Other interesting reads: | Unconditional | What's really going on in realestate

Archive for the ‘Other interesting reads:’ Category

What is normal in the housing market?

Posted on: April 5th, 2010 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Other interesting reads:, REINZ Monthly data

iStock_000001558465Small Bernard Hickey wrote an interesting piece in the NZ Herald entitled “Abnormal the new norm“.

In it, he describes what he sees as a new normal in the property market borne of more stringent controls on banks by the Reserve Bank policy requiring more stable and longer-term sources of funding, with less reliance on “cheap hot money from overseas”. A consequence of this he believes will be a continued shift from fixed rate mortgages to variable rate mortgages. Currently 30% of mortgages are on variable rates – a trebling over the past 3 years. This shift will likely see a closer alignment of base rates to mortgage costs and therefore the impact on the property market.

Whilst I agree with the principle of what Bernard states in his piece, that we are unlikely to see what many had considered to be normal level of market activity in terms of price increases and strong sales as was witnessed over the period of 2005 to 2008; the important question is though, what is going to be this new true normal in the property market.

To assess this requires a view of the historical perspective on the NZ property market. Fortunately the data of the market is comprehensive going back to 1992 through data published by the Real Estate Institute. The data covers both sales volumes and median price. Whilst historical data of sales can provide insight to the future, when it comes to pricing as we have seen in the past 18 months – historical pricing trends are no forecaster of future trends, and it is a brave person to state whether property prices are going to rise or fall.

Looking for trends in historical sales data, the chart below tracks the historical property sales in NZ since 1992 measured as a percentage of all residential property in the market at the time. The key here is that in 1992 when the data began there were 1.18 million residential properties and annual sales at that time were 63,270. Over the course of the past 18 years the number of residential properties has grown to 1.55 million – an extra 370,000 properties.

However as the chart shows the percentage of all properties sold each month has varied greatly – peaking at over 0.75% in 2004 before falling to the recent lows of the past 2 years, well below long term average of 0.52% and barely half the level of 2004.

The key consideration here is what is likely to be the new norm for the property market. Bearing in mind the comments of Bernard Hickey the period of the mid 2000′s should be seen as abnormal. Interestingly though is the fact is that in the period of 2005 to 2008 the average sales as a percentage of all properties was 0.495% – below long term averages. In fact if you might consider the 1990′s fairly normal – during that period the average monthly sales represented 0.52% of all properties.

Based on these statistics it might be safe to call a normal market around 0.5% of all properties selling in a month. That ratio based on the current number of residential properties at 1.55 million would mean an average monthly sale of 7,727.

The last time the monthly sales of residential property in NZ exceeded this level of 7,727 was November 2007 – 27 months ago. The most recent 12 months of sales total just 69,390 properties an average of 0.37% of all properties per month.

The fact is that based on the current state of the property market sales would need to rise by 34% to just reach what we might call normal. To help provide some guide to recent sales levels as to how close to the new “normal” this market is the table below can be thought of as a ready reckoner. If 2010 was a new normal year (ie 0.5% sales per month) then these are the monthly sales we should be expecting to see.

NZ property market - a new normal, how sales should look

Clearly this year, just two months in, is showing we are no where near a normal sales level – in fact with only 8,695 sales in the first two months this market is 43% behind the mark. The latest sales for March will be published on the 16th April and it will be interesting to see how they look as compared to a normal market.

Technology is the key to the future of real estate

Posted on: February 5th, 2010 | Filed in Agent Tips, Other interesting reads:, Technology

I have taken a week or so following my attendance at the Inman Connect Conference in New York earlier last month. In this time I have collated my thoughts around the conference to share these here now.

As has become traditional with Inman Connect conferences of the past couple of years there is usually a single takeaway that I carry with me as I return to NZ from attending these events.

In 2007 at my first conference the takeaway was social media and the emergence of blogs; 2008 was the rise of Facebook and Twitter as platforms for real estate conversations; 2009 was all about data and a growing transparency for the real estate industry – agents embracing the concept of consumer review and critique of the performance metrics of the industry.

For 2010 the takeaway was mobile – mobile as in real time, location based, real estate data, accessible on portable devices.

Mobile computing came of age in 2009.

With more than 75 million iPhones sold and a growing collection of alternative smart phones, most significant of which is undoubtedly Google’s new entrance through the Android mobile operating system and now the Nexus One, it is very clear to see that we are on the fast accelerating adoption curve where we will see many hundreds of millions of new generation smart phones purchased in the coming months and years. All of these devices are in fact far more mobile computers that just happen to provide voice communication rather than phones in the sense of what we have been using for two decades to make mobile calls.

The future as Brad Inman (the conference host and owner of Inman News) said in summing up the conference; the future is very clear and bright (and profitable) for those agents who understand and leverage the technology revolution in this industry that began at the start of this last decade and in some ways is now really hitting its stride. The great quote I often use in many presentations I do is from an Australian real estate conference of a couple of years ago “Agents will not be replaced by technology – they will be replaced by agents with technology” it just keeps on resonating as so relevant, so true.

The Connect conference is structured to provide a rich mix of technology and real estate business discussions and debates. The origin of the name came from the concept of the place where real estate and technology “connected”. It is featured packed, somewhat frenetic in nature and very much a smorgasbord of discussion groups and break out sessions as well as short – but pithy keynote presentations as well as lots of valuable takeaway ideas and initiatives.

Here then is a smorgasbord of takeaways, which caught my attention during the conference:

More and more agents are confidently stating that print advertising has lost all relevance and now all of their focus is on the web, this even lead in one session to the heated quote from a prominent New York agent “print never sold properties”. The move online is not just for advertising properties but also for profiling agents as part of marketing themselves – their brand.
The appeal of the iPhone and the development of the apps store replete with real estate apps has developed a culture and unique behaviour particularly on a Saturday as witnessed by massive spikes in traffic to these apps when “soccer mums” seek out local open homes to check out after the kids sports event – this behaviour has now become a phenomenon which is contributing to a noticeable rise in open home visits driven by the real time location based data.
Google was a much talked about subject and the conference provided a platform for the company’s real estate representative to share the company’s plans. Needless to say not a lot was shared except to recognise the value that Google saw in liberating real estate data. They refused to be drawn as to any potential acquisition to enhance their already released map based search. As ever with Google they are undoubtedly the smartest guys in the room. They have very clear views and plans and they have massive resources. They will roll out new functionality to enhance basic search, it will be disruptive, it will provide opportunities for them to sell more advertising and more and more of these adverts will be bought by real estate companies and agents. Google are here to stay, and real estate for them is a key agenda item.
Video as a complement to image based property presentation always represents a component of these conferences. Whilst the technology is improving in leaps and bounds the limitation and appeal is as ever down to the capability and professionalism behind the camera. The percentage of all listings with a video is increasing; but in reality it still represents a small percentage and always will. Buyers are looking for speed and efficiency at the early stage of search – video is just not conducive as a medium to this process.
There were a couple of sessions during the conference titled and focused on challenges to reinvent the real estate brokerage model. This included a panel of key leaders in the industry. Having sat in the breakout sessions and the main panel, I have to confess I was particularly unimpressed by the level of innovation. There was a sense of the same model with just a new set of clothes. There were plenty of good words – such as accountability, transparency, ethics, and personal service. Lots of plans to leverage social media and engage with clients, but through it all; it was the same model – advertise and farm for vendor (and buyer) leads, advertise everywhere, manage leads and negotiate sale for a % of the selling price. The question in the back of my mind was:
* Is the current model broken” – answer “No!” (Or at least not significantly broken)
* Is their scope for innovation and significant differentiation in business model – answer “Surely must be!”
An excellent session was a “start-up alley” of new technology companies offering services to the real estate industry. This was the chance for these new companies to share with the attendees their pitch for their company and for the audience to vote for the concept most likely to succeed – which they would most likely invest in. These were all companies, which were largely operating, and at this time many of which were self financed
I was impressed at the diversity and innovation; they covered the range from agent business applications to online media sales to neighbourhood social – the winner being in the latter category NabeWise aiming to create social commentary around neighbourhoods.
As ever the conference has the usual heated debates and literal stand-offs, a classic of the last day was the ubiquitous debate around the structure, value, longevity and relevance of the USA’s unique MLS structure (that is the central Multiple Listing Service) – central is actually the wrong word as there are over 800 MLS’s covering the country and all are largely built as proprietary fiefdoms who to my naive and non-US eyes and ears exemplify the analogy of the buggy maker at the turn of the century as the motor car drove into town.

As a fellow conference attendee shared his thoughts with me during the conference – this is such a valuable engagement with like-minded people, a sense of reinforcement, substantiation and affirmation that in spite of the fact that we may operate in a market of just 4 million people – a tiny fraction of the business scale of Europe and the US we can share, learn, contribute and gain so much to ensure we are constantly challenges to deliver unique and valuable service

Returning to the key takeaway again of mobile as the technological catalyst most likely to impact this industry, it is interesting to speculate as to the landscape of real estate a year or two from now. Whilst the adoption and integration of mobile enabled capabilities within the agent community is uncertain, sitting as I do running a consumer website to assist buyer find their dream home I can very clearly see the future for property seekers as they become mobile enabled with real estate data. More data, more accessible, helping buyers and sellers to make better-informed decisions.

Asking price expectations : market impact or regulatory impact

Posted on: January 22nd, 2010 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Money Matters, Other interesting reads:

The December NZ Property Report featured here on Unconditional on New Year’s day highlighted that between November and December the asking price expectation of properties in NZ fell by 1.7% to $412,319. This fall had come off the back of a couple of stable months of price expectation.

At the time of writing that report, the assumption behind this decline in asking price was that the market was adjusting prices as a result of somewhat flat demand. This fall in demand was being seen in the much softer sales volumes through the last quarter of the year.

However another explanation for this decline was brought to my attention by Steve Taylor an agent in Christchurch who is a regular writer of a local real estate blog – Doctor’n the House.

His recent post “Why has asking price gone down?” highlighted the fact that with the commencement of the new legislation (Real Estate Agents Act 2008) real estate licensed sales people now have a legal obligation to provide a written appraisal for every house they propose to list on behalf of the owner. This appraisal needs to include an estimated market price of the property.

Whilst this change is in itself not vastly different from prior practices whereby a price level would have been discussed between agent and vendor – the view which Steve highlights and I tend to agree with is that this universal requirement is potentially driving a more accountable responsibility on the part of the sales agent to market the property at a price which is judged to be the market price.

Clearly the enactment of this requirement of the new Act has only been in operation for 8 weeks so it will be very interesting to see the coming months for signs of the movement in asking price of properties coming onto the market.

A significant decade for real estate closes – the future will be challenging

Posted on: January 20th, 2010 | Filed in Online marketing, Other interesting reads:, Real Estate Industry

The last 10 years witnessed some incredible highs and lows in NZ real estate – at its peak in the month of March 2005 houses were being sold at the rate of 368 a day – that is close to 33 an hour. At the other extreme in January 2009 sales stalled to a low of just 3,706 – a daily rate of just 120.

In pricing terms the decade started with an average NZ home costing $174,850 – in today’s money that would equate to $222,411. By the end of the decade that average NZ home cost $369,825 a rise of 66% over the decade. If you had decided to sell in that house in November 2007 when the market peaked then that house would have seen an inflation adjusted rise of 77% from the start of the decade.

At the start of 2000 the process of searching for a home likely involved a meeting with an agent early in the process as access to information as to what was on the market very much resided in their offices. The internet was used for property search but not as the primary means. Back in January 2000 there was only one website aggregating listings from various sources RealENZ (the predecessor of Realestate.co.nz) – the monthly traffic to the site was around 60,000 visitors as probably less than 20% of buyers used the web.

In January 2010 78% of buyers turn to the web first when searching for real estate and the monthly audience for all monitored websites is over 1,300,000 unique visitors. This has largely placed the task of searching firmly in the hands of buyers with a vast amount of additional information accessible to educate and inform buyers mostly thanks to Google and their ability to organise the world’s collective knowledge and make it universally accessible.

So as we start this new decade and consider how the industry will change in the next 10 years I was prompted to share the following summary from Brad Inman written as the introduction to last week’s Real Estate Connect Conference held in New York attended by over 1,800 delegates from around the world. Brad is highly respected in the industry as the publisher of Inman News and a knowledgeable and insightful observer of the industry.

“The first decade of the new century ended last month. What began in a boom and ended in a bust, the real estate market, is slowly coming alive. Along the road to recovery is a raft of innovation that has enabled the smart and technology savvy real estate agent/broker to survive. Combine the technology transformation with a revived market and change will accelerate dramatically in the coming 24 months.

Think of these changes in phases. Phase one included a greater number of steps in the home buying and selling process being digitized and automated, allowing consumers to more intelligently navigate real estate deals. In addition, the Internet has enabled home buyers through maps, search, AVM’s and MLS data (US centralised Multiple Listing Service) to structure their own home hunt, in one way relieving the agent/broker but reshaping their world along the way.

Because of technology, consumer needs are changing, and smart agents are transforming their business practices to focus on these new expectations. Technology – communication and information delivery – has become a central part of the services that home buyers and sellers expect and that savvy agents are providing.

Instant online real estate intelligence will be the next big change as consumers rely more on rich live data feeds, social media and local metrics to make house buying and selling decisions.

These innovations will change the role of the agent and the broker again. At one time, the listing data was perceived as the central value proposition of the industry, but that has changed with ubiquitous listing data. Then the agent became more of a counselor, teacher and advisor, which will evolve as Internet real estate intel becomes more sophisticated and matures.

In the future the role of the agent will be to focus on the gnarly often confusing transaction and direct and move it along. Smart agents are using technology to make that process easier and less confusing for their customers. The agents with the best technology will find and close more deals online and dwarf their slower-to-adopt competitors. Thanks to technology adoption, their business will scale and they will capture greater market share by closing more deal efficiently”.

Latest property data shows weakness in sales numbers

Posted on: January 19th, 2010 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Other interesting reads:, REINZ Monthly data

The statistics released by the Real Estate Institute (REINZ) yesterday focused on the record median price – $360,000 – stating in the article:

“Real Estate Institute of New Zealand President Peter McDonald says it’s an appreciating market fuelled by a shortage of properties for sale but is looking optimistic for 2010″.

The other half of the story relates to property sales number which were 4,957 in the month – these sales figures are the 3rd lowest in the last ten years for December which is naturally a quiet selling month. The best December ever was back in 2003 when 8,669 properties were sold.

The more concerning fact behind the numbers is that through the last 6 months; year on year comparative monthly sales have been steadily building on the very low sales base of 2008. Through the period from April to November the volumes compared to 2008 was averaging increases of 40%. In September sales were up 44%. However the December sales at 4,957 was only up 15%.

What is more concerning is that a year ago we were experiencing the low point of sales volumes as a result of the global economic recession and the slow down of the NZ property market. This was acute in the 3 month period of November, December and January last year. So in theory we should have seen a sales volume in December more of the order of 5,500 rather than 4,957.

The reasoning behind this view is seasonality. December is on average 7.3% of all annual sales just as November is a bigger month representing 9.1% of annual sales on average. Taking the last 6 months of seasonally adjusted sales prior to the December figures the calculations were all pointing to a total annual sales for the whole of 2009 of 75,000.

The input of the December stats resulted in the total for calendar year 2009 of just 69,629 just 24% up on the all time low of 2008 of 56,128.

To provide a view and perspective of the current sales volumes the graph below tracks the seasonally adjusted 12 month moving average sales volumes over the past 5 years. The key periods of the market have been highlighted to bring clarity to the market movements.

The strong sales period – through 2005 and 2006 with sales in excess of 100,000 per 12 month moving average
The downturn which started midway through 2007, bottoming out in March 2008
The flat period through most of 2008 averaging just 55,000 per 12 month moving average
The Spurt of activity in the first half of 2009 before what has been another leveling off leaving sales at this 70,000 12 month moving average level, before the recent fall off over the past quarter relative to seasonal averages.

Just for clarification this chart is developed by weighting each months actual sales to the seasonal average representation, with the average based on the period 1992 to 2009. So for example taking December 2009 with 4,957 sales – December on average represents 7.3% of all sales of a year therefore in theory this sales volume for December would extrapolate to a 12 month equivalent sales volume of 68,084 sales

Some genuine home truths about home buying

Posted on: January 17th, 2010 | Filed in Agent Tips, Buying / Selling a home, Online marketing, Other interesting reads:

If there is one thing more certain in NZ these days than the latest political scandal or sporting event, it is the view people have to real estate and the purchase of a property.

It is so true that everyone has an opinion and every opinion is the polar opposite of everybody else’s!

It was with this in mind that my eye was caught by a great blog post by Jane Yee, who writes on Stuff.co.nz. Jane is a classic Gen X / Gen Y and her life is played out through her regular blog entitled the “Girls Guide”. Now there are two really important things to reflect on at this stage (i) Jane is of the age that most people start to buy property, and (ii) Jane writes from a woman’s perspective which is as is well known very much the influential voice in real estate transactions in the case of couples.

Her most recent post “Real Estate, Everyone’s and expert” is one of the clearest perspectives I have read on the consumer psyche of buying or searching for property I have ever read. It should be mandatory reading for anyone in the real estate industry. Added to Jane’s excellent prose is over 60 comments from “people like her” that further add to the richness. I really urge everyone to read and comment.

By way of dissection, below I have distilled what I consider to be the key takeaways I see as pivotal to the process – valuable sources of focus for ambitious operators in this industry.

Buying a home despite what many believe it to be is not always a rental investment property. Many people just want to satisfy their emotional desire to own a home – it is also a great form of forced savings
The process of house hunting is time consuming, enormously time consuming involving – daily review of listings (I clearly need to introduce Jane to Realestate.co.nz as well as Trade Me, after all Realestate.co.nz does feature a more complete view of whats on the market), as well as weekend open homes
The activity is very much a self managed exercise.
Everyone has an opinion / piece of advice. At the end of the day the collective wisdom as represented by the comments is that you have to make that decision yourself and accept the implications.
Your key partner in the process seem to be the mortgage broker rather than the real estate agent
Unfortunately real estate agents tend to be seen (and demonstrate the behaviour) of being seen as purveyors of other people’s listings
There are huge emotions involved in real estate process – the heartache of missing out, matched to the desire to find just the right place
Home buying has a benefit in a sense of control, something that can not be attained through renting and therefore financial comparisons are not always relevant

Out of date information on web listings damages agent reputation

Posted on: January 11th, 2010 | Filed in Agent Tips, Online marketing, Other interesting reads:

The Christmas and New Year period is a time of year to relax and unwind. For the real estate industry it is the calm before the storm as January tends to be a hectic time of house hunting – certainly judging by traffic to real estate website which sees the highest level of visitors over the next few weeks.

With this backdrop it does surprise me and to be honest frustrate me that some in this industry omit to update information of their listings on the web over this critical period. Let me explain my frustration.

Just yesterday my wife and I decided that we were keen to explore the idea of a new house for this new year. Scanning the web we found some interesting properties – we narrowed it down to 2 properties. One property contained within the details on realestate.co.nz the fact that the property had an open home 1pm to 1.45pm Saturday and Sunday. So eager to enjoy a beautiful day to view a prospective property we drove round to find a deserted house – no open home, no real estate agent!

Now I know exactly why this situation arose. The house in question was listed at the end of November and on the for sale board in the street it actually said “Deadline for offers – 17 December”. So there was clearly no intention for the property to be an open home on the 10th January. But why had the website not been updated !!

But image for a minute that I was not involved in this industry – maybe I am moving to Auckland or NZ and am in the city and want to find a house – I rely on the web (why shouldn’t I, it is the most comprehensive source of property information). To me this house should have been open for viewing yesterday – or else the details on the listing should have been amended.

I should not have to rely on calling an agent or picking up a paper – the web should be and must be the most complete, accurate and up to date source of information of properties for sale – not a forgotten archive of what was listed day, weeks or months ago. Real estate is a service business and the service this agent left me experiencing was one that would not encourage me to use them in the future or to recommend them.

So a New Year wish from me to the real estate industry – please look at the web this year and from now on, as the live picture of your listings – update them, review them and in so doing help people like me who want to buy a property to use it to make my life easy.

NZ Property Report – December 2009

Posted on: January 1st, 2010 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report, Other interesting reads:

blue pen and small house December is traditionally a quieter month for new listings coming onto the market with a noticeable decline in activity after the middle of the month as property searching takes a back seat to Christmas focus. This behaviour markedly changes in the first week of January when searching starts again in earnest with the busiest time of year for online property search.

The calendar year 2009 saw the property market close with a continued subdued sentiment. The level of new listings for the year was down 17% on 2008 and 24% down on the 2007 year. This considerably lower number of listings has been matched by a slower year for sales. The level of property sales through the year remained subdued with the 12 month moving average to November being just under 69,000,whilst up on the year prior figure of 57,000; the long term average 12 months sales would be closer to 98,000.

The level of inventory fell in December to 34.3 weeks. The fall however is unlikely to reflect a tightening in the market at this stage as a possible indicator of an emerging sellers market, rather this statistic is more a reflection of the lower seasonal listings coming onto the market matched to the strong sales months preceding Christmas.

The key movement in what was a steady month for new listings was the easing of asking price expectation. The price fell back from what had been a noticeable spike 3 months ago when the asking price jumped by just over $20,000 in a month back in September leading into the Spring selling period.

Asking Price

The vendor’s expectation of asking price for properties coming onto the market in December fell by 1.7% from November to $412,319.

This price represented a 1.7% fall in asking price when compared to the moving average of the past 3 months (Sep/Oct/ Nov).

The asking price of new listings in November last year was $401,631 representing a 2.7% year on year increase.

New Listings

The number of new listings coming onto the market fell in December to 10,349, from the November total of 13,857.

The total of 2009 saw 135,416 new listings come onto the market. The calendar year 2008 saw 163,488, with 2007 with 177,529 clearly showing the quieter state of the property market.

Inventory

The overall level of available inventory as measured by equivalent weeks of sales slipped slightly in December from 36.0 in November to 34.3.

This fall is a common seasonal factor as December sees fewer new listings, whilst sales continue strongly for the first half of the month. A similar fall in inventory levels has been seen in each of the last 2 years of records.

Regional Summary – Asking price expectation

Whilst the national asking price expectation of vendors eased in December the total number of regions showing a fall represented only 7 of the 19 regions. The major influence of the 3 main centers however affected the overall picture with both Wellington and Canterbury down 2.6% and 2.5% respectively as compared to the recent 3 month average.

The Auckland market showed an easing of 1% down to $530,923 – this is still 3% below the peak of the property market in asking price terms back in October 2007 when the asking price was $547,163.

In provincial areas asking prices showed some significant increases with 6 regions having asking price increases over 5% as compared to 3 month averages with both the West Coast and Central North Island recording double digit increases.

Regional Summary – New listings

New listings were down in December as a function of seasonal factors. There were only 2 regions reporting listings lower than a year ago however. This overwhelming trend to year on year growth in listings across the country has more to do with the state of the market a year ago when the full economic impact was being felt in the property market with the fear of falling prices were negatively effecting buyer sentiment.

The majority of the increases in new listings are being seen outside of the main centers with Wellington and Canterbury showing very modest increases in listings and Auckland showing just 6% increase with 2,730 new listings.

Regional Summary – Inventory

Given the seasonal trend to reduced inventory across the country in December the overall market appears fairly balanced with 7 regions tipping towards a buyer’s market and 7 tipping towards a seller’s market.

The main 3 metropolitan areas continue to point to a stronger position for sellers with Auckland at 26 weeks inventory as compared to a 12 month avg. of 35m, Wellington at 16 vs. 12 month avg. of 21 and Canterbury at 26 vs. 12 month avg. of 31. Other notable areas shifting to a more sellers market is the Coromandel and area that has over the past year been a classic buyer’s market with inventory peaking at 284 weeks now down to a level of 146 well below long term average.

On the buyer’s market side Marlbourgh region has been seen steady increasing inventory levels now at 69 weeks compared to 12 month avg. of 52 weeks, similarly the Central North Island including Taupo sitting at 88 weeks up from 59 weeks 3 months ago.

Lifestyle Property

Lifestyle listings in December were relatively strong based on seasonal expectation. A total of 995 new listings came onto the market with an asking price expectation of $614,951. The volume of listings was up 19% on December last year and the asking price was up1.9% on the recent 3 month average.

There were significant increases in new listings added in the Central North Island, Bay of Plenty, Northland, Wellington region; as well as Central Otago Lakes and Marlborough. Set against this were significantly lower new listings in Manawatu / Wanganui and Taranaki regions.

Apartments

The apartment market slowed in December with just 480 new listings coming onto the market representing a year on year growth of 7%, however a 25% fall from November. In the calendar year 2009 6,416 new apartment listings came onto the market as compared to 6,916 in 2008 and a staggering 8,470 in 2007 indicating that the apartment market remains subdued.

The asking price expectation for the new listings in December was $379,567 – this represents a 2% decline as compared to the 3 month average.

The full report can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed by attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for January 2010 will be published on this website on Monday 1st February at 10am.

Mortgagee properties – more than just statistics

Posted on: December 14th, 2009 | Filed in Other interesting reads:, Website searching

The detailed article in the Herald on Sunday by Andrea Milner did what all good reporting should do – provide the human touch. That in many ways differentiates the blogger from the journalist.

Whilst I have at my finger tips the data that provides insights and trends to provide models of where real estate markets are headed (or to to be more accurate – where they have come from!), a good journalist has the expertise and experience to bond together the facts with the emotion to provide a compelling sense of empathetic attachment.

That is where the traditional world of journalists and the new world of social media can coalesce and mutually benefit irrespective of the medium (print or online).

Anyway back to mortgagee statistics. The situation as the article represents is that the scale of searching for the keyword of mortgagee has tailed off during the year as the chart below represents. The red line tracks the number of searches on the word mortgagee each week since early 2008 (tracked on the left hand axis). The blue area represents the weekly level of listings on the site of mortgagee properties (tracked on the right hand axis).

The extreme peaks of searching which at one point totaled 3,500 per week; amounting to close to a third of all keyword searches has now receded to a level of around 1 search in every 14 is for mortgagee properties.

As for inventory of mortgagee properties. The level has remained fairly stable through this year with some recent fall as we head towards Christmas. The reality is that mortgage repossessions are still occurring – in fact almost as many are being listed as are being sold which is good for the market, as a healthy turnover indicates a steady sales market for property overall. The likelihood is that through 2010 these numbers will begin to fall; however the fact is that mortgagee properties are typically an indicator that lags the more positive trends of economic performance and consumer confidence.

It is worth just confirming that as mortgagee properties are not a defined category of listing submitted to realestate.co.nz the means that the only way in which people find such listings is by typing in the keyword or keywords into the search box.

The data of listings using this term is collated using the same method with the filter undertaken manually to remove any listings that have used the word mortgagee to deliberately capture interest for properties that are not being sold on behalf of the mortgagor. Examples being headlines such as “As cheap as a mortgagee property”.

Auckland property – facts on the state of the market

Posted on: December 4th, 2009 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Media commmentary, Other interesting reads:, REINZ Monthly data

istock_000006996157xsmall Recent data published in the media seems to be pointing to a impending bubble in the Auckland market – described in the NZ Herald as “a bubble that will burst and cause a painful property recession”.

I confess that our own NZ Property report for November contained a component of this speculation stating as it did that

The price rise in Auckland (asking price expectation) of 4.1% (Nov ’09 vs. 3 month average) is a direct result of the tightness of the market with inventory levels remaining tight as the flow of new listings seems to be being met by a steady demand

As ever any analysis of a market in order to be able to establish trends requires access to the most comprehensive data. It is appropriate to gather this data and undertake some detailed analysis.

The chosen data I have analysed for the Auckland region is the REINZ sales figures and the new REINZ / Reserve Bank Stratified House price index. Both of these sets of data are geographically defined as being the compete Auckland Region comprising the current 7 local authorities. The sales data is sourced from all of the licensed real estate offices selling properties which are in this region.

To this data I have analysed the realestate.co.nz data of property listings which uses the same geographical boundaries as the REINZ data and is compiled from the listings of licensed real estate offices for properties listed in the region. The website is the most comprehensive source of property listings of real estate agents with over 94% of all offices loading listings to the website.

As a point of note the NZ Herald article made its assertion based on data from Barfoot & Thompson sales data as representative of the Auckland market. There is potentially some error in this assumption as B&T operate extensively in Auckland as well as Northland and down through the middle of the North Island – of the current 7,568 listings on their website 17% (1,322) are for properties outside of the Auckland region.

Taking sales data first. The fact is that sales in Auckland are back from the extreme lows of 2008. At that time average monthly sales were around 1,406, the most recent 6 months in Auckland have seen an average of 2,059 up 46%; however the average through 2007 (albeit clearly recognised as a heady peak of the market) was 2,537.

The chart below details sales over the last 3 years with the respective months of Aug / Sep / Oct / highlighted in red. The key thing to note is how the sales level appears to be relatively stable over the period since March 2009 at a consistent level similar to 2008 albeit 50% higher.

Turning to pricing which is naturally the key concern to most people as most people only want to buy or sell one house.

The Real Estate Institute have with the assistance of the Reserve Bank produced a very credible Stratified House Price Index which stands up to the extreme scrutiny of economists and academics as it is not impacted by the externalities that affect average or median price as a function of the performance of house sales within differing price bands.

The data for this House Price Index goes back to 1992 and the Auckland data is presented in the chart below:

The striking rise through the last decade is most evident from the graph as is the fall from the peak and the subsequent resurgence. However what is also very clear from the graph is the fact that using this credible house price index the market price in Auckland has not as yet returned to the peak level seen in July 2007 – the current price index is still 5.8% below the peak.

In terms of actual stratified median price from the same data the current (Oct 09) price in Auckland is $480,510 and the peak in July 2007 was $510,197. This does contradict the article which stated that Auckland prices had “recovered all the losses experienced over the past two years“.

It is useful to match side by side the sales across the Auckland region with the sale price as the chart below does. There is a recognised fact, in that prices tend to follow sales volume trends and the rise and subsequent decline in volumes and price through 2007 and into 2008 would attest to that, as would the volume rise and price rise in early 2009. The key issue now though is the trend of price rises extending whilst sales volumes have moderated – this could foretell a softening of prices in the coming months.

As a further support to the view that the Auckland market is stabilising and not about to create an inflated bubble is the additional data set of listings. The chart below tracks the number of new listings added in the market in the Auckland region matched to sales. What is interesting is how conspicuous is the rising level of new listings which is leaving a fair gap from the monthly sales – this would indicate that the market has a growing stock of houses for keen buyers.

A growing inventory of new listings takes pressure off prices and buyers feel less pressured to have to “grab a property” in the fear of missing out which was the symptom so conspicuously seen back in the peak of the bubble through 2006 & 2007.

Overall I believe that in analysing this comprehensive and robust set of data there is more than enough evidence to take the view that the Auckland market is fairly well balanced and therefore unlikely to suffer a “painful property recession” – however forecasting the property market is never an exact science and only time will tell, after all this data is all historical – telling us what happened, nothing for certain ever tells us what will happen!

The Unconditional Blog

The impartial voice of the industry