despite the uplift in listings during November the level of new listings over the past 12 months continues to show a 11% fall with 147,813 new listings in the recent 12 months as compared to 165,690 in the prior 12 months spanning 2007/8.

Inventory

The overall level of available inventory as measured by equivalent weeks of sales grew again in November – the 5^th consecutive month of rise from 31.5 weeks in June to the current level of 36.0 weeks.

Whilst inventory tends to rise approaching Christmas the levels this year are up on the 33.9 weeks in 2007 but down on the extreme peak of 52.6 weeks in November last year – a time when property sales stagnated.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

The national mean asking price showed little movement in November from October as the stability of the market saw a level of vendor expectation being met by buyer demand. Overall there were 13 of the 19 regions showing increases with Gisborne registering the largest increase and Central North Island the biggest fall – both regions affected by small base of data.

The price rise in Auckland of 4.1% is a direct result of the tightness of the market with inventory levels remaining tight as the flow of new listings seems to be being met by a steady demand. The same inventory tightness in the other major centers of Wellington and Canterbury does not seem to be directly impacting asking price at this stage.

Regional Summary – listings

The pendulum has swing in the direction of a buyer’s market as the inventory of property on the market is being bolstered by rises in new listings which is meeting a steady, yet uninspiring sales level. Of the 19 regions round the country 10 are seeing degrees of buyers markets with positive year-on-year increases in listings.

The regions of Central North Island, Hawkes Bay, Taranaki and Nelson all saw rises of more than 20%. Only one region – the Wairarapa showed a significant fall of 59% as compared to November last year.

Wellington continues to see a low level of new listings, just 1,114 in November down 17% compared to last year.

Regional Summary – inventory

The regional make up of the market from an inventory perspective points to a growing buyers market with 11 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels as measured in weeks of equivalent sales running significantly above long term averages.

The only conspicuous regions reversing this trend are the 3 metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury all of which are showing inventory levels well below long term averages and well below the national average.

These major metropolitan regions are showing characteristics more akin to seller’s market and has prompted some to speculate an emerging property bubble. The breadth of data by reach region clearly refutes this assertion.

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle listing numbers remain constant over the past 3 months with 1,191 added in November. This represented an 8.1% increase on prior year. Over the past 12 months 11,561 new lifestyle listing have come onto the market a 16% lower amount than in the prior year 12 month period. Significantly lower listing have been seen in Marlborough and the West Coast over the past year both close to 50% down whilst Nelson and Bay of Plenty have seen growth – albeit less than 10%.

The truncated mean asking price for November was $608,616 a 2% increase on November last year and 4% up on the prior 3 month average.

Apartments

November saw 643 new apartments listings come onto the market, up a significant 27% on November last year, however well down on the peak of 2007 when 983 new listing were added in November. Over the past 12 months a total of 6,385 new apartment listings have come onto the market – down 8.5% on the prior 12 month period.

The Auckland market representing in November 59% of all new listings shows a small increase in listings on a 12 month rolling basis with 3,970 listings in the 12 month period. The truncated mean asking price nationally was $364,384 which was 6% down on the 3 month average – Auckland saw listing asking price down 8% at $323,307.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.8MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for December 2009 will be published on this blog on Friday 1st January at 10am.

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Archive for the ‘NZ Property Report’ Category

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