The Unconditional Blog

The impartial voice of the industry

 

Archive for the ‘Buying / Selling a home’ Category

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Sticky: Nielsen survey shows surge in homebuyers using mobile

The free mobile app created by Realestate.co.nz that gives users real-time, location-aware information about homes for sale and rent has now been downloaded over 100,000 times. The milestone coincides with the release of the 2012 Nielsen Real Estate Market Report, which shows a huge surge in homebuyers using mobile property search applications on smartphones.

The report revealed that 27 per cent of homebuyers who responded to the survey have used a property search mobile app in the last year, jumping up significantly from just 7 per cent recorded in 2011.

The report also revealed that seven out of ten of those homebuyers are using the Realestate.co.nz app.

The significance of these two factors can’t be understated. It shows the app is truly changing the way New Zealand home shoppers look for and view homes, and how they interact with property and agents whilst on the go. The Realestate.co.nz app gives home shoppers a birds-eye view of any area in New Zealand, showing properties that are for sale or rent.  By simply tapping on the ‘Near Me’ button, browsers are taken to a street map that shows properties within a one kilometre radius of their current location.

The app – available on both iOS for the iPhone and iPad as well as Android devices – has become an essential accessory for Kiwis searching for local properties for sale or rent. And we are aware of several buyers who have found and purchased their home for sale solely through using the mobile app. People are turning up to open homes guided by the app with a schedule fully planned of where they are going and what they are going to check out.

For more information on the Realestate.co.nz smartphone app, visit http://www.realestate.co.nz/apps

By Paul McKenzie – Marketing Manager, Realestate.co.nz

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Expectation for house price rises, needs to be seen in the context of recent falls

Posted on: August 15th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured

The ASB in their quarterly Housing Survey say that a net 51% of respondents expect house prices to rise, with their expectation of a rise of 4% in the year ahead.

This expectation would see a continuation of price rises which have been seen since the beginning of 2011, 18 months ago. At that time the Stratified mean price (as published by REINZ in association with the Reserve Bank) was $351,450, in July of this year it was up to $380,425 a rise of 8% over 18 months which equates to an annual rise of 6% which makes the ASB forecast an logical extrapolation of the current trend as seen in the chart below.

A increase of 4% would see the Stratified mean price rise to $395,650 which would see it a 4% increase from the peak of the market in November 2007 – certainly a 4% increase over 5 years does not keep in line with inflation, in fact it shows a 10% decline in real dollar terms.

The following charts track the latest Stratified mean sales price across the 3 main centers. The Auckland market has already seen Stratified sales prices break through the prior peak of the market back in July 2007 and are now some 4% ahead of that level. The same is seen in Christchurch were prices are up 3.5% on the October 2007 peak. Wellington though is going against the trend where the current Stratified mean sales price is down 4.2% from the peak of October 2009 which was only marginally above the peak of September 2007.

 

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NZ Property market outlook continues to brighten

Posted on: August 13th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Market News

The latest data released last week by the Real Estate Institute for the month of July shows that the property market is reasonably active. That is the best description “active” rather any inference of a boom – Helen O’Sullivan the CEO rightly stated that “the current market should be seen as recovering rather than ‘booming'”.

The fact is that sales of properties across NZ in July were up 20% as compared to the same month last year with 5,907 unconditional sales booked in the month by licensed real estate agents. The first 7 months of 2012 has seen 42,464 sales as compared to 34,511 for the same 7 months of 2011, an increase of 23%. The chart below tracks the annual trend of sales growth or decline over the past 5 years. Having had 15 months of yer-on-year increases we are at that stage of seeing increases on increases on a year-on-year basis which really shows a strong trend.

The most important perspective to appreciate when examining the scale of property sales as a measure of the overall market is the historical backdrop. The chart below tracks the NZ property market from 1993 to date, measuring on the red line the 12 month moving total of property sales using the right hand axis. The blue line shows the total value of transacted sales tracked on a 12 month basis with the left hand axis scale.

 

The key take-away from this chart is just how low the property market fell between 2007 and 2009 – 105,00 down to 55,000. The current 12 month average is tracking at 69,000 with an expectation of 72,000 by the end of the year. This total now marginally surpasses the “dead-cat bounce” mini-peak of January 2010. In terms of the value of transactions this is now running at an annualised rate of $30.64 billion up 40% from the lowest point in February 2009 at $21.91 billion.

The other perspective on property sales is to reference sales to the existing stock of houses in NZ. The key factor here is just how slow new house builds have been over recent years, having said that the current estimated stock at 1.56 million is up 14% since 2000 the equivalent of an extra 189,000 homes. The chart below tracks the percentage of houses sales on an annualised basis against the stock of houses.

 

I think this chart more than any other ably demonstrates that the NZ Property market is in nothing like in a boom – the current rate of sale equates to 4.5% of all dwellings per year far below the long term average transaction level of 6%.  The market is staging a recovery as the general population regain a sense of confidence in the general economy and are clearly being influenced with what are very attractive interest rates. However we would need to see another year of 20% growth on top of this year’s 20% growth before we would be anything like approaching the long term average level of sales.

 

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Auckland property market continues to heat up

Posted on: July 4th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Market News, Regional News

At the half way point in the year the data keeps on reinforcing the fact that the property market activity in Auckland is firmly on the rise.

Barfoot & Thompson – Auckland’s largest real estate company reported its June sales at 994 sales in the month, up 14% on June last year. The first 6 months of this year has seen Barfoot & Thompson sell 5,602 properties, up 18% over the same period last year.

The chart above certainly shows that 3 of the past 4 months have seen sales reach significant new highs. If you exclude the April month (which seems abnormally low) the total for March, May and June represents 3,405 sales up 20% on the same 3 months of last year – some very strong growth for Barfoot & Thompson.

Naturally being the largest real estate company in the Auckland market tends to see their data reflect the overall regional performance and this is certainly the case based on the more comprehensive REINZ data – the recent Property Pulse factsheets for Auckland (Total region, North Shore, Central, Manukau, Waitakere) provide this deeper analysis.

As has been reported in the monthly NZ Property Report the inventory of property for sale in Auckland has been falling for many months and now sits at a 4 year low. This is a function of rising sales, however the rise in new listings has not been keeping pace with sales. Taking Barfoot & Thompson data, again as stated earlier the first half of the year has seen a sales growth of 18% – the rise in listings for the same period showed only a 7% growth. The monthly data of new listings for Barfoot & Thompson is shown below.

This situation of new listings lagging the growth of sales can best be seen when stacking up the two sets of data (sales & listings) on the same chart. The data used in this chart below is the 3 month moving average and I have split the axis to emphasise the significant gap appearing between sales and listings – a situation not seen before over the past 5 years of data.

As Barfoot & Thompson cite in their market report this shortage of properties for sale, with buyers being quick to commit, (is) pushing up prices to an all-time high of $589,251. The chart below tracks this trend over the past few years and using a trend line certainly provides a guide to the scale of this trend.

 

 

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Seven tips to selling your house

Posted on: July 3rd, 2012 | Filed in Agent Tips, Buying / Selling a home, Online marketing

Buying and selling a house is not, and should not be considered an art – such an important investment / asset should deserve the value of scientific and mathematical analytics.

“Seven tactics for selling your home”  (Redfin – a US based real estate company) outlines facts borne of scientific data and analysis that should be read and understood by all property owners and agents alike. The data might be from the US, but the relevancy to NZ I don’t think would be disputed. Applying a local interpretation provides this summary.

salesperson.jpg

1. Don’t overprice your property – clearly the age old dilemma of the vendors expectations being beyond the rational desire of the buyer to pay what they believe the property is worth. But did you know the impact of a protracted sale on the ultimate price?

2. Set your price to show up in web searches – as cited in an earlier post “So what price is that property on the site” pricing to search criteria on websites is critical

3. Best day to list a property – the US research says the best day to list is Friday, classically this is when the weekly magazines come out, but did you know that most searches on realestate.co.nz are undertaken on a Monday lunchtime – listing on the weekend with an email alert on Monday morning can coincide with the peak searching at work on Monday mornings

4. Stay engaged – pretty logical as your property is your most valuable asset so applying the time to the selling process would be a good investment in your time

5. Market the property online – with over 80% of real estate searches starting online this is logical. Added to this is the fact that each listing on realestate.co.nz is viewed for an average of 77 minutes per month; with the website recording well over 100,000 hours of viewings per month by over 240,000 unique viewers

6. Don’t move out of your house when selling – the US research shows a reduce price results as a perception of a distressed vendor

7. Don’t list when others around you may be suffering mortgagee sales – a panicked marketplace is not the time or the place to sell

Clearly there are many more – presentation, decoration, photography etc etc, but it is compelling to see the statistics supporting these key 7 tips.

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Energy efficiency as important as aesthetic features for house buyers

Posted on: June 27th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Green

There is a widely held opinion that the things that matter most to home buyers are gourmet kitchens and spectacular indoor / outdoor flow

The reality though is that this perception is changing, and energy efficiency to provide a warm and dry home is fast rising up the shopping list for buyers.

A survey undertaken by Realestate.co.nz in association with the Green Building Council for the Sustainable Housing Summit surveyed over 1,700 people as to their attitude to features seen as important when looking for a home to buy.

The number one feature that home buyers judged as most important was the orientation of the property to the sun. More than half of those surveyed regarded this as of “very high importance” with a further one third rating it as “high importance”. This compares to the importance of a gourmet kitchen, which scored just 16% on the scale of “very high importance” with 34% judging it as of “high importance”.

After orientation to the sun, the next most important feature was a high level of insulation. Scoring a 46% on the scale of “very high importance” and 35% of “high importance, insulation surpassed other aesthetic features such as a 3rd bedroom and off street parking, as well as the ubiquitous “indoor / outdoor flow”.

The full list of 18 features are detailed below on a mean importance score on a 1 to 5 scale. The features highlighted in red relate to energy efficiency and performance rating of a home.

Inspection Priorities

The survey went on to investigate to what extent buyers had inquired or inspected for aspects of environment / energy performance. In this case the 3 features that are “visible” and top-of-mind for buyers were inquired of in more than 70% of the time – presence of insulation, inquiring about heating and asking questions about dampness. Certainly buyers appear to be front-footed on these performance features that impact the warmth and comfort of the home.

On the other hand fewer asked questions about water an operating costs or any environmental features of the home each inquired about by less than a third of buyers.

 

Price Premium

Of those questioned who were looking to sell their property or had recently sold a staggering 88% believed that there was the potential for a price premium for properties that could demonstrate performance features such as energy, water and heating efficiency.

We then went on to seek to find out what type of features would most impact this perception of a price premium. The big 3 items were high levels of insulation, efficient heating and cooling system and double-glazing. Judged of lower opinion on a 1 to 5 importance rating score were low energy lighting, fixtures and fitting with low toxicity and or an independent rating certificate for a home’s performance.

This is the first such comprehensive survey undertaken into this area of home buying. It certainly has established that energy performance and the warmth and health aspects of a home are very much on the shopping list. As to what buyers look for as a signal, at this stage it appears to be very much around tangible items that can be seen and touched as opposed as to performance measures behind features. Time will tell if these performance measures move up the priority list and start to surpass that granite benchtop.

 

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Mortgagee stress in the NZ Property market?

Posted on: June 11th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Media commmentary, Money Matters

We seem to have a difference of opinion according to the newspapers recently. The NZ Herald had a front page story titled “Mortgagee sales: Landlords feel pain” in which the author quoting the latest mortgagee sales stats from Terralink, says that these figures “challenge” the stats from Realestate.co.nz that “claims” that foreclosures are declining.

So what is the truth. Are mortgagee sales declining or increasing and which data is right? The fact is both companies and both sets of data are right. It all comes down to the understanding of the different data sources and the interpretation of that data.

To provide clarity let me present both sets of data.

Mortgagee Sales

Terralink International provide a report detailing the sale of properties classed as mortgagee sales. They collect this data from LINZ (Land Information NZ) which as a government organisation is charged with registering title changes. Terralink has been analysing this data and identifying sales as those where the vendor is a bank or financial institution. That being the case when a bank has re-possessed a property where the owner has forfieted the right of ownership when the mortgage payments have been failed to be paid.

Terralink report that in 2011 2,265 properties were sold where the vendor was a bank or financial institution. On a quarterly basis the sales are shown below. The last reported monthly stats from Terralink were reported in June 2010.

As the data shows the peak of sales were in 2009 with a total of 3,024 in the year. Certainly the first 3 months of 2012 was up significantly on the first quarter of 2011 or 2010.

An important note in regard to this data set is that sales are recorded at the date the title change is registered with LINZ. In the normal course of property transactions legal title change must be registered within 3 months from settlement date (although many lawyers these days file online transfers on the day of settlement), therefore it is quite possible that sales recorded by Terralink from LINZ data relates to properties advertised as mortgagee sales anything up to 6 months earlier, even as far as 9 months earlier. That could mean that within the 524 sales for Q1 2012 there could be property that came up for mortgagee sale anytime in the second half of 2011 potentially.

 

Mortgagee Listings

Realestate.co.nz has been recording the data of mortgagee listings on its website since the beginning of 2007. The data has been presented in regular reports on Unconditional. The data is the weekly number of properties advertised on the realestate.co.nz website which the listing agent has defined the property as being sold as a mortgagee sale or auction. There is an obligation for the agent to detail that the property is the subject of a mortgagee sale and often it appears in the headline. In the main properties being sold as mortgagee are sold quickly; as the bank, once listing such a property does not want a protracted process. This uniform listing period ensures the data of listings is a statistically valid view of properties being placed on the market by banks and other financial institutions.

As the chart below shows the number of listings being marketed as mortgagee sales at any one time peaked in 2009 at over 400 properties. Subsequently the number of listings has seen a steady decline.

As of today there are 203 properties on the market classified as mortgagee sales. As a point of note the search on the site for the word mortgagee shows 238 listings, the difference lies in the fact that some of these listings are for land rather than properties.

The key point in regard to the stats on the realestate.co.nz website is that this is recording the active market today for new listings, listing which may be completed in the next 2 months and then registered with LINZ and then appear in the Terralink stats later in the year.

 

Alignment of the two sets of data

Hopefully it is clear that both sets of data are accurate, but one shows a leading indicator of listings, whilst the other shows the following indicator of sales.

There is a point of correlation though. Looking at the last 2 months of 2011 it can be seen that there was a spike of new listings. At the time I referred to this as the continuation of the mortgagee hangover. The deduction at the time was that the increase in activity in the property market could well have fueled confidence amongst banks to list properties that they had on their books. This flush of listings may well have been transacted early in the new year as recorded sales registered with LINZ in the first 3 months of 2012, to therefore be included in the latest Terralink data.

Looking at the latest weekly data comparing week by week to prior years shows the relative activity in new listings of mortgagee properties by agents this year.

 

 

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Inflation and the impact on property prices

Posted on: May 29th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured

There’s usually a quiet period late in the month, when there are few new facts to share on the state of the NZ real estate market – this I think provides a great opportunity to share a little-discussed aspects of property price movements. The truth about INFLATION!

We all know about inflation, and a lot of us are aware that in the dim and distant memory we had to contend with annual inflation rates of well over 10% – look for a moment at this chart of NZ inflation over the past 40 years – peaking at close to 20% per annum. Think of that in terms of price increases every couple of weeks by retailers trying to keep up with the cost of goods.

When it comes to house prices we all seem to think or know that prices rise faster than inflation in the long term. Take for example this property recently featured for sale in Auckland – the background article says it was purchased  by the current owners in 1964 for £5,600 – today it has a rateable value of over $2.5m!

Out of interest the Reserve Bank online Inflation calculator states that ” a basket of goods and services that cost £5,600 in Q1 1964 would have cost the equivalent of $215,944.06 in Q4 2011″. That example would certainly support the view that property prices in the long term outpace inflation.

 

Inflation though has been somewhat more benign over the past decade – averaging just 2.7%. However this “low” level of inflation still has an effect in reducing the value of goods over time. Despite this low inflation of the past 12 years, $100 in 2000 would be worth $138.12 in today’s money – the power of compounding certainly adds up quickly.

So what has been the impact of inflation on property prices over the past 5 years since the property market fell from the heady heights of the middle of the last decade? As a base the REINZ / Reserve Bank Stratified Price index shows in the chart below that closing in on the 5th anniversary of the market fall the current property sales prices in April are still some 1.4% below the peak of November 2007.

 

Now by using the Reserve Bank inflation calculator you can see the true value of property prices adjusted for inflation over this 5 year period. The chart below shows the monthly Stratified median Price Index adjusted to today’s $ value.

Property prices are in fact 12.8% lower than they were when the market peaked in late 2007. At the lowest point in January last year they had fallen in inflation adjusted terms by over 16% from the peak of the market. What this means is that if you had bought a property in September 2007 at what was then the median price in NZ of $379,075; if the price of that property had increased in value by inflation alone over the close-to 5 year period it would today be worth $430,481. By comparison the median house price in NZ in April was $375,575. A difference of close to $55,000 – sobering to see!

In order to provide some assistance to home owners wondering what impact inflation has had on property appreciation over the past decade this chart below provides what I like to think of as a ready-reckoner. All you need to do is refer along the horizontal axis as to when you purchased your house and then see how much appreciation or depreciation has occurred to NZ property prices over that period. This refers to the median price of property sold each month, clearly property of differing condition and in different parts of the country would fair differently over the period, but never-the-less it does provide a useful guide.

So if you bought in January 2003 removing the impact of inflation the average NZ property will have appreciated in value by 45%, whereas sadly of you purchased a property in January 2008 the average NZ property will have depreciated by 7%.

What this also means as illustrated on the chart by the dotted vertical line, is that property purchased nearly 7 years ago in September 2005, when adjusted for inflation over the period has not really appreciated at all.

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Financial stress in the property market appears to be easing as mortgagee listings decline

Posted on: May 14th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured

A key measure of the financial stress of the property market over the period of the past 5 years has been the incidence of properties succumbing to mortgagee sales; that situation where the owner has to accept that the potentially long held dream of a family home or of an investment portfolio of properties slips away as the financial burden becomes too far for the regular salary or rental income stream to support.

We appear from the data tracked at realestate.co.nz to finally be seeing an end to the mortgagee stress in the market. Whilst the property publications still feature the distressed black and white photo montage of current mortgagee properties the fact is the number of properties in NZ advertised as mortgagee sale or auction is on the decline and is edging closer to a level not seen since before the global financial crisis.

As of this week the number of mortgagee properties on the market has dropped below 190 – this compares to 260 a year ago and over 380 in May of 2009. These numbers might still seem significant, however when seen in the context of the current property market with just under 50,000 residential properties on the market this total represents less than one half of one percent of all listings.

In fact even at the peak of the distress in the property market the total never exceeded 1% – this compares to well over 10% of all US properties being sold over the recent 5 years being the subject of a foreclosure as the Americans term mortgagee sale.

However as is always the case scrape a little below the surface and you start to see some interesting facts. What appears to be a steady declining trend is actually a tale of 2 markets.

The chart below tracks the Auckland market for mortgagee listings as compared to the rest of NZ. As can be seen back in 2008/2009 at the peak of the financial crisis Auckland in total represented over half of all the mortgagee properties on the market.

Through 2010 and 2011 that percentage has been declining and has accelerated significantly in 2012 to the extent that Auckland today represents just 1 in 5 of all the mortgagee listings on the market. Whilst in contrast the financial pressure which can lead to mortgagee sales is still being felt outside of Auckland as the scale of listing for mortgagee properties has not changed that much over recent years.

Looking at specific regions; the Bay of Plenty stands out with 13% of the national total of all mortgagee listings as compared to just 4% at the peak of the market; Similarly Manawatu/Wanganui today represents 7% of all the national listings of mortgagee properties as compared to just 2% 4 years ago. Northland now has one in ten of all mortgagee listings as compared to one in twenty 4 years ago.

The pressure may be easing in the financial burden of mortgage sales but clearly it is not easing in an evenly distributed way across the country.

 

 

 

 

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Are we about to see another property price bubble?

Posted on: March 14th, 2012 | Filed in Buying / Selling a home, Featured, Media commmentary, REINZ Monthly data

The weekend opinion piece by Bernard Hickey published on the NZ Herald (Bank blows bubbles) and on Interest.co.nz certainly captured attention with both media platforms receiving extensive comments from engaged readers.

The article proffers the opinion that the actions of the Reserve Bank back in 2003, in deciding to continually cut the Official Cash Rate from 5.75% to 5.0% and the hold it there despite the frothy economy was pivotal in driving the bubble in house prices seen to occur over the ensuing 4 years; during which time period as Bernard states “houses prices almost doubled”.

The fact is that the Stratified median house price in January 2003 was $203,550; just under 5 years later in November 2007 the market peaked with a price of $380,900 an 87% increase.

Bernard then goes on to state that the current activity by the Reserve Bank to hold the OCR at the current rate of 2.5% is “history repeating itself, or more colourfully put – deja vu all over again?” and given the recent rise in property sales, he goes on to forecasts that we are likely to see another property price bubble in the coming years.

To be clear Bernard is not saying that we will see an 87% increase in house prices over the next 5 years, he simply seeks to challenge the assumptions of the Reserve Bank and seek to highlight “worrying early signs” such as the latest report by Barfoot & Thompson for February and the BNZ – REINZ survey both citing “increasingly bubbly sounds” from the property market. The latest data from REINZ for February sales would seem to support this view.

This supposition deserves some deeper analysis of the underlying numbers (which are public data from REINZ) to bring some perspective to the discussion.

The chart below uses the REINZ / Reserve Bank Stratified median house price data and compares the prior 5 years to the start of 2003 against the most recent 5 year period as cited by Bernard, to see if the circumstances leading up to this sense of deja vu are really that similar.

The chart shows the 5 year period of 1998 to 2003 in the blue line with the left hand axis, tracked against the most recent 5 years of Stratified median house prices to February 2012 with the red line on the right hand axis. Matching these 2 separate 5 year periods provides a valid comparison allowing for the very different scales.

What is clear from the chart is that property prices in the run up to the decisions made by the Reserve Bank in 2003 were already on the rise; and had been for over 20 months. In fact based on the point 22 months back on the chart (April 2001) the stratified median house price was $176,775. From then on prices started to rise and by the zero month on the chart representing Feb 2003 they were already up by 17% before the actions of the Reserve Bank.

By comparison the recent 5 year period showed a turning point around 28 months ago (Oct 2009) when prices had been rising and leveled off, from that point in October 2009 right up until this month of February 2012 prices have risen by less than 1%. In fact the rise has been only $575.

The chart below shows the consequential impact as judged by Bernard as to the actions of the Reserve Bank through the 4 years following 2003.

Pretty striking – the question is, will the current market take off to such an extent? Based on the current data is looks less likely I would suggest.

There is no doubt that the heat in the NZ property market at this time is in Auckland and to analyse this region separately can add further insight to this discussion, therefore below is the paired charts for Auckland on the same perspective as the national charts above.

The interpretation I would make from this view of Auckland would be that the trend is mirroring the national perspective with a faster rate of increase, much as was seen in the 1998 to 2006 period. That would seem to support the view that we are likely to see some price increase in Auckland and across the country in the coming 5 years but not of the scale of the 2003 to 2007 period.

 

Fundamental Economics

In discussing the likelihood of a property price bubble it is critical not to ignore fundamental economics – the laws of supply and demand. On the supply side of the market there are currently constraints with a shortage of listings and inventory of property on the market below long term average as has been detailed in the NZ Property Reports through most of the second half of last year, however this is likely to ease as more listings are coming onto the market as cited by the rise through February. Sadly the parallel data for supply side for the period of 1998 to 2006 is not available. It is only with the advent of the web as the primary means of marketing real estate have we accessed to such data through realestate.co.nz.

On the demand side the rate of sales of property is the best surrogate and the chart below provides a compelling reason to believe that “things are different this time”!

The red line tracks the current 12 month moving average sales of properties over the past 5 years matched to sales of the 5 years leading up to 2003. This is very significant. Currently sales of properties are running at a rate of just over 61,000 per year whereas leading up to 2003 and the actions of the Reserve Bank at the time, they were running at over 100,000 a year, that is a difference of 63%.

The froth in the property market which catapulted the house price bubble from 2003 to 2007 was more likely to have been driven by the highly active demand from buyers anxious to “get onto the property money train” at that time, certainly influenced by low interest rates, but not solely the action in cutting OCR. Property sales had started ramping up well before 2003, in fact sales started to rise in 2001 and kept on rising to peak at over 120,000 per year in 2004.

At this time sales are rising – certainly not as fast nor at such a frothy level. That would seem to be a very compelling part of the picture to better understand the likelihood for another property price bubble – not that likely.

 

UPDATE (3.30pm 14th March)

This article has been published on interest.co.nz as an opinion piece to complement the original opinion piece by Bernard – for this I am very grateful.

A comment has just been posted by “Basil Brush III”

“How about adjusting those wonderful graphs for the relative inflation rates of each period. I would bet Alistair Helm cannot do that and make the same statement”

Well I love a challenge so for Basil Brush III here is the key chart adjusted for inflation over the period – looks to me like the argument is even stronger that we are not likely to see a bubble!

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