The September 2011 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of September. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 95% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.
A full print version of the NZ Property Report – September 2011 is published below and is available for download (1.5MB) and distribution.
Summary of the market – September 2011
The property has now fully entered its traditional spring period; an active time with new listings appearing as the weather improves. This year the two uncertain variables of the Rugby World Cup and the forthcoming election certainly do not appear to be affecting the supply side of the market.
New listings continued to come onto the market – by no means a flood, but much in line with seasonal trends. The current rate of sale of properties has been growing steadily over the past 6 months and whilst in last couple of months this rate of sale has been at a higher rate than listings leading to a decline in inventory; during September this balance was redressed. As a consequence in the month of September the inventory of unsold houses rose slightly.
The key measure for the month is without doubt the asking price expectation, which rose again a significant $10,000 to $525,565. This is now 3.4% ahead of September last year and just 1% below the peak asking price set in April of this year.
The truncated mean asking price for all new listings in September rose significantly from $415,078 in August to $425,565. On a seasonally adjusted basis the asking price rose by 1.5% in the month indicating that there is an emerging confidence amongst sellers of stronger prices.
There is a seasonal trend that sees asking price rise in the early spring each year, this year that seasonal rise is somewhat more significant and could result in a new peak of asking price.
The level of new listings coming onto the market in September rose again in line with seasonal trends. A total of 11,117 new listings came onto the market representing a 5% year-on-year increase; on a seasonally adjusted basis the rise was a more modest 0.3%.
On a 12 month moving total basis the number of new listings in the past year totals 124,102 as compared 142,778 for the same period a year ago – a fall of 12%.
The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of September rose slightly. At the end of the month there were 46,299 houses, apartments and lifestyle properties on the market up from 44,689 in August and down from 51,035 a year ago. This current level of inventory represents 37.2 weeks of equivalent sales.
From the chart the decline in inventory has been halted and a plateau is emerging.
Regional Summary – Asking price expectations
The national asking price expectation rose significantly in September due to seasonal factors. Across the country this trend was seen in 17 of the 19 regions reporting a rise in the truncated mean asking price as compared to the recent 3 month average. The most significant rises were seen in the Auckland, Manawatu/ Wanganui, Canterbury and the West Coast all of which exceeded 5% growth as compared to recent 3 month average.
There were just 2 regions which experienced falls in asking price, Marllborough down 1.6% and Southland down a significant 7.9%.
Regional Summary – Listings
Significant rises were seen on the West Coast and in the Marlborough region. By contrast just 4 regions saw comparable year-on-year falls in new listings. Northland saw a significant 22% fall as compared to last year.
Regional Summary – Inventory
Whilst the overall state of the property market still favours sellers, the trend of the past month has seen some easing in some regions as new listing levels have outpaced sales. There are still 11 of the 19 regions of the country that have an inventory measured as weeks of equivalent sales below the long term average.
The 3 key metro areas of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch are all sitting with inventory well below long term average and have seen very active local pockets of property buying as listings in short supply have driven some active buyer activity.
Lifestyle property listings across the country rose in September by 15% as compared to August when judged on a seasonally adjusted basis the performance showed a 4% decline. There were 878 new listings added in the month with a truncated mean asking price of $599,813 which was up 10% on the recent 3 month average. Measured against September last year the asking price is up 14%.
New apartment listings returned to a more normal level last month from the peak level in August. A total of 492 new apartment listings came onto the market. The truncated mean asking price at $372,747 was up 13% on the prior month and 3% up on a year ago.
In the Auckland apartment market, which represents over 60% of the total market there were just 299 new listings which represented an 31% seasonally adjusted decline. In terms of asking price, the truncated mean in September was $336,707 up from the prior month record low of $302,425.
Property Price Index
Comparing the sale price of properties across the country to the asking price expectation is not a perfect comparison; however the trends tend to align. The benefit is that the data for asking price is of the market today, whilst the selling price is reflective of the market active between 4 and 6 weeks ago. The latest comparison is highlighted below:
Realestate.co.nz data is compiled from asking prices of new residential listings as they come onto the market via subscribers to the realestate.co.nz website. The Realestate.co.nz website currently has over 95% of all licensed real estate offices subscribing and providing all of their listings onto the website. The asking price is presented as a truncated mean price at a 10% interval.
REINZ: data is compiled from reported unconditional residential sales from all members of the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand representing all licensed real estate offices. The sale price is published as a stratified median house price and is developed in association with the Reserve Bank of NZ.
The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.
The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.
With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 95% of all offices.
With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.
In analysing the details of the 11,117 new listings in the month of September, a total of 169 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The land area of the property defines the categorisation of Lifestyle property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.
Background to Realestate.co.nz
Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).
The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:
Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 400,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.
nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.
Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.
Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.
Zoodle is a specialist property information website providing very detailed data on all residential properties in NZ. The database comprises over 1.6m properties with detailed specifications, map and local amenities. The site provides online reports for free and for purchase covering valuation and legal information to greatly assist the needs of property buyers and sellers.
The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.
The full NZ Property Report for September 2011 can be downloaded here (1.0MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.
Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for October 2011 will be published on this website on Tuesday 1st November 2011 at 10am.