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8

NZ Property Report – July 2012

Posted on: August 7th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The July 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of July. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 96% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – July 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.


 

Summary of the market – July 2012

The month of July is the midpoint of winter, traditionally the lowest season for new properties coming onto the market. Winter generally represents just 22% of the total listings in the year, yet the same 3 months represent traditionally 24% of sales demonstrating a key factor in the continuing tight property market especially in the main centres of the country.

Set against this backdrop the level of new listings could be seen as a ray of good news as the total number stayed up and did not fall significantly, representing as they did a 5% year on year increase and bringing to the market over 9,400 new listings.

There is though no doubt that the message to sellers appears to be getting through when it comes to price expectations. The latest asking price level for July is up 3.7% as against last year. The latest sales prices as reported by REINZ in their stratified mean sales price for June was of a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. On this basis sellers appear to be realistic in pricing in to their asking price a smaller reflection of the current level of house price appreciation.

Across the country the level of inventory of property on-the-market remains low as measured against historical average. The next 3 months heading out of winter and into spring will see the seasonal increase in activity in both listings and sales. The key issue will be to what extent the rise in new listings can take any heat out of the tight property markets in the major centers and other pockets of property activity across the country

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in July rose again following a slight dip in June. The July figure of $429,181 was up just 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from June. It represents a 5% year-on-year growth in the asking price as compared to July last year. The trend as seen in the chart opposite continues to show strength in seller expectation on the back of low listings and strong demand in the main centers.

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in July barely changed from June with 9,411 listings in the month from the 9,588 in June. This represents a 1% decline on a seasonally adjusted basis. As such this level of growth year-on-year is not matching the pace of sales growth, which year-on-year is over 18%.

On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 130,633 new listings have come onto the market since August 2011 as compared to 124,228 in the prior 12 month period, this represents a rise of just 5.2%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of July (44,729) was barely changed as compared to June (44,787) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales showed a slight rise from 29.8 last month to 31.0 weeks this month. This still leaves the level well above the long-term average of 40 weeks.

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose slightly in July by 0.8% to $429,181.

Across the 19 regions of the country asking prices showed a significant range of variances. The main 3 centres all showed rises with Auckland reporting a 3% increase marginally beaten by Wellington at 3.1%. Both of these centres though failed to set a new record high asking price, that was left to Canterbury which for the 3rd consecutive month set a new record at $393,433 up 0.9% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In total 9 regions reported asking price rises with the Coromandel the largest riser up 8.6% to $421,153. Of the 10 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there were 4 reporting greater than 5% with Northland and Nelson reporting over 10% falls, the latter seeing a 16.8% fall.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Overall listings volume was steady on a national basis, however across the regions there were more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 13 regions reporting year-on-year rises with Northland, Manawatu/Wanganui, Marlborough and West Coast all seeing increases of more than 20%.

Just 6 regions reported new listings lower than for July last year with Nelson being the region to report a fall off of 22% with just 165 listings reflecting the lowest level of new listings since the data reporting began at the start of 2007.

Of the main centres Auckland saw a healthy increase year-on-year of 10% whilst both Wellington and Canterbury saw new listings fall compared to July last year. The latter being a region continuing to be under pressure to meet buyer demand.

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

The market sentiment remains favouring sellers nationally with inventory of houses on the market below long term average based on equivalent rate of sale. However unlike in June when the picture was consistently in favour of sellers, some rebalancing has been seen.

Two regions (Taranaki and Wairarapa) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition three other regions (Coromandel, Manawatu/Wanganui and Southland) sit close to their respective long term averages indicating a more balanced market.

These 5 regions aside, the remaining 14 regions all remain seller’s markets with the greatest strain being felt in the 6 regions which are marked in dark blue which includes the main centres of Auckland and Canterbury which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

 

Lifestyle

Lifestyle property listings fell in July. A total of 704 listings came onto the market, up 12% year-on-year but down 13% as compared to June. The truncated mean asking price for these listings fell just 1.1% as compared to the recent 3 month average to $641,44 however up 1.2% from the June level of $634,09.

Across the country, Central Otago Queenstown lakes recorded a new high for lifestyle listings of $1,593,000. Around 23 new lifestyle listings a month are listed in the region, this high represents a 20% increase in the prior record high set just 3 months ago in April at $1,313,516.

 

Apartments

Listings for apartments in July were nearly identical to June with 455 being brought to the market, on a year-on-year basis listings were up 2.1%. The truncated mean asking price of new listings slipped to $356,762 in July from $381,578 in June, representing a 94% year-on-year decrease and down 6% on the recent 3 month average.

The Auckland apartment market however was stronger with 323 new listings coming onto the market, up 10% on July last year and up 12% on the month of June. The truncated mean asking price of new listings fell to $344,479 from $362,550 in June representing a 6% fall on the prior 3 months.

 

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 9,411 new listings in the month of June, a total of 315 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The land area of the property defines the categorisation of Lifestyle property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 400,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

 

The full NZ Property Report for July 2012 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for August 2012 will be published on this website on Saturday 1st September 2012 at 10am.

1

Online data driving a core change in real estate marketing

Posted on: August 6th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Online marketing

As the property market has awoken in the past year from its enforced slumber brought on by the Global Financial Crisis and the consequential recession, the attitudes and practices of the real estate profession has changed.

One of the noticeable changes is the attitude-to; and usage-of media for advertising property. Heading into the downturn in 2007 the usage of the web by home shoppers was in relative terms, already high – the annual Nielsen survey at that time found that over 70% of active home shoppers judged that the specialist real estate websites of Realestate.co.nz, Trade Me Property and AllRealestate (no longer in business) were the number one choice for home shoppers when looking for property information especially over the past 7 days.

At that time based on industry analysis, the total industry spent around $125 million per year on all forms of advertising. Despite the dominance of online searching for property the amount spent online only represented  just under $7 million, a mere 5% of the total industry spend. The lions share going to the print media – newspaper property supplements and specialist property magazines.

Now fast forward 5 years and the question is; have things changed?

Not surprisingly the active home shoppers judge even more highly the value of online search, now encompassing both the web and the mobile platform – that 70% figure above, has pushed out above 80+%. Most significantly though the attitude and behaviour of agents has changed. They are now using and valuing the web as an advertising medium not just as a classified listings site.

A noticeable change driving this, is the engagement the agents are having with statistics. Whereas 5 years ago agents would only (and in some people’s view “could only”) judge interest in property by how many phone calls they had had or how many people visited the open home; nowadays there would be many more active agents who quote the daily and weekly visitor traffic to each listing as well as analysing the make up such traffic, as to geographical source as is detailed on the realestate.co.nz website.

Such data was never, and will never be available for print media. The ads on the page generate awareness but have no tracking mechanism as to their value in generating interest or enquiry. Nowadays it is common to see vendors as clients are keeping a close watch on such stats and tracking them themselves as discussing them with the agent.

Recognising this growing focus on performance of advertising is driving a rapid uptake of online premium property advertising. From barely 5%, 5 years ago the representation of online advertising has already grown to around 12% of the total industry spend on advertising. That still means print media amounts to over $90m as compared to online at just $13m. It is very likely that expenditure online for real estate will grow significantly faster in the next 5 years to exceed 25% and power on towards 40% – the current level seen in Australia. That would see a diversion of some $35m flow from print media to the online world.

The proof of this hypothesis and analysis can be seen in all of the Featured and Showcased properties on the website at this time – vendors recognise the value in being more visible to ensure that they provide the best professional marketing to their clients. A great recent example of the effectiveness of online premium advertising is live on the site at this time. An almost perfect case study of 2 nearly identical brand new homes marketed on the same day by the same agent in the same suburb – one with premium advertising and one without.

Read the full details about these houses here..

 

 

 

0

Property Pulse – June 2012

Posted on: July 24th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Property Pulse - Regional Market Report

On a regular basis we publish a factsheet for each region of the country as well as a national report to provide an insight to the key numbers that detail the health of the property market across the country.

These reports for the month of June covers all 16 provincial regions as well as reports covering the 3 main metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. The Auckland report is divided up into each of the main metro areas (North Shore, Waitakere, Manukau as well as Auckland City).

Each factsheet provides the key numbers in table and chart form using the key statistics from the Real Estate Institute of NZ and Realestate.co.nz. This provides the number of property sales in the month, the median sales price for those property sales, the inventory of unsold properties on the market, as well as the number and the asking price expectation of new listings brought onto the market in the month.

 

 

Metropolitan Areas

Auckland City

North Shore

Waitakere

Manukau

Wellington

Chistchurch

Provincial Areas

Northland

Coromandel

Waikato

Bay of Plenty

Central North Island

Hawkes Bay

Gisborne

Taranaki

Manawatu / Wanganui

Wairarapa

Nelson

Marlborough

West Coast

Otago

Queenstown Lakes

Southland

 

National Property Pulse factsheet – June 2012

The national summary report for June is published using data from Realestate.co.nz and REINZ (Real Estate Institute of NZ).

Property sales across the country totalled 6,135 in the month showing a fall on a seasonally adjusted basis in June but at the same time representing a 17% increase as compared to a year ago. The inventory of unsold houses on the market at just below 30 weeks sets a new 4 year low and represents a turnaround from a rise in May reflecting how the rate of sale is outpacing the growth in new listings.. The current level of unsold properties on the market represents a very clear sellers market, well below the long-term average of 41 weeks of equivalent sales.

The stratified median house price for property sales in June was $383,095 which represents a 5% increase from June last year and sets a new record level for the country. The recent trend continues the steady increase for the past 18 months. The asking price expectation of new listings fell in June to $425,783 as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis, this represents a 2% increase from the asking price in June last year.

The level of new listings coming onto the market in June at 10,794 was down on the May total of 11,544, and up 18% as compared to a year ago.

 

0

Classic case study in online property marketing

Posted on: July 20th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Online marketing

It is very rare to be able to directly compare two properties in terms of marketing. As we all know every house is unique and every marketplace unique as the property market changes day-to-day as the pool of buyers and sellers is so small, the transactions so lengthy and the buying motivations so diverse.

Yet once in a while we see a unique set of circumstances that allow us to compare true online marketing in what is almost a laboratory-like environment.

Today there are 2 properties on the market in Auckland. They are brand new, having been built by a builder / developer. They are identical in almost every respect. They are physically next to each other. They were listed on the same day and are being marketed by the same agent and they are certainly attracting a lot of interest.

Now in terms of marketing this is where we see the real laboratory situation – these 2 houses are being marketed entirely online – not a single drop of press advertising. What is even more interesting is that one is being promoted heavily using the Realestate.co.nz 3 week Premium Property campaign – the other is a standard listing, with no upgrade advertising.

To be clear the upgrade campaign which costs $400 (inc GST) consists of a Feature Listing which provides top-of-search-result priority, 3 weeks of Showcase advertising which sees it promoted at the top of all search result pages for the suburb, surrounding suburbs and the Auckland region search as well as appearing on the home page. Additionally there are 2 Refreshes, these function as a top up – taking the listing back to the top of the search results and profiing the property again to prospective buyers through the daily email alerts. A very comprehensive campaign that is working hard to attract interest every day for 3 weeks to a global and local audience.

The proof in terms of return on this investment is in the numbers. The fact is online advertising lives or dies by the data – it is accountable and transparent and at Realestate.co.nz we are overly transparent. Every listing on the site displays the daily traffic to that listing on the web and now on mobile.

So what about those results – they are impressive!

The “base line” property has received 383 views in 16 days (as at 20th July). The agent tells me that they have already had a strong and credible level of email enquiries – more than satisfactory considering the online only campaign.

The upgraded property with the Premium advertising package has received over 1,942 views in 16 days (as at 20th July) – a 400% increase. The response level of email enquiries is twice that of the base line property. Vindication that online is now the core component of real estate marketing and reinforcing the view that premium property advertising is truly effective – the data is there to see.

Premium property advertising on realestate.co.nz can be booked through the listing agent of your property – talk to them about this very cost effective solution – a 3 week campaign costs $400 or less dependent on the scale of the campaign, also individual products as part of the package can be booked individually from just $59 (inc GST).

 

0

Pace of property sales continues to outpace listings

Posted on: July 18th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Property Pulse - Regional Market Report

Every quarter we step back from the monthly sales and listings data to look at the trends of these two key measures of the supply and demand for the property market as tracked by respective movements over the last quarter.

The picture for the second quarter of 2012 as measured against last year is that the growth in sales across the country is easing. That is not to say that sales themselves are easing, just that the rate of growth is slowing. A year ago in the April to June period 15,981 properties were sold, this year across the same period 18,986 properties were sold a rise of 19%. At the same time listings rose just 7% from 29,190 in April to June 2011 to 31,306 this year.

The chart shows the relative growth or decline of property sales (red bars) and new listings (blue bars) measured by 3 month period compared to the same period the prior year. The data covers the past 3 years. The overall picture from this total NZ property perspective is of the rise in sales volumes for the past 5 quarters since the second quarter of 2011. The listings volumes though slow to respond to this rise in sales have yet to show the scale of increase necessary to re-balance the market from the very strong sellers market now being experienced.

Across the country within the 19 regions the picture is fairly consistent of a still strong sales growth but with listings lagging behind keeping the pressure on the market. The exceptions to this trend can be seen in the Coromandel where sales are down as are listings and in Nelson where activity has slowed, although listings are in short supply.

Below are the charts for each of the 19 regions in alphabetical order – hover over each one to identify the region and then click through to see the full chart.

0

Auckland property market continues to heat up

Posted on: July 4th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Market News, Regional News

At the half way point in the year the data keeps on reinforcing the fact that the property market activity in Auckland is firmly on the rise.

Barfoot & Thompson – Auckland’s largest real estate company reported its June sales at 994 sales in the month, up 14% on June last year. The first 6 months of this year has seen Barfoot & Thompson sell 5,602 properties, up 18% over the same period last year.

The chart above certainly shows that 3 of the past 4 months have seen sales reach significant new highs. If you exclude the April month (which seems abnormally low) the total for March, May and June represents 3,405 sales up 20% on the same 3 months of last year – some very strong growth for Barfoot & Thompson.

Naturally being the largest real estate company in the Auckland market tends to see their data reflect the overall regional performance and this is certainly the case based on the more comprehensive REINZ data – the recent Property Pulse factsheets for Auckland (Total region, North Shore, Central, Manukau, Waitakere) provide this deeper analysis.

As has been reported in the monthly NZ Property Report the inventory of property for sale in Auckland has been falling for many months and now sits at a 4 year low. This is a function of rising sales, however the rise in new listings has not been keeping pace with sales. Taking Barfoot & Thompson data, again as stated earlier the first half of the year has seen a sales growth of 18% – the rise in listings for the same period showed only a 7% growth. The monthly data of new listings for Barfoot & Thompson is shown below.

This situation of new listings lagging the growth of sales can best be seen when stacking up the two sets of data (sales & listings) on the same chart. The data used in this chart below is the 3 month moving average and I have split the axis to emphasise the significant gap appearing between sales and listings – a situation not seen before over the past 5 years of data.

As Barfoot & Thompson cite in their market report this shortage of properties for sale, with buyers being quick to commit, (is) pushing up prices to an all-time high of $589,251. The chart below tracks this trend over the past few years and using a trend line certainly provides a guide to the scale of this trend.

 

 

7

NZ Property Report – June 2012

Posted on: July 1st, 2012 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The June 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of June. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 96% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

 

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – June 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.

 

Summary of the market – June 2012

It seems that just as we sensed a stabilizing of the property market in terms of new listings responding to the growing demand as was witnessed in May, the market has swung again and the ever present property shortage just got worse. Worse by not just a small measure! – the current level of inventory is down to the lowest witnessed in 4 years. Across the country there are no regions for which the state of the market could be assessed as even a slight buyers’ market.

This situation has arisen as a consequence of very strong sales in May – the seasonally adjusted total of 6,154 was up 26% on April. In total the first 5 months of this year show sales up 25%. At the same time listings over the same period are only up 9%. To put this into perspective the number of properties on the market across the country at this time is 43,691. If the rate of sale was to continue and no new listings were to be added that stock would be sold out by the last day of December this year. A year ago there were 47,738 properties on the market, at that time the then rate of sales would have meant that it would have taken until the middle of March next year to sell out all that stock.

The months of June, July and August are proportionally the lowest of the year both in absolute terms but also in relation to sales. This 3 month period represents 22.4% of the total listings for the year as opposed to 24% of the sales for the year. If this traditional seasonal situation is experienced this year and the rate of sale continues at current levels it is likely that the NZ property market will reach critically low inventory in absolute terms as the market moves into the key spring season in just 2 months’ time.

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in June eased from the record high of $435,887 set in May to a June level of $424,315. The month-on-month decrease of 2.7% takes the month level to 1.6% up on June last year. As can be seen from the chart the easing in the month does not significantly affect the trend line which continues to show a steady rise over the past 18 months.

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in June fell back to 9,689 from 11,544 in May. This represents a seasonally adjusted fall of 8% demonstrating that the sellers are still apprehensive of listing their properties despite the record low inventory.

On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 130,289 new listings have come onto the market since July 2011 as compared to 125,848 in the prior 12 month period, a rise of just 3.5%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of June (44,787) was down as compared to May (46,016) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales shows a significant drop from 35.7 last month to 29.8 weeks this month. This is one of the largest single month drops since the peak of the market for inventory in October 2010.

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers eased slightly in June by 2.7% to $424,315.

Across the 19 regions of the country the asking prices generally eased which considering the low inventory across the regions is seen as somewhat surprising. The biggest falls were seen in Taranaki, Northland and the Central Otago / Queenstown lakes area – all falls of 10% or greater on a seasonally adjusted basis. In total there were 11 regions reporting falls in asking price on a seasonally adjusted basis, with just 8 showing increases.

The largest regional increase was seen in Gisborne; a region which does witness volatility as a function of scale. Most notable region reporting an increase was Canterbury which showed a 1.6% seasonally adjusted increase to set a new record level of asking price expectation off the back of a record low level of inventory.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Listings volumes in June were light with a 6% year-on-year increase nationally and across the regions the majority showed modest gains.

The regions showing the tightest level of inventory – Auckland and Canterbury showed increases in new listings, however at 11% and 4% increase respectively these levels fail to alleviate the very low inventory.

Three regions – Taranaki, Manawatu / Wanganui and Wiararapa did see strong growth on a year-on-year basis, all up over 25%.

The Wellington market; which had recently seen some growing inventory reported a 6% fall year-on-year with just 691 new listings.

Coromandel reported the biggest fall, with just 156 new listings down 33% on June 2011.

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

The inventory of unsold homes on the market dropped quite significantly in June. The regional situation paints a clear and comprehensive picture with all regions experiencing a sellers’ market.

The key metro markets of Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury all show inventory below 20 weeks of equivalent sale – in the case of Canterbury and Auckland these are the lowest level going back over 4½ years at 16 weeks and 18 weeks respectively.

In addition to these 3 metro regions a further 6 regions are witnessing levels of inventory significantly below their long term average as indicated by the dark blue boxes on the chart.

There are just 5 regions where inventory is sitting just above the long term average – Central North Island, Gisborne, Marlborough, Southland and Taranaki. All of these have seen a fall in inventory in June and therefore are favouring sellers with an anticipation that the traditional winter shortfall of listings will continue through until September..

 

Lifestyle

Lifestyle property listings fell in June in line with the trend of total listing. A total of 808 listings came onto the market, down 2% year-on-year and down 17% as compared to May. The truncated mean asking price for these listings fell 3.1% as compared to the recent 3 month average to $631,579 – easing from the record high in asking price set in May.

Across the country, Northland recorded a record low of new listings with just 48 added in the month as compared to a long term average of 120. Strong growth was seen though in Otago and the Manawatu with year-on-year growth of 23% and 110% respectively.

 

Apartments

Listings for apartments eased in June from May with 439 being brought to the market, on a year-on-year basis listings were identical to June 2011. The truncated mean asking price of new listings slipped to $360,618 in June from $371,703 in May, representing a 9% year-on-year decrease and down 4% on the recent 3 month average.

The Auckland apartment market followed the national trend with 271 new listings coming onto the market, down just 1% from May and also down 6% from June last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings fell significantly to $319,979 from $382,064 in May representing a 11% fall on the prior 3 months.

 

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 95% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

In analysing the details of the 9,689 new listings in the month of June, a total of 193 listings have been excluded due to anomalies. The land area of the property defines the categorisation of Lifestyle property. The criterion is a property having in excess of 0.3 hectares and being situated outside metropolitan areas.

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 400,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

 

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for June 2011 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

 

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for July 2012 will be published on this website on Wednesday 1st August 2012 at 10am.

1

Don’t delay – get your property on the market

Posted on: June 28th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Market News

The message from the market of the past 12 months has been of a shortage of listings. The NZ Property Report back in May of last year foreshadowed this situation by stating that the market has reached a turning point, subsequent months have only reinforced this perspective, as property sales have remained strong with a consistent 20+% year-on-year growth as evidenced by the chart below which tracks the % growth / decline of the market over the past 4 years.

In the space of 12 months the inventory of property on the market (measured by the equivalent rate of sale in weeks) has gone from 47 weeks down to 36 weeks, a fall of over 20%. In actual numbers, the stock of property on the market in June last year was 47,738 whereas today it sits at 43,917 – the key difference is that this time last year around 161 properties were being sold a day whereas now it is up over 200.

The key question though has been, when would inventory start to rise, when would homeowners take note of the market signals and create a steady flow of new listings coming onto the market driven by this strong sellers’ market that has been present for close on a year. Back in February an analysis was undertaken to identify the likely trend for sales and new listings through 2012. At that time there was a belief borne of analysis that identified a 6 months lag between the trend of sales and the response of listings – sales being the demand leading indicator and listings being the supply lagging indicator.

The analysis foretold a picture of steadily rising new listings through this year as represented by the chart below (listings being represented by the red line measured off the left hand axis, sales being represented by the blue line measured off the right hand axis):

The forecast at that time anticipated that new listings would rise steeply from around 10,500 per month to around 12,000 per month on a moving average basis as the year progressed, thereby providing a match to the rise in sales which were anticipated to rise from 4,600 a month to just under 6,000 per month, again on a 12 month moving average basis.

However with 5 months of activity under our belt for the year it is valuable to see how the forecast is tracking. As far as sales are concerned the rise since the start of the year has tracked exactly as forecast and by the end of the year sales will likely slightly exceed the forecast of 6,000 a month on a 12 month moving average basis as shown int he chart below. However when it comes to listings things are not tracking to the forecast – the red line below shows a revised forecast reflective of recent levels of new listings and seasonal trends out to the end of the year.

 

This revised forecast now looks more like a year end position of just over 11,500 listings a month on a 12 month moving average basis.

This continued lag in the trend of new listings is likely to see a continued pressure on the market with continued shortages in specific local markets. That means the message appears to be the same as at the start of the year – if you are thinking of selling then now would look like a good time to get your property on the market. However I hear a lot of people saying – isn’t that the message the industry always wants the market to hear? – well of course; but I can assure you I am not speaking from the motivation of the real estate industry, I am purely trying to share insight from the available data and analysis which we derive from the website.

Part of the extrapolation of this revised forecast is the seasonal trend of new listings. This data which has been shared before (in fact 2 years ago in an article titled “Is summer really the best time to sell a property?“) is that the variance by month of new listings is more extreme than that for sales through the year. This fact is best showacsed in the chart below which tracks the % each month represents of annual sales and annual listings (based on 6 years worth of data).

The chart shows very clearly through the green bars those months when sales proportionally are higher than listings – the winter months; and in the red bars the months when listings are proportionally higher than sales – the summer months. The take out of this data is that potentially to list a house over the winter allows you to compete in a less cluttered market in which buyers are still active. This period extends from May through to August before that classic spring surge of new listings occurs.

So just maybe the smarter sellers and smarter agents can benefit from this insight and help homeowners choose the right time to sell and profit from greater insight based on data.

 

 

2

Energy efficiency as important as aesthetic features for house buyers

Posted on: June 27th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Green

There is a widely held opinion that the things that matter most to home buyers are gourmet kitchens and spectacular indoor / outdoor flow

The reality though is that this perception is changing, and energy efficiency to provide a warm and dry home is fast rising up the shopping list for buyers.

A survey undertaken by Realestate.co.nz in association with the Green Building Council for the Sustainable Housing Summit surveyed over 1,700 people as to their attitude to features seen as important when looking for a home to buy.

The number one feature that home buyers judged as most important was the orientation of the property to the sun. More than half of those surveyed regarded this as of “very high importance” with a further one third rating it as “high importance”. This compares to the importance of a gourmet kitchen, which scored just 16% on the scale of “very high importance” with 34% judging it as of “high importance”.

After orientation to the sun, the next most important feature was a high level of insulation. Scoring a 46% on the scale of “very high importance” and 35% of “high importance, insulation surpassed other aesthetic features such as a 3rd bedroom and off street parking, as well as the ubiquitous “indoor / outdoor flow”.

The full list of 18 features are detailed below on a mean importance score on a 1 to 5 scale. The features highlighted in red relate to energy efficiency and performance rating of a home.

Inspection Priorities

The survey went on to investigate to what extent buyers had inquired or inspected for aspects of environment / energy performance. In this case the 3 features that are “visible” and top-of-mind for buyers were inquired of in more than 70% of the time – presence of insulation, inquiring about heating and asking questions about dampness. Certainly buyers appear to be front-footed on these performance features that impact the warmth and comfort of the home.

On the other hand fewer asked questions about water an operating costs or any environmental features of the home each inquired about by less than a third of buyers.

 

Price Premium

Of those questioned who were looking to sell their property or had recently sold a staggering 88% believed that there was the potential for a price premium for properties that could demonstrate performance features such as energy, water and heating efficiency.

We then went on to seek to find out what type of features would most impact this perception of a price premium. The big 3 items were high levels of insulation, efficient heating and cooling system and double-glazing. Judged of lower opinion on a 1 to 5 importance rating score were low energy lighting, fixtures and fitting with low toxicity and or an independent rating certificate for a home’s performance.

This is the first such comprehensive survey undertaken into this area of home buying. It certainly has established that energy performance and the warmth and health aspects of a home are very much on the shopping list. As to what buyers look for as a signal, at this stage it appears to be very much around tangible items that can be seen and touched as opposed as to performance measures behind features. Time will tell if these performance measures move up the priority list and start to surpass that granite benchtop.

 

0

Property Pulse – May 2012

Posted on: June 19th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Property Pulse - Regional Market Report

On a regular basis we publish a factsheet for each region of the country as well as a national report to provide an insight to the key numbers that detail the health of the property market across the country.

These reports for the month of May cover all 16 provincial regions as well as reports covering the 3 main metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. The Auckland report is divided up into each of the main metro areas (North Shore, Waitakere, Manukau as well as Auckland City).

Each factsheet provides the key numbers in table and chart form using the key statistics from the Real Estate Institute of NZ and Realestate.co.nz. This provides the number of property sales in the month, the median sales price for those property sales, the inventory of unsold properties on the market, as well as the number and the asking price expectation of new listings brought onto the market in the month.

 

 

Metropolitan Areas

Auckland City

North Shore

Waitakere

Manukau

Wellington

Chistchurch

Provincial Areas

Northland

Coromandel

Waikato

Bay of Plenty

Central North Island

Hawkes Bay

Gisborne

Taranaki

Manawatu / Wanganui

Wairarapa

Nelson

Marlborough

West Coast

Otago

Queenstown Lakes

Southland

 

National Property Pulse factsheet

The national property pulse factsheet for May 2012 is published using data from Realestate.co.nz and REINZ (Real Estate Institute of NZ).

Property sales across the country totaled 7,175 in the month showing a significant rise on a seasonally adjusted basis in May as well as a 24% increase as compared to a year ago. The inventory of unsold houses on the market at 36 weeks has risen for the second month in a row after witnessing a steady and consistent fall of over a year. The current level of unsold properties on the market represents a very clear sellers market, well below the long-term average of 41 weeks of equivalent sales.

The stratified median house price for property sales in May was $381,950 which represents a 6% increase from May last year. The recent trend has been of a steady increase for the past 18 months. The asking price expectation of new listings rose in May to $453,887, a 5% increase from the asking price in May last year.

The level of new listings coming onto the market in May at 11,544 was up significantly from April, and up 17% as compared to a year ago.

 

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