The November 2013 NZ Property Report published by Realestate.co.nz provides an insight into the state of the New Zealand property market as measured by the supply side of the property market over the month of November. The key measures of the market analysed in the report are the number of new listings, the asking price expectation for those new listings and the level of inventory of unsold houses on the market at this time. The report is compiled from data captured by the website and represents close to 97% of all property movements in the NZ market as managed by licensed real estate agents.
A full print version of the NZ Property Report – November 2013 is published below and is available for download (2.1mb) and distribution.
Summary of the market – November 2013
Inventory levels recover slightly, as national asking price remains close to record high
Across the country the level of inventory of property on the market eased slightly in November to 24.8 weeks, but remains low when measured against the historical average. The next 2 months of summer will see a seasonal drop in listings, so while New Zealand inventory levels lifted in November, this lift may be short lived.
The number of new listings coming to the market in November was down 5% on the same time last year. The figure of 13,311 follows strong listing numbers in October. This decrease in new listings was particularly apparent in Auckland, where the number of new listings is not keeping up with demand, falling by 7.3% from October.
Asking prices eased slightly in November, to $478,931 (down just 0.6% from the record high figure seen in October, but still up 7% year on year). In the main centres, Auckland, Wellington and Canterbury asking witnessed a slight fall in November to $659,300 (Auckland), $457,701 (Wellington), and $436,823 (Canterbury). All three regions sit close to their respective asking price peaks.
The seasonally adjusted truncated mean asking price for listings remained high, rising 7% to $463,142 (from November 2012), and down just 0.6% from the record high set in October.
The trend as seen in the chart opposite, continues to show strength in seller price expectation, on the back of low listings, and strong demand in the main centres
The level of new listings coming onto the market in November fell slightly to 13,311 from 13,978 in October. This represents a fall of 5%, and is also down 2% when compared to November last year.
On a 12 month moving average basis a total of 132,291 new listings have come onto the market since December 2012 as compared to 132,493 in the prior 12 month period, a fall of just 0.2%.
The level of unsold homes on the market at the end of November (40,366) remained well down as compared to November last year (45,228), a drop of 11%.
The inventory as measured in terms of equivalent weeks of sales was slightly higher than last month, with 24.8 weeks of stock now available.
The market remains firmly a seller’s market; with 16 of the 19 regions showing inventory levels that are well below long term averages.
Regional Summary – Asking price expectations
The national (seasonally adjusted) truncated mean asking price expectation among sellers fell by 0.6% in November to an asking price of $478,931.
Record high asking prices were also seen 1 region in New Zealand; Waikato, where the average asking price reached $389,886 (up 8% on November 2012).
In total 11 regions saw asking price increases, with 6 regions reporting asking price increases greater than 5%. West Coast reported the largest increase, up 12.8% from October to $289,609, followed by Gisborne which rose by 10% to $303,959, and Taranaki, which rose 9.7% to $328,250.
Of the 8 regions witnessing asking price falls there were 2 that reported a falls greater than 5%, Coromandel fell by 13% to $440,210, and Hawkes Bay fell 8% to $345,375.
Regional Summary – Listings
New listings fell across most of the country in November with just 7 of the 19 regions seeing an increase on a year-on-year basis.
Of the 7 regions that reported lower new listings than November last year the most significant drop in listings was seen in Central North Island, falling 23.7%, and Southland, which fell by 19.6%
There were 12 regions reporting year on year increases with Northland reporting the biggest increase of listings (up 30%), followed by Nelson, where a 9% increase was recorded.
In the main centers, Auckland, and Wellington saw a fall in new listings. Auckland reported 4,432 new listings, down 4% from November 2012, and Wellington reported 1,110 new listings, down 4% from last year. Canterbury, saw a 6% rise in listings, with 1,566 new listings coming on the market.
Regional Summary – Inventory
The inventory of unsold homes on the market recovered slightly in November to 25 weeks of equivalent sales.
Market sentiment continues remains firmly in favour of sellers in 16 regions, with the greatest strain being felt in the 12 regions that are marked in darker blue. This includes the main metro areas of Auckland, Wellington, and Canterbury, which remain under pressure from low listings as measured against sales activity.
Three regions (Central North Island, and Taranaki, and Southland) showed an increase in inventory of homes on the market, taking them above their respective long-term average.
For Media Enquiries, please contact:
Paul McKenzie, National Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 618 537
Or Phillip Dunn, Acting CEO, Realestate.co.nz | +64 21 807 640
Truncated mean The monthly asking price for new listings presented in this report utilises the measure of ‘truncated mean’. This measure is judged to be a more accurate measure of the market price than average price as it statistically removes the extremes that exist within any property market that can so easily introduce a skew to traditional average price figures. The truncated mean used in this report removes the upper 10% and the lower 10% of listings in each data set. An average or mean of the balance of listings is then calculated.
Methodology With the largest database of properties for sale in NZ from licensed real estate agents, realestate.co.nz is uniquely placed to immediately identify any changes in the marketplace. The realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report is compiled from new listings coming onto the market from the more than 1,000 licensed real estate offices across NZ, representing more than 97% of all offices. With an average monthly level of over 10,000 new listings, the realestate.co.nz NZ Property Report provides the largest monthly sample report on the residential property market, as well as a more timely view of the property market than any other property report. The data is collated and analysed at the close of each month, and the Report is compiled for the 1st day of the following month. This provides a feedback mechanism as to the immediate state of the market, well in advance of sales statistics, which by the very nature of the selling process can reflect activity with a lag of between 2 and 4 months.
Seasonally adjustment The core data for the NZ Property Report is seasonally adjusted to better represent the core underlying trend of the property market in NZ. In preparing this seasonally adjusted data Realestate.co.nz is grateful for the assistance of the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) who use an X12 ARIMA methodology to calculate seasonally adjusted data.
Background to Realestate.co.nz Realestate.co.nz is the official website company of the real estate industry of New Zealand, it is an industry owned web business providing online marketing services to the real estate industry. The shareholders in the business comprise the REINZ (50%) and five of the largest real estate companies (50%). The business operates a portfolio of websites all focused to specialist sectors of the real estate market:
Realestate.co.nz is the heart of the business and is focused to the residential property market. It features the most comprehensive selection of property for sale and rent across NZ. The website attracts a significant monthly audience of over 590,000 unique browsers, with over 130,000 of those visiting from countries outside of NZ. In addition Realestate.co.nz receives over 30% of all traffic to property listings from mobile devices, including their iPhone and Android applications. To date these applications have been downloaded by over 185,000 users making the app the most popular property app in NZ.
nzFarms is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of farms and agricultural businesses on the market across NZ. At this time it features around 3,000 listings for all types of farms and agricultural land as well as over 10,000 lifestyle properties.
Prime Commercial is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of commercial property for purchase or lease on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 25,000 listings for all types of properties – retail, commercial, industrial and investment properties.
Prime Business is a specialist website presenting the most comprehensive selection of businesses for sale on the market across NZ. At this time it features over 3,500 listings for all types of businesses – retail, tourism, wholesale as well as franchise opportunities.
The web business of Realestate.co.nz site is the most comprehensive real estate web operation in NZ, currently hosting over 110,000 listings, covering this portfolio of residential property for sale and rent, commercial property for sale and lease, rural properties and farms, as well as businesses for sale. With a subscriber base of over 1,000 offices, the company represents over 97% of all listings from licensed real estate agents in NZ. The full NZ Property Report for November 2013 can be downloaded here (2.1mb pdf document). Additionally the raw data is accessible here as an Excel spreadsheet enabling anyone to analyse the raw data and establish any trends or observations. Usage rights are governed under attribution to the source of the data being Realestate.co.nz. The next NZ Property Report for November 2013 will be published on this website on 7th January 2013 at 11am.
By Paul McKenzie, Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz
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