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NZ Property Report – December 2012

Posted on: January 4th, 2013 | Filed in Featured, Market News, NZ Property Report

The December 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of December. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – December 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – December 2012

New Year starts with even fewer properties for sale, but an ease in asking prices.

The property market saw a further tightening of supply in December, more especially in the 3 major cities where the market remains very firmly as a sellers market. In overall terms the number of new listings coming onto the market in December was considerably lower than expected given the surge in November. Overall stocks of unsold homes fell to a 5 year low of 26.6 weeks of inventory (long term average = 39 weeks).

Auckland, Waikato and Otago were most affected by low inventory levels, with stocks of unsold homes falling to a new record lows of 13.9 weeks of inventory in Auckland, 31.5 weeks in Waikato, and 20.4 weeks in Otago, each well below their long term inventory levels.

Inventory levels across the country remain low and the market remains a firms sellers market across 16 of NZ’s 19 regions.

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in December eased from the record high of $446,277 set in November to a December level of $422,636. The month-on-month decrease of 5% takes the month level to 1% up on December last year.

As can be seen from the chart that the fall in the month does not significantly affect the trend line which continues to show a steady rise over the past 2 years.

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in December fell on a seasonally adjusted basis by 8.4%. A total of 8,482 new listings came onto the market representing a 3% year-on-year fall.

For the calendar year of 2012 a total of 132,243 new listings came onto the market as compared to 124,748 for calendar year 2011 – a rise of 6%. By comparison the prior years stats were 2007: 177,529; 2008: 163,488; 2009: 135,416; 2010: 138, 789. So as compared to the peak of the market on 2007 listings are down 26%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of December (42,513) was down, when compared to November (45,228). The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales fell to a 5 year low last month to 26.6 weeks last month. This fall was witnessed across 16 of the 19 regions.

With the rising rate of property sales, the inventory on the market has seen a significant drop over 2012 pushing it well below the long-term average of 39 weeks of equivalent sales.

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers fell by 5.3% in December to $422,636.

In the main centers, Auckland, and Christchurch reported a fall in the asking price in December. Auckland fell 1.5% to $588,088, and Canterbury fell 4.1% to $389,273. Wellington reported a rise in asking price of 0.8% to $434,843.

In total 5 regions reported asking price increases, and 3 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in Gisborne, Wairarapa , and Hawkes Bay with Gisborne showing the largest increase, up 33.9% to $335,905. Of the 13 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there were 6 that reported a falls of greater than 5% with Northland falling by 14.4% to $366,584, Central Lakes / Otago falling by 12.8% to $515,859, Central North Is falling by 9.9% to $332,649, Marlborough falling 8.7% to $362,071, West Coast fell 7.2% to $277,538 and Taranaki fell 6.3% to $281,856.

A new record high asking price was seen in Southland, rising by 3.6% to $264,028.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Overall new listings decreased on a national basis, as seen in the adjacent chart and across the regions there were slightly more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 11 regions reporting year-on-year falls, with significant falls (over 20%) seen in just 1 region, West Coast – falling by 35.1% when compared to December 2011.

Record low numbers of new listings were seen in West Coast, Auckland, and Wellington, putting more pressure on the already low number of listings in the main centers

8 regions reported higher new listings than December last year with Southland being the region to report the highest increase of 72.5% when compared to December 2011, Followed by Northland who saw a increase of 42.9%, and Coromandel who saw a increase of 35.8%.

Regional Summary – Inventory

The inventory of unsold homes on the market tightened significantly in December – Falling to a new record low of 26.6 weeks of equivalent sales from 29 weeks (on a seasonally adjusted basis).

Three regions (West Coast, Southland, and Central North Island) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition one other region (Taranaki) sits close to it’s respective long term average.

Market sentiment now favours sellers in 14 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 10 regions which are marked in darker blue, which includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

Auckland, Otago, and Waikato all reported record low numbers on Inventory (based on weeks of equivalent sales), with Auckland reporting an all time low of 14 weeks of equivalent sales.

 

Lifestyle

New lifestyle property listings fell across the country in December, dropping 23.7% when compared to November. A total of 813 listings came onto the market, showing a fall of 3.8% when compared to December last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was down by 4.8% as compared to the recent 3-month average to an asking price of $624,860 (up 13.6% when compared to December 2011). New record high asking prices were seen in 1 region in New Zealand (Hawkes Bay $765,375).

 

Apartments

New listings for apartments in December were down 6.1% on a year on year basis, with 325 being brought to the market. The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings fell 3.9% to $378,750 in December from $394,282 in November, and was down 4.5% on a year on year basis.

The Auckland apartment market had 163 new listings coming onto the market, down 17% when compared to December last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland fell to $352,786 (December) from $386,818 (November) representing a 5.7% fall on the prior 3 months.

 

For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 475,000 unique browsers, with over 115,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 25% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 122,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for December 2012 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for January 2013 will be published on this website on Friday 1st February 2013 at 11am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

2

NZ Property Report – November 2012

The November 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of November. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – November 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.2MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – November 2012

Inventory hits 5 year low and adds growing pressure to the property market

The message coming from the property market is that buyers are out and about and are keen to get into the market. This eagerness to buy is matched by the availability of attractive mortgage packages, but is not being met with sufficient supply of new property listings, which is continuing to drive the current sellers market.

Inventory levels across the country remain low and the market remains a firms sellers market across 15 of NZ’s 19 regions. Overall stocks of unsold homes fell to a 5 year low of 28.7 weeks of inventory (long term average = 39 weeks). Auckland was again the most affected by low inventory levels, with stocks of unsold homes falling to a new low of 15.5 weeks of inventory, well below the long term average of 31 weeks.

The REINZ Residential Market Statistics reports strong property sales with 6,640 properties sold in October, up 33% on a year ago, and yet listing flow is not matching with just a 1.5% year on year growth. This is why the inventory supply of the property on the market (as measured by rate of sale) has fallen 29% in the past year.

This confidence on the part of sellers is certainly supported by the rate of sale of property which is being shared by real estate agents in their daily contact with the public, and can also be seen in traffic to Realestate.co.nz which has seen an increase this year of 40%, with over 1,400,000 monthly visitor sessions across all sites (Google Analytics).

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings steadied, rising just 0.2% to high of $446,277 in November.

The trend (as seen in the chart opposite) very clearly shows an accelerating growth in asking price over the recent 12 months (as compared to 2010/11) and shows continued strength in seller expectations.

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in November continued to increase, with 13,571 listings in the month – up from 12,688 in October (7% increase). However listings were only slightly up by 1.5% on November last year.

On a 12 month moving total basis the number of new listings that have come onto the market in the last year totals 132,493, as compared to 124,940 in the prior 12-month period, this represents a rise of 6%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of November (45,228) was up, when compared to October (43,410). The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales fell to a 5 year low last month to 28.7 weeks last month. This fall was witnessed across 15 of the 19 regions.

With the rising rate of property sales, the inventory on the market has seen a significant drop over the last 12 months pushing it well below the long-term average of 39 weeks of equivalent sales.

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose just 0.2% in November to a new high of $446,277.

In the main centers, Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch all reported a fall in the asking price in November. Auckland fell 2.5% to $596,759, Wellington fell 4.2% to $431,259 and Canterbury fell 2% to $405,913.

In total 10 regions reported asking price increases, and 5 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in the Central North Island, Northland, Manawatu/Wanganui and Southland with Central North Island showing the largest increases, up 6.9% to $369,390. Of the 9 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was 3 that reported a falls of greater than 5% with Gisborne falling by 14.4% to $250,866, Hawkes Bay falling by 10.3% to $321,454 and Wairarapa falling 7.3% to $254,194

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Overall new listings increased on a national basis, as seen in the adjacent chart however across the regions there were slightly more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 11 regions reporting year-on-year rises, with significant increases (over 20%) seen in just 2 regions, the largest increases were in Gisborne (25%), and Otago (20%).

7 regions reported lower new listings than November last year with the Central North Island being the region to report the highest fall off of 35.8% when compared to November 2011, Followed by Northland who saw a fall of 21%

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

The inventory of unsold homes on the market tightened significantly in March – Falling to a new low of 28.7 weeks off equivalent sales from 33 weeks (on a seasonally adjusted basis).

Four regions (Southland, West Coast, Coromandel, and Wairarapa) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition one other region (Manawatu / Wanganui) sits close to it’s respective long term average.

Market sentiment now favours sellers in 14 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 8 regions which are marked in dark blue, which includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

 

Lifestyle

New lifestyle property listings fell across the country in November, dropping 4.9% when compared to October. A total of 1,066 listings came onto the market, showing a fall of 5.9% when compared to November last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was down by 1.5% as compared to the recent 3-month average to an asking price of $654,519 (up 13.9% when compared to October 2011). New record high asking prices were seen in 2 regions in New Zealand (Waikato – $675,581, and Central Otago/Lakes – $1,596,071).

 

Apartments

New listings for apartments in November down 9.5% on a year on year basis, with 484 being brought to the market. The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings fell 1% to $394,282 in November from $398,121 in October, but was still up 6.4% on a year on year basis.

The Auckland apartment market had 304 new listings coming onto the market, down 13.1% when compared to November last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose again to $386,818 (November) from $382,303 (October) representing a 2.2% increase on the prior 3 months.

 

For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 475,000 unique browsers, with over 115,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 25% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 122,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for November 2012 can be downloaded here (1.2MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for December 2012 will be published on this website on Wednesday 2nd January 2013 at 11am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

2

NZ Property Report – October 2012

The October 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of October. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – October 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.5MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – October 2012

The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity as compared to the past few years. The confidence amongst sellers bringing their properties onto the market has pushed up the (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price to a new high of $445,529 – the highest level since the collection of data began in 2007. This rise in asking price was noticeable right across the country, with Auckland reaching a new record high of $611,864, and Canterbury reaching a new high of $414,070.

November saw a good rise in new listings (up 12% on October 2011), and this rise has lead to some balancing of the property market in both Wellington and a number of provincial regions.

While inventory levels across the country balanced in October, the market remains a firm sellers market across 12 of NZ’s 19 regions. Overall stocks of unsold houses rose slightly to 33 weeks of inventory (long term average = 40 weeks). Both Auckland and Canterbury remain firmly sellers markets, with overall inventory levels continuing to remain well below long-term averages.

The next data for November will be interesting to review as to the final flush of new listings coming onto the market in Spring – November is traditionally one of the biggest listings months of the year. Last year that total was just over 13,000 – that at a time when inventory was considerably higher than today.

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings rose 4% (from September) to an all time high of $445,529 in October. This new record asking price level was up from the prior peak of $435,887 reached in May this year.

The trend as seen in the chart opposite continues to show strength in seller expectation and strong demand in the main centers.

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in October continued to increase, with 12,688 listings in the month – up from 11,514 in September (14% increase). October also saw big increases on last year, with an increase of 12% in listings.

On a 12 month moving total basis the number of new listings that have come onto the market in the last year totals 132,291, as compared to 124,503 in the prior 12 month period, this represents a rise of 6.3%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of October (43,921) remained stable, when compared to September (44,063) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales rose last month to 33.1 weeks last month. This rise was witnessed across 17 of the 19 regions. But overall inventory levels still fell well below the long-term average of 39 weeks.

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose 3.8% in October to a new peak of $445,529. This exceeds the prior peak of $435,887 reached in May this year.

Following the new record high for the national asking price figure, both Auckland and Canterbury also posted record highs in October. This is the first time that the seasonally adjusted mean asking price has topped the $600,000 mark in Auckland ($611,864), and the $400,000 mark in Canterbury ($414,070).

In total 15 regions reported asking price increases, and 7 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in the Central Otago/Lakes, Canterbury, Gisborne, Manawatu/Wanganui, Southland, and Auckland regions, with Central Otago/Lakes showing the largest increases, up 18% to $621,200 (the highest seen since November 2007). Of the 4 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was just 1 reporting a fall greater than 5% with West Coast seeing a fall of 6.5%.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Overall new listings increased on a national basis, as seen in the adjacent chart however across the regions there were slightly more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 16 regions reporting year-on-year rises, with significant increases (over 20%) seen in 10 regions. The largest increases were in Taranaki (68%), Wairarapa (40%), Hawkes Bay (34%) and Gisborne (31%)

Only 3 regions reported lower new listings than October last year with Northland being the region to report the highest fall off of 17.4% when compared to October 2011.

 

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

The inventory of unsold homes on the market eased in October, rising 9% from September to 33 weeks of stock, and shows the market re-balancing.

This re-balancing is however not occurring in the two major markets of Canterbury and Auckland where the inventory continues to remain low.

Five regions (Taranaki and West Coast) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition four other regions (Central North Island, Southland, and Otago) sit close to their respective long term averages indicating a more balanced market.

Market sentiment continues to favour sellers in the remaining 10 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 3 regions which are marked in dark blue, which includes the main metro areas of Auckland, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

 

Lifestyle

New lifestyle property listings had another boost across the country in October, rising a further 18% when compared to September. A total of 1,121 listings came onto the market, showing an increase of 12% when compared to October last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was up by 7% as compared to the recent 3-month average to a record high asking price of $689,375 (up 13% when compared to October 2011). This record high was reflected across 4 regions in New Zealand (Northland, West Coast, Canterbury, and Central North Island).

 

Apartments

New listings for apartments in October were up 1.5% when compared to September, with 484 being brought to the market (on a year-on-year basis listings were up 9%). The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings fell slightly to $398,121 in October from $399,489 in September, but was still up 8% on the recent 3-month average.

The Auckland apartment market followed the national trend with 300 new listings coming onto the market, up 7.1% when compared to October last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose again to $382,303 (October) from $366,057 (September) representing a 9.8% increase on the prior 3 months.

 

For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 450,000 unique browsers, with over 115,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 25% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 117,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for October 2012 can be downloaded here (1.5MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for November 2012 will be published on this website on Monday 3rd December 2012 at 9am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

4

NZ Property Report – September 2012

Posted on: October 1st, 2012 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report, Uncategorized

The September 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of September. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – September 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.5MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – September 2012

The property market has now fully entered its traditional spring period, an active time in the market with new listings appearing as the weather improves. After finishing winter strongly, the market is indicating that we will continue to see good levels of activity in the market in the lead up to the end of the year.

The start of spring has seen steady levels of new listings coming onto the market, falling in-line with the levels of listings seen in September last year (with a 7.6% increase on August, bringing the market over 11,500 new listings).

Inventory levels across the country remain low, and the market remains a firm sellers market across 15 of NZ’s 19 regions, and overall stocks of unsold houses fell slightly to 30.5 weeks of inventory (long term average = 40 weeks). Auckland is the most affected by low inventory levels, with stocks of unsold houses falling to a new low of 17.4 weeks of inventory, well below the long-term average of 32 weeks.

The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity. The confidence amongst sellers bringing their properties onto the market stabilised in September, with the truncated mean asking price steadying at $429,312.

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in September fell slightly. The September figure of $429,312 was down just 0.3% year-on-year on a seasonally adjusted basis as compared to September last year.

The trend as seen in the chart opposite continues to show strength in seller expectation on the back of low listings and strong demand in the main centers.

 

New Listings

The level of new listings coming onto the market in September increased from August with 11,514 listings in the month – up from the 10,365 in August (7.6% increase). Seasonal trends of new spring listings remains true, showing a small 0.3% increase in listings when compared to September last year.

On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 130,915 new listings have come onto the market since October 2011 as compared to 125,102 in the prior 12 month period, this represents a rise of just 4.7%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of September (44,063) remained stable, when compared to August (44,291) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales fell slightly last month to 30.5 weeks last month. Auckland showed another new record low number of unsold houses in September with levels falling to 9,567 or just 17.5 equivalent weeks of sales (Auckland long term average = 32 weeks)

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers fell slightly in September by 0.3% to $429,312.

In the main centres, both Wellington and Canterbury saw increases in September, with Wellington increasing 3% to $447,388. The asking price in Auckland witnessed a slight fall in September (down 1.8% to $574,798).

In total 10 regions reported asking price increases, and 4 regions saw rises greater than 5%. The most significant rises were seen in the Coromandel, Central North Island, Taranaki, West Coast and Nelson regions, with Nelson showing the largest increases, up 10% to $455,705. Of the 9 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there was just 1 reporting a fall greater than 5% with Manawatu / Wanganui seeing a fall of 7.4%.

 

Regional Summary – Listings

Overall listings volume was steady on a national basis, however across the regions there were slightly more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 11 regions reporting year-on-year rises with Southland reporting an increase of 26.6%, and Marlborough seeing the largest increase of listings (up 38.5%).

8 regions reported lower new listings than September last year with Central Otago / Lakes being the region to report the highest fall off of 35.2% when compared to September 2011.

Canterbury continues to see new listings fall again compared last year and remains under pressure to meet buyer demand.

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

Market sentiment continues to favour sellers nationally with inventory of unsold houses on the market remaining well below long term average based on equivalent rate of sale.

Two regions (Taranaki and West Coast) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition three other regions (Central North Island, Southland, and Otago) sit close to their respective long term averages indicating a more balanced market.

These 5 regions aside, the remaining 14 regions all remain seller’s markets with the greatest strain being felt in the 4 regions which are marked in dark blue which includes the main metro areas of Auckland, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

 

Lifestyle

Lifestyle property listings had a boost across the country in September, rising by 29% when compared to August. A total of 951 listings came onto the market, showing an increase of 8.3% when compared to September last year. The truncated mean asking price for these listings was up by 1.8% as compared to the recent 3-month average to $649,343. When measured against September last year the asking price is up 8.3%

 

Apartments

Listings for apartments in September were down 9.8% when compared to August, with 477 being brought to the market (on a year-on-year basis listings were down 3%). The truncated mean asking price of new apartment listings rose to $399,489 in September from $349,192 in August, representing an increase of 10.2% on the recent 3-month average.

The Auckland apartment market followed the national trend with 264 new listings coming onto the market, down 11.7% when compared to September last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland rose to $366,057 (September) from $334,130 (August) representing a 5.5% increase on the prior 3 months.

 

For Media Enquiries, please contact: Paul McKenzie, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 450,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for September 2012 can be downloaded here (1.5MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for October 2012 will be published on this website on Thursday 1st November 2012 at 1pm.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

1

Sticky: Nielsen survey shows surge in homebuyers using mobile

The free mobile app created by Realestate.co.nz that gives users real-time, location-aware information about homes for sale and rent has now been downloaded over 100,000 times. The milestone coincides with the release of the 2012 Nielsen Real Estate Market Report, which shows a huge surge in homebuyers using mobile property search applications on smartphones.

The report revealed that 27 per cent of homebuyers who responded to the survey have used a property search mobile app in the last year, jumping up significantly from just 7 per cent recorded in 2011.

The report also revealed that seven out of ten of those homebuyers are using the Realestate.co.nz app.

The significance of these two factors can’t be understated. It shows the app is truly changing the way New Zealand home shoppers look for and view homes, and how they interact with property and agents whilst on the go. The Realestate.co.nz app gives home shoppers a birds-eye view of any area in New Zealand, showing properties that are for sale or rent.  By simply tapping on the ‘Near Me’ button, browsers are taken to a street map that shows properties within a one kilometre radius of their current location.

The app – available on both iOS for the iPhone and iPad as well as Android devices – has become an essential accessory for Kiwis searching for local properties for sale or rent. And we are aware of several buyers who have found and purchased their home for sale solely through using the mobile app. People are turning up to open homes guided by the app with a schedule fully planned of where they are going and what they are going to check out.

For more information on the Realestate.co.nz smartphone app, visit http://www.realestate.co.nz/apps

By Paul McKenzie – Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

2

NZ Property Report – August 2012

Posted on: September 6th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, NZ Property Report

The August 2012 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of July. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.

A full print version of the NZ Property Report – August 2012 is published below and is available for download (1.7MB) and distribution.

Summary of the market – August 2012

The property market finished winter strongly and is showing all the signs of gearing up for a strong Spring season. The market is still firmly parked as a sellers market, with inventory levels across the country remaining low. Good levels of new listings have started to come onto the market, with a 10% increase on July, bring to the market over 10,300 new listings.

The next 3 months usually represents the peak season for house sales, and the current indication is that we will continue to see good levels of activity in the market in the lead up to the end of the year.

The property market continues to show signs of confidence and heightened activity. The confidence amongst sellers bringing their properties onto the market stabilized in August, with the truncated mean asking price rising slightly to $430,443 when compared to the last 3 months. This slight rise in asking price was noticeable in 12 of the 19 regions, with Auckland pushing a new high of $585,482.

 

Asking Price

The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings in August rose slightly. The August figure of $430,443 was up just 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from July. It represents a 1.7% year-on-year growth in the asking price as compared to August last year.

The trend as seen in the chart opposite continues to show strength in seller expectation on the back of low listings and strong demand in the main centers.

 

New Listings

 

The level of new listings coming onto the market in August increase from June with 10,365 listings in the month – up from the 9,411 in June. This represents a 6.7% increase on a seasonally adjusted basis.

On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 130,878 new listings have come onto the market since September 2011 as compared to 124,544 in the prior 12 month period, this represents a rise of just 5.1%.

 

Inventory

The level of unsold houses on the market at the end of August (44,291) was down slightly as compared to July (44,729) as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis. The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales barely changed last month to 30.9 weeks last month. Auckland showed a new record low number of unsold houses in August with levels falling to 9858, or just 18 equivalent weeks of sales (Auckland long term average = 32 weeks)

 

Regional Summary – Asking price expectations

The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers rose slightly in August by 0.3% to $430,443.

Across the 19 regions of the country asking prices showed a significant range of variances. The star of the months was Auckland, reporting a 1.8% increase and hit a new record seasonally adjusted average asking price of $585,482. The asking price in the other main centres of Wellington & Canterbury witnessed a fall last in August, with Canterbury showing the lowest asking price since January this year (down 4.8% to $374,732).

In total 12 regions reported asking price increases with Northland the largest riser up 8.4% to $388,790. Of the 7 regions witnessing asking price falls on a seasonally adjusted basis there were 3 reporting falls greater than 5% with the biggest falls seen in Taranaki (down 6.7% to $280,560) and the Central North Island (down 6.1% to $325,982).

 

Regional Summary – Listings

 

Listings started to flow back into the market last month

Overall listings volume was steady on a national basis, however across the regions there were more regions showing increases than falls.

There were 16 regions reporting year-on-year rises with Central North Island, Gisborne, Taranaki, Wairarapa, and Otago reporting increases of over 20%, with Wairarapa seeing the largest increase of listings (up 40.1%).

Just 3 regions reported new listings lower than August last year with Bay of Plenty being the region to report the highest fall off of 15.4% when compared to August 2011.

Canterbury saw new listings fall again compared to August last year and remains under pressure to meet buyer demand.

 

Regional Summary – Inventory

Market sentiment still favours sellers nationally with inventory of houses on the market remaining well below long term average based on equivalent rate of sale.

Two regions (Taranaki and Southland) showed increases in inventory of homes on the market taking them above their respective long-term average. In addition three other regions (Central North Island, Nelson, and Otago) sit close to their respective long term averages indicating a more balanced market.

These 5 regions aside, the remaining 14 regions all remain seller’s markets with the greatest strain being felt in the 3 regions which are marked in dark blue which includes the main centres of Auckland and Canterbury which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.

 

Lifestyle

Lifestyle property listings remained low in August. A total of 737 listings came onto the market, down slightly by 3% year-on-year but up 4.7% as compared to July. The truncated mean asking price for these listings fell by just 0.8% as compared to the recent 3 month average to $638,698 and also fell 0.4% below the June level of $641,444.

Manawatu / Wanganui was the only region to record a record high for lifestyle listings of $533,671 (up 34.6% on August 2011). On average 67 new lifestyle listings a month are listed in the Manawatu / Wanganui region.

 

Apartments

Listings for apartments in August were up 16.3% when compared to July, with 529 being brought to the market, on a year-on-year basis listings were down 15.9%. The truncated mean asking price of new listings slipped again to $349,192 in August from $356,762 in July, representing a decrease of 5.6% on the recent 3 month average.

The Auckland apartment market followed the national trend with 385 new listings coming onto the market, up 19.2% on July 2012 and down 16.7% when compared to August last year. The truncated mean asking price of new listings in Auckland fell to $334,150 from $344,479 in July representing a 9.2% fall on the prior 3 months.

 

Notes:

Truncated mean

The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures.

The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.

 

Methodology

With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 96% of all offices.

With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.

 

Seasonally adjustment

The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.

 

Background to Realestate.co.nz

Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and six of the largest real estate companies (50%).

The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:

Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 450,000 unique browsers, with over 110,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ.

nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 5,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 11,000 lifestyle properties.

Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 27,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.

Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 4,300 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.

The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 95% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ.

The full NZ Property Report for August 2012 can be downloaded here (1.7MB pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations.

Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for September 2012 will be published on this website on Monday 1st October 2012 at 10am.

By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

1

Property Pulse – July 2012

Posted on: August 22nd, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Property Pulse - Regional Market Report

On a regular basis we publish a factsheet for each region of the country as well as a national report to provide an insight to the key numbers that detail the health of the property market across the country.

These reports for the month of July covers all 16 provincial regions as well as reports covering the 3 main metropolitan regions of Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. The Auckland report is divided up into each of the main metro areas (North Shore, Waitakere, Manukau as well as Auckland City).

Each factsheet provides the key numbers in table and chart form using the key statistics from the Real Estate Institute of NZ and Realestate.co.nz. This provides the number of property sales in the month, the median sales price for those property sales, the inventory of unsold properties on the market, as well as the number and the asking price expectation of new listings brought onto the market in the month.

 

 

Metropolitan Areas

Auckland Region

Auckland City

North Shore

Waitakere

Manukau

Wellington

Chistchurch

Provincial Areas

Northland

Coromandel

Waikato

Bay of Plenty

Central North Island

Hawkes Bay

Gisborne

Taranaki

Manawatu / Wanganui

Wairarapa

Nelson

Marlborough

West Coast

Otago

Queenstown Lakes

Southland

 

National Property Pulse factsheet – July 2012

The national property pulse factsheet for July 2012 is published using data from Realestate.co.nz and REINZ (Real Estate Institute of NZ).

Property sales across the country totaled 5,907 in the month showing a very small fall on a seasonally adjusted basis in July but at the same time representing a 20% increase as compared to a year ago. The inventory of unsold houses on the market rose slightly to 31 weeks reversing what had been a steady decline, the level is though well below the long term average of 40 weeks. This level of unsold properties on the market represents a very clear sellers market..

The stratified median house price for property sales in July was $380,425, which represents a 5% increase from July last year. There was a small fall from June which itself was a new record level for the country. The recent trend continues the steady increase for the past 18 months. The asking price expectation of new listings rose in July to $429,181 as measured on a seasonally adjusted basis, this represents a 4% increase from the asking price in July last year.

The level of new listings coming onto the market in July at 10,685 was down slightly on the June total of 10,794, but up 19% as compared to a year ago.

 

 

 

0

Expectation for house price rises, needs to be seen in the context of recent falls

Posted on: August 15th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured

The ASB in their quarterly Housing Survey say that a net 51% of respondents expect house prices to rise, with their expectation of a rise of 4% in the year ahead.

This expectation would see a continuation of price rises which have been seen since the beginning of 2011, 18 months ago. At that time the Stratified mean price (as published by REINZ in association with the Reserve Bank) was $351,450, in July of this year it was up to $380,425 a rise of 8% over 18 months which equates to an annual rise of 6% which makes the ASB forecast an logical extrapolation of the current trend as seen in the chart below.

A increase of 4% would see the Stratified mean price rise to $395,650 which would see it a 4% increase from the peak of the market in November 2007 – certainly a 4% increase over 5 years does not keep in line with inflation, in fact it shows a 10% decline in real dollar terms.

The following charts track the latest Stratified mean sales price across the 3 main centers. The Auckland market has already seen Stratified sales prices break through the prior peak of the market back in July 2007 and are now some 4% ahead of that level. The same is seen in Christchurch were prices are up 3.5% on the October 2007 peak. Wellington though is going against the trend where the current Stratified mean sales price is down 4.2% from the peak of October 2009 which was only marginally above the peak of September 2007.

 

3

NZ’s fascination for property comes alive through reality TV (Updated 20 Aug)

Posted on: August 14th, 2012 | Filed in Featured, Media commmentary, Website news

The Australian reality series “The Block” is certainly being warmly embraced by the kiwi’s who are according the weekend papers camping out in their lounges on Wednesday and Thursday nights to watch the latest weekly challenges for the willing and able group of 4 couples. Ratings have seldom been as good as for this series with audience shares around 30% of 25 -54 year olds.

The format I don’t need to explain, nor do I need to reference the fact that the competition seems to be more about couples and the reality TV component than it is ever about DIY, but that is not important – people love to watch others toil in DIY work just as they have done, only this time they can laugh and kick back on the couch.

The series is well advanced and in real life the houses are finished and prospective buyers are being given private tours. As the properties are now “on the market” our role at Realestate.co.nz as the official website of the real estate industry really comes into its own to promote and advertise these 4 properties online and on mobile.

We decided we would do all we could to assist the sellers find the best buyers so we have upgraded all of the 4 property listings on our site on behalf of our customer Bayleys Real Estate Ltd to a full premium campaign to maximise profile and traffic online. In addition we have featured the properties on our Facebook page with links to the listings and the opportunity for comments and likes to provide feedback.

As you can see from the extent of the viewings of these properties online – they are very popular with over 8,000 views in just the first 4 days across the 4 houses, that total was surpassed with over 9,000 views on Monday the 13th alone!

In addition to promoting these houses we thought it would be fun to do a poll to see just how people are judging the houses and the teams. The poll was set up on Friday on our Facebook page and is already showing some clear favoritism towards Libby & Ben who are way out in the lead in terms of votes.

The properties go to auction live on TV3 on Thursday 6 September – over the next 4 weeks we will track the performance of the viewings for each house as a surrogate for the voting; we will also combine this with the Facebook poll to come up an aggregate scoreboard which we will update regularly.

Here is the result after 5 days – a clear lead for Libby & Ben. Check back on this page over the next days to see how things progress.

Update 15th August

The performance of these listings is demonstrating the connection between TV and social media. In the space of just 2 days the viewing total of the 4 houses has gone from 17,499 to 31,487 – an extra 14,000 viewings in just 2 days! The NZ Herald ran an article on this phenomenal interest headlined with me quote of ‘mindblowing’ in the context of this scale of traffic. Key to driving this incremental traffic is the profile we have given these properties on Facebook and the comments that are engaging people around discussing these properties.

As the weeks go by more and more of the images of these houses are being posted to the website of Realestate.co.nz. As well as over 20 photos per listing we also now showcase interactive floor plans. Check out the latest images:

This incremental traffic and the added votes on our poll on Facebook has not made a huge difference to the voting sentiment of the public of NZ. As the chart below shows Libby & Ben are still way out in front – although slipping 2 percentage points, Rachael and Tyson have edged up by 1 percentage point to snap at the heals of Ginny & Rhys for the #2 spot.

Update 20th August

The weekend saw a further surge in viewings for these properties taking the total viewings to over 41,000 since the listings went live. Further voting on the Facebook poll covering both overall and the views of the kitchen has taken Libby & Ben further out in front, now with 45% of the sentiment from the public. This gain has come at a cost to Sarah & Richard (slipping from 17% to 15%) and Ginny & Rhys (21% to 19%). Buoyed along by a surge of sentiment Rachel & Tyson have increased from 20% to 22% to overtake Ginny & Rhys to take second place.

 

 

2

NZ Property market outlook continues to brighten

Posted on: August 13th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Market News

The latest data released last week by the Real Estate Institute for the month of July shows that the property market is reasonably active. That is the best description “active” rather any inference of a boom – Helen O’Sullivan the CEO rightly stated that “the current market should be seen as recovering rather than ‘booming'”.

The fact is that sales of properties across NZ in July were up 20% as compared to the same month last year with 5,907 unconditional sales booked in the month by licensed real estate agents. The first 7 months of 2012 has seen 42,464 sales as compared to 34,511 for the same 7 months of 2011, an increase of 23%. The chart below tracks the annual trend of sales growth or decline over the past 5 years. Having had 15 months of yer-on-year increases we are at that stage of seeing increases on increases on a year-on-year basis which really shows a strong trend.

The most important perspective to appreciate when examining the scale of property sales as a measure of the overall market is the historical backdrop. The chart below tracks the NZ property market from 1993 to date, measuring on the red line the 12 month moving total of property sales using the right hand axis. The blue line shows the total value of transacted sales tracked on a 12 month basis with the left hand axis scale.

 

The key take-away from this chart is just how low the property market fell between 2007 and 2009 – 105,00 down to 55,000. The current 12 month average is tracking at 69,000 with an expectation of 72,000 by the end of the year. This total now marginally surpasses the “dead-cat bounce” mini-peak of January 2010. In terms of the value of transactions this is now running at an annualised rate of $30.64 billion up 40% from the lowest point in February 2009 at $21.91 billion.

The other perspective on property sales is to reference sales to the existing stock of houses in NZ. The key factor here is just how slow new house builds have been over recent years, having said that the current estimated stock at 1.56 million is up 14% since 2000 the equivalent of an extra 189,000 homes. The chart below tracks the percentage of houses sales on an annualised basis against the stock of houses.

 

I think this chart more than any other ably demonstrates that the NZ Property market is in nothing like in a boom – the current rate of sale equates to 4.5% of all dwellings per year far below the long term average transaction level of 6%.  The market is staging a recovery as the general population regain a sense of confidence in the general economy and are clearly being influenced with what are very attractive interest rates. However we would need to see another year of 20% growth on top of this year’s 20% growth before we would be anything like approaching the long term average level of sales.

 

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